Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 12

Scott Kacsmar20/11/2025 - 06:56 am

ARLINGTON, TX - DECEMBER 04: Jonathan Taylor #28 of the Indianapolis Colts warms up against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium on December 4, 2022 in Arlington, Texas. — (Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)

The NFL has put together another really solid schedule for Week 12, and since we’re posting a day early this week, we might as well tackle the Thursday night game between the Texans and Bills. But we’ll also have NFL picks for Steelers-Bears, Shedeur Sanders’ first start in Las Vegas, and maybe the AFC Game of the Year by impact between the Colts and Chiefs.

In recapping our Week 11 picks, I really wasted a 10-5 ATS week to back the Chargers (-3) in Jacksonville (35-6). Woof. But the Josh Allen passing script worked well in Buffalo, and the pick parade (J.J. McCarthy and Jameis Winston) happened for multiple +145 wins. Might have hit the Unc Bowl parlay if Aaron Rodgers didn’t get hurt, but Sam Darnold crapped his pants in LA and the Lions-Eagles parlay was completely wrong save for Jalen Hurts’ rushing yards.

Each Friday, we will share seven NFL picks for the weekend. These can be prop picks, spreads, totals, alternate lines, moneylines, teasers, same game parlays, etc. We like to think outside the box instead of just telling you to play the moneyline of big favorites. You can play any of the picks as singles or parlay your favorite choices together. I do tweet winners from time to time before island games kick off, by the way.

Note: Picks are ranked in order of confidence (highest to lowest).

1. Giants at Lions: Dan Campbell After a Loss

One of the best streaks in the NFL has been Dan Campbell’s Lions going 13-0 ATS/SU after a loss since 2022. They’ve had to do it a few times already this year, and here they are again at home as a 10.5-point favorite against the lowly Giants. It is unclear if Jameis Winston will start, or if rookie Jaxson Dart will return.

But instead of going with the spread streak to continue, I’m looking more at that Detroit offense bouncing back at home in the comfy dome after one of Jared Goff’s worst career games where he was 14-of-37 passing and the Lions scored 9 points on 12 drives.

If Dart is playing, don’t be surprised if that spread gets covered here as he’s been quite competitive for the Giants. But with a team total of 30.5 points, I love the Lions to score over that against a really horrible defense that’s allowed 4 teams already to drop 33+ points this year.

The Lions may not cover again, but I trust the offense to go over 30.5 points.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Lions Over 30.5 Points (-115) at FanDuel

Head coach Dan Campbell of the Detroit Lions — (Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images)

2. Bills at Texans: The 9-for-30 Revenge Game

We might as well get our say on Thursday night for a change. The Bills are a 5.5-point road favorite in Houston, the top scoring defense this year. Last year, Josh Allen completed just 9-of-30 passes for a career-low 30% completion percentage. His last three incompletions burned such little clock that the Texans got the ball back in great field position and kicked a walk-off field goal to win 23-20.

But the Bills can get their revenge here, though it is a tough defense to score against, and Allen could still be missing some top weapons like Dalton Kincaid and maybe Josh Palmer. He needs to lean more on James Cook this week, who had a tough matchup with Tampa on Sunday.

However, the Texans are not getting C.J. Stroud (concussion) back at quarterback yet since it’s such a short week. That means a third-straight start for Davis Mills, who has thrown the ball over 40 times for over 270 yards in consecutive games with a game-winning drive against the Jaguars and Titans.

But those are division games. This is Buffalo, and the key to beating Buffalo this year is running the ball very well. The Texans simply can’t do that with Woody Marks and company, which is why Mills has thrown it so much. Don’t be surprised if they try to run early and abandon it even though Buffalo is better against the pass and have made Patrick Mahomes and Baker Mayfield look rough the last two weeks with Sean McDermott taking over the defensive calls.

That 23-20 score sounds decent again even if the Bills are a 5.5-point favorite. But I’m ignoring the spread and going with the Bills to get the win while the under 43.5 points wins for a combo pick this Thursday night.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Bills ML & Under 43.5 Points (+150) at FanDuel

3. Steelers at Bears: Aaron Rodgers One More Time?

We know Aaron Rodgers has “owned” the Chicago Bears in his career with a 24-5 record, and he left one of those losses early with an injury. He’d love nothing more than to get one more win against this team in a year they’re doing well at 7-3 and the Steelers (6-4) are in the thick of a division title chase with Baltimore.

However, Rodgers injured his wrist on Sunday and left the game for the second half. His status is questionable, though some feel like he’s leaning towards playing as the wrist isn’t on his throwing hand and he doesn’t need surgery.

But while it might be a risky game to bet now without knowing who the quarterback will be, I can’t help but picture this as a close slugfest between two teams at the top of the NFL in defensive takeaways and who have usually tried to win close games when they’re having good years. The Bears just had their fifth fourth-quarter comeback of the season last week.

Between the turnovers, Rodgers’ health, and the pass rush likely making Caleb Williams dance around all day, it just feels like a low-scoring battle in the outdoor November weather that should be decided either way by 1-10 points.

