AFC EastAFC SouthNFL

Who Are the Super Bowl Contenders and Pretenders in This Wild 2025 NFL Season?

Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar02/12/2025 - 10:49 am
(Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images)

The 2025 NFL season has moved into December, and it has been a wild 13 weeks with plenty of surprises from Super Bowl contenders struggling to some new blood in the AFC trying to turn the clock back a decade when the Patriots, Colts, and Broncos were among the most relevant teams. That’s a notable departure from the usual suspects in the Chiefs, Bills, and Ravens, who are not guaranteed a single division title between them this year.

Not to be outdone, the NFC is currently led by the Chicago Bears (9-3) in the No. 1 seed position a year after they finished 5-12, so that’s another big story as the Philadelphia Eagles’ title defense has been heavily criticized each week.

But the overarching story of this 2025 NFL season has been the way last year’s best teams and this year’s Super Bowl favorites have by and large struggled as a group. Much of this came to a head in Week 13 when we saw the Lions, Chiefs, Ravens, and Eagles all lose as favorites on Thanksgiving and Black Friday.

Meanwhile, the Patriots and Broncos have both won 10 games in a row, remarkable streaks for teams who started the year 1-2. Throw in the Bears going 9-1 since an 0-2 start, and you have some very unlikely names vying for the No. 1 seeds. Think coaching doesn’t matter? Should the Bears and Patriots finish No. 1, it’d be the first time since the 1981 Bengals and 49ers where both No. 1 seeds had losing records the previous year.

Alas, we have five weeks to go before that is decided, but it sure is getting interesting as these teams keep winning while the preseason favorites seem to be getting worse at the moment.

The NFL is no stranger to yearly fluctuation at the top with teams falling off quickly and new contenders emerging. The draft, salary cap, and schedule rotation basically encourages a level of parity. Maybe we’ve actually experienced too much consistent winning with six of 2024’s eight division winners being teams who won the division in 2023 too, including every AFC division winner, and a 4-year run for Tampa Bay and 2-year run for Detroit. Maybe this is just regression to the mean.

TAMPA, FLORIDA - NOVEMBER 9: Drake Maye #10 of the New England Patriots prepares to throw during the fourth quarter of an NFL football game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium on November 9, 2025 in Tampa, Florida.
(Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)

But it is bordering on historic to see this many top teams fall off at the same time. To be fair, we’re only going into Week 14, almost nothing has been clinched, and for all we know it could be a Chiefs vs. Eagles Super Bowl in February after a No. 7 at No. 5 AFC Championship Game between the Bills and Chiefs. Probably not, but it’s still technically possible.

However, we thought this was a good time to look at why so many teams we expected to be the best aren’t right now, and which of these new contenders we should really buy into.

Are We Experiencing a Historic Changing of the Guard in the NFL This Year?

The truest marker of greatness in the NFL is sustaining it over multiple seasons. That’s why so few can pull it off because few are that great. You usually need the right people at quarterback and head coach, and a competent defense.

With the way this game works, you could have a team who takes advantage of an easy schedule, a fortunate run of winning the turnover battles, and pulling out several more close games than they lose in a season. That can produce a great record, though the teams who capitalize on those things usually don’t fare well in the playoffs, and when the regression to the mean hits the next year in those areas, we see them fall back to .500 or worse, an afterthought again.

It’s not uncommon for an NFL team to be a one-year wonder, a flash in the pan, who fades away as quickly as they broke onto the stage. Think of the 2020 Cleveland Browns (11-5), who won a playoff game in Kevin Stefanski’s rookie season with Baker Mayfield winning some wild shootouts, then they were 8-9 a year later and didn’t have another winning season until 2023 with many new players in place. 

You could also think of Case Keenum’s miracle season with the 2017 Vikings, Brian Daboll winning Coach of the Year for the 2022 Giants because of a ton of close wins in a 6-1 start, the 2001 Bears getting absurd turnovers to win games on the way to a 13-3 season, or Robert Griffin III’s rookie season with the 2012 Redskins before his injury in the playoffs.

The teams we expect to see continue winning are those teams like the Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, and Eagles who have a proven track record of 4-plus years of success.

