The NFL is testing us with injuries/ejections in these prime-time games after Jayden Reed went down on the opening drive Thursday night for Green Bay. But we’ll keep making NFL picks for a nice Week 2 lineup, including a Super Bowl 59 rematch, a Ben Johnson-Dan Campbell reunion, D.K. Metcalf’s turn at a revenge game, and we have a Monday night doubleheader parlay.
In recapping our Week 1 picks, I’m actually glad Jonathan Taylor sold the +3692 parlay in the afternoon when Daniel Jones scored two short touchdowns instead of him, because I would have been furious at the Ravens’ blown lead for tanking that in the end. But at least James Conner and Chase Brown delivered for us with their teams for the +322, and Baker Mayfield just came up short of the Atlanta-Tampa parlay cashing. The Patriots were just a really bad pick for the Vegas loss.
Each Friday, we will share seven NFL picks for the weekend. These can be prop picks, spreads, totals, alternate lines, moneylines, teasers, same game parlays, etc. We like to think outside the box instead of just telling you to play the moneyline of big favorites. You can play any of the picks as singles or parlay your favorite choices together. I do tweet winners from time to time before island games kick off, by the way.
Note: Picks are ranked in order of confidence (highest to lowest).
Table of Contents
1. Bears at Lions: The Ben Johnson Bowl
After Week 1, it might already be safe to say that Ben Johnson and Dan Campbell worked better together than apart. Campbell’s Lions lost in Green Bay with the offense looking rather lifeless, though the Packers look strong with Micah Parsons. Then on Monday night, Johnson’s coaching debut in Chicago did not go well at all as he basically served up a classic Matt Eberflus-style blown lead to Minnesota.
Both teams enter 0-1 and someone is going to 0-2. But I think before we write off the Lions, they’re still a better team than Chicago and have more elite talent. I like the mentor to beat the apprentice here, Jahmyr Gibbs will find the end zone at home, and the Lions (a 6.5-point favorite) will take care of business here to win their first game of the season.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs Anytime Touchdown Scorer/Lions ML (+102 at FanDuel)
2. 0-1 Teams Parlay for Your NFL Picks
Might end up regretting a third of this, but we have a 3-leg parlay with the theme of 0-1 teams staying more competitive this week:
- Dolphins +8.5 vs. Patriots
- Cowboys ML vs. Giants
- Saints +10.5 vs. 49ers
The Dolphins were abysmal in last week’s 33-8 loss to the Colts. But the Patriots were also a huge disappointment against the Raiders. Historically, the Patriots have struggled in Miami dating back to when Vrabel was a linebacker for them. Far better New England teams have lost to inferior Miami talent teams than this one.
I’m not courageous enough to pick the Dolphins to win, but I’m going to trust they don’t lose by more than 8 points or else Mike McDaniel may not see October.
Similarly, I’m backing the Saints to not lose by more than 10 points to the 49ers, who are without George Kittle and it sounds like Brock Purdy (turf toe) is not going to play. That means Mac Jones, and that’s why they absolutely could lose this game in classic Kyle Shanahnan fashion with a blown lead to Spencer Rattler and Jones throwing a game-ending interception in the fourth quarter. Upset alert for sure.
Lastly, Dak Prescott has won 13 straight against the Giants. In fact, he hasn’t lost to them since his 2016 rookie year. Look for him to get another win over that team and their mess of an offense. Also look for CeeDee Lamb to play better after four drops.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Dolphins +8.5 & Cowboys ML & Saints +10.5 (+111 at FanDuel)
3. Seahawks at Steelers: D.K. Metcalf’s Revenge Game
When you get so many players from other teams, you end up with a lot of revenge game situations. The Steelers had one last week with Aaron Rodgers beating the Jets, and I’m sure he has the Packers circled in Week 8. But it’s D.K. Metcalf’s turn against Seattle after the trade this spring sent him to Pittsburgh.
After an early drop, Metcalf had a good debut with 4 catches for 83 yards, showing great YAC ability. It’s a little shocking he wasn’t one of the four players to catch a touchdown pass from Rodgers, but that’ll be coming soon. Maybe even this week as he returns to the same stadium where he caught his first NFL touchdown against the Steelers in 2019 in a Week 2 game almost six years to the date (9/15/2019) this Sunday.
