Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: 2025 Conference Championship Games

Scott Kacsmar23/01/2026 - 11:49 am

DENVER, CO - DECEMBER 21: Jarrett Stidham #8 of the Denver Broncos looks on from the bench during the fourth quarter against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Empower Field at Mile High on December 21, 2025 in Denver, Colorado. — (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)

The 2025 NFL playoffs have some interesting matchups for Championship Sunday between the Patriots-Broncos and Rams-Seahawks. We’ve already done full previews for the NFC and AFC games, so let’s get to our NFL picks for the two games below.

In recapping our Divisional Round picks, we actually pulled out a parlay win (+211) in the Seahawks’ 41-6 blowout win over the 49ers. The Houston sack parlay (+167) hit before halftime too. But our parlays for underdogs and touchdown scorers both went 1-for-4, and the Buffalo SGP unfortunately fell victim to the Brandin Cooks play in overtime going down as an interception instead of him completing the process.

Each Friday, we will share seven NFL picks for the weekend. These can be prop picks, spreads, totals, alternate lines, moneylines, teasers, same game parlays, etc. We like to think outside the box instead of just telling you to play the moneyline of big favorites. You can play any of the picks as singles or parlay your favorite choices together. I do tweet winners from time to time before island games kick off, by the way.

1. Patriots at Broncos: Run Jarrett, Run!

These are supposed to be ranked in order of confidence, so I’m not sure why I’m saying a Jarrett Stidham rushing prop is my most confident pick of the week. It’s really not. But I’m also trying to spice things up and pick different markets for both games, and the others are parlays, and I don’t want to do too many singles on just this one game as I do like a lot of different things for it actually.

DENVER, CO - JANUARY 17: Denver Broncos quarterback Jarrett Stidham (8) warms up before the AFC Divisional Round game against the Buffalo Bills at Empower Field at Mile High on January 17, 2026 in Denver, Colorado. — (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

But yeah, I like Jarrett Stidham to rush for over 14.5 yards, and I might tease that line to 30+ (+400 at FanDuel) for some SGP action.

Stidham has some mobility. When he started two games for the 2022 Raiders, he rushed for 34 and 50 yards on 7 carries each week against elite teams like the Chiefs and 49ers. He never had a run longer than 11 yards, so the carries suggests with his inexperience that he’s not afraid to take off and scramble for what he can.

That should help him get over 14.5 yards here and maybe a lot more. We saw Justin Herbert rush for 57 yards against the Patriots two weeks ago. My thought process is Stidham will be unsure of what he’s seeing multiple times because it’s his first start in two years, and he’s going to use his legs multiple times instead of forcing passes and turning the ball over.

Hell, he’ll probably do both things anyway, but the idea is he’ll scramble enough times to easily go over 14.5 yards. The Broncos let Nix run often last week and he doubled this number. The only concern is the Broncos are so concerned about losing Stidham that they don’t call any runs for him. But I’m banking on a couple of scrambles.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Jarrett Stidham Over 14.5 Rushing Yards (-105) at Bet365

2. Patriots at Broncos: Higher Scoring Than Expected?

The total (O/U 42.5 points) feels like a bit of a trap for this game if you’re leaning towards the under because of the Stidham situation and the way the Patriots have dominated on defense this postseason.

The main thing you have to consider is the Broncos actually have a great offensive line that the Chargers and Texans don’t have. They didn’t give up a sack to Buffalo last week. Stidham has a proven offensive coach in Sean Payton, who did go 8-1 without Drew Brees in New Orleans in 2019-20 when he had Taysom Hill and Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback. He knows how to adapt, and at least Stidham has been with the team since 2023. He’s not someone they signed Tuesday.

The Patriots haven’t faced the Broncos since 2023 when they were an entirely different team, so they don’t have a recent read on Payton’s offense that can work in Denver’s favor at home. The altitude can help too as the Patriots might be gassed by the fourth quarter.

I also like that Stidham has thrown for at least 219 yards and a touchdown in all four of his NFL starts. The only other quarterbacks who can say they did that in their first four starts were Rich Gannon, Kurt Warner, Andrew Luck, Nick Mullens, Justin Herbert, and Jake Browning. That’s why I think he does it again and goes over 198.5 passing yards.

As for going over 42.5 points in the game, let’s not ignore the Patriots side of this equation. The Patriots are 8-0 on the road and have scored at least 23 points in all of those games. In fact, I could see this one ending 23-20 for New England, a favorite score of their season (it was the score they beat Buffalo by for Maye’s first game-winning drive, and it was the score they had in Miami before the teams exchanged return touchdowns on special teams).