Yet, if you look at the nine teams who won at least 11 games in 2024, most of them have either already lost more games than they did last year or are on track to do so. Very few have actually sustained or improved their success last year:

  • 2024-25 Chiefs: From 15-2 to 6-6, the Chiefs are only +104 to make the playoffs via FanDuel odds.
  • 2024-25 Lions: From 15-2 to 7-5, the Lions are only +130 to make the playoffs.
  • 2024-25 Eagles: From 14-3 to 8-4, the Eagles are tied for the third-best Super Bowl odds (+900) in the NFC and have already lost more games than they did last year.
  • 2024-25 Vikings: From 14-3 to 4-8, the Vikings dumped Sam Darnold for the unholy trio of J.J. McCarthy, Carson Wentz, and Max Brosmer at the most important position.
  • 2024-25 Bills: From 13-4 to 8-4, the Bills have already lost more games with Josh Allen playing the distance than they did last year when he was named MVP.
  • 2024-25 Ravens: From 12-5 to 6-6, the Ravens have already lost more games than last year.
  • 2024-25 Commanders: From 12-5 to 3-9, the Commanders are an afterthought going into December after reaching the NFC Championship Game last year.
  • 2024-25 Chargers: From 11-6 to 8-4, the Chargers are trying to hang onto a wild card spot in Jim Harbaugh’s second year.
  • 2024-25 Packers: From 11-6 to 8-3-1, the Packers look to be the only team in this group that’s playing better this year thanks in large part to the Micah Parsons trade helping them sweep Detroit. Still lost to the Browns and Panthers as big favorites but that’s 2025 for ya.

To put some numbers to this, if you took every NFL team with 11-plus wins since realignment in 2002 and compared them to how they did the following season, then they decline by an average of 2.6 wins, or 16.2 percentage points in winning percentage.

The nine 2024 teams who won at least 11 games had a collective winning percentage of .765. Right now, those teams are collectively 58-49-1 (.542), so that’s a decline of 22.3 points in win percentage. That’d be the second-largest decline in the 32-team era after 2007-08 (-27.1).

What changed so much from 2007 to 2008? A year after going 16-0, Tom Brady tore his ACL in Week 1, and the Patriots finished 11-5. Brett Favre also retired in Green Bay (before returning to the 2008 Jets), and behind a young Aaron Rodgers, the Packers went from 13-3 to 6-10 after losing a ton of close games. Those two examples had a lot to do with that decline.

For this year, a couple of declines are obvious. For as fast as Jayden Daniels (Commanders) and Sam Darnold (Vikings) helped their teams overachieve in 2024, Darnold’s departure and Daniels’ injuries in 2025 are leaving those teams in the dust during bad seasons.

TAMPA, FLORIDA - JANUARY 12: Jayden Daniels #5 of the Washington Commanders smiles after an NFL football wild card playoff game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium on January 12, 2025 in Tampa, Florida.
(Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)

But it gets a little more complicated when you talk about the Chiefs, Ravens, Bills, Chargers, and Eagles. These five teams were specifically covered here in March when we talked about turnover regression and how that could negatively affect them in 2025 since so much of their success last year was built on protecting the ball and/or recovering a lot of fumbles.

  • Buffalo was expected to get hit the hardest here after going +24 in turnover differential, including an absurd +17 in fumble recoveries including the playoffs. This year, the Bills are minus-2 in turnovers, neutral on fumbles, and they’ve turned the ball over 11 times in their last four games alone after 8 giveaways in 20 games all of last season.
  • You saw the Ravens turn the ball over five times on Thanksgiving against the Bengals a year after the offense had just 11 giveaways and Lamar Jackson threw four interceptions.
  • Justin Herbert has already thrown 10 interceptions this season after he had 3 last regular season.
  • The 2025 Eagles are +5 in turnovers after they were +12 in the postseason alone on their way to winning the Super Bowl. They have not had a game where they forced at least 3 turnovers yet after doing so three times in their playoff run.
  • Turnovers are low on both sides of the ball for the Chiefs (8 giveaways, 10 takeaways), but they’ve had some killer turnovers in the red zone in losses to the Eagles, Jaguars, and Broncos.

Still five games to go, but it’s possible the seven teams who won at least 12 games last year don’t get there this season.

What Is Happening in This 2025 NFL Season?

