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Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 5

Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar03/10/2025 - 02:21 pm
KANSAS CITY, MO - JANUARY 29: Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) readies for a play during the game against the Cincinnati Bengals on January 29th, 2023 at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri.
(Photo by William Purnell/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

The NFL has some solid Week 5 games, including Commanders-Chargers, Patriots-Bills on Sunday night, and the best game could be Monday night between the Chiefs and Jaguars. We’ll have NFL picks for each and more, and be sure to check out our updated picks for the seven NFL individual awards in 2025, including MVP.

In recapping our Week 4 picks, the Chiefs, Baker Mayfield, and the Colts-Rams game all gave us three clean wins. The Patriots also cleared 24.5 points by halftime, but unfortunately those Jets will always do you in. Also, I had to learn who Woody Marks is the hard way when he kept stealing the Nick Chubb touchdowns in Houston.

Each Friday, we will share seven NFL picks for the weekend. These can be prop picks, spreads, totals, alternate lines, moneylines, teasers, same game parlays, etc. We like to think outside the box instead of just telling you to play the moneyline of big favorites. You can play any of the picks as singles or parlay your favorite choices together. I do tweet winners from time to time before island games kick off, by the way.

Note: Picks are ranked in order of confidence (highest to lowest).

1. Vikings vs. Browns: Not My Cup of Tea

Backing the Vikings last week in Ireland did not work out against the Steelers. The defense didn’t fool Aaron Rodgers, and the backup offensive linemen were overwhelmed by Pittsburgh’s blitz. With all that going against them, the Vikings still came a few plays short of an 18-point comeback in not even a full quarter, so that’s a positive for the Carson Wentz-led offense.

We’re going to try the Vikings again overseas as they left for London on Monday instead of coming back to the United States and flying back for another weekend. Maybe they’ll feel more rested this way while the Browns are the ones doing the heavy traveling this week.

The Browns also made NFL news by benching Joe Flacco for rookie Dillon Gabriel. If Brian Flores’ defense can’t confuse a rookie in his first start, then maybe this Minnesota defense shouldn’t be taken seriously anymore.

Picking the under (35.5) feels so easy on this game with backup quarterbacks facing strong defenses that it’ll probably end 31-30. So, we’re just going to play it safe and go with the more experienced quarterback (Wentz) with the better roster around him for the team that’s played better football. Gabriel is a wild card, but the Browns also are 6-17 ATS in their last 23 games ever since Flacco Mania peaked at the end of 2023. This team is also 1-8 ATS away from Cleveland in the last nine games.

I don’t think Kevin Stefanski has the answers anymore, I don’t expect much from Gabriel on Sunday, so I am going with Minnesota to cover.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Vikings -3.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

2. Texans at Ravens: Any Hope Left in Baltimore?

I haven’t seen Baltimore look this hopeless since The Wire was last on HBO. The Lamar Jackson hamstring injury is so significant to the spread that it swung it 11 points as the Texans are now a 1.5-point favorite in Baltimore. That’s insane line movement for one player.

But it’s not really one player missing in Baltimore, right? The defense has lost a handful of players and some won’t be back for this game or any more games this year. The team is definitely struggling on the defensive side in a way we haven’t seen in John Harbaugh’s tenure. The only game they played well was against Cleveland, which isn’t saying much if you read the first pick.

But if there’s a silver lining this week, it’s that the Houston offense has scored 12 points in three games against Baltimore since 2023, the full DeMeco Ryans-C.J. Stroud era. Houston has scored 10 points on a punt return and safety in those three losses to the Ravens while the offense has four field goals and zero touchdowns.

This is Stroud’s worst opponent by far as we were reminded last Christmas when the Texans lost 31-2 to this team. Well, not this week’s team but the Ravens of December 2024.

Also, the 2025 Texans are even worse on offense. They average 16 points per game, and they only broke 20 for the first time last week in a game that was 6-0 to start the fourth quarter. The Titans gave them some short fields to work with to get it up to 26-0.

With this game, I think the Ravens ask Cooper Rush, who is 8-1 as a starter when he throws for at least 190 yards (the one loss is Houston last year, unfortunately), to play it safe, make smart passes to the skill players he has that are mostly all healthy, and to lean on Derrick Henry, who has a history of destroying Houston.

I think the game is going to be low scoring, and maybe the under for the game is the smartest pick. But since I’m always trying to be different and think outside the box, I am going with the Houston team total to go under 20.5 points as the Ravens do their best to salvage their season as this is a battle of 1-3 teams.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Texans Under 20.5 Points (-111 at FanDuel)

HOUSTON, TEXAS - JANUARY 13: C.J. Stroud #7 of the Houston Texans takes the field prior to the AFC Wild Card Playoffs against the Cleveland Browns at NRG Stadium on January 13, 2024 in Houston, Texas.
(Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)

3. Chiefs at Jaguars: Travis Kelce’s First Game at Age 36

I’m trying to go 5-for-5 on my Kansas City picks this season as I again had it right last week with the Chiefs (+2.5) beating the Ravens outright at home. They played one of their best games of the last few years in a 37-20 final.