The Broncos also have been a bit shaky on defense, playing a 33-30 game at home against Buffalo last week despite the five takeaways, and they lost 34-20 at home to Jacksonville in December, their only poor performance of the season.

When the Broncos aren’t playing a quarterback that was benched, a backup, or a green rookie, they usually give up some decent numbers. That’s why it wouldn’t shock me if both teams get to 20 points, and someone gets to 23+ to win and hit the over 42.5 points.

Scott’s NFL Pick: SGP – Over 42.5 Points & Jarrett Stidham Over 198.5 Passing Yards (+170) at FanDuel

3. Patriots at Broncos: Another Sack Party?

This one worked so well last week I can’t help but bring it back with the way Drake Maye and his line have been charitable at giving up sacks. Maye has already gone down for 10 sacks in the playoffs, five in each game, and now he has to face a Denver pass rush that led the NFL with 68 sacks.

Nik Bonitto is the top guy with 14.0 sacks this season. Jonathan Cooper had 8.0 sacks but has hit a rough patch down the stretch, so I’m not sure I can trust him or Zach Allen (7.0 sacks) to turn this into a parlay.

That’s why I like the alternate line with +210 odds at FanDuel for Bonitto to have over 1.25 sacks. That means a full sack and half a sack and he’s all good. That’s something he’s done in six games this year.

New England Patriots v Tampa Bay Buccaneers - NFL 2025 — (Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)

Doing it against Trey Lance and the Raiders twice might not say much, but he did do it against the Eagles and the Chargers with Justin Herbert (and Joe Alt).

But the reason to like this pick is there’s just little reason to respect the offensive line or Maye’s ability to get rid of the ball on time at the moment. The Denver defense has to know it’s going to have to be outstanding, channel its inner 2015 Broncos against Brady in the title game, to win this game.

So, give me their best rusher in Bonitto to get multiple sacks.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Nik Bonitto to Record 1.25+ Sacks (+210) at FanDuel

4. Rams at Seahawks: Pick for Pick

Field position is going to be crucial in Rams vs. Seahawks as Seattle has had short fields for the last two months, helping Sam Darnold in a big way as he hasn’t had to drive long fields for touchdowns.

SEATTLE, WASHINGTON - AUGUST 7: Sam Darnold #14 of the Seattle Seahawks looks on before the NFL Preseason 2025 game against the Las Vegas Raiders at Lumen Field on August 7, 2025 in Seattle, Washington. — (Photo by Jane Gershovich/Getty Images)

But instead of picking a quarterback to implode here with a pick parade, why not pick both Sam Darnold and Matthew Stafford to throw at least one interception here?

That’s my pick. I think Stafford’s accuracy has been off with the finger injury, and to avoid taking any more sacks, he might force one here against a talented secondary on the road and get picked.

As for Darnold, that implosion game in the biggest game of his life is going to be the story this week and in the Super Bowl if he gets there. Everyone’s waiting to see it, and while I’m not saying he’s going to bomb completely, he has thrown six picks in two games against this defense. Nearly won both games too.

So, what’s the harm in one more? Just don’t do it in overtime or at the 1-yard line (Russell Wilson reference).

Scott’s NFL Pick: SGP – Sam Darnold & Matthew Stafford Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted Each (+210) at BetRivers

5. The New England Special for the Super Bowl

For the record, my picks in the two preview pieces this week were for the favored Seahawks and Patriots to win these games. But it’s obviously a close call either way and crazier things have happened.

I also think it’s very possible we see Patriots vs. Rams in the Super Bowl. This would be fitting in so many ways since that’s the matchup that started (2001) and ended (2018) the New England dynasty from Super Bowl win No. 1 to No. 6. The 2018 season was also the last time both road teams won on Championship Sunday, which would need to happen again for this to happen.

It would also probably be the best matchup to watch out of the four remaining options. As in the one that plays the best. You’d get the MVP storyline between Maye and Stafford just days after we find out who actually won that award from the AP panel.