In the following sections, we’re going to look at why each AFC division has been turned upside down, and a general look at the tight NFC race.

Why the Kansas City Chiefs Are About to Lose the AFC West Throne to the Denver Broncos

As always, let’s keep it real about the Chiefs. They’re the posterboys for “falling off” this year even if we can debate we’re seeing the worst results from the Chiefs, Ravens, and Bills in several years. Never mind the Bills and Ravens had higher Super Bowl odds coming into the season than Kansas City, who many were desperately picking to not make it to a fourth-straight Super Bowl.

A lot of people have a vested interest in killing this dynasty after seven straight AFC Championship Games, nine straight AFC West titles, and a team that’s been in 5-of-6 Super Bowls since 2019.

The simplest explanation for why the Chiefs are 6-6 and in real danger of missing the playoffs is that they’ve failed to execute in big moments against good opponents far too often in 2025.

We’re not going to entertain a Super Bowl loss hangover or any absurd officiating conspiracy. We could point out the six-game suspension for Rashee Rice or that Travis Kelce ran into Xavier Worthy on the first pass of the season, knocking him out for three weeks. But even then, they should have been better to start the year.

After going on a record 17-0 streak in 2023-24 in games decided by one score, the 2025 Chiefs are 1-6 in such games, losing six games by a combined 25 points to solid teams.

That doesn’t mean the Chiefs don’t have some serious flaws in coaching with schematic failures and personnel decisions. But the fact is if some players would just step up in the big moments in these games like they have in past years, the Chiefs would be right there in the mix for the best record in the NFL again.

By some raw stats, the Chiefs are performing better in 2025 than they have in 2023 and 2024. But here are some other stats to show why things haven’t gone as well in the win-loss record.

The offensive design has grown stale and Andy Reid has done a bad job of scheming open receivers for big plays for Patrick Mahomes. Maybe more than ever, the Chiefs are generating some great offensive numbers because of how well Mahomes has worked on broken plays (backyard football). This offense is No. 1 in yards per drive, No. 2 in points per drive, and Mahomes is No. 2 in QBR largely because of his scrambles for first downs and his desperation heaves down the field for big plays going back to Week 1 in Brazil.

But the problem with relying on Mahomes magic is it’s led to a lack of consistency, rhythm, and identity for this offense. So, when it comes to those big plays before halftime or some huge spots in the red zone, they’re struggling to score and make the crucial plays that swing games.

For example, the offense is having its worst season of the Mahomes era on third down, converting just 41.3% of the time (ranked 10th in the league). Combine that with a defense that is ranked 26th on third down, allowing teams to convert 43.0% of the time (ranked 26th), and for the first time in the Mahomes era, the Chiefs are at a negative differential on third downs:

  • 2025: 41.3% converted, 43.0% allowed (-1.7% difference)
  • 2024: 48.5% converted, 43.3% allowed (+5.2% difference)
  • 2018: 47.2% converted, 41.5% allowed (+5.7% difference)
  • 2023: 43.6% converted, 37.1% allowed (+6.5% difference)
  • 2020: 49.0% converted, 41.0% allowed (+8.0% difference)
  • 2022: 48.7% converted, 38.3% allowed (+10.4% difference)
  • 2019: 47.6% converted, 37.1% allowed (+10.5% difference)
  • 2021: 52.2% converted, 40.2% allowed (+12.0% difference)

It’s been a down year for Chris Jones and the pass rush, and giving up crucial third-and-longs on defense in one-score games in the fourth quarter has been a big culprit in the team’s underperforming record. Again, they don’t make the critical plays enough this year.

The Chiefs are 3-0 with an 81-16 scoring differential against the three losing teams they’ve faced (Giants, Raiders, Commanders). But they are just 3-6 against winning teams, and they are 0-5 on the road when they allow more than 20 points to winning teams as that’s where the defense has been at its worst.

The oddsmakers are giving the Chiefs about a coin flip of hope for making the playoffs as a wild card. The silver lining is that their road woes shouldn’t hurt them against the Titans and Raiders, two of the worst teams this season and the only road games left for the Chiefs.

