Now that it’s Week 15 in the 2025 NFL regular season, we have a four-game run to the playoffs as the bye weeks are done. We’ve been tracking the award races since the summer, and we made our first-quarter picks and midseason picks weeks ago. Now it’s time for the final quarter update of the latest odds for the NFL’s awards.
It’s been a crazy season, and you don’t have to look any further than the Colts for proof of that. A month ago, we thought the Colts had a shot to dominate the 2025 NFL awards. Today, they’re giving retired 44-year-old Philip Rivers a workout at quarterback and may finish 8-9.
Good luck trying to figure out the playoffs this year, but we still have a month before we have to make those predictions. For now, let’s just focus on the award races, which have mostly settled down to a few players with some obvious games that should make or break their cases at the end here.
Table of Contents
NFL Most Valuable Player (MVP) Award
- Preseason pick: Joe Burrow (+600)
- First quarter pick: Patrick Mahomes (+650)
- Midseason pick: Patrick Mahomes (+150)
Current odds leaders (via FanDuel):
- Matthew Stafford (-160)
- Drake Maye (+200)
- Jordan Love (+1000)
- Josh Allen (+1400)
- Dak Prescott (+7500)
With the Cowboys and Chiefs losing in Week 14, that puts a big dent in the prospects of Dak Prescott or Patrick Mahomes winning out, making the playoffs, and leading the NFL in QBR. Prescott still has some hope because of Dallas’ schedule and the way the Eagles are somewhat collapsing, but this is really a four-quarterback race with timid odds at best for Jordan Love and Josh Allen.
This is really about two quarterbacks, one in vintage form and one shiny new toy for the league.
MVP Race: Matthew Stafford vs. Drake Maye
Let’s start by pointing out that quarterback play is down this year. If the last two prime-time games couldn’t tell you that, then consider that we’re tracking for no quarterback to have a 75.0 QBR for the fourth time in the last five seasons. A 75.0+ QBR would rank in the top 32 seasons since 2006, for reference.
So, no one is running away with anything this year, and we really don’t have a case of a quarterback putting a team on his back with a middling defense to get to 12-plus wins. In fact, things have rarely been this cut-and-dry as they are in 2025 as the five best team records all rank No. 2 to No. 6 in scoring defense at the moment (that’s the Seahawks, Rams, Broncos, Patriots, and Packers).
That’s why we make do with what’s out there, and that’s why people are flocking towards Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye, quarterbacks who could be on No. 1 seeds who have better stats than other quarterbacks seeking No. 1 seeds (Bo Nix, Caleb Williams, Sam Darnold, etc.).
Stafford has the more traditional argument over Maye at the moment:
- Stafford leads the NFL with 35 touchdown passes, nine more than any other quarterback, as getting Davante Adams in the red zone has helped him in this area.
- Stafford also leads all 2025 quarterbacks in passing success rate (55.0%), passer rating (113.1), and ANY/A (8.37) which adjusts for sacks, something he’s only taken 17 of compared to 40 for Maye.
- Every MVP quarterback season since 1994 saw the team rank top 5 in points per drive on offense, and the Rams are No. 4 while the Patriots are No. 8 right now.
The MVP case for Maye is for less traditional things that usually don’t decide MVP awards:
- Maye is 23, in his second season, and his first under this coaching staff.
- The Patriots won four games last year and are currently 11-2 with a 10-game winning streak.
- Maye has the highest completion percentage (71.5%) in the NFL and leads all quarterbacks in CPOE (+8.2%) per NFL Pro, showing it’s not just a dink-and-dunk attack.
- Maye’s best receivers are a 32-year-old Stefon Diggs coming off an ACL injury and 31-year-old tight end Hunter Henry.
- While Maye has only 2 rushing touchdowns, he has a lot more rushing value (7th in rushing EPA per ESPN) than Stafford, who has yet to register a successful rush all season.
- The rushing disparity is likely why No. 3 Maye (72.2) ranks two spots higher than No. 5 Stafford (68.8) in QBR.