This Monday night, the Chiefs are a 3.5-point road favorite in Jacksonville, a 3-1 team that is doing a good job of running the football with Travis Etienne and taking the ball away at the best rate in the NFL. The Jaguars have 13 takeaways with at least three in each game, and that’s after they had 9 takeaways in all of 2024. It was a fact I pointed out in the team preview for why the Jaguars should be a better team this year.

Turnover regression is real, which is also why this game is so interesting as you have the Chiefs with one giveaway all year and the Jaguars with 13 takeaways on defense. Who’s going to blink first there? The Chiefs were protecting the ball very well in the second half of 2024 as well until the Super Bowl happened, but the 2025 Jaguars are not the 2024 Eagles from a talent standpoint. They’ve also played Bryce Young, lost to Jake Browning even after he threw 3 picks in Week 2, C.J. Stroud, and an injured Brock Purdy.

This is Patrick Mahomes, who has Xavier Worthy back now and we already saw his impact. Also, the Chiefs’ only giveaway this year should have been a touchdown to Travis Kelce against Philadelphia, but the pass was deflected.

Speaking of Kelce, Sunday is his 36th birthday, and Taylor Swift just dropped her new album. How could you bet against him on Monday night? I don’t trust the Chiefs in the red zone right now to bet on him to score a touchdown, but I’ll gladly take his over in receiving (43.5 yards), a number he’s crossed in 3-of-4 games this year.

With my luck, he’ll catch two touchdowns and finish with 12 yards or something silly. But yes, we’re taking the Chiefs to win their third in a row to get back to a winning record. The Chiefs are starting to get turnovers again on defense, and Trevor Lawrence is 0-3 against Steve Spagnuolo, and I think they blitz him into some mistakes.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Travis Kelce Over 43.5 Receiving Yards & Chiefs ML (+170 at BetMGM)

4. Three Game Teaser: Trusting the Jets, Saints, and the Under in London

I didn’t have the courage to pick the Saints to win outright, nor did I like the odds on that moneyline, so I spiced it up with a three-game teaser, teasing each line by 6 points:

  • Jets +2.5 vs. Cowboys teased to +8.5
  • Saints -1.5 vs. Giants teased to +4.5
  • Under 35.5 Points in Vikings-Browns teased to Under 41.5

I said above I didn’t want to fall for the trap that is the under in Vikings-Browns as it’ll probably end 31-30, but I’m comfortable with teasing it to go under 41.5 as I doubt both teams score 15 points, let alone 20 points.

As for the Jets, I think there’s a classic overreaction to how great Dallas did in getting a 40-40 tie with Green Bay when the expectations weren’t there for that at all. But look at their home/road splits this year. They scored 40 in overtime in both home games while going scoreless in the second half of road losses to the Eagles (24-20) and Bears (31-14). Yikes.

CeeDee Lamb is still out too, which is probably a smart move as you don’t want to risk him at MetLife Stadium, one of the worst stadiums for injuries. It took down Mailk Nabers and Joe Alt last week. Also, George Pickens is anything but Mr. Consistent, so after his huge game, don’t be surprised if Sauce Gardner locks him down.

As I’ll keep pointing out until he wins a game, Justin Fields is 0-25 when the opponent scores more than 20 points. He needs to win one eventually, and it could even be this week if the defense can hold the Cowboys to 21 points. That’d count. But with the expectation that Dallas won’t score a ton, I think Jets +8.5 is a good line on the teaser.

Finally, I wanted to pick the Saints to win outright but I’m still nervous about them. Before the season, you circled this game as maybe the first shot the Giants had at winning a game given their brutal schedule. Alas, they shocked us and the Chargers last week by winning that game. But you lose Malik Nabers, Jaxson Dart is taking a lot of sacks and got two scoring drives that started at the opponent 3 last week, and you just can’t trust that operation yet.

Meanwhile, the Saints have challenged the 49ers, Cardinals, and Bills in close losses. Kellen Moore has them competing as only the Seattle loss was terrible football. I think the Saints can win this one outright, but I’ll stick with the teased line of Saints +4.5.

But if the Saints lose this one too, then you start wondering where that win’s coming from. Probably a game against Carolina (Week 10) or Miami (Week 13). But they could get it done here as the Giants are still flawed despite the upset last week.

Scott’s NFL Pick: 6-Point Teaser Parlay – Jets +8.5, Saints +4.5, Under 41.5 Points in Vikings-Browns (+140 at FanDuel)

5. Commanders at Chargers: The First Jayden Daniels vs. Justin Herbert Matchup  

This should have been an Austin Ekeler Revenge Game, but unfortunately the back injured his Achilles. At least Jayden Daniels is returning for the Commanders, and Justin Herbert and the Chargers will try to bounce back from their first loss of the season.

We have a 4-leg parlay for what could be a really good game, if not the best one on Sunday afternoon:

  • Ladd McConkey Over 58.5 Receiving Yards
  • Justin Herbert Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
  • Commanders Over 19.5 Points
  • Chargers ML

Last year, Ladd McConkey was the only receiver that Herbert could trust. This year, he’s slid to WR3 as Quentin Johnston has played great and his security blanket (Keenan Allen) is back. But I think this matchup is a great one for McConkey as the Commanders don’t have a good secondary at all after giving up over 300 yards to Michael Penix last week in Atlanta. They also lack the edge rushers that could take advantage of Herbert missing both of his tackles.