Actually, let’s go with the touchdown. I was going to do Metcalf’s over 65.5 yards, but let’s go with the touchdown instead for him. We’re also going with the combo pick of the Steelers winning the game too as the defense will play better, they’ll sack Sam Darnold a few times, and they’ll win the game at home to get to 2-0.
Scott’s NFL Pick: D.K. Metcalf Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Steelers ML (+250 at bet365)
4. Bills at Jets: Another Shootout?
You might not have expected a Week 2 shootout between the Bills and Jets, but they played in the two biggest shootouts of Week 1. The Bills escaped Baltimore with a 41-40 win, their third game where both teams scored 40 points going back to last December. The Jets lost 34-32 to Pittsburgh in a game that blew away offensive expectations.
That’s why I like to think both teams can score 20 points in this one too. The Jets looked legitimately good last week with Justin Fields throwing the ball as confidently as he ever has. The Bills didn’t look good at all against Baltimore’s offense, which averaged over 10 yards per play for much of the night. They just happen to be on the all-time run of turnovers with a historic success rate at recovering fumbles.
Sure, Fields could turn into a pumpkin at any moment, and maybe the odds on his anytime touchdown scorer market (+160 at FanDuel) are the better play here. But I’m going to trust that both defenses need some work, and they could at least play a 23-20 type of game that they played at MetLife last year.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Both Teams to Score 20+ Points (+126 at FanDuel)
5. Browns at Ravens: Joe Flacco’s Return to Baltimore
For the first time in his career, Joe Flacco will play in Baltimore as the opposing quarterback. He’s played the Ravens with the Jets in 2022, but that game was at MetLife Stadium and he threw for 309 yards in a 24-9 loss. But we have a 4-leg parlay for this one:
- Joe Flacco 225+ Passing Yards
- Harold Fannin Jr. 4+ Receptions
- Zay Flowers 4+ Receptions
- Derrick Henry Anytime Touchdown Scorer
This game already has the largest spread (Ravens -11.5) of the season, and we’re staying away from that line in a divisional rivalry game, and not to mention the way the Ravens blow leads anymore. You just can’t trust them. That’s also why we’re not going to bother throwing Ravens moneyline into this one.
But I do think Flacco continues his high passing volume against a defense that frankly didn’t look imposing in Buffalo, allowing 41 points and almost 400 yards to Josh Allen. We saw Flacco throw for 290 yards last week and produced four 50-yard receivers with his new Cleveland cast.
We’ll go with 225+ yards for Flacco and another 4+ receptions to rookie tight end Harold Fannin Jr. If you missed this guy in college, this is what he did at Bowling Green. He had 117 catches in the 2024 season and just eats up targets. He already had 7 catches for 63 yards in his NFL debut. He’s going to be a good pro.
Speaking of good pros, Zay Flowers was back and played excellent in Buffalo with 7 catches for 143 yards. He’s had some of his biggest games against Cleveland and we’ll give him 4 catches here.
Finally, Derrick Henry is probably mad as hell about that fumble that hurt his team badly. It’s as costly as any fumble in his career. Look for him to score a touchdown once again as he’s almost automatic with that in Baltimore.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Joe Flacco 225+ Passing Yards & Zay Flowers 4+ Receptions & Harold Fannin 4+ Receptions & Derrick Henry Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+343 at FanDuel)
6. Eagles vs. Chiefs: Super Bowl Rematch
It’s incredible that the Eagles and Chiefs are meeting for the fifth season in a row despite not playing in the same conference. That’s what the new NFL scheduling format and playing in two Super Bowls will do for you.
But the Chiefs enter this game in a tough spot as they haven’t had a lead in consecutive games for the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era, and they risk having the first 3-game losing streak with Mahomes. They also look to be a home underdog (+1.5) for only the second time with Mahomes, which last happened in 2022 against Buffalo (lost 24-20).
