Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 13

Scott Kacsmar28/11/2025 - 01:33 pm

C.J. Stroud #7 of the Houston Texans — (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)

The NFL has already had an incredible start to the Week 13 slate with the Packers, Cowboys, and Bengals all winning as underdogs on Thanksgiving. If the playoffs started today, Thursday’s losers (Lions, Chiefs, and Ravens) would all be stuck at home despite combining to go 42-9 last season. But it’s been a crazy season and we dare to try more NFL picks with a Black Friday game and more important matchups this Sunday.

In recapping our Week 12 picks, it was almost an incredible week. The Lions eventually got over 30.5 points, but our 4-leg parlay with +1369 odds should have hit had the Eagles not blown a 21-0 lead in Dallas. Going with Seattle to cover the first-half spread in Tennessee instead of the full game spread was a smart move. Otherwise, it didn’t go well as the Colts and Lamar Jackson couldn’t get much going in their games, and the Steelers and Bears scored too many points for us.

Each Friday, we will share seven NFL picks for the weekend. These can be prop picks, spreads, totals, alternate lines, moneylines, teasers, same game parlays, etc. We like to think outside the box instead of just telling you to play the moneyline of big favorites. You can play any of the picks as singles or parlay your favorite choices together. I do tweet winners from time to time before island games kick off, by the way.

Note: Picks are ranked in order of confidence (highest to lowest).

1. Rams at Panthers: The Early Spread

On Sunday night, we watched the Rams utterly destroy the Buccaneers by halftime to the point where it was one of the most irrelevant second halves in NFL history. Then one night later, we had to watch the mistake fest between the 49ers and Panthers on Monday night with Brock Purdy throwing three interceptions by halftime at home.

The Panthers are a 10.5-point home underdog here as the Rams are getting hyped as the best team in the league. They should dominate this game, and there may be an edge with the Panthers having one fewer day of rest.

But similar to our pick of Seattle covering the first-half spread in Tennessee but maybe not necessarily the full-game spread, we’re going to go with the Rams coming out hot again and covering the first-half spread of 6.5 points in Carolina.

Besides, the Panthers are a team that’s best in the fourth quarter this year with their comeback wins, so slow starts are very common for them. They don’t match up great with the Rams at all, and this shouldn’t be a difficult game for Los Angeles with the way this team has been playing.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Rams -6.5 First Half Spread (-110) at FanDuel

2. Falcons at Jets: Jeff Ulbrich Revenge Game

Atlanta defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich was the interim coach of the Jets last year, and let’s just say it didn’t go well. But in going to the Falcons, Ulbrich has done a decent job with a young, revamped defense. The Falcons have some real offensive consistency issues, but they only gave up a field goal to the Saints last week. The touchdown was a pick-six thrown by Kirk Cousins.

That still counts for team points, but we’re going to trust that Cousins won’t make that mistake two weeks in a row. The Jets have benched Justin Fields for Tyrod Taylor, and while Taylor can clearly throw the ball better and produce more volume that way, the team still struggled to score many points last week against the Ravens.

That’s why with Ulbrich bringing his pass rush to heat up Taylor, who has a high sack rate and is a poor fourth-quarter closer similar to Fields, we like the Falcons to hold the Jets under 18.5 points in this matchup.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Jets Under 18.5 Points (-104) at FanDuel

Justin Fields #7 of the New York Jets — (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)

3. Texans at Colts: AFC South Showdown

One of the biggest games this Sunday is when the Texans (6-5) meet the Colts (8-3). We’ve seen the reports this week that Daniel Jones is trying to play through a fractured fibula. While he didn’t take any sacks last week against the Colts, he didn’t finish the game well and was very inaccurate. He may have trouble moving properly, and that’s a huge deal against an elite Houston pass rush that sacked Josh Allen eight times last week.

We know Jones was having issues with sacks against the Falcons and Steelers that weren’t present in the first half of the season, so this is something to watch with Will Anderson Jr. leading a strong pass rush for DeMeco Ryans’ defense, which has a fair read on this offense in the division.

These teams played two very close games last year but Houston won both. They also get C.J. Stroud back from his concussion. Davis Mills did a good job in his place, but Stroud is still the better quarterback and was playing some of his best football prior to the injury. His return should help as he’ll be able to find Nico Collins when he’s not guarded by cornerback Sauce Gardner, a new addition to this rivalry.

But while the Colts are a home favorite, the Texans are definitely the hotter team right now with three wins in a row. The Colts keep seeing their offensive stats dip this last month after they were on 2007 Patriots-type efficiency levels through eight games. The Houston defense is a great matchup for them, and I’m going to take the Texans to cover the spread against a struggling Jones on a bad leg. Houston is also a decent underdog pick to win outright this week in such a pivotal matchup for the division.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Texans +3.5 (-106) at FanDuel

4. 49ers at Bears: Déjà vu for Brock Purdy?

Back in 2023, the 49ers reached the Super Bowl with a great offense led by Brock Purdy. However, there was a 19-17 loss in Cleveland where Purdy’s skill players were injured, and he really struggled by completing 12-of-27 passes against Myles Garrett and company. The 49ers were held to 215 yards, the only time all year they were under 300 yards.

They still could have won the game if not for a missed field goal. But with Cleveland playing even greater defense in 2025 with Garrett up to 18.0 sacks, we like a similar game where Purdy is under 204.5 passing yards and the total finishes under 39.5 points.

Not only may the 49ers be rough on the road on a short week in Cleveland weather on the last day of November, but don’t forget the Shedeur Sanders angle on the other side of the ball against a better defensive coaching staff in the 49ers. Sanders made some plays in Las Vegas last week, but they also tried to hide him with screens and easy throws to limit his exposure to sacks.

