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Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 4

Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar26/09/2025 - 10:09 am
Micah Parsons #1 of the Green Bay Packers
(Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images)

The NFL has an excellent Sunday lineup in Week 4 starting with the first ever Ireland game (Steelers vs. Vikings) before we enjoy clashes like Eagles-Buccaneers, Colts-Rams, and the battle to avoid 1-3 between the Ravens and Chiefs. We’ll have NFL picks for those games and more.

In recapping our Week 3 picks, at least I still know the Chiefs very well, getting the win and under correct (+163). But we got royally screwed on CeeDee Lamb, who tried to play one snap in the second quarter after his ankle injury, meaning most sportsbooks won’t even void him, so that was a bummer.

Then the Packers blew that 10-point lead late, but at least we nailed Josh Jacobs going under as you have to respect that Cleveland defense. Also got 3-of-4 touchdown scorers on Etienne, Taylor, and Croskey-Merritt before Bijan Robinson’s Falcons sold us out with a 30-0 shutout loss in Carolina.

Each Friday, we will share seven NFL picks for the weekend. These can be prop picks, spreads, totals, alternate lines, moneylines, teasers, same game parlays, etc. We like to think outside the box instead of just telling you to play the moneyline of big favorites. You can play any of the picks as singles or parlay your favorite choices together. I do tweet winners from time to time before island games kick off, by the way.

Note: Picks are ranked in order of confidence (highest to lowest).

1. Vikings vs. Steelers: Luck of the Irish

It’s the NFL’s first ever game in Dublin, Ireland as the Steelers take on the Vikings in a battle of 2-1 teams. We saw Aaron Rodgers play overseas (London) with the Jets last year against this Brian Flores-coordinated defense, and it did not go well to say the least.

In that game, Rodgers threw three interceptions, including a pick-six early and a game-ending pick late. He also took three sacks and had 244 yards on 54 attempts.

Flores’ defense is known for being very hard to figure out as he will send three pass rushers one play, then blitz a full house the next. He’ll also disguise multiple things on the same snap before finally settling into the defense he wants, and his veteran players know how to execute it.

Last week, the Vikings embarrassed Cincinnati, causing numerous picks and fumbles to a variety of players. Meanwhile, the Steelers come in shaky on offense as the running game isn’t there behind this blocking, and Rodgers is having to get the ball away quickly as he doesn’t trust his protection (nor should he).

Rodgers has been intercepted in consecutive weeks, and frankly, this game sounds like a potential disaster if Flores can confuse him enough. That’s why my favorite pick is for Rodgers to throw a pick as we can get it for plus odds at FanDuel.

I also like Vikings -2.5, but let’s just keep it simple for now as you never know when Carson Wentz will hold the ball forever and cough up an egregious fumble or two to T.J. Watt and company. But the luck of the Irish should be on the side of the team with Kevin O’Connell at coach and a real ginger at quarterback.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Aaron Rodgers Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted (+106 at FanDuel)

2. Eagles at Buccaneers: Baker’s Whipping Boys?

Jalen Hurts #1 of the Philadelphia Eagles
(Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)

Jalen Hurts is just 1-4 against Tampa Bay, and a big reason for the last few losses is the way Baker Mayfield has shredded the defense. He even did it in Week 4 a year ago in a 33-16 final, the worst game the Eagles have played since 2024 started with Vic Fangio as the defensive coordinator.

Mayfield threw two touchdown passes in the first 10 minutes that day. We know he also lit up the Eagles in the 2023 playoffs, throwing for 337 yards and 3 touchdowns that night.

That’s why part of me really wants to take the Buccaneers to win outright as 3.5-point home underdogs. But both of these teams are 3-0 and have been winning tight games with Mayfield leading a game-winning drive in the final minute of each win.

I also think the over is a good play here as both teams should score at least 20 points. But with Baker possibly getting Chris Godwin (slot receiver) and left tackle Tristan Wirfs back for this matchup, I’m betting on him to throw multiple touchdowns again and boost his standing in the MVP race.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Baker Mayfield Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+124 at FanDuel)

3. Ravens at Chiefs: 1-2 vs. 1-2

Maybe their tough schedules to start the year don’t make this as hard to believe as it is. But the Chiefs and Ravens are both 1-2, so that means someone is starting 1-3 here. That doesn’t mean either team is dead for the playoffs, but the Chiefs’ division title reign could be coming to an end if they fall this far behind.