It’s a much different matchup if the Chiefs have Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy, but one is suspended and the other dislocated his shoulder on the third snap of Week 1. Worthy did practice Thursday and there is some thought he could play Sunday, but that is far from a guarantee and re-injury risk is very high with such an injury. Stay tuned to that designation. For what it’s worth, Worthy isn’t showing up in any prop bets as of Friday morning.
While the Kansas City offense could be great down the line, it’s the defense that is very concerning right now. They played a terrible Super Bowl and a terrible Brazil game against the Chargers. They were only timely good against the Bills in the AFC Championship Game too, another game they gave up 29 points. The pass rush just doesn’t exist without blitzing, and Jalen Hurts already picked them apart in the Super Bowl to win MVP.
Hurts had a very weird Week 1 where he held the ball forever, threw the ball very short, but had some of his best scrambles in years. Basically did whatever he wanted to Dallas, and he might do the same to the Chiefs here.
The Chiefs very well could win this game on the back of having the best player in the game in Mahomes. But it’s a tough matchup and Jalen Carter is back after getting away with his ejection for spitting as his 1-game suspension. He’s going to be a problem up front for this offense that can’t get the running game going.
The fact is I made a narrative that the Chiefs were going to start 0-2 and everyone would hit the panic button before they rebound and go on a run to still win 11-12 games. I’m sticking to it and the Worthy injury only helps make that easier.
But I’m also going to get tricky with it as I predicted last week that the Chargers would end Kansas City’s record 17-game winning streak in one-score games, which they did. I’m going to predict that regression to continue for the Chiefs, who will lose another one-score game (1-8 points) at home to the Eagles while Hurts also scores a rushing touchdown as he’s so automatic on that, especially against the Chiefs.
But it is a must-watch game and it will do a lot to shape the early narrative of this 2025 NFL season as people look for reasons to bury the Chiefs’ dynasty or crown the Packers as the new NFC favorite over Philly. Be sure to watch it Sunday afternoon.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Jalen Hurts Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Eagles ML & Chiefs +8.5 (+388 at FanDuel)
7. Monday Night Doubleheader Parlay
Finally, we have a 10-leg parlay for what looks like a solid Monday night doubleheader with Bucs-Texans and Chargers-Raiders. I think you have four quarterbacks who can sling it and win the game late, and the spreads are small with slight edges for the Chargers (-3) and Texans (-2.5).
I’m not picking a winner in either game as Bucs-Texans is too close (they played a 39-37 shootout two years ago) and I know better than to trust Pete Carroll having an ordinary outcome on MNF, not to mention the potential for Chargering. But I do think both games will be decided by 1-10 points.
- Baker Mayfield Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
- C.J. Stroud 225+ Passing Yards
- Mike Evans 60+ Receiving Yards
- Nico Collins 60+ Receiving Yards
- Texans +10.5 (Alternate Spread)
- Buccaneers +10.5 (Alternate Spread)
- Geno Smith Over 249.5 Passing Yards
- Justin Herbert Over 248.5 Passing Yards
- Chargers +10.5 (Alternate Spread)
- Raiders +10.5 (Alternate Spread)
This parlay expects both quarterbacks to play well with Stroud having to throw for his share of yards since the running game can’t be trusted against Tampa Bay’s front (Vita Vea). Mike Evans and Nico Collins will have nice games as their team’s leading receivers.
Geno and Herbert should both throw for 250 yards with the potential for 300-yard nights like they had in Week 1. All the prime-time games this year have been decided by one score (as have most games), so let’s just hope for two more with this doubleheader to end Week 2.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Parlay – 10 Picks (+3275 at Bet365)
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- 2025 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 2: If Your QB Isn’t a Demon, You’re Not Winning the AFC
- Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 1
- 2025 NFL Predictions: Who Makes It to Super Bowl LX?
- 2025 NFL Award Nominees and Best Bets: Can We Get a Good and Logical MVP Race?
- Philadelphia Eagles 2025 NFL Season Preview and Picks: Did Philly Crush One Great Dynasty to Start Its Own?
- Kansas City Chiefs 2025 NFL Season Preview and Picks: Time to Reinvent the Offense Again