But they’re likely going to have to run the table and go 3-0 at home against the Texans, Chargers, and Broncos. Those are strong defensive teams, and right off the bat they gave the No. 1 defense from Houston this Sunday night in a game where Mahomes may be missing multiple starting offensive linemen. Sounds like those Super Bowl losses again with a season on the line against elite pass rushes and multiple linemen out of position. Not good.

Even if the Chiefs recover and extend their NFL record to a 13th season with a winning streak of at least five games, they almost certainly won’t win the AFC West. That’s because they have real competition this year from the Denver Broncos, who are close to being 12-0 despite playing in some of the uglier games this season like the 13-11 win in London against the Jets or the 10-7 win against the Raiders on a Thursday night. Even Sunday night was a 27-26 overtime battle with Marcus Maritoa and the Commanders that came down to a batted pass on the game-deciding two-point conversion.

But that’s the difference this year. The Broncos have made almost every clutch play and Bo Nix has already led six game-winning drives this season. They’re doing things similar to how the 2024 Chiefs were 15-1, and they’re doing it with a great pass rush.

DENVER, CO - JANUARY 5: Quarterback Bo Nix #10 of the Denver Broncos walks off the field after a 38-0 win against the Kansas City Chiefs at Empower Field at Mile High on January 5, 2025 in Denver, Colorado.
(Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)

The 2025 Broncos are the first team in NFL history to win 10 of their first 12 games after trailing in the 10 wins. They’ve won seven of their last eight games by 1-to-4 points, and they already have comebacks against the Eagles and Chiefs, last year’s Super Bowl teams.

The Broncos got a taste of the postseason last year when they ended their drought by getting in on the final weekend after beating the Chiefs’ backups. They didn’t last long after losing badly in Buffalo on wild card weekend, but they might be the No. 1 or No. 2 seed this year.

The Chiefs’ AFC West streak is essentially over as they trail by more than four games with just five games left. The reason the Patriots were able to win the AFC East for 11 straight years (2009-19) is they never had a team like this to deal with in the division. One that keeps winning almost every close game possible, and that’s the value of a coach like Sean Payton changing the culture in Denver.

It’s hard to take the Broncos seriously as a Super Bowl contender because of how close to the vest they play. But it’s hard to argue that they’ve made the plays when they had to against a similar tough schedule to the Chiefs, who they already beat and could possibly eliminate from the postseason in Week 17’s rematch in Kansas City on Christmas night.

People fantasized for years how the AFC West was catching up to Kansas City. But it’s finally happened in 2025, and it only took the least clutch Chiefs team and an all-time run of comebacks by Denver to make it happen.

Forgive me if I’m skeptical of this continuing in 2026, but the Chiefs have lost their right to be penciled in as the AFC West winner each year. Until they start showing they can consistently execute in the critical moments again.

The Easy Schedule for the AFC East That Buffalo Was Supposed to Capitalize on Is Going New England’s Way

This was supposed to be Buffalo’s year as the Bills were favored for the most wins and the No. 1 seed in the AFC thanks to a schedule that hooked them up with home games against seemingly every contender (Ravens, Chiefs, Buccaneers, Bengals, Eagles, etc.) they have to face.

But lurking in the shadows were Mike Vrabel and the Patriots, who also had the easy schedule boost in the AFC East. Plus, the Patriots don’t have to face the Chiefs, Texans, or Eagles. Instead, they get the Raiders, Titans, and Giants.

Granted, they blew the Vegas game in Week 1, but it’s been almost all smooth sailings ever since as Vrabel and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels have put second-year quarterback Drake Maye in a great situation to thrive and be part of the MVP discussion. In fact, Maye’s MVP case might even be stronger than Allen’s was last year, which is not a good sign for the long-term prospects of the Bills owning the AFC East after a 5-year reign that started after the demise of the New England dynasty. Maye literally is their version of Allen as the team hoped for all along.

But the Patriots are 11-2, and Maye was able to deliver his only game-winning drive of his career in Buffalo, which could go a long way in winning the AFC East for this team. The rematch is in New England in Week 15 after the Patriots have this bye week to prepare for it too.

Meanwhile, the Bills have been rough this year despite the 8-4 record. We noted the turnover regression earlier, and Josh Allen is only ranked 13th in QBR, his worst season since 2019. We’ve already seen the Bills lose as considerable favorites to the Patriots, Falcons, Dolphins, and Texans with some double-digit losses in there as well.

