Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 18

Scott Kacsmar02/01/2026 - 03:26 pm

CLEVELAND, OHIO - DECEMBER 28: Aaron Rodgers #8 of the Pittsburgh Steelers throws the ball during an NFL football game against the Cleveland Browns at Huntington Bank Field on December 28, 2025 in Cleveland, Ohio. — (Photo by Perry Knotts/Getty Images)

The NFL has made it to Week 18, closing one of the wildest regular seasons in history with so many new contenders after several favorites fell off hard in 2025. It’s always a tough week for NFL picks since you never know the motivation factor or how long starters will play (if at all), but we have picks for all the top games, including Panthers vs. Buccaneers, Seahawks vs. 49ers, and Ravens vs. Steelers.

In recapping our Week 17 picks, the weekend started and ended well with a Justin Herbert interception and Chrisitan McCaffrey lifting the 49ers to a win (+160). But our Myles Garrett parlay didn’t work out at all, Bryce Young was a disaster against Seattle, and while our Falcons-heavy SGP was looking great, Kirk Cousins didn’t throw for enough yards to finish the job. Our 4-player touchdown scorer parlay was also upended by Saquon Barkley while everyone else scored.

Each Friday, we will share seven NFL picks for the weekend. These can be prop picks, spreads, totals, alternate lines, moneylines, teasers, same game parlays, etc. We like to think outside the box instead of just telling you to play the moneyline of big favorites. You can play any of the picks as singles or parlay your favorite choices together. I do tweet winners from time to time before island games kick off, by the way.

Note: Picks are ranked in order of confidence (highest to lowest).

1. Browns at Bengals: Myles Garrett vs. Joe Burrow

About the only thing on the line for Browns at Bengals is the single-season sack record. Myles Garrett has 22.0 sacks and is trying to break the record of 22.5 sacks, set by other players, including T.J. Watt, who did it in 15 games in 2021. Garrett will need 17 games to get there after coming up empty against the Steelers, ending a 9-game streak with at least 0.5 sacks.

But while Garrett has 0.5 sacks in his last two games, Joe Burrow is a quarterback he’s used to sacking, and Burrow is no stranger to taking sacks. He’s been a little better about it this year, but he’s not going to fret over giving up a record to Garrett here in an otherwise meaningless game.

The odds aren’t available yet, but when they are, I’m taking Garrett to get a sack and the Bengals to still win anyway as a 7.5-point favorite. Their defense actually hasn’t been that bad in recent weeks against the pass, and Shedeur Sanders is still a rookie who makes big mistakes when looking for big plays.

So, Garrett can celebrate his record, maybe even put it out to 24.0 sacks, but the Bengals still win the game, the most fitting way to end the season for both Ohio clubs.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Myles Garrett to Record a Sack & Bengals ML (odds TBD) at FanDuel

2. Lions at Bears: Ben Johnson Gets to Flex

We have a worst-to-first division winner after the Bears (11-5) have taken the NFC North behind rookie coach Ben Johnson. The Detroit Lions have fallen from 15-2 to 8-8 this year, and now Johnson’s Bears can wrap up a No. 2 seed by wining against his former team.

The teams met in Week 2, and the Lions dropped the Bears to 0-2 by winning 52-21 in the dome. But the Lions have lost three games in a row, including a pathetic showing on Christmas when they turned the ball over six times and lost to a Minnesota team that had 3 net passing yards.

I think this is a game where Johnson flexes his offense, which scored 38 points on the road in San Francisco last week, and they take it to a defeated Detroit team that is only playing for pride.

I’ll take the Bears to cover the 3-point spread at home and drop the Lions to a losing record.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Bears -3 (-104 at FanDuel)

3. Seahawks at 49ers: Battle for the No. 1 Seed

Saturday night is the big one with the No. 1 seed in the NFC on the line between the Seattle Seahawks (13-3) and San Francisco 49ers (12-4). The Seahawks are a 1.5-point road favorite, but they lost a 17-13 home game in Week 1 to the 49ers after Nick Bosa forced Sam Darnold to fumble at the 9-yard line in the final minute.