I don’t think he scores 24 points this week as the game will be an ugly defensive grind that finishes under 39.5 points.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Brock Purdy Under 204.5 Passing Yards & Under 39.5 Points (+139 at FanDuel)

5. Three-Leg Parlay of Heavy Favorites

We have a 3-leg parlay for heavy favorites, mixing spread and moneylines, this Sunday:

Seahawks -11.5 vs. Vikings
Chargers ML vs. Raiders
Broncos ML vs. Commanders

The Seahawks may actually be disappointed to find out they won’t face J.J. McCarthy, who has been playing like the worst quarterback in the NFL this season. He’s been good for picks every week. But with a concussion, McCarthy is out, putting rookie Max Brosmer in his first NFL start on the road in a tough place to play and a tough Seattle defense.

The Seahawks failed to cover last week against rookie Cam Ward despite a 20-point lead, but I think they get it done here as you’re talking about Sam Darnold’s revenge game to rub it in the faces of the Vikings that they shouldn’t have got rid of him for McCarthy. He’ll be great in this one, and the Seattle defense should respond well to Brosmer and help the team to win by two touchdowns. Don’t forget Jaxon Smith-Njigba getting the Justin Jefferson comparisons this year and how he’ll want to dominate the matchup too.

Then our other two legs are just moneyline favorites. The Chargers beat the Raiders 20-9 in Week 2 this season. They come off the bye week, so Justin Herbert got some good rest and should be good to go here against maybe the wort or second-worst team in the NFL this season. The Raiders fired offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, but it’s not like they’ve found an offensive line for Geno Smith this week. Chargers should win by double digits at home.

Finally, the Sunday night game is probably one NBC should have flexed out, but we’ll see the Broncos as a 5.5-point road favorite against Washington with backup Marcus Mariota still starting for the injured Jayden Daniels (elbow). With corner Patrick Surtain II back in the mix, that should help Denver’s defense dominate a limited offense with its great pass rush and coverage.

The Broncos have won six of their last seven games by 1-to-4 points, and they notoriously start slow on offense. That’s why the spread is a bit scary here, and we’ll just go with Denver to win and push its record to 10-2, an inch closer to the AFC West crown.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Parlay – Seahawks -11.5 & Chargers ML & Broncos ML (+199 at FanDuel)

6. Bears at Eagles: Black Friday Shopping Spree

We have a 3-leg parlay for the Black Friday game between the Bears and Eagles centered around the Eagles getting their running game going:

Jalen Hurts Over 31.5 Rushing Yards
Saquon Barkley Over 77.5 Rushing Yards
Jalen Hurts or Saquon Barkley – Either Player Anytime Touchdown Scorer (market available at FanDuel)

A lot of commotion this week about the Eagles’ passing game after a 21-0 lead in Dallas turned into a 24-21 loss after they turtled on offense again. But now on Black Friday, the Eagles are facing a Chicago run defense that is 28th in rushing yards and 30th in yards per carry allowed. The Bears gave up big plays to Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell of the Steelers last week.

This is why Friday needs to be a game where the Eagles cut out the chatter about their passing game and focus on the run. That means more Saquon Barkley, who had a terrible game in Dallas with a lost fumble in the fourth quarter. Jalen Hurts also needs to run and remind us why he’s a great dual-threat and reigning Super Bowl MVP.

That’s why I like the running game to get established and for Barkley and Hurts to both go over in rushing, and you can play either to score a touchdown at FanDuel.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – 3 Legs (+290 at FanDuel)

Saquon Barkley #26 of the Philadelphia Eagles — (Photo by Kathryn Riley/Getty Images)

7. Bills at Steelers: Run to Win

Finally, we have a 4-leg parlay for Bills vs. Steelers in a big AFC matchup after both teams lost last week:

Jaylen Warren 50+ Rushing Yards
Kenneth Gainwell Longest Rush Over 11.5 Yards
Khalil Shakir 5+ Receptions
Steelers +3.5

The Steelers need to embrace the moment after getting a little gift from the Bengals beating Baltimore on Thanksgiving. The Steelers could get to 7-5 with a win here in a game they’re a 3.5-point home underdog. But Mike Tomlin is usually solid in these spots when people count him out, and the media has questioned his job security this week.

Both teams come in with injury concerns. The Steelers didn’t have Aaron Rodgers last week for his wrist, but it sounds like he’ll be able to go. Regardless, the Steelers must pound the ball against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. Pretty much everyone but the Chiefs have tried the Bills on the ground, and everyone but the Chiefs and Patriots cracked 100 yards on the ground. Five teams have rushed for 189 yards.

That’s why we like Jaylen Warren to go for 50-plus rushing yards for Pittsburgh, and for Kenneth Gainwell to have a longest run of over 11.5 yards, something he’s done in 6-of-11 games. He looks really good as the secondary running back in Pittsburgh.

With the way the Steelers concede short throws to top wideouts, look for Josh Allen to try to beat the pass rush with quick passes to Khalil Shakir for at least 5 receptions if we’re being modest about it.

But the other big news here is the Bills could be without both offensive tackles as Dion Dawkins (concussion) and Spencer Brown (shoulder) have injuries that kept them out of Thursday’s practice. It doesn’t sound like they’ll play, so T.J. Watt and company better come through on the pass rush after the way Houston sacked Allen last week.

Buffalo has hit turnover regression hard with nine giveaways in the last three games (three in each game). That might also be primed for regression, but the Steelers have done their best work in forcing turnovers to win games like the 11 takeaways against the Patriots and Colts, then two turnovers returned for touchdowns in the win over Cincinnati. That’s how the Steelers win in 2025.

I’m not going to pick the Steelers to win outright, but the 3.5-point home spread works just fine in that underdog role.

Scott’s NFL Pick: 4-Leg Parlay (odds TBD at FanDuel)

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