Sean McDermott’s defense has been hit or miss. Allen’s weapons have either been injured or underwhelming as Keon Coleman has been a healthy scratch in games instead of stepping up in Year 2.

Unless the Bills can catch the Patriots in the division, it doesn’t look like this team will be hosting any playoff games this year, the last at Highmark Stadium. Given the expectations that this could be their turn as the No. 1 seed, a wild card after instilling confidence in the Patriots would be a very bad result for this team not just in 2025 but going into next year and beyond.

Guess it wasn’t so crazy when the Patriots were favored to win 11 games despite coming off a 4-13 season back when the schedule was released in May. We were right about the schedule helping out. Just seemed to have picked the wrong team that was going to take the biggest advantage from it.

The Baltimore Ravens Are Fumbling the Moment

If it wasn’t Buffalo getting over the hump and getting to a Super Bowl, it was supposed to be Baltimore’s year in 2025. Maybe they’d finally stop losing the ball in January and get the job done with a great offense and a defense that could play better for the full season instead of a strong finish.

But the Ravens have been frustrating their fans since opening night when they blew a 15-point lead in the fourth quarter in Buffalo. Derrick Henry had a crucial fumble in the final 4:00, and he did it again against the Lions in a game where the Ravens were punched in the mouth at home. The Ravens also had their annual loss to the Chiefs, which Lamar Jackson left with a hamstring injury.

INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA - NOVEMBER 25: Derrick Henry #22 of the Baltimore Ravens dodges a tackle against Elijah Molden #22 of the Los Angeles Chargers during the third quarter in the game at SoFi Stadium on November 25, 2024 in Inglewood, California.
(Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

They were the 32nd-ranked scoring defense early in the season, but started to turn that around at least. But the offense was a joke without Jackson, and signing Cooper Rush instead of going with a better fit in Tyler Huntley was a mistake. They could have won the Rams game with Huntley starting instead of Rush.

Ever since Jackson returned, he hasn’t looked right and has now gone three straight games without a touchdown pass, which is remarkable given he had a 34-game streak (including playoffs) with a touchdown before that. But he’s clearly not right, and he played his worst game he’s ever had against the Bengals on Thanksgiving, a 32-14 home loss.

Go figure, when the offense was hot, the defense was horrible. Now that the defense is good again, the offense has gone in the tank. That lack of complementary football is why coach John Harbaugh may not survive this season, especially if the Ravens blow the AFC North to Pittsburgh, who they still have to face twice, including this Sunday.

It’s quite possible the Ravens get a home playoff game as the No. 4 seed, but is there any trusting this team with the way they’ve played all year? That wild card game could even be against No. 5 Buffalo, so that’d be an interesting rematch from Week 1 and the playoffs last year.

But hoping the Steelers continue to struggle is Baltimore’s best path to the playoffs. Given how this team has already lost to the Bills and Chiefs, don’t be shocked if they lose to the Patriots and Packers too coming up. Don’t be shocked if they’re one-and-done as only a bad division race is going to help them qualify after a 1-5 start.

The Houston Texans Are Trying to Lead with Defense to Recapture AFC South from Pesky Colts, Jaguars

The AFC South race is something else as the Houston Texans were favored in the preseason to win it for the third year in a row. That’s because we trusted C.J. Stroud as the best quarterback in the South, and DeMeco Ryans knows how to coach that defense.

Well, the defense has been elite since Week 1 and is getting even stronger with recent wins against the Bills and Colts. But the Texans were 0-3 because of how pathetic the offense was. Then they perked up against Baltimore’s defense at the right time, but Stroud suffered a concussion and missed three weeks. They went 3-0 with Davis Mills, including an insane comeback from 19 down in the fourth quarter against Jacksonville.

That quarter has the Texans back in this race, along with the way they crushed Josh Allen (8 sacks) and held the Colts down in Indy on Sunday. But this is a legitimate three-way race, and you might have to say the Jaguars should be the favorites given their dominance at home against the Colts and remaining schedule.

The Texans have to go to Arrowhead this Sunday night in what is effectively a playoff game. They lost there twice late in the season last year, and Patrick Mahomes should be in playoff mode here.