Every Seattle loss has been in the final minute this year. Also, the Seahawks don’t have to worry about Bosa (or Fred Warner) as they are on injured reserve, and we’ve seen the 49ers struggle on defense in recent weeks, having to win some shootouts over the Colts and Bears.

But the 49ers are also rolling offensively with Brock Purdy playing as well as any quarterback right now. He’s had 10 total touchdowns in his last two games and the 49ers haven’t lost in the last six games. They are getting George Kittle back, and his backup (Jake Tonges) had the first few catches of his career in Week 1 when Kittle was injured, and he caught a game-winning touchdown from Purdy too.

Christian McCaffrey is peaking at the right time, and the Seattle offense has also been struggling more in the last month or two. If you protect the ball against them and don’t give up return touchdowns – looking at you, Rams – then you can limit that offense on the scoreboard. All three of Seattle’s touchdown drives in Carolina last week started inside the opponent 30.

Kyle Shanahan has done a wonderful job all year with one of the most banged-up teams with stars missing a lot of time. But they have enough stars active this week, they know how big home-field advantage all the way through the Super Bowl is this year, and there’s the elephant in the room.

Darnold may have gotten over his Rams slump with a comeback win in Week 16, but for 50 minutes, he looked like the big-game disappointment he’s been in his career. He was in this spot last year, facing the Lions in prime time in the final game of the year with the No. 1 seed on the line, and he played poorly and lost big with Minnesota. He’s arguably surrounded by a better team this time, but again, he doesn’t come into this game on a hot streak as a passer.

Purdy does, and I think Shanahan wins this game at home like he did in 2019 to deny Seattle the No. 1 seed in prime time, and the 49ers keep this thing rolling into the playoffs as the hottest team in the NFC.

I’m taking the 49ers to win and for Ricky Pearsall to have at least 30 yards. He torched them for over 100 yards in Week 1, and he’s had 85 and 96 yards in his last two games as well.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Ricky Pearsall 30+ Receiving Yards & 49ers ML (+154) at FanDuel

4. The Most Fitting Way to End the 2025 NFC South Race

The worst division in the NFL this year has been the NFC South. Tampa Bay (7-9) was supposed to win it again, had a strong start built on close wins, then has completely fallen apart, going 1-7 since the bye week. The Panthers now have a chance to win it by winning in Tampa Bay on Saturday, but let’s face it, Carolina isn’t a good team either. They’re 8-8 and have been outscored by 67 points.

Down the stretch, the Falcons and Saints have actually played better football than these teams, but neither of them can win the division unfortunately. However, the Falcons and Saints could play a role in determining who wins this thing, and that’d be the funniest and most fitting outcome this weekend.

It’s the one we’re going with too. Here’s the scenario:

If the Panthers win on Saturday, they win the division with a 9-8 record.
But if the Panthers lose on Saturday, then Tampa Bay (8-9) has to make sure the Saints beat the Falcons on Sunday to win the NFC South.
If the Falcons beat the Saints as a 3-point home favorite, then you have a 3-way tie with the Panthers, Buccaneers, and Falcons all 8-9.
In that scenario, the Panthers win the NFC South even if they lose this last game.

And that’s our pick here: Tampa Bay wins Saturday, gets eliminated by a Falcons win on Sunday.

It’s not only funny but there’s logic behind it. Carolina beat Tampa last time after Baker Mayfield got mixed up with Mike Evans on a game-ending interception. Let’s just assume these vets play better at home, live up to the moment, and the Bucs can take comfort in stopping the run again and forcing Bryce Young (terrible last week) to throw to beat them.

