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Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: 2025 Wild Card Weekend

Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar09/01/2026 - 12:58 pm
HOUSTON, TEXAS - JANUARY 11: Justin Herbert #10 of the Los Angeles Chargers passes against the Houston Texans during the AFC Wild Card Playoffs at NRG Stadium on January 11, 2025 in Houston, Texas.
(Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images)

The 2025 NFL playoffs are here with wild card weekend. It should be six good games, and we’ve already looked at Fraud Alert Rating as well as full previews for the AFC and NFC games. We have NFL picks from every game below.

In fact, let’s try something different for this week’s six-game playoff slate. We’re going to run through each game in order with some picks we like, you can pick out what you like from them, and then we’ll conclude with our favorite parlay for the weekend.

In recapping our Week 18 picks, the only thing we got right was the perfect NFC South finish (+160) with Tampa Bay winning and Carolina still winning the division because of an Atlanta win. However, what a bummer to lose a +1200 SGP on Ravens-Steelers because Tyler Loop missed a 44-yard field goal. Then again, we warned in July that the rookie kicker could be what ends Baltimore’s 2025 season, and sure enough…

Each Friday, we will share seven NFL picks for the weekend. These can be prop picks, spreads, totals, alternate lines, moneylines, teasers, same game parlays, etc. We like to think outside the box instead of just telling you to play the moneyline of big favorites. You can play any of the picks as singles or parlay your favorite choices together. I do tweet winners from time to time before island games kick off, by the way.

1. Rams at Panthers: Upset Brewing?

Spread Pick – Panthers +10.5 (-110): Maybe I’ll regret this one, but it just feels like too many points for a Rams team on the road that is 3-3 in its last six games and has already blown a handful of games. Not to mention losing three games as a favorite of 7.5+ points, including a 10-point spread in Carolina. It might also rain, which hurts the precision passing team (Rams) more.

Bryce Young Over 192.5 Passing Yards (-114 at FanDuel): I think he plays his best in the biggest games, he thrrew for 266 yards in the rain at Tampa last week, and he threw for 206 yards in the last game against LA. He threw for 263 yards at home against Kansas City last year, and he should have been over 200 yards in Philadelphia if not for that Xavier Leggette drop. Whether it’s him playing well or throwing to keep up, I like his over a lot here.

CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA - NOVEMBER 03: Bryce Young #9 of the Carolina Panthers runs off the field after winning his game against the New Orleans Saints at Bank of America Stadium on November 03, 2024 in Charlotte, North Carolina.
(Photo by Matt Kelley/Getty Images)

Matthew Stafford 2+ Passing Touchdowns (-280 at FanDuel): A good prop pick for a parlay/builder, Matthew Stafford has thrown 2+ touchdowns in 11 straight games, including 2 touchdowns at Carolina in Week 13. That’s one of the longest streaks in NFL history, and with Davante Adams and Tyler Higbee back, he has a full complement of weapons to use.

2. Packers at Bears: Trust Green Bay?

Spread Pick – Packers -1.5 (-110): We know the Packers were up by 7 points late in both matchups since December. They have the more experienced coach and quarterback in these situations, and they got key players rest last week while the Bears slumped through a loss to Detroit. I picked Green Bay to reach the Super Bowl before the season, and while losing Micah Parsons and Tucker Kraft is going to kill that, I think they advance this week.

Josh Jacobs Over 75.5 Rushing Yards (-114 at FanDuel): Jacobs had 86 yards in the first matchup and 36 in the rematch on a night he wasn’t healthy. They got him rest last week after only 4 carries against Baltimore, so I’m banking on that energizing him and for the Packers to lean on him in Jordan Love’s first game back from a concussion against the No. 27 rush defense that already gave up 192 yards to the Packers on the ground in their building in Week 16.

JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA - OCTOBER 27: Josh Jacobs #8 of the Green Bay Packers runs the ball in for a touch down against the Jacksonville Jaguars during the second half at EverBank Stadium on October 27, 2024 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Rich Storry/Getty Images)
(Photo by Rich Storry/Getty Images)

Christian Watson Over 53.5 Receiving Yards (-114 at FanDuel): He’s clearly established himself as the team’s best wide receiver and he got some time off to get healthy for this matchup. He was held to 17 yards in Chicago, but that was also the game Love was injured and they didn’t throw as much. Watson had 89 yards and 2 touchdowns in the first meeting, so let’s hope for one more like that to align with a Green Bay win.