Just to reiterate some points from the previews, here are the reasons to think the Patriots beat Denver:

The Patriots are playing outstanding defense, and the Broncos are playing a quarterback who hasn’t thrown a meaningful pass since the 2023 season.
Jarrett Stidham is a quarterback Josh McDaniels and the Patriots know very well as he was drafted by New England in 2019 and started two games under McDaniels for the Raiders in 2022, so he knows what he can and can’t do as well as anyone.
The Broncos went 85% quarterback dropbacks against Buffalo’s poor run defense, and they can’t repeat that against the Patriots with a green quarterback coming in cold.
Despite the 68 sacks in the regular season and the five turnovers forced against Buffalo, the Broncos have by far the worst takeaway numbers for a team with 50+ or 60+ sacks, so they can’t count on those turnovers again as it’s not a strength of the team.
Denver’s defense failed to force a single punt by the Bills and were tore apart by Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars at home in their other most recent matchup against a competent offense/quarterback.

Here are the reasons to think the Rams can beat Seattle on the road:

The Rams are up 58-57 on the scoreboard against this No. 1 scoring defense, and they were up 30-14 with under 10:00 left in Week 16 before blowing that one.
Sam Darnold has thrown 6-of-14 picks this year against the Rams, and he was one wild comeback away from going 0-4 against the Rams since 2024.
Darnold’s oblique injury is reportedly still bothering him, and he didn’t have to throw much last week.
The Rams have shown they can run the ball on the Seahawks, their offensive line is healthier than it was in Week 16, and they’ll have their full group of weapons (Davante Adams and the tight ends) they didn’t have when Stafford still threw for 457 yards and 3 touchdowns.
The Rams are 7-1 in playoff rematches under Sean McVay, who turns 40 on Saturday.
Stafford has not taken a sack in 3-of-4 games against a Mike Macdonald defense, and he’s thrown 10 touchdowns to 1 interception in those games.

I think there’s fairly decent value to backing the road teams here even if this is a hard round to win on the road. Plus, you just get the sense it’s the matchup the NFL absolutely wants to see (Boston vs. LA vibes).

Not saying the fix is in, but don’t be shocked if Riley Moss gets flagged for defensive pass interference for some 30-yard penalty on 3rd-and-long when he’s guarding Boutte down the field, or Stafford gets away with a turnover because of a tap on the helmet that gets called roughing the passer.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Parlay – Patriots ML & Rams ML (+212) at FanDuel

6. The Receptions Parlay

The following parlay includes both games and it’s all alternate receptions for skill players:

Pat Bryant 3+ Receptions – Coming off a concussion, he’s become a really good player for the Broncos down the stretch (expecting Christian Gonzalez to lock up with Courtland Sutton).
Courtland Sutton 3+ Receptions – Still good enough to get 3 grabs when his team needs him.
Davante Adams 4+ Receptions – Don’t love the way he’s played since returning from the hamstring injury, but Puka Nacua can’t be the only one dominating again, and Adams should be motivated to not go to 0-5 in Conference Championship Games in his career.
AJ Barner 3+ Receptions – He’s had 4 and 10 catches in the two games against the Rams this year.
Cooper Kupp 3+ Receptions – He’ll make at least 3 catches against his former team as he did in both matchups this year already.
Colby Parkinson 3+ Receptions – He’s third on the team in catches this year and I expect a healthy dose of Stafford pass attempts this week.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Receiver Parlay – 6 Legs (+1107) at FanDuel

7. NFL Picks for Championship Sunday Touchdown Scorer Parlay

Finally, we have a 3-leg parlay for touchdown scorers on what’s not an easy slate to pick from.

Drake Maye (+280 at FanDuel): Tough game as Denver’s top touchdown scorers have odds of +125 (R.J. Harvey) and +250 (Jaleel McLaughlin). But I think I’m going with Maye to do something he only did in three games this year and that’s score a rushing touchdown. But I don’t trust the backs so much in this one, and I don’t love him throwing to his wideouts against that secondary. I think he could run one in either by design or scramble to score his first playoff rushing touchdown. Of course, watch Stidham (+410) beat him to it somehow.

Kenneth Walker (-150 at FanDuel): Easiest call of the weekend here for a touchdown scorer, especially with Zach Charbonnet (ACL) out. Walker had 3 touchdowns last week against the 49ers, and he scored one in both games against the Rams earlier this season. Should be clear for a big day without his main backup available.

Puka Nacua (+120 at FanDuel): I’m just prescribing to trust big-time players making big-time plays in big-time games. Nacua scored twice in Seattle in Week 16 in a game without Davante Adams, though the Stafford to Adams connection hasn’t looked stellar in the playoffs. I just think Nacua is always open and the Rams will find some way to scheme him up for another touchdown here.

Scott’s NFL Pick: 3-Leg Parlay (+1330) at FanDuel

Related Articles:

Table of Contents