- Since Maye’s average sack only loses 4.45 yards (well below league average), his 40 sacks aren’t as hurtful as the average quarterback taking 40 sacks would be to his advanced metrics like EPA/QBR/ANY/A.
- While Maye has yet to throw for 300 yards in an NFL game, he has finished all 13 games with 203-294 yards (consistency). Stafford already has four games where he threw for under 200 yards, including just 130 yards in his big showdown with Seattle.
- Darnold (55.3%), Maye (51.4%), and Stafford (48.9%) have the three highest completion percentages on deep passes (20+ air yards) this season, though Maye ranks No. 1 in EPA/DB because he’s thrown 6 touchdowns to 0 interceptions on those plays. Keep in mind we’re talking about a sample size of 37-45 passes for those quarterbacks.
Each quarterback has only led one game-winning drive this season, though the advantage there goes to Maye for doing it in prime time as an underdog against the Bills, who he can beat for the division title this weekend.
Both quarterbacks are supported by good defenses. The Patriots are the only defense that hasn’t allowed more than 23 points to any opposing offense this year and the only team that hasn’t allowed more than 27 points in any game. The Rams are only 1-3 when they allow more than 20 points this year. Stafford had that rough 3-turnover day in Carolina last week. Maye’s lost at home to the Raiders (Week 1) and that big turnover day against the Steelers (also in September).
It’s not exactly 2011 Aaron Rodgers vs. Drew Brees or 2021 Aaron Rodgers vs. Tom Brady, but it’s what we have this year, and it isn’t going to be decided until this final quarter of the season.
The Games to Decide NFL MVP in 2025
Based on recent precedent, what happens in prime time late in the season can absolutely determine the MVP winner. When Tom Brady lost 9-0 to the Saints in 2021 on a Sunday Night Football game, that cost him the MVP and it went to Aaron Rodgers. When Brock Purdy threw four interceptions against Baltimore on Christmas in 2023, that shifted things over to Lamar Jackson.
There was even schedule news on Monday that could very well have this award determined by what happens in prime time in Week 16.
These are the games that will determine the MVP this year:
- Week 15 – Bills at Patriots (1:00 PM): Patriots clinch AFC East with a win
- Week 15 – Lions at Rams (4:25 PM): Stafford against his old team in what should be a heavily-broadcasted FOX game
- Week 16 – Rams at Seahawks (TNF): Huge game in prime time where the Seahawks can get revenge against Stafford and the Rams
- Week 16 – Patriots at Ravens (SNF): Just got flexed to SNF, so it’s Maye’s chance in prime time to shred the struggling Ravens
- Week 17 – Patriots at Jets (1:00 PM): Should be an easy win for Maye and the Pats.
- Week 17 – Rams at Falcons (MNF): The final Monday night game of the year puts the Rams on the road against a decent pass rush even if the Falcons are bad at getting and holding leads this year.
- Week 18 – Dolphins at Patriots (1:00): Miami coming to New England in January sounds like an easy day for Maye again.
- Week 18 – Cardinals at Rams (4:25): The Rams just shredded Arizona on Sunday, so this should be to complete the sweep.
Here’s what I think is going to happen. If Maye can pull off the Buffalo sweep this week, that’s huge for him. But even if he loses that game and plays at least decently, Week 16 is set up well for him to win MVP.
The Seattle defense is great. Stafford struggled in that first matchup at home, needing some short fields to score two touchdowns, and he only threw for 130 yards. The Rams almost lost despite Sam Darnold throwing four picks. With Stafford on the road in that one, let’s say the Seahawks get him into some turnover problems and win that game.
Then on Sunday night, Maye will go into Baltimore, and I think he’ll have his first 300-yard passing game as I said weeks ago. We’ll provide more research on that before next Sunday night, but the Ravens have a strong recent history of giving up career days to quarterbacks. Even on Sunday, Aaron Rodgers threw for 280 yards after not hitting 250 all year.