And that’s my pick. Each team’s alternate spread by +10.5 points and the under 44.5 points.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Steelers +10.5 & Bears +10.5 & Under 44.5 Points (+165 at FanDuel)

4. Browns at Raiders: Shedeur Sanders By the Script

It’s probably fitting that Cleveland quarterback Shedeur Sanders will make his first NFL start in Las Vegas. It’s the place many, me included, thought he’d end up in the draft. Maybe in the first round, certainly more likely in the second or third, and shockingly not even in the third, fourth, or fifth before Cleveland finally broke down and drafted him.

But he has a long way to go to become an effective player, and the odds are stacked heavily against him ever doing so. I also think he’s a sack machine, and if you can find that special before gameday where you can bet on the Raiders to get 5+ sacks in this game, I’d jump all over that.

But for now, I’m going with Maxx Crosby to record a sack and for the Raiders to win this game as a 3.5-point home favorite. The Raiders have played horrible football for much of this year, but they did beat the Patriots in Week 1, they handled a poor Tennessee team too, and they were in a 10-7 game with Denver in Denver.

The Browns could certainly get to Geno Smith, which is why I’d also throw a Myles Garrett sack into the mix if you can get the odds for that before Sunday. But I trust Geno more than Shedeur, and I’ll take Pete Carroll’s team to get the win here.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Maxx Crosby to Record a Sack & Raiders ML (odds TBD at FanDuel)

5. Jets at Ravens: Lamar Jackson’s Bounce-Back Game

For the first time in his NFL career, Lamar Jackson didn’t throw a touchdown pass and was intercepted multiple times against Cleveland. But I think he’ll bounce back against a poor Jets defense that does manage yards better than points, which is why I like the idea of Lamar throwing multiple touchdowns without even throwing for over 207.5 yards, something he’s done twice this year already.

I also will take the alternate spread of Ravens -6.5 just to avoid any backdoor cover as they are known to struggle with big leads. But this game shouldn’t be that difficult for them as they look to get a winning record (6-5) for the first time this season.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Lamar Jackson Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns & Lamar Jackson Under 207.5 Passing Yards & Ravens -6.5 (+335 at FanDuel)

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND - SEPTEMBER 14: Lamar Jackson #8 of the Baltimore Ravens looks to pass during an NFL football game against the Cleveland Browns at M&T Bank Stadium on September 14, 2025 in Baltimore, Maryland. — (Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images)

6. Colts at Chiefs: The AFC’s Most Pivotal Game in 2025?

We might be looking at the AFC’s most pivotal game of the season on Sunday in Kansas City. It could either be the day the Chiefs (5-5) got their season on track, or the day it died as they stumbled to a losing record this late in the season.

Somewhat surprisingly, the Colts are a 3.5-point road underdog despite coming off a bye week at 8-2 with the best offense in the league, and they’re getting Charvarius Ward back at corner, and they had time for Sauce Gardner to learn the defense. They also play a lot of man coverage, which the Chiefs have struggled with, and they have defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo, who has been a thorn in Patrick Mahomes’ side going back to those battles with Cincinnati in 2021-24.

Anarumo is one of the few who have shut down Mahomes in crunch time, and even some of Mahomes’ wins against him needed penalties on the final drive to help the Chiefs get a game-winning field goal.

On Sunday, Denver coach Sean Payton referred to the Chiefs as a first-half team, which is with merit as they are 0-5 at game-winning drive opportunities and 0-5 in close games this year after ripping off 17 straight wins (NFL record) in such games in 2023-24.

That’s why we’re going to start our 5-leg parlay with an alternate first half total of over 23.5 points. Think 14-10 at halftime as both offenses, which rank No. 1 and No. 2 in yards per drive, should come out strong and want to make statements.

Here’s the full 5-leg parlay:

First Half Over 23.5 Points
Travis Kelce Over 51.5 Receiving Yards
Alec Pierce Over 54.5 Receiving Yards
Patrick Mahomes Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Colts +10.5

The Colts allow over 72 receiving yards per game to tight ends, the second most in the NFL this year, so look for Travis Kelce to have a big game at home as he seems like the only receiver Mahomes truly trusts at this point. He’s also been playing very well since Week 3. Then with Mahomes only throwing one touchdown in the last two games combined, look for him to answer at home with multiple touchdown tosses.

You might not know Alec Pierce as a household name, but he’s been a beast this year with over 54.5 yards in 6-of-8 games as he’s a great deep threat and averages 11.3 yards per target. He’s in great shape to beat the Chiefs’ defense on a deep play-action target as they’ve been getting killed on play-action this year per stats from NFL Pro:

Chiefs’ defense allows a league-worst 10.8 yards per attempt on play-action passes
Chiefs have a league-worst 1.4% sack rate on play-action passes and rank 31st in pressure rate (22.9%).
Chiefs rank No. 2 in EPA/pass on plays that don’t have play-action.
Daniel Jones leads the NFL with 1,017 passing yards on play-action passes, so it is something he’s very used to doing this year.