The Ravens are a 2.5-point road favorite in this one, but we know Patrick Mahomes is a great underdog. However, the Chiefs were underdogs to the Eagles at home in Week 2 and we know how that one went down.

But the Chiefs and Ravens are meeting at such an interesting time as the Chiefs are trying to get their offense on track while the Ravens look really bad on defense. No team has allowed more points through Week 3. The Ravens will also be without some key defenders again (Kyle Van Noy and Nnamdi Madubuike).

Meanwhile, the Chiefs are looking to get wide receiver Xavier Worthy back after Travis Kelce accidentally dislocated his shoulder on the team’s first pass play of the season in Brazil. He’s trending towards playing, and the Chiefs are getting comfortable with the deep ball again with Tyquan Thornton emerging as Mahomes’ best receiver in this stretch while Rashee Rice is still suspended.

Historically, Mahomes is 5-1 against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens since 2018. Their only loss was in 2021 when Clyde Edwards-Helaire fumbled the ball in game-winning field goal range.

We saw the Chiefs and Ravens on opening night last year and the Chiefs were able to contain Derrick Henry (46 yards) in his team debut. Henry has fumbled twice in the fourth quarter this season, and the Ravens are actually in their worst 2-game slump of running the ball in the Jackson era these last two weeks. It’s hard to recognize this team when the running game isn’t anything special and the defense is largely terrible.

The Chiefs’ defense had a rough outing in Brazil but has played much better, getting two picks last week off Russell Wilson that essentially ended his season for the Giants. They’ve usually played very well against Lamar, who tends to throw the ball a lot in these matchups and can start pressing. He took 7 sacks last week against Detroit, and the Ravens are coming off that short week (Monday night game) to play on the road here.

I’ve been perfect picking all three Kansas City games this season. I think this one sets up well for the Chiefs to get the win at home.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Chiefs ML (+126 at FanDuel)

4. Colts at Rams: Daniel Jones Doing His 2024 Sam Darnold Thing with Dedicated Accuracy?

Daniel Jones has been playing some great football for the Colts this year, silencing more critics by the week. But this will be his toughest test on the road against the Rams, who are coming off a blown 19-point lead against the Eagles. But they have the ability to score and get after the quarterback. We haven’t seen Jones revert to his New York ways with taking a lot of bad sacks, but we’ll see if the Rams can bring that out in him.

We’ve been comparing Darnold’s 2025 to what Sam Darnold did last year in Minnesota when he had his breakout year late in his career. But the Rams were one of Darnold’s problem teams as they swept him, including the playoff loss where he took 9 sacks. But even in the first meeting, Darnold still threw for 240 yards and 2 touchdowns as officials missed a face call late in the game.

If Jones is Darnold, then we’re picking the Rams to win this one but with the quarterback still throwing at least one touchdown as he has every week this season.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Daniel Jones 1+ Passing Touchdown & Rams ML (+109 at FanDuel)

5. The AFC East Giving Us the Least

By far the worst (read: most boring) division race in the NFL this year is the AFC East. You might as well crown the Bills today as they’re a 16.5-point favorite against the Saints this week.

But the other games are a bit more interesting, and we have a 2-leg parlay for them:

  • Patriots Over 24.5 Points vs. Panthers
  • Jets ML vs. Dolphins on MNF

The Patriots only scoring 14 points against Pittsburgh last week was criminal, but that’s what you expect when you turn it over 5 times. But if they can hold onto the football, they’re moving it well behind Drake Maye. Despite last week’s 30-0 shutout, I don’t believe in the Carolina defense, and I expect the Patriots to do well and score over 24.5 points.

As for Monday night in Miami, you have the battle of 0-3 teams. Someone has to win. The Jets came close last week in Tampa Bay, blocking a field goal for a touchdown to take a late lead. You probably saw the viral video of rookie coach Aaron Glenn celebrating the play by dancing on the sideline. People have been having a lot of fun with it by adding music to it.