SEATTLE, WASHINGTON - OCTOBER 05: Baker Mayfield #6 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers looks on after the game against the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field on October 05, 2025 in Seattle, Washington. — (Photo by Soobum Im/Getty Images)

Then on Sunday, the Falcons already beat the Saints 24-10 a few weeks back, and that was on the road. That was also against rookie Tyler Shough, who led his offense to 3 points that day (Kirk Cousins threw a pick-six). The Falcons are 7-9 and have been great at home with wins over the Bills and Rams. They could use this win to help Raheem Morris keep his job for next season by finishing on a high note, and we know Bijan Robinson is an absolute beast on the ground.

Plus, Chris Olave had a blood clot in his lungs discovered this week – best wishes to him for a speedy recovery – and he’s out this week, leaving Shough without his best weapon against a good pass defense and pass rush.

So, yeah, one way or another, I think the Panthers win the NFC South for the first time since 2015. But I think it’s going to happen in the most fitting way possible with no one surpassing an 8-9 record.

The argument for why we need to stop letting a division winner automatically host a playoff game as the NFC South did this in 2022 as well. It’s nonsensical and doesn’t reward winning in this league.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Parlay – Buccaneers ML & Falcons ML (+160) at FanDuel

5. Chiefs at Raiders: Last Ride for Travis Kelce?

Sunday could very well be the final NFL game for Kansas City tight end Travis Kelce, a first-ballot Hall of Famer and no worse than a top two tight end in NFL history. While nothing is official yet, with Kelce getting married to Taylor Swift in June, Patrick Mahomes coming off a torn ACL, and a time for changes ahead in Kansas City, this feels like a great time for Kelce to hang them up instead of coming back for an age-37 season.

His last game will be in Vegas against the lowly Raiders. Kelce is just 10 yards away from 13,000 receiving yards in his career, and I think the Chiefs try to get him to it as soon as possible even if it means calling a few screens and shovels out of the gate with third-string quarterback Chris Oladokun starting again.

The odds aren’t out yet, but when they are at FanDuel, I’m taking Kelce to get his 10 yards in the first quarter. And if this is the end for him, then it’s been a pleasure to watch his career.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Travis Kelce 10+ Receiving Yards in 1st Quarter (odds TBD at FanDuel)

6. Blowout City Parlay

For our next pick, we have a 4-leg parlay of three moneyline winners at home in games with double-digit spreads, and one spread pick in a familiar matchup from the NFC East:

Cowboys -3.5 at Giants
Texans ML vs. Colts (+10.5)
Jaguars ML vs. Titans (+12.5)
Broncos ML vs. Chargers (+11.5)

The Cowboys have owned the Giants in Dak Prescott’s career outside of his 2016 rookie season when they swept him. But look for Dallas to flex its offensive muscles on the road against one of the league’s worst defenses as they get to 8-8-1 to finish this season. The Giants are also 0-9 at game-winning drives, so they have been terrible all year in close games, including a 40-37 overtime loss in Dallas in Week 2.

SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA - JANUARY 22: Dak Prescott #4 of the Dallas Cowboys looks on during the national anthem prior to an NFL divisional round playoff football game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Dallas Cowboys at Levi's Stadium on January 22, 2023 in Santa Clara, California. — (Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images)

Otherwise, we’re looking at some easy picks here to wrap up playoff seeds. The Texans can put pressure on the Jaguars for the AFC South, but I expect Jacksonville to wrap it up by beating the Titans at home. The Texans should have no problems on defense with the Colts starting Riley Leonard now that they’re eliminated.

Finally, the Chargers are resting Justin Herbert, which is the right call by Jim Harbaugh. The Broncos need a win to get the No. 1 seed wrapped up at 14-3, and while they could always make any game low scoring and close, I think they get it done at home with few problems.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Cowboys -3.5 & Texans ML & Jaguars ML & Broncos ML (+177 at FanDuel)

7. Ravens at Steelers: Is This the End?

Finally, our last pick of the regular season is for the final game on Sunday night. It’s the AFC North battle between the Baltimore Ravens (8-8) and Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7). The stakes are clear: The winner is the No. 4 seed and the loser goes home.