That’s the spot where days after a Stafford loss in prime time, Maye can take advantage of maybe the worst Baltimore team in the Lamar Jackson era and cement his MVP favorite status, never looking back as neither has to play a tough opponent in Weeks 17-18. Even then, Stafford is at a disadvantage as he could get sacked and struggle on the road in Atlanta in prime time, casting more doubt with voters while Maye cruises through the AFC East.
That’s why I think Week 16 is the one to circle, and you can probably get better odds by parlaying a Seattle win and a 300-yard passing game for Maye in a win than you’d get on betting either quarterback for MVP right now at these odds.
The schedule is absolutely something to consider with the MVP this year as the 2025 Patriots are playing what is statistically the weakest schedule of any NFL team since 1999. The Rams are trying to win a very tough division with the Seahawks and 49ers likely to win double-digit games.
But don’t think for a second the voters who gave Josh Allen an award out of charity last year over a superior Lamar Jackson won’t overlook this to award Maye if he brings down the Bills and Ravens, even in their weaker forms, in back-to-back weeks should Stafford slip up on the road against an elite team and defense like Seattle.
That’s why I think it’s going to be Maye for MVP in the end. Even if he doesn’t throw for 30 touchdowns. Even if Denver gets the No. 1 seed. That’s just where things are in this 2025 MVP race.
It’s gonna be Maye.
NFL Pick: 2025 NFL MVP Award – Drake Maye (+200 at FanDuel)
NFL Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY) Award
- Preseason pick: Bijan Robinson (+1400)
- First quarter pick: Bijan Robinson (+550)
- Midseason pick: Jonathan Taylor (-250)
Current odds leaders (via FanDuel):
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (-370)
- Jahmyr Gibbs (+600)
- Jonathan Taylor (+850)
- Puka Nacua (+2500)
- Christian McCaffrey (+2500)
Wow, what a difference five weeks can make in this league. I’d say Jonathan Taylor’s decline is a great reminder of why you should continue hedging and making new bets and parlays on awards throughout the season, but the fall of the 2025 Colts is going to be historic if things go as we expect.
From 7-1 to 8-5, the Colts currently don’t have a quarterback, haven’t rushed for 90 yards in four of the last five games, and they still have to face the Seahawks, 49ers, Jaguars, and close at Houston, the No. 1 defense. This situation is going to tank Taylor’s value and OPOY stock more than it already has as even Jahmyr Gibbs has surpassed him with some huge games against the Giants and Cowboys.
But I have to side with the Jaxon Smith-Njigba pick. The Seattle wideout is not only leading the NFL in receiving yards by a wide margin with 1,428 yards, but he’s doing it at a high efficiency rate with 11.8 yards per target (highest among anyone with 50-plus targets this season). He’s also doing it in an offense that is 31st in pass attempts, and he’s doing it for a team that has Cooper Kupp as the second-leading receiver with 473 yards, almost 1,000 less yards than JSN has.
So, he’s the only receiver you have to really worry about every week, and he’s still dominated with 11 90-yard games as only the Cardinals (79) and Vikings (23) held him under 90 yards this year.
I don’t think he’ll get to 2,000 receiving yards, but he’s going to finish No. 1 in that stat and in some historic fashion with his dominance on a team that’s not pass happy. Also a team that’s winning, so it’s not like he’s putting up numbers in garbage time.
NFL Pick: 2025 NFL Offensive Player of the Year Award – Jaxon Smith-Njigba (-370 at FanDuel)
NFL Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY) Award
- Preseason pick: T.J. Watt (+1000)
- First quarter pick: Micah Parsons (+360)
- Midseason pick: Micah Parsons (+145)
Current odds leaders (via FanDuel):
- Myles Garrett (-1500)
- Micah Parsons (+900)
- Nik Bonitto (+2500)
- Will Anderson Jr. (+2500)
No player award has a heavier favorite going into the final quarter than Myles Garrett and DPOY. It’s basically him or Micah Parsons for Green Bay. I really want to go full contrarian on this one, because standards matter, and it sure feels like we’re throwing away most of them with these odds so heavily favoring Garrett.
