Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 6

Scott Kacsmar10/10/2025 - 05:42 pm

DETROIT, MICHIGAN - SEPTEMBER 14: Grant Stuard #15 of the Cleveland Browns looks to make a pass during the first half of an NFL football game against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field on September 28, 2025 in Detroit, Michigan. — (Photo by Todd Rosenberg/Getty Images)

The NFL has a good Week 6 slate headlined by Sunday night’s game between the Lions and Chiefs as well as a very good Monday night doubleheader with Bills vs. Falcons and Bears vs. Commanders. We’ll have parlays for each of those games, and we also have NFL picks for Browns vs. Steelers, Joe Flacco’s déjà vu against the Packers, and we’re going against the Jets and Ravens after last week’s bad ending.

In recapping our Week 5 picks, it was a bit of a disaster. At least Carson Wentz came through in London for the Minnesota cover to spare us a winless week after the Ravens bombed against Houston, the Chiefs blew a fourth-quarter lead for the first time in two years, the Jets sold our teaser parlay, the Chargers forgot how to score in Los Angeles, the Bills lost to the Patriots, and the Raiders never found the end zone in Indy.

Just have to move on from a week where I was 4-10 on moneyline picks, so I’m not really sure where I could have gone differently as Week 5 was loaded with traps everywhere.

Each Friday, we will share seven NFL picks for the weekend. These can be prop picks, spreads, totals, alternate lines, moneylines, teasers, same game parlays, etc. We like to think outside the box instead of just telling you to play the moneyline of big favorites. You can play any of the picks as singles or parlay your favorite choices together. I do tweet winners from time to time before island games kick off, by the way.

Note: Picks are ranked in order of confidence (highest to lowest).

1. Broncos vs. Jets: The Worst Team

After watching the Giants smash the Eagles last night, I’m not sure a great team exists this season right now. After watching the Giants lose in New Orleans on Sunday, I’m not sure we know anything about these teams right now.

But one thing I’m going to feel most confident about this weekend is that the Jets (0-5) stink as the only remaining winless team. Their offense is bad with Justin Fields putting up hollow numbers in garbage time, and their defense is horrible for coach Aaron Glenn.

It would be such typical NFL for the Broncos to beat the Eagles in Philly and go blown a London game to the Jets as a 7.5-point favorite. But I’m going to trust Sean Payton that he knows what he’s doing, and he’ll get this win with a good number of points scored, and he’s going to feed the ball to J.K. Dobbins for another touchdown.

Again, Justin Fields is 0-26 when his opponent scores more than 20 points. Just get to that number against a poor defense and Denver should be fine here.

Scott’s NFL Pick: J.K. Dobbins Anytime Touchdown Scorer/Broncos ML (+114 at FanDuel)

2. Bengals at Packers: Green Bay’s Second Chance vs. Joe Flacco

We know one of the wildest upsets this season was in Week 3 when the Packers blew a 10-0 lead late against Cleveland. Jordan Love threw a bad pick late that led to a short field for the only Cleveland touchdown, then the Packers had their field goal blocked before the Browns hit one in a 13-10 stunner.

They absolutely should have won that game, but they haven’t won since Week 2 because of that blown lead, the tie in Dallas, and their bye week. Now they get a home game with Cincinnati as a 14-point favorite, and guess who the quarterback is again.

It’s Joe Flacco after he was traded from Cleveland to Cincinnati after Jake Browning’s dreadful series of games. I’m not sure Flacco is much of an upgrade over Jake Browning right now. Sure, he might see some open receivers Browning misses, but he’s going to turn the ball over in this offense, and he’s going to take sacks behind that battered offensive line.

It’s kind of wild that he’s already starting after just joining the team this week, but his experience of playing the Packers in Week 3 should make prep a little easier. But if you look at the way Flacco played in Week 3, he was totally ineffective with 21-of-36 for 142 yards and a pick.

Let’s give Green Bay a second shot to do the right thing here. For one, the offense should score a lot more than 10 points after playing that Cincinnati defense instead of Cleveland. But let’s go with the Packers to pick off Flacco and win by an alternate line of 9.5 points (double digits), like they should have done in Week 3 against Flacco.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Joe Flacco Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted & Packers -9.5 (+125 at BetMGM)

3. Browns at Steelers: Keep the Rookie Down

The Steelers are a 5.5-point home favorite against Cleveland after their bye. Pittsburgh had a long history of beating Cleveland, which is probably why retired quarterback Ben Roethlisberger called this a “second bye week” for his Steelers.