Not to be that guy, but I really didn’t like this from Glenn. If they won the game that way, then sure, it’s awesome. Enjoy that first W, coach. But while I think the stoic and always serious nature of a coach like Joe Mazzulla (Boston Celtics) or even quarterback Jalen Hurts can be annoying in a different way, I know those guys would have had the sense to not go dancing around if they knew their team was only going to take a 27-26 lead (at best) with almost two minutes to go.

That’s about the worst lead in football in 2025 as it’s so easy anymore to get a field goal set up with the new kickoff rules and the range kickers have. You can’t be celebrating a situation you’re likely going to lose now, and that’s exactly what happened as the Jets blew their 8th fourth-quarter lead in the last 17 games, and their second in three games under Glenn.

Having said that, I think the Jets are closer to figuring things out than the Dolphins, who are stuck with Tua Tagovailoa and all of his limitations these days. The defense is also very poor.

So, I think history repeats itself and the Dolphins lose at home to the Jets to start 0-4, prompting the team to fire coach Mike McDaniel in his fourth season like they already did to Tony Sparano (2011) and Joe Philbin (2015).

Scott’s NFL Pick: Parlay – Jets ML & Patriots Over 24.5 Points (+364 at FanDuel)

6. Packers at Cowboys: Micah Parsons Returns to Jerry World

While I think there were better games to put in the SNF slot this week, you know Micah Parsons returning to Dallas, something the schedule makers had no idea would be the case, is going to do numbers. So, we have a 4-leg parlay to enhance the viewing experience this Sunday night.

  • Matthew Golden Longest Reception Over 21.5 Yards – Look for the rookie to return to Texas in a big way with a big gain against a terrible secondary. Golden making plays while Christian Watson and Jayden Reed (collarbone) remain out at wideout.
  • Jake Ferguson 40+ Yards – There’s no CeeDee Lamb (ankle) this week, and Ferguson was the main target in the playoff matchup between these teams in 2023, and he caught 13 balls last week in Chicago. Look for hm to be a good safety valve for Prescott and gain at least 40 yards.
  • Under 47.5 Points – It was 48-32 two years ago but these teams are different now. No Green Bay game has gone over 47.5 points this year, and they could really shut down the Cowboys without Lamb. Dallas also might surprise us and play some spirted defense in the face of the Parsons trade. Either way, I like the under in this game.
  • Packers ML – They’ll make up for last week’s bad blown lead and get the win here as they often do in Dallas.

I’m not going to throw in a Micah Parsons sack with -144 odds at FanDuel. However, if you want to spice it up, let’s not forget Kenny Clark on the Dallas side of things in that trade. You can get him to get a sack at +300 and that might be worthwhile here.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Packers ML & Under 47.5 Points & Jake Ferguson 40+ Yards & Matthew Golden Longest Reception Over 21.5 Yards (+554 at FanDuel)

7. Touchdown Scorer Parlay for Your NFL Picks

Finally, we have a 3-leg parlay for players to score a touchdown on Sunday:

  • Nick Chubb (Texans) vs. Titans
  • Puka Nacua (Rams) vs. Colts
  • Xavier Worthy (Chiefs) vs. Ravens

Let’s hope that Tennessee defense helps the Texans perk up and score some points this week. Nick Chubb has had some good runs this year, and he’s the player most likely to score for Houston right now. Hoping for a bounce-back game as the Texans get their first win.

In fact, if you want to spice this one up, take the moneyline for the touchdown scorer’s team since we already have the Rams winning above against the Colts. But while Puka Nacua has a rushing touchdown this year, he doesn’t have a touchdown catch despite leading the NFL in catches and receiving yards. We’ll take him to correct that this week with a touchdown catch.

As for Xavier Worthy, he scored two touchdowns in his NFL debut against a befuddled Baltimore defense in Week 1 last year. Let’s hope he has more in store and doesn’t leave the game injured again and can score in this one, showing his improvement from the end of last year and how he’s going to be a big part of things in Kansas City this year.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Anytime Touchdown Scorer Parlay – Nick Chubb & Puka Nacua & Xavier Worthy (+1379 at BetMGM)

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Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar26/09/2025 - 10:09 am