First, the precedent has been set that DPOY usually comes from a playoff team or at least a winning team. The Browns are 3-10 and just lost to the 1-win Titans. Granted, that has much less to do with the defense, which has been great. It is mostly to do with the bad quarterback play and the offense and special teams putting Garrett’s defense in bad field position.
But at the end of the day, there is a precedent, and only Jason Taylor for the 2006 Dolphins (6-10 team) was able to win this award in the 32-team era on a team with a losing record.
- Since 2002, 20-of-23 DPOY winners (87.0%) were on a playoff team.
- Since 2002, 22-of-23 DPOY winners (95.7%) played for a team with a winning record that year.
- Since 1988, 32-of-37 DPOY winners (86.5%) were on a playoff team.
- Since 1988, 33-of-36 DPOY winners (89.2%) played for a team with a winning record that year.
Jason Taylor is the only defender in the 32-team era to win DPOY on a losing team. His 2006 Dolphins finished 6-10 despite having a quality defense with Taylor leading the way.
Second, there seems to be a double standard involving Garrett. Voters and supporters in the past have claimed that pressures matter more than sacks like when they used pressures, which are subjective (sacks are objectively verified), to argue his case for this award over T.J. Watt and others in the past.
Yet, in 2025, the argument for Garrett is about sacks and how he’s going to break the record of 22.5 sacks, held by Michael Strahan (2001) and T.J. Watt (2021). It should be noted (on his 69th birthday today) that Al Baker is credited with 23.0 sacks in his 1978 rookie season for the Lions, but the official NFL record since 1982 is 22.5.
When Watt had 22.5 sacks in 2021, he only played in 15 games that season too. Yet when it came time to vote for DPOY, he was not a unanimous choice. He was dominant with 42 first-place votes, but a rookie Micah Parsons received 5 votes with 13.0 sacks and Aaron Donald (Rams) received 3 votes for a mid defense he had 12.5 sacks for.
What I’m getting at is if Parsons can get 5 votes as a rookie when Watt had 22.5 sacks in 15 games, why do we have to act like Garrett should be some unanimous choice for the 50 voters, no discussion necessary?
What, because he had 9.0 sacks in losses to the Patriots and Ravens with quarterbacks who have played like sack merchants this year? Throw in 3.0 sacks against the Las Vegas Swiss Cheese OL, and that’s 12 of Garrett’s 20 sacks (60%) coming in three games.
Parsons has been a big boost to the Packers, who have swept Detroit after getting swept by the Lions last year. They have a real shot at the No. 1 seed this year, and Parsons having 12.5 sacks has been beneficial to that.
But the kicker is that Garrett isn’t No. 1 in pressures, which used to be the golden stat for Garrett supporters before they switched to sacks in 2025. According to NFL Pro, which uses the NextGenStats data, Parsons is Mr. Pressure this year with 20 more than Garrett to lead all defenders:
- Micah Parsons in 2025: 12.5 sacks, 78 pressures (most in NFL), 20.5% pressure rate (highest among top 50 players with 32+ pressures), 34 quick pressures under 3.0 seconds (most in NFL).
- Myles Garrett in 2025: 20 sacks, 58 pressures (No. 6 in 2025), 16.7% pressure rate, 23 quick pressures under 3.0 seconds (fifth most).
Are sacks everything, or do pressures and winning still matter too? Garrett will probably ignore all run responsibilities to set the sack record at any cost in this final month, though he may be hard pressed to do it in 15 games like Watt did in 2021. He’ll also likely win this award, but I’m not selling out to take him at ridiculous -1500 odds. I’ll stick with Parsons, who I might end up voting for period if he finishes on a high note with big games to come against the Bears, Broncos, and Ravens.