Meanwhile, the Colts were the toast of the division for half a season with Daniel Jones reinventing himself with a great job of leading the No. 1 offense. But then the sacks started coming, then the turnovers in Pittsburgh, and now the Colts are 8-4, Jones has a fractured fibula, Sauce Gardner is out with an injury, and that remaining schedule is tough.

INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA - OCTOBER 26: Daniel Jones #17 of the Indianapolis Colts warms up before the NFL 2025 game between Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium on October 26, 2025 in Indianapolis, Indiana.
(Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images)

If the Texans can get past the Chiefs in Arrowhead, they might just run this table and win the AFC South for a third year in a row despite the third-best odds (+340 at FanDuel) to do so right now. The Colts (+130) are slightly favored over the Jaguars (+140), but Sunday should go a long way in how this plays out as the Colts are in Jacksonville where they haven’t won since Andrew Luck’s early days over a decade ago, and we’ll see if Houston can beat the Chiefs and stay alive.

I’d be on the Jaguars today, and yes, they can’t be trusted in January one bit. But again, turnover regression on defense (9 takeaways last year and already 20 in 2025) and better coaching (rookie Liam Coen) can go a long way in this league of quick turnarounds.

The Philadelphia Eagles Repeat: 2023 or 2024 in a Crowded NFC?

Lest we forget, the Philadelphia Eagles are the defending champions and were a favorite to repeat this season. But the NFC is so stacked that the current No .7 seed (49ers are 9-4) have the same number of wins as the current No. 1 seed (Bears are 9-3). With respect to Bryce Young doing his game-winning drive thing for the 7-6 Panthers, let’s quickly run down the top nine teams in the NFC.

Chicago Bears (9-3): Again, coaching matters. Ben Johnson has helped the Bears become a more explosive offense, Caleb Williams has cut down his sacks, and he’s delivered five game-winning drives in exactly the kind of games this team would lose under Matt Eberflus. The defense also has forced a league-high 26 takeaways, a staple in any good Chicago season in the 21st century. They may not be Super Bowl worthy this year, but Johnson has changed the culture in a hurry.

Los Angeles Rams (9-3): I hyped this team up in July as Sean McVay’s most balanced yet and the best bet to stop the Eagles from repeating. Matthew Stafford’s back injury scared me away a little, but the Rams have played very well despite blowing three close games they easily could have won, including a blown 19-point lead in Philadelphia.

Davante Adams has delivered, and the run game and defense are strong around Stafford. They’ll be a problem in the playoffs, but losses like Sunday in Carolina show they’re still beatable. Also lost to Mac Jones and a battered San Francisco team. Only two Super Bowl winners have ever lost multiple games as a 9-point favorite in the last 50 years.

Philadelphia Eagles (8-4): Offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo may be the most hated ma in Philly as he’s done a bad job replacing Kellen Moore. The Eagles were favored because of their elite offense and Vic Fangio’s defense, but injuries hurt the offensive line and secondary. Saquon Barkley is having a terrible year after rushing for 2,000 yards, they don’t use A.J. Brown properly, and Jalen Hurts is not consistent enough.

They also disappear for whole halves at a time, and they go three-and-out at an insane rate. It’s hard to see this team finishing in the playoffs. They’ll be lucky not to repeat 2023 and blow the division again to Dallas as no one’s repeated in the NFC East since 2004.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-5): Baker Mayfield got some early MVP buzz for his game-winning drives, but the Buccaneers are 2-4 since a 5-1 start as injuries have piled up. They’ve gotten some skill players back around Mayfield like Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin, but assuming they hold off the Panthers in the NFC South, it’s hard to see this team advancing past the wild card. A close divisional round loss (like 2023) is their ceiling.

Seattle Seahawks (9-3): A very intriguing team with a great defense and the Sam Darnold connection with Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been fantastic. Alas, Darnold in big games is the issue, and we’ve seen it already as he had big turnovers in losses to the 49ers, Bucs, and four picks against the Rams in the biggest game of the year so far. That’s the fear every time with him, but this team has a lot of the right stuff.