Bears Under 10.5 First Half Points (-128 at FanDuel): Remember, the Bears were down 16-6 late in the fourth quarter last time at home. I think Caleb Williams is a little nervous in his first playoff game and has an inconsistent first half, leading to under 10.5 points by halftime for the Bears.

3. Bills at Jaguars: Josh Allen’s Year?

Moneyline – Bills ML (-108 at FanDuel): It’s a tough call, but I trust the Bills more to be able to run and throw the ball in this one. Even if James Cook is contained by the No. 1 run defense, Josh Allen has to make his mark on this postseason, his first chance without Patrick Mahomes in the bracket.

Trevor Lawrence has been playing very well, but I think they put a lot on him in this game and he doesn’t play efficiently against a tough pass defense. Don’t forget the Jaguars have a league-high 45 dropped passes this year. Enough mistakes in the passing game catch up with them, and with Sean McDermott possibly coaching for his job (he saw the John Harbaugh news clearer than anyone), I like Buffalo to win but it should be a good game.

JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA - JUNE 11: Trevor Lawrence #16 of the Jacksonville Jaguars throws a pass during a Jacksonville Jaguars mandatory minicamp at Miller Electric Center on June 11, 2025 in Jacksonville, Florida.
(Photo by Logan Bowles/Getty Images)

Also, here’s a crazy stat: The Jaguars are 0-25 in games since 2007 where the total is 49 points or higher. The total is 51.5 here. They’re 0-8 in the Lawrence era in such games.

Trevor Lawrence Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted (-128 at FanDuel): Again, Lawrence is the quarterback who threw four interceptions in his first playoff start at home against the Chargers in 2022, so I think he is someone who will throw one here against a defense known for creating takeaways.

Travis Etienne Under 64.5 Rushing Yards (-114 at FanDuel): Everyone has hammered the point home about Buffalo’s run defense this year, but it hasn’t been that bad in recent weeks outside of the two home runs allowed to TreVeyon Henderson in New England. The Jags have been inconsistent in this area, and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Bills rise to the occasion (2006 Colts style) and hold Travis Etienne under 64.5 yards. Don’t be shocked if Lawrence ends up leading the team in rushing here.

Etienne has finished under 64.5 rushing yards in 9-of-17 games this year.

Jaguars Under 26.5 Team Points (-113 at FanDuel): The Jaguars have scored at least 23 points in every game since the bye week, but I think they finish this game under 26.5 points. We already talked about Lawrence’s dropped passes, the inconsistent running game, and how the Bills have a strong pass defense. But I would also point out that McDermott’s playoff defense has only allowed 27+ points one time outside of the games at Arrowhead (Chiefs). This is his chance to shine and I think they hold Lawrence down on the scoreboard for the win.

4. 49ers at Eagles: Not Quite the 2022 NFC Championship Game

Under 44.5 Points (-115): If you’ve watched the Eagles this year, you know they have a tendency to stop scoring in the second half. They also are capable of winning games without scoring 17 points, which is hard to fathom in 2025. But I think this game is an offensive struggle because of Philly’s defense and San Francisco’s injuries. A final like 24-20 would actually be on the high end of expectations, and that’d still be under 44.5 points. I think it’s very likely both teams don’t reach 20 points.

Brock Purdy Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted (-146 at FanDuel): Brock Purdy has played very well this year but he does have a higher rate of interceptions (3.5%) than you want to see. I think he gets into trouble here on the road and throws one against one of the best pass defenses he’s going to see all year.

Dallas Goedert Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+195 at FanDuel): The 49ers have allowed 10 touchdowns to tight ends, and Dallas Goedert has scored 11 times this year. Many were easy plays too as designing those goal-line touchdowns has been one of the biggest bright spots for this Philadelphia offense under Kevin Patullo. I like Goedert to score another here in a game that likely won’t have many touchdowns.