That might be a permanent home for John Harbaugh if coach loses this game. Mike Tomlin’s job is likely safe even if this becomes another late-season collapse after the Steelers failed to win at Cleveland last week to avoid this must-win game where they are a 3.5-point home underdog.

But we know the Steelers have been getting the best of the Ravens in close games, including one in December. The other issue here is the one that’s been there all season really for Pittsburgh, but it’s really rearing its ugly head now and that’s a lack of receivers for Aaron Rodgers, who is playing what could be his final NFL game if the Steelers don’t win.

One of the most wide receiver-centric passers in NFL history, the Steelers thought it was a good idea to trade for D.K. Metcalf, trade away George Pickens who had a career year in Dallas, and give Rodgers a long list of tight ends, a position he’s never favored to throw to in his career.

That’s why it’s been such an up-and-down season for Rodgers and the offense, because they have no real identity. It’s worked in recent weeks with some good runs, the YAC by the receivers has been pretty great this year, and the protection has improved over time. But it’s still not a trustworthy offense as evident by the 6 points in Cleveland last week.

Of course, injuries and suspension are hurting the Steelers at the worst time. Metcalf is suspended again this week for punching at a fan in Detroit two weeks ago, and his absence was huge in Cleveland. Rodgers completed just 8-of-21 passes for 60 yards to his other wideouts like Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Scotty Miller, and Adam Thielen. Almost as bad, tight end Darnell Washington broke his arm, so he’s out this game too.

It’s stacking up against Rodgers at the worst moment. Meanwhile, the Ravens are expected to get Lamar Jackson back after his injured back knocked him out of the New England loss. He didn’t play in Green Bay, a game where Tyler Huntley and Derrick Henry did a great job of scoring 41 points to keep this season alive.

Now, Jackson returns to face the Steelers in Pittsburgh where he’s really never had a good game. Jackson is 1-3 as a starter in Pittsburgh, and even in the one win in 2019, he threw three interceptions and needed a short field after a fumble in overtime to get the game-winning points. In his last three starts, he’s never reached 20 points and has thrown one pick in each game.

The other story here is that it appears T.J. Watt (lung) is coming back in time for Pittsburgh’s defense. He can be the difference maker in a game-altering pressure on Jackson. But the Steelers will have to focus on the run with Derrick Henry coming off another masterpiece with 216 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns. With temperatures in the 20s and Jackson not likely to be 100% with that back, this should be a game where Henry carries the load for the offense.

This is the 40th meeting between Harbaugh and Tomlin, and it could be the last. Tomlin is 22-17 SU in those games, aided by a 9-3 run since 2020. Tomlin is also 12-2-1 ATS as an underdog of 3+ points against Harbaugh. But the two games he didn’t cover were both last season with the Ravens having Henry.

Also, Aaron Rodgers is 0-3 in his last season-extending games, all home losses (2020 NFC Championship Game vs. Tampa Bay, 2021 NFC divisional vs. San Francisco, and 2022 Week 18 vs. Detroit where his final pass was an interception in a 20-16 loss where the Packers would have been a wild card team with a win).

Moment of truth time, here is my 4-leg parlay for Ravens vs. Steelers to end 2025:

Lamar Jackson Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted
Aaron Rodgers 200+ Passing Yards
Derrick Henry 75+ Rushing Yards
Ravens ML

The quarterbacks struggle, but even without his best receivers, Rodgers goes down swinging, throwing for 200 yards against a defense he had a season high 284 passing yards against. But Henry runs for at least 75 yards, and the Metcalf injury is ultimately the undoing of the Steelers in these games as the Ravens get the road win and win the AFC North, eliminating their bitter rival in the process.

From 1-5 to a division title, the Ravens pull off the improbable.

Scott’s NFL Pick: 4-Leg Parlay (+1200 at BetMGM)

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