Green Bay Packers (8-3-1): My preseason Super Bowl pick, the Packers have swept the Lions after getting swept by them last year. Losing tight end Tucker Kraft (ACL) is a huge loss, but Micah Parsons has been great, Jordan Love is killing it on third-and-long, and Matt LaFleur is one of the best coaches. They have a real shot to unseat Chicago here this week and go on to a very high seed and get this done in January. But you do worry about the offense lacking trustworthy skill players as that’s been their downfall in low-scoring losses already.

San Francisco 49ers (9-4): It’s incredible how Christian McCaffrey has remained healthy on a ton of touches while so many other 49ers are on the injury report. Unfortunately, losing Nick Bosa and Fred Warner for the year makes it hard to trust the defense to get the team home for the Super Bowl in February. Watching Brock Purdy against Carolina is why you get nervous trusting him too. But they have experience beating the Rams (this year included) and the Eagles, so you can’t say there’s no chance if they get into the tournament.

Detroit Lions (7-5): Yep, the 15-2 team would be out of the playoffs if they started today. It was always going to be tough replacing both coordinators, and when you look at how Detroit struggled to run in Philadelphia while Ben Johnson’s Bears dominated the same defense a few weeks later, it just makes you think about that coaching change shifting the power in the NFC North. Also, a bad time for an Amon-Ra St. Brown injury with Dallas up next. Should be worried about Detroit for the postseason right now.

Dallas Cowboys (6-5-1): It would be one hell of a story if Dallas came back to make the playoffs and go on a deep run after trading away Micah Parsons and losing teammate Marshawn Kneeland to suicide. That seems to have rallied the team together, and Dak Prescott is thriving in Brian Schottenheimer’s offense with George Pickens in town. Throw in some traded parts on defense that are stepping up, and maybe this team can run the table. But it starts with a tough one in Detroit this Thursday night.

There’s a real “choose your fighter” vibe here as you can make the case for and against every team. The Rams probably offer the most complete team with great weapons, top defense, and a coach and quarterback who have done it before together. But I still believe it can be Green Bay’s year too.

What’s looking increasingly likely each week is that the Eagles are not ready for a repeat. Nick Sirianni’s biggest knock is he can’t get it done with a nobody at coordinator. He’ll have to hire someone much better for 2026.

Conclusion: What Does It All Lead to?

Again, almost nothing has been clinched yet as even the Browns (3-9) and Commanders (3-9) are technically still alive for the postseason. But this 2025 season certainly has a chance to lead to some huge shake-ups and overreactions around the league as we could see some of these long-time coaches get fired after disappointing results, and it could lead to some shaky 2026 predictions if people buy into the wrong teams and learn the wrong lessons from this season.

If you see a team this year beating up on a weak schedule, chances are that won’t be the case in 2026 where they’ll face a first-place schedule and three likely tougher games. If you see a good team losing a lot of close games this year, you can probably bet on them to do better in 2026.

But we are maybe seeing some evidence that a rookie quarterback contract is a huge advantage as teams like the Bears, Patriots, and Broncos are winning big behind second-year quarterbacks on rosters who aren’t paying a fortune to just a few players like the quarterback, his favorite receiver (or two), and an edge rusher or left tackle.

That’s why you have to strike now if you’re one of those teams as it gets a lot harder to win when just a few players are taking up a huge percentage of your cap. But writing off the Chiefs, Ravens, and Bills for the long-term in the AFC in favor of the Patriots, Broncos, and Colts would likely be foolish. Indianapolis is already starting to crack after spending half a season as the No. 1 offense.

Then in the NFC, the Five-Year Rule may be in effect for Detroit with Dan Campbell and Jared Goff, and their best shot was likely the 2023 NFC Championship Game. But I wouldn’t write off Philadelphia either even if this season ends in a disastrous finish much like 2023 did. They just need to hire a better offensive coordinator like they did when they got Kellen Moore for that year.

Coaching matters. The salary cap is real. Success is often fleeting at best in this league. Enjoy it while it lasts.

It should be a wild finish to February’s Super Bowl in San Francisco, but I don’t think 2025 will go down as a changing of the guard season. Not unless you’re going to show me a Broncos vs. Patriots AFC Championship Game with the winner taking on Ben Johnson’s Bears after they slay the Packers.

Then we can revisit this new NFL landscape, but even for the world’s greatest soap opera, that might be too much dramatic change at once.

Related Articles:

Tags
Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar02/12/2025 - 10:49 am