NFL Pick: 2025 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Award – Micah Parsons (+900 at FanDuel)
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year (OROY) Award
- Preseason pick: Ashton Jeanty (+300)
- First quarter pick: Ashton Jeanty (+380)
- Midseason pick: Tyler Warren (+500)
Current odds leaders (via FanDuel):
- Tetairoa McMillan (-150)
- Jaxson Dart (+250)
- Emeka Egbuka (+600)
- Tyler Warren (+750)
- TreVeyon Henderson (+2200)
This award has been a bit of a mess all year as the quarterbacks haven’t really shined, the wideouts haven’t been great, and the running backs have largely disappointed. Tyler Warren is falling victim to the Colts’ offensive decline and not having a quarterback.
Emeka Egbuka (Buccaneers) was the early leader, but even with the offense getting some weapons back, his connection with Baker Mayfield has actually gotten much worse instead of better or steady.
- Egbuka in Weeks 1-5: 5 games, 25-of-38 (65.8%) for 445 yards, 5 TD, 11.7 yards/target
- Egbuka since Week 6: 8 games, 29-of-72 (40.3%) for 361 yards, 1 TD, 5.0 yards/target
I’m out on Egbuka and Warren. Jaxson Dart has done impressive things for the Giants, including 18 total touchdowns in just eight starts for an offense that lost its best wide receiver (Malik Nabers) and running back (Cam Skattebo). But can you vote for someone who might only start 12 games? That’s not a given either when you consider Dart is getting checked for a concussion in the blue tent every other week.
Carolina wideout Tetairoa McMillan was considered the best pure wide receiver in this class, the Travis Hunter alternative. Sure enough, he’s leading the class with 826 yards and has just as many touchdowns as Egbuka (6), who he is mirroring in the opposite direction with a slow start and working towards a strong finish.
As fate would have it, the Panthers and Buccaneers are both 7-6 with two upcoming matches to decide the NFC South winner. Should McMillan help the Panthers with big games there to get to over 1,000 yards for the season, I see the argument for him being solid in a weak class.
NFL Pick: 2025 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award – Tetairoa McMillan (-150 at FanDuel)
NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year (DROY) Award
- Preseason pick: Shemar Stewart (+2500)
- First quarter pick: Abdul Carter (+150)
- Midseason pick: Abdul Carter (+110)
Current odds leaders (via FanDuel):
- Carson Schwesinger (-1100)
- Nick Emmanwori (+500)
- Jalon Walker (+1800)
- Abdul Carter (+2700)
Just over a month ago, Carson Schwesinger was +1900. Today he’s the -1100 favorite. I know I never felt good about Abdul Carter as the favorite, and he’s up to 1.5 sacks now after the Patriots gifted him one last time out. But he hasn’t been that impressive given the draft hype.
You’d think the Browns were the 1985 Bears with Myles Garrett and Schwesinger given these award odds. Not a team that let Tony Pollard rush for 161 yards and two scores on Sunday for the most anemic offense in the NFL.
But it’s really Schwesinger’s award to lose now. He has two picks, 119 combined tackles (seventh among all defenders), and 10 tackles for loss (tied for 15th among all defenders).
Props to the Falcons for picking the two edge rushers with the most sacks in this class so far with James Pearce (6.0) and Jalon Walker (5.0). But between Atlanta’s disappointing season and them taking away from each other, they’re not going to win it.
Speaking of Atlanta, shout out to Seattle safety Nick Emmanwori, who got his first NFL interception in Atlanta on Sunday. If he got a pick-six off Matthew Stafford in prime time in Week 16 in that big game, that could be the kind of late steam to push him to this award.
But I’ll go with the default favorite in a weak class to this point.