5. Chargers at Patriots: Which QB to Trust?

Spread Pick – Chargers +3.5 (-110): The one area the Chargers are the shakiest is offensive line and protecting Justin Herbert. But he’s managed this throughout the season, and the Patriots lack a dominant pass rusher. I trust Jim Harbaugh to rally the troops on the road and play well in a building they won 40-7 late last year. Much better New England team in 2025, but as we know, they’re just 1-2 against winning teams and Vrabel’s lost his last three playoff games. I’ll take the Chargers with the points.

Justin Herbert Over 29.5 Rushing Yards (-114 at FanDuel): Herbert has scrambled more than ever this season and done so very well. I think the week off will do him wonders and he’ll be willing to pick up first downs with his legs where he’s been lethal on third downs too. He could even end up leading the team in rushing (again) with the injury to Omarion Hampton not looking good.

TreVeyon Henderson Longest Rush Over 13.5 Yards (-108 at FanDuel): The rookie has turned heads with his speed, especially on his four touchdown runs of 50-plus yards. Surprisingly, he only has six games this year where he’s registered a long rush over 13.5 yards, but he’s also been used sparingly in several games. I think they unleash him here and he rips off a decent gain at some point.

Hunter Henry Over 44.5 Receiving Yards (-114 at FanDuel): Taking on his former team, look for Hunter Henry to be a reliable target underneath for Drake Maye and go over 44.5 yards at home where he already has five games with 50+ yards this year.

Tuli Tuipulotu to Record a Sack (-138 at FanDuel): With all the attention on Herbert taking sacks, let’s not forget Drake Maye is right up there in sacks taken this season with 47. I think he might be timid to let the ball go in his first playoff game, and Tuipulotu can add to his sack total with another after 13.0 in the regular season.

Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers
(Photo by Brooke Sutton/Getty Images)

6. Texans at Steelers: Streaking

Moneyline Pick – Steelers ML (+138 at FanDuel): If not now, when? The Steelers have lost six straight playoff games but also have won 23 straight Monday night games. This team has felt different this year, and Aaron Rodgers is a big part of that. He gets D.K. Metcalf back at a time where the offense has been productive at scoring. The defense has actually stepped up against the Colts/Patriots/Lions, and Houston isn’t as good offensively. It’s time for the Steelers to end the playoff win drought and take this one.

T.J. Watt to Record a Sack (+116 at FanDuel): Pittsburgh’s playoff drought means T.J. Watt has never experienced a playoff win. I like him to get a sack in this one as we’ve seen C.J. Stroud take some big sack counts in big games, including 8 sacks at Kansas City last postseason. Watt looked healthy in his return last week and the Texans don’t have the strongest offensive line.

Steelers 2nd Half Winner (+112 at FanDuel): The defining stat of Pittsburgh’s 6-game losing streak in the playoffs is that they trailed by 21+ points in every game. They need to survive the first half and get this to the fourth quarter to win it. That’s why I like Rodgers, who did this last year against Houston with the Jets, to shake off a slow start and win the game in the second half by outscoring the Texans in the last 30 minutes.

Aaron Rodgers Over 204.5 Passing Yards (-114 at FanDuel): If this ends up being Rodgers’ final game, he’s going out swinging. The Texans struggled with Riley Leonard (Colts) last week, and Rodgers has some weapons back like Metcalf and Calvin Austin to go with great receiving backs for an offense that has the most YAC Over Expected. I look for him to throw a lot of quick passes to negate the pass rush and finish over 204.5 passing yards.

Nico Collins Over 4.5 Receptions (-160 at FanDuel): The Steelers are no strangers to playing loose with top receivers as we saw against Zay Flowers (Ravens) last week Between giving up big cushions early in games and breakdowns late, I’d be surprised if Nico Collins doesn’t haunt in a handful of catches here.

7. NFL Picks for Wild Card Parlay

Finally, in choosing something from each game from the things we’ve said above, let’s look at a 6-leg parlay for wild card weekend with +2964 odds:

  • Panthers +10.5
  • Packers ML
  • Bills ML
  • Brock Purdy Interception
  • Justin Herbert 200+ Passing Yards (safer pick than rushing)
  • Steelers +3 (playing it safe)

Scott’s NFL Pick: 6-Leg Parlay (+2964 at FanDuel)

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Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar09/01/2026 - 12:58 pm