That’s why I like Herbert to play well and throw multiple touchdown passes against a weak defense. The Chargers haven’t scored 27 points since Brazil in Week 1, but this has a chance to be that kind of game for them, if not the first 30-point outing of the season.

That’s also why I like Washington to score at least 20 points as that’s usually what this team does. They’ve scored at least 18 points in every game since Dan Quinn became the coach last year, which is one of the longest streaks in NFL history. Since most teams don’t score 18 or 19 exactly, we’ll go with over 19.5 points as the Commanders get to 20 with Daniels back and having to match pace with Herbert.

But I still like the Chargers to prevail in the end.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Ladd McConkey Over 58.5 Receiving Yards & Justin Herbert Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns & Commanders Over 19.5 Points & Chargers ML (+550 at BetMGM)

Can he produce a shocker? Jayden Daniels will need to be at his very best to win it
(Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

6. Patriots at Bills: The De Facto AFC East Title Game

If we’re going to get any sort of race in the AFC East this year, the Patriots should really try to win this game. But it’s going to be tough as they are an 8-point underdog and have struggled to score in half of their games. But we have a 4-leg parlay with a particular game script in mind:

  • Drake Maye Over 20.5 Pass Completions
  • Stefon Diggs Over 4.5 Receptions
  • Drake Maye Over 25.5 Rushing Yards
  • Bills -8

Both of these teams have played soft schedules to this point, and they’re both 2-2 ATS so far. But maybe the more relevant stat is that the Patriots are 4-0 ATS in the last two seasons against the Bills, including a 3-0 ATS record in games where they were an underdog of at least 7.5 points against Josh Allen and the starters. The Patriots won a Week 18 game against a lot of backups last year.

But even a rookie Drake Maye arguably outplayed Allen in his MVP season in Buffalo last December in a game that ended 24-21. This year, Maye is playing better, he has a much better coach in Mike Vrabel, and the Patriots are coming off the kind of demolition of Carolina that the Bills were supposed to have over New Orleans as a 15-point favorite. Instead, the Bills had to put them away late in the fourth quarter.

We know the Bills are struggling to stop the run but that’s just not what the Patriots do well right now. Their bread and butter have been smart, efficient throws by Maye as well as utilizing his legs. That’s why I think he goes over 20.5 pass completions and over 25.5 rushing yards as he does his best Allen impersonation in this game.

Stefon Diggs already had his “revenge game” against the Bills last year with Houston. He caught 6 balls for 82 yards in a 23-20 win. I think he hits his over in receptions with at least a handful of catches here, taking advantage of the over in completions we’re giving to Maye as his No. 1 receiver.

But with the Bills not covering bigger spreads the last two weeks, I think they get over that hump and win this one by 8-to-14 points specifically. Just take the spread instead of getting that specific. But with the Bills’ fumble luck and how bad Rhamondre Stevenson is at fumbling for New England, don’t be surprised when the Bills don’t lose the turnover battle for a 27th game in a row and win comfortably to take a stranglehold over the AFC East for the sixth year in a row.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Drake Maye Over 20.5 Pass Completions & Stefon Diggs Over 4.5 Receptions & Drake Maye Over 25.5 Rushing Yards & Bills -8 (+800 at BetMGM)

7. Touchdown Scorer Parlay for Your NFL Picks

Finally, we have a 5-leg parlay built from just two games for players to score a touchdown on Sunday:

  • Jonathan Taylor (Colts) vs. Raiders
  • Ashton Jeanty (Raiders) vs. Colts
  • Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs. Bengals
  • David Montgomery (Lions) vs. Bengals
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions) vs. Bengals

The Colts should go to town on this Vegas defense, and Taylor is maybe as likely as anyone to score a touchdown. In fact, we should probably swap him out for Daniel Jones or Michael Pittman or Tyler Warren, but let’s just roll with it.

Then in the same game, Ashton Jeanty scored three touchdowns last week, so maybe that return to his college stance will keep him playing well and he’ll score again in this game too. He’s their best weapon right now as you can’t trust Geno Smith.

Then in Lions-Bengals, the Cincinnati defense is still a joke. They tried to blame it on coordinator Lou Anarumo by firing him, but there’s clearly a lack of talent issue here. That’s why this is the perfect defense for Detroit to load up on touchdowns for, and that means spreading it to their three best players in Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, and Amon-Ra St. Brown.

That’s something I love about this Detroit offense. They’ve already had two games (Bears and Ravens) this year where all three of those players scored touchdowns. They know how to share the wealth, and the Bengals will let you do it to them.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Anytime Touchdown Scorer Parlay – Jonathan Taylor & Ashton Jeanty & Jahmyr Gibbs & David Montgomery & Amon-Ra St. Brown (+1506 at FanDuel)

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Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar03/10/2025 - 02:21 pm