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Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: 2025 Divisional Round

Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar16/01/2026 - 02:55 pm
(Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images)

The 2025 NFL playoffs have gotten off to a great and competitive start as we expected. The drama could even pick up a level this week with the Divisional Round and four more great games. We’ve already done full preview for the NFC and AFC games, so let’s get to our NFL picks for the games below.

In recapping our Wild Card picks, you had to laugh. We were 14-5 on our 19 picks for the first five games, but that Pittsburgh-Houston game was a bloodbath where I was 0-for-5. The game that ended Mike Tomlin’s career in Pittsburgh and possibly Aaron Rodgers’ NFL career. But otherwise, we were cooking pretty good outside of Green Bay’s collapse to Chicago nuking that spread pick.

Each Friday, we will share seven NFL picks for the weekend. These can be prop picks, spreads, totals, alternate lines, moneylines, teasers, same game parlays, etc. We like to think outside the box instead of just telling you to play the moneyline of big favorites. You can play any of the picks as singles or parlay your favorite choices together. I do tweet winners from time to time before island games kick off, by the way.

1. Rams at Bears: Another Caleb Comeback?

For my first pick, I’m going with the second half to be the highest-scoring half in Rams vs. Bears. Look for the weather to be a factor, the offenses may be sluggish at the start, but we know the Bears can warm up in the fourth quarter with the best of them. They scored 25 points in the fourth quarter last week.

That’s why this matchup is scary for the Rams, who have already blown huge leads in the second half as well as giving up five game-winning drives in general. They’ve been poor at closing games, and that’s when Caleb Williams is at his best when he absolutely needs to be.

That’s why I’m going with the idea that the first half will be low scoring, then the Bears start to get the majority of their points late again, helping the second half to a higher number of points than the first half.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Highest Scoring Half – 2nd Half (-115) at Bet365

2. 49ers at Seahawks: No Kittle, Here’s Some Bits

I was going to go a boring route and just say I like the under 44.5 points after these teams played a 13-3 game two weeks ago and a 17-13 game to start the season. But I think we can spice things up a bit more than that for a 4-leg parlay

Sam Darnold Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns – He has 0 passing touchdowns in two games against the 49ers this year. He had one touchdown pass in his playoff debut last season, and I still don’t trust him to be a big-time player in January. Even if he plays well, the running backs could do the scoring, so I feel very good about under 1.5 passing touchdowns for Darnold in the biggest game of his life.

Jake Tonges 3+ Receptions – He has to step up at tight end with George Kittle (Achilles) out. We only got to really know him in Week 1 in Seattle when Kittle was injured and he was huge on the game-winning drive by scoring that tough touchdown. I think this is an easy line for him to clear as the main tight end now.

Kyle Juszczyk 1+ Receptions – Pad the odds a bit with what should be a no-brainer play to get the fullback a catch as the 49ers need all the help they can get.

Under 51.5 Points Alternate Line – Teased this up a touchdown from the 44.5. I just don’t see Darnold lighting up the scoreboard, and the 49ers have twice held this team to 13 points. I also don’t see the 49ers scoring a ton against a tough defense. Shouldn’t have to sweat this one.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – 4 Legs (+211) at FanDuel

3. Texans at Patriots: Sack Party

When the Texans played at New England last year, they sacked a rookie Drake Maye four times. It was Will Anderson Jr. with 3.0 sacks and Danielle Hunter with 1.0 sack that day.

This year, the Houston pass rush is even better and both of those guys are playing great football. This team doesn’t need to blitz to get pressure because of those guys. While you can argue the Patriots have upgraded their offensive line by drafting left tackle Will Campbell, he struggled last week against the Chargers and allowed 2.0 sacks.

With Houston being even better and the defense knowing it has to play great to make up for the loss of Nico Collins on offense, I expect a great effort from the Houston defense. Drake Maye has been a bit of a sack merchant this year, and he showed some real hesitation to pull the trigger last week in his first playoff game, and he was strip-sacked twice with the Patriots fortunate to recover the second one before the Chargers could return it for a touchdown.

