Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 7

Scott Kacsmar17/10/2025 - 11:54 am

The NFL continues to be drunk in 2025 as the Bengals upset the Steelers last night after 40-year-old Joe Flacco picked them apart. That makes underdogs 7-1 SU in prime time since Week 5. Does the trend continue this week? We have NFL picks for top games, including Bucs vs. Lions, Colts vs. Chargers, and the return of Rashee Rice in Kansas City.

In recapping our Week 6 picks, it wasn’t good again. The Steelers and Harold Fannin Jr. delivered (+142), but something was just off everywhere else. Puka Nacua’s injury ruined that game, the Chiefs ended up winning by 13 points instead of one score again, the Broncos only found the end zone once against the Jets, and the Bills were terrible on Monday night in Atlanta. At least Bijan Robinson, D.J. Moore, and Jameson Williams showed up.

Each Friday, we will share seven NFL picks for the weekend. These can be prop picks, spreads, totals, alternate lines, moneylines, teasers, same game parlays, etc. We like to think outside the box instead of just telling you to play the moneyline of big favorites. You can play any of the picks as singles or parlay your favorite choices together. I do tweet winners from time to time before island games kick off, by the way.

Note: Picks are ranked in order of confidence (highest to lowest).

1. Patriots at Titans: Mike Vrabel Revenge Game

Is this the best setup for a coach’s revenge game in NFL history? Mike Vrabel helped the Titans overachieve for a few years, they made an incredibly stupid trade of A.J. Brown to Philadelphia in 2022, then they declined and fired him. They replaced him with Brian Callahan in 2024, and they just fired that dude after horrible results.

In fact, I bet they fired Callahan on Monday in the hopes that he wouldn’t get crushed by Vrabel this Sunday. Mike McCoy is the new interim coach, and he used to coach the Chargers in the mid-2010s. He’ll probably do a better job than Callahan, and it is true that teams tend to experience an instant bump in the game after firing their coach during the season.

But the Patriots look really good right now, especially the way Drake Maye was throwing the ball in New Orleans last week. He made an all-time great play last year to throw a touchdown in Tennessee to force overtime before throwing a pick in extra period and losing. I think he’s better now, the team is gaining confidence, and Vrabel will come in there Sunday as petty as ever, looking to run up the score.

Get fancy if you want and add Drake Maye to throw 2 touchdowns, but I’m keeping it simple for our top, most confident pick and taking the Patriots to cover the 7-point road spread. Tennessee is awful, and Vrabel needs to show them just how awful they can be.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Patriots -7 (-110 at FanDuel)

2. Panthers at Jets: One More Try

I guess I haven’t had enough of danger, because I’m siding towards the Jets (0-6) to get a win here. This season has been far too drunk for an 0-7 team to exist, especially one that has blown three fourth-quarter leads in six weeks, showing they are close and just need things to bounce their way.

But rather than bet the Jets to win outright, I’m being coy about it. Until he breaks the streak, we’re going to keep pointing out Justin Fields is 0-26 in the NFL when his opponent scores more than 20 points.

The Panthers are a 1.5-point road favorite here. Their team total is O/U 21.5. So, we’re going to play the alternate line and take them to score under 20.5 points. The Panthers have been dominating with Rico Dowdle rushing the last two weeks, but the Jets are at least average against the run (17th in yards per carry; shut down the Steelers and Broncos).

Carolina has also been a homer team this year. The Panthers are 3-0 at home with an average of 29 points but 0-3 on the road with an average of 15 points per game.

So, I’m taking the alternate team under, and we’ll see if that’s enough for a Jets win. Hell, they lost 13-11 last week, so you can’t trust this team to win. Ever.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Panthers Under 20.5 Points (-110 at BetMGM)

3. Raiders at Chiefs: Rashee Rice’s Return

It’s been over a year since we saw Rashee Rice in this offense, but he is back after a knee injury and 6-game suspension kept him out. His receiving yardage line is 59.5 this week, and while the Chiefs could certainly ease him into the offense and limit his snap count, I think we’re taking the chance he picks up where he left off.

People seem to forget he was absolutely ready to take the torch from Travis Kelce as the No. 1 target in this offense. He had 103, 75, and 110 yards in his three full games last year before the fluke injury. He passed the eye test too as a player who just looked better than his rookie season in 2023.

So, we’re going to go with him to have at least 5 catches here. We’re also going to pick Patrick Mahomes to throw for at least 225 yards, something we should start seeing him do routinely again with this full arsenal of weapons.

Finally, we’re going with the Chiefs to win the game. Yeah, big shock as a 12-point favorite against the Raiders, but you never know in this crazy league. In fact, the Chiefs are 28-3 SU in the Mahomes era as a double-digit favorite, and two of the losses were at home to the Raiders in 2020 (40-32) and 2023 (20-14).

But the Raiders look bad, Brock