Then there’s the Jonathan Taylor angle. He’s been so dominant this year and had almost 300 yards from scrimmage against the Falcons. The Chiefs usually hold up well against the running game and the top backs. If you remember, the only thing they did well in Super Bowl 59 was shut down Saquon Barkley.

But this year has been a mixed bag for the Chiefs’ run defense:

The Chiefs let Barkley rush for 88 yards, which is actually one of the best games for the 2025 version of Saquon.
They held Derrick Henry (42 yards) in check, but backup Justice Hill burned them for 76 yards on mostly a long touchdown run with the game in the bag.
They held Jahmyr Gibbs in check with 65 yards on 17 carries.
Cam Skattebo had 10 carries for 60 yards just as he was on the verge of breaking out for the Giants.
Buffalo’s James Cook rushed for 114 yards, snapping a nice streak of no 100-yard rushers for the Chiefs.

The betting line for Taylor is 90.5 yards in this game, so I’m not touching that one. He’s certainly explosive enough to get most of that on one play, but I think if you’re the Chiefs, you have to prioritize getting pressure on Jones, who has been sacked 15 times in the last three games and 12 times in the last two games. He was only sacked 7 times the first 7 games, so that’s probably the game on defense if they can pressure Jones into mistakes or not.

But then you get into this issue of the Chiefs likely having to beat man coverage from a coordinator who usually does well against them. The Colts have at least one takeaway on defense in every game this season. They could use Sauce Gardner on Rashee Rice to take him away, and maybe the Chiefs actually luck out if Xavier Worthy’s knee injury were to keep him out of action so they could use Tyquan Thornton and Hollywood Brown more, who have more productive numbers in this offense.

Throw in the weird hex the Colts seem to hold over the Chiefs for the last 30 years, including the 1995 playoff loss (Lin Elliott game), the no punt playoff game at Arrowhead in 2003, Andy Reid blowing a 38-10 playoff lead to Andrew Luck in the 2013 wild card, the 19-13 game in 2019, and Chris Jones getting flagged for saying a bad word in 2022 in a loss in Indy, and I’m staying away from picking a winner on this one as both teams really need this game.

The Chiefs need it to keep their playoff hopes alive. The Colts need it to show they are the team to beat in the AFC after hearing the Patriots and Broncos get the love during their bye week. They’re 8-2 as well and have a chance to really lower some Arrowhead aura by walking in there and getting a win.

That’s why my last leg is for the Colts +10.5 alternate spread to hit as the team either wins outright or doesn’t lose by more than 10. Maybe the Chiefs even win a one-score game for a change, which would probably be for the best. Another blowout would just keep those questions in focus if they can close or not this year as they’ve been pretty anti-clutch after being one of the most clutch teams ever in 2024 in close games.

Really looking forward to this one and wish it was a 4:25 game instead of buried at the 1 PM slate and regional coverage.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – 5 Legs (+716 at FanDuel)

7. Best of the Rest NFL Week 12 Parlay

Finally, we have a 4-leg parlay that is really just the final picks we have left over that didn’t fit in above. I guess if there was a theme to these picks, it’d be NFC team dominance for 2025 shining through. Mix and match as you see fit with above.

Seahawks -7.5 1st Half Spread at Titans (+105): Tough game to judge since the final projected score is about 27-13 or 27-14 Seattle, so I think the safest pick is to take Seattle to lead by at least 8 points at halftime with the first-half spread. We’ve seen them blow the doors off teams by halftime like the Saints, Commanders, and Cardinals. Tennessee shouldn’t score much in this game and Sam Darnold will bounce back after a pick parade in LA.

Packers -6.5 vs. Vikings (-110): The Vikings swept the Packers last year but J.J. McCarthy doesn’t appear to be any match for this defense, led by Micah Parsons. I think he struggles on the road, and I like Jordan Love to have a complete game as the Packers finally cover one of these big spreads that they haven’t gotten all year.

Eagles -3.5 vs. Cowboys (+100): A rematch from opening night, that weird game where Jalen Carte was ejected for spitting at Dak Prescott before the first snap from scrimmage. Then there was just a field goal scored in the second half as Philadelphia won 24-20. Well, with the way the Eagles have defended the Packers and Lions the last two weeks, I’m not betting against that defense right now. I think the offense comes to life against the Cowboys, and they find another way to cover the spread and beat Dallas to inch even closer to ending that long drought (since 2004) of no team repeating as NFC East champions.

Matthew Stafford Over 247.5 Passing Yards (-114 at FanDuel): For Sunday Night Football, it could be a good one between the Rams and Buccaneers. But Sean McVay’s MO over the years against Todd Bowles’ defense is to throw the ball, and that’s even more obvious when they are playing the run as well as they have this year. That’s why I love the over for Matthew Stafford in passing yards after a quiet game last week against Seattle.

Scott’s NFL Pick: 4-Leg Parlay (+1369 at FanDuel)

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