But with Campbell and Hunter coming to town, I like both to get a sack. You can even play it up as a special on FanDuel and get +360 odds for Hunter and Campbell to combine for 2.75+ sacks.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter to record 1.0+ sacks (+167) at FanDuel

4. Bills at Broncos: Wideouts? We Don’t Need No Stinkin’ Wideouts

As I said in the AFC preview, I really don’t think the Bills need a ton of wide receivers to beat the Broncos. If running back Ty Johnson plays, they’ll have six of their seven leading receivers on the season active. Everyone but Josh Palmer, who hasn’t been a big factor anyway.

Josh Allen is going to use who he has, and given the way the Broncos give up above-average production to tight ends, it needs to be a good game for Dalton Kincaid. That’s why I’m using him as part of a 3-leg parlay on Buffalo receivers:

  • Dalton Kincaid Over 37.5 Receiving Yards – He’s gone over 37.5 yards in 6-of-13 games this year but had 47 in the playoff game last year, and this really needs to be a game where he shows up. Take the pressure off the wideouts.
  • Brandin Cooks Over 27.5 Receiving Yards – He had the big catch last week and can still get open. Clearly the 2nd-best wide receiver option Allen has right now.
  • Khalil Shakir 5+ Receptions – Very productive playoff receiver who probably won’t catch 12 targets again this week, but he should be able to get a handful to pace the offense.

Throw in Buffalo ML for a real odds boost if you want as I just believe this Buffalo team matches up very well with Denver.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – 3 Picks (+352) at FanDuel

5. Pick Parade Parlay

Call me a hater but it’s usually just good analysis of figuring out which game a quarterback will throw an interception. We were successful last week with Brock Purdy and Trevor Lawrence, but we’re back with a 4-leg parlay picking one quarterback in each game to throw a pick. Heck, given the matchups and conditions, all eight might throw one this week, but here’s our top four:

  • Bo Nix vs. Bills (-120 at FanDuel): Nix has been picked in 9-of-17 games this season, including 5-of-9 games at home. The Bills got Trevor Lawrence early and late last week, and I think they’ll get Nix at least once here with their best part of their defense.
  • Sam Darnold vs. 49ers (-120 at FanDuel): Darnold hasn’t thrown a pick or touchdown against the 49ers this year, but I think with his new injury and the pressure of the game he’ll make a mistake after throwing 14 in the regular season.
  • Drake Maye vs. Texans (+100 at FanDuel): He was picked against the Chargers on a deflection last week, but I think the Texans can force him to throw one he’ll wish he had back as they’ve intercepted 14-of-18 quarterbacks faced this year. It all comes back to pressure.
  • Matthew Stafford vs. Bears (-108 at FanDuel): I think the 37-year-old playing in maybe the coldest game of his career with a bad finger against a defense that leads the NFL in interceptions will toss one to Chicago for old sake. He hasn’t been as careful with the ball since Week 13.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Interception Parlay – 4 Legs (+1194) at FanDuel

Minnesota Vikings passes the ball in the second quarter of the game against the Houston Texans at U.S. Bank Stadium on September 22, 2024 in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
(Photo by Stephen Maturen/Getty Images)

6. The Underdog Parlay

I suggested this one on Twitter the other day, and I think it’s worth a play. Taking all four underdogs against the spread. Some even suggested to add the Miami Hurricanes +8.5 for Monday night’s National Championship Game, but college football has been a different beast where favorites covered the last six title games. Let’s just stick to the NFL.

The divisional round is a little different these days as No. 2 seeds no longer have the first-round bye. We watched Chicago and New England play at home last week where they’ll be again this weekend.