But come on, Big Ben. You played through enough bad upsets against Mike Tomlin-coached teams to know there’s no such thing as an easy game for the Steelers. They make everything look hard, and the Browns are no joke defensively.

Still, I believe the Steelers will win the game, and I think their talent will get to rookie Dillon Gabriel a little better than what the Vikings did to him last week now that the Steelers have some tape on him as a starter.

One thing that stood out was Gabriel feeding 10 completions to his tight ends, including rookie Harold Fannin Jr. That’s where I think he’ll feel comfortable throwing the ball against this defense again this week, and that’s why I’m taking Fannin to go over 26.5 receiving yards.

But I’m still picking the Steelers to win the game at home.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Harold Fannin Jr. Over 26.5 Receiving Yards & Steelers ML (+142 at FanDuel)

4. Cowboys at Panthers: Rico Dowdle Revenge Game?

Last week, Carolina back Chuba Hubbard was out, and Rico Dowdle took that opportunity to shine with the best rushing performance of the season with 206 yards and a touchdown against Miami in a comeback win.

Dowdle is no scrub. He had 1,079 rushing yards in Dallas last year but the Cowboys did not bring him back. It’s unclear if Hubbard will be back for the Panthers this Sunday or not, but Dowdle would obviously love to stick it to his former team to show them what they’re missing.

But I’m going the other way and trusting Javonte Williams to score a touchdown, the game to have at least 40 points with both defenses being poor, and for the Cowboys to win as I simply trust Dak Prescott way more than Bryce Young.

But it would be fun if Hubbard is out and you can freely bet on Dowdle to do well too and find the end zone. But Williams has played well for Dallas, so there’s not much regret about that switch so far despite what Dowdle did last week.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Over 39.5 Points & Javonte Williams Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Cowboys ML (+144 at FanDuel)

5. Ravens at Rams: Ravaging the Ravens

The Rams are still a 7.5-point road favorite, so it doesn’t sound good for Lamar Jackson to return to action. The Ravens need him as the defense has sunk to the worst in the league, making the Texans look like a juggernaut last week.

The Rams come in having lost as a big favorite to a heavily injured 49ers team, so nothing is impossible here. But right now, the Ravens don’t look like they can keep a team under 35 points, and it’s time for Sean McVay’s team to stop playing around and stack some wins after blowing a 19-point lead in Philadelphia and losing that game to the 49ers in overtime.

That’s why I like Davante Adams to score a touchdown as he has a good connection with Matthew STfford, and Puka Nacua is on track for a 2,000-yard season, so I think he can get over 90 yards against this clueless defense.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Davante Adams Anytime Touchdown & Puka Nacua 90+ Receiving Yards (+240 at Caesars Sportsbook)

DETROIT, MICHIGAN - JANUARY 14: Puka Nacua #17 of the Los Angeles Rams celebrates after scoring a touchdown during the second quarter against the Detroit Lions in the NFC Wild Card Playoffs at Ford Field on January 14, 2024 in Detroit, Michigan. — (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

6. Lions at Chiefs: Can Kansas City Win a Close Game?

Well, my streak of being right on every Kansas City game snapped last week after the Chiefs uncharacteristically blew a 14-point lead, then wasted a go-ahead touchdown drive by Patrick Mahomes in the fourth quarter for the first time since September 2021. It was also the first game the Chiefs lost after leading in the fourth quarter since 2023.

To the surprise of some, the 2-3 Chiefs opened as a 2.5-point home favorite this Sunday night against Detroit, which hasn’t lost since Week 1 and leads the league in scoring while boasting a strong run defense and elite pass rusher in Aidan Hutchinson. Some sportsbooks have the spread down to Chiefs -1 already.

But we have a 5-leg parlay that begs the question, can the Chiefs win a close game this year? They’re 0-3 in such games so far.

Patrick Mahomes 2+ Passing Touchdowns
Patrick Mahomes 250+ Passing Yards
Jameson Williams 30+ Receiving Yards
Lions +8.5
Chiefs ML

With Patrick Mahomes, he’s thrown for at least 270 yards in consecutive games, and that should continue here as he is comfortable with his protection and current receivers. The Detroit secondary is also missing two starting corners in Terrion Arnold and D.J. Reed, so Mahomes should have good looks in the passing game.