NFL Pick: 2025 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award – Carson Schwesinger (-700 at BetMGM)
NFL Comeback Player of the Year (CPOY) Award
- Preseason pick: Aidan Hutchinson (+300)
- First quarter pick: Aidan Hutchinson (+230)
- Midseason pick: Aidan Hutchinson (+500)
Current odds leaders (via FanDuel):
- Christian McCaffrey (-140)
- Dak Prescott (+110)
- Aidan Hutchinson (+3000)
- Trevor Lawrence (+5000)
Well, at least we got some clarity on Daniel Jones. He won’t come close to winning this award in 2025, but he could be a favorite in 2026 after he tore his Achilles on Sunday in Jacksonville. It’s a real shame because he was playing the best he ever had this season, and he was closing in on a new deal that likely would have been a huge one for the Colts.
I’m still not sure what people see in the value of this award or how it’s supposed to be picked. Dak Prescott is playing very well, but he didn’t exactly have any special kind of injury to come back from this year. Aidan Huchinson was my pick all along, and he’s playing fine too, but I’m not sure it’s anything award worthy.
So, I’m going to go with the new favorite in Christian McCaffrey just because it’s a miracle he’s managed to stay healthy while just about everyone else in San Francisco has been injured this season. More than that, he’s managed to play all 13 games despite an insane workload that sees him leading the NFL with 322 touches. He had a league-high 339 touches in 2023, and that was in 16 games. This is 13 games.
Props to McCaffrey for coming back from Achilles tendinitis in both legs to lead the league in touches for a good year for the 49ers.
NFL Pick: 2025 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award – Chrisitan McCaffrey (-140 at FanDuel)
NFL Coach of the Year Award
- Preseason pick: Liam Coen (+1400)
- First quarter pick: Liam Coen (+650)
- Midseason pick: Shane Steichen (+100)
Current odds leaders (via BetMGM):
- Mike Vrabel, Patriots (-250)
- Liam Coen, Jaguars (+700)
- Mike Macdonald, Seahawks (+800)
- Ben Johnson, Bears (+900)
- Kyle Shanahan, 49ers (+1100)
- Dave Canales, Panthers (+1800)
Wow, I switched to Shane Steichen last time when he was +100, and today he is +6600 because of the Colts’ slide. My original pick, Liam Coen, is in the No. 2 position as he should win the AFC South if the Jaguars can hold off Houston.
I think the top six coaches, the only ones with current odds better than +4000, all have a legit case to win this season. This is usually not an award that goes to a No. 1 seed with an established coach. It usually goes to someone new who turned around a team that blew away expectations.
Maybe that’s the wrong way to do Coach of the Year, but in a season where change with new contenders is the dominant story, I think you have to make it one of these new coaches in their first year with a team.
So, Kyle Shanahan’s done well with an injured 49ers squad, but we still recognize the system and the key players. Mike Macdonald is doing great with Seattle, but at some point, can we give Sam Darnold some credit? They gave this award to Kevin O’Connell last season for going 14-3 in Minnesota with Darnold, but look at the “quarterback whisperer” this year.
Ben Johnson is doing a great job, and what other coach can say his team is winning in spite of quarterback play and be so honest and correct about it? If the Bears can win the NFC North given the competition and where things were last year, that’d be an automatic vote for me. But the odds are against that after Sunday’s loss where Caleb Williams threw a bad pick in a 28-21 game.
I still think Liam Coen has a nice argument in Jacksonville if the Jags can win the AFC South. They may also be known as the team that helped to keep the Chiefs out of the playoffs as that win in Week 5 was really the most egregious Kansas City loss in 2025. But people also tend to ignore winning Jacksonville seasons, so he may not get the attention to win it.
Mike Vrabel is the favorite in New England and already won this award in 2021 when he led the Titans to an unexpected No. 1 seed. This would be even more unexpected with the Patriots, but I still think there’s a chance they can slip up, and let’s not forget the easiest schedule since 1999 and how they were favored to win 11 games when the schedule came out in May.
I think I’m going the 2018 Matt Nagy route and giving it to Ben Johnson, who I didn’t want to pick in the preseason because I didn’t think he’d get the Bears to a winning record and the playoffs. But he’s so close.
NFL Pick: 2025 NFL Coach of the Year – Ben Johnson (+900 at BetMGM)
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