But if you’re curious, since 2002, there have been X seasons where you could have bet all four underdogs on divisional round weekend and won your bet. You don’t have to go back far to find such a season:

  • 2024: 3-0-1 (push) ATS, 2-2 SU
  • 2006: 4-0 ATS, 2-2 SU
  • 2003: 4-0 ATS, 2-2 SU

Just last year, the underdogs were 3-0-1 ATS in the divisional round. The Commanders won in Detroit for a big upset, the Bills won as 1-point home underdogs against Baltimore (Mark Andrews dropped 2PC), the Rams (+6.5) lost by 6 points in Philly, and the Texans got a push in Kansas City with a 9-point spread.

That 2003 postseason was a special divisional round with the Panthers beating the Rams in double overtime (Steve Smith), the Patriots edged out Tennessee 17-14, the Colts won a 38-31 game with no punts in Kansas City, and the Eagles came back after a 4th-and-26 against Green Bay to win in overtime.

Granted, we haven’t seen a divisional round any time recently where the underdogs were 4-0 SU, but there were some years they were 3-1, including the most recent example being the greatest divisional round ever in 2021. That was the one that ended with the 13 Seconds Game between Kansas City and Buffalo.

Some favorite is probably going to win this week, but I still think all four matchups are uniquely built for the underdog to have major value, so I’d take them all against the spread. But I’ll quickly remind you of what those talking points are from our previews and why I like the dogs this week:

Bills +1.5 at Denver: Big quarterback advantage for Buffalo, 31-7 wild card win last year, bad finish to the regular season for Denver, and the Bills don’t really need wide receivers with their running game, tight ends, Allen’s legs, and their pass defense against Bo Nix.

49ers +7 at Seattle: 49ers are only team to hold Seattle under 18 points (did it twice), Sam Darnold’s track record in big games, Brock Purdy’s success in the playoffs, Trent Williams back after missing Week 18, and Kyle Shanahan has never had a poor playoff game in 13 tries as San Francisco head coach except for the day Purdy injured his elbow on the first drive. Throw in a Thursday oblique injury for Darnold in practice and I’m sold here.

Texans +3 at New England: In the postseason, trust a dominant defense that’s been great all year against a suspect offensive line and team that’s been beating up on bad opponents. No Nico Collins is a concern, but the Texans can do this if Stroud protects the ball better.

Bears +3.5 vs. Rams: The Bears are home, they’re aggressive on fourth down, it should be really cold, they beat the Rams last year, they know how to win in the clutch, the Rams have blown 5 games already, and the Bears lead the league in takeaways. Also, when it’s under 15 degrees in NFL playoff history, the home team is 23-2 at covering a +3.5 spread.

Let’s get nuts. The dogs are barking all weekend.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Underdog Parlay – Bills +1.5 & 49ers +7 & Texans +3 & Bears +3.5 (+1261) at FanDuel

7. NFL Picks for Divisional Round Touchdown Scorer Parlay

Finally, we have a 4-leg parlay with +2411 odds for touchdown scorers this weekend. We were going to choose one player per game but didn’t want to risk the Patriots-Texans game (I lean Woody Marks for Houston at +150 and don’t sleep on the defense at +800 given their playoff history).

  • Josh Allen (-105 at FanDuel): Denver has the No. 1 red zone defense, but Josh Allen is not going to be denied in this game. No funny business; Tush Push for the win again.
  • Christian McCaffrey (-125 at FanDuel): The guy has scored at least one touchdown in all 8 playoff games in his career. With George Kittle out, CMC redeems himself for the dropped pass turned interception in Week 18 and finds the end zone here.
  • Kyren Williams (+125 at FanDuel): In freezing weather like this, there’s no time for throwing 1-2 yard touchdown passes to wide receivers. Just run it in and Kyren Williams is the guy to do that for the Rams despite some short-yardage flaws this year.
  • Kyle Monangai (+220 at FanDuel): Not to be outdone, the Bears also need to run it well here. Monangai has two of the three 1-yard rushing touchdowns for the Bears this year (D’Andrew Swift has none). I’m going to trust him to score here.

Scott’s NFL Pick: 4-Leg Parlay (+2411) at FanDuel

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Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar16/01/2026 - 02:55 pm