Not all of the props I’d like to see for this game are available as there’s some concern over Xavier Worthy’s game status after he didn’t practice Thursday. But it sounds like he’ll play. Still, I wouldn’t mind betting on things like Tyquan Thornton to go over in his longest reception, or for Marquise Brown to score a touchdown as the Lions are vulnerable to receivers.

I also think FanDuel’s option to bet on “either player to score a touchdown” is a good one if you can find one choice with Sam LaPorta or Jameson Williams as both could do it in this matchup. The Chiefs are one of two defenses to not allow a touchdown pass to a tight end, but they haven’t been challenged much after playing the Chargers, Giants, Eagles without Dallas Goedert, and Brenton Strange left Monday’s game early. LaPorta can do it here after he scored last week.

But I am going to ignore touchdowns in our parlay and go with Williams to have 30+ receiving yards. He’s been a disappointment this year after signing his extension worth $83 million, but the Chiefs should try to put Trent McDuffie on Amon-Ra St. Brown as much as possible, which could free up the speedy Williams for big plays.

Finally, it comes down to the scoreboard, and we are going with the Chiefs to win a one-score game by 1-to-8 points. They are 0-3 in such games this year because they usually are on defense late in those games and haven’t been able to get the big stop. They need to get the ball to Mahomes and have him close the game, or at least see if Harrison Butker can hit the game-winning field goal. Watch him be the next miscue in a close loss.

But the Chiefs are masters of the close games. They were pegged for regression this year after winning their last 17 one-score games, an NFL record. But this team with Mahomes has had runs of 10-1 and 12-1 in one-score games. This is only the fourth time they’ve been 0-3 with Mahomes, and they were 0-4 during the 2023 season before ripping off the 17-0 streak, so they’ve proven they can shake off a bad month and sustain close-game excellence better than anyone in NFL history.

At the end of the day, that’s what it’s been for Kansas City, a bad month. They’re getting better on offense every week and they still haven’t had Rashee Rice back yet. This is the last game before his suspension ends. Detroit has played well, but the Browns and Bengals also handed great field position over to Jared Goff and company in those games. The Chiefs have 2 giveaways this year, but they’ve unfortunately been right at the goal line in the second half of games.

The Chiefs need to avoid going 2-4 and hunker down with a sharp performance. I think they get it done here, but Detroit is really good too. Remember, these teams met to start the 2023 season, a game where Travis Kelce and Chris Jones were inactive. Kadarius Toney turned a completion into a pick-six, the defense gave up a fourth-quarter lead, and Toney dropped the pass that would have put the Chiefs in game-winning field goal range. Detroit won 21-20.

Winning close games is hard in the NFL, but it’s even harder to hold a team like the Chiefs down forever in close games.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Patrick Mahomes 2+ Passing TD and 250+ Passing Yards & Jameson Williams 30+ Receiving Yards & Lions +8.5 & Chiefs ML (+621 at FanDuel)

KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI - OCTOBER 05: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs is announced before the game against the New England Patriots at Arrowhead Stadium on October 05, 2020 in Kansas City, Missouri. — (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

7. Monday Night Parlay

Finally, for a solid Monday Night Football doubleheader, we have a 5-leg parlay:

Bijan Robinson Over 113.5 Rushing/Receiving Yards – He’s had two 100-yard receiving games already, is a great dual threat, very good runner, and the Bills have struggled to stop the run this year.
Josh Allen Over 228.5 Passing Yards – He’ll look to get on track with his receivers in the dome against a middling secondary at best.
Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown Scorer – He’ll break Cam Newton’s record for games with a touchdown pass and touchdown run by running one in himself.
Bills ML – Bills rarely lose two in a row and are still a better team than the Falcons.
D.J. Moore (Bears) Over 39.5 Receiving Yards – With Rome Odunze getting attention as the new WR1, the veteran Moore will break 40 yards and have a solid game against a weak secondary.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Parlay – Bijan Robinson Over 113.5 Rushing/Receiving Yards & Josh Allen Over 228.5 Passing Yards & Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown & Bills ML & D.J. Moore Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (+1731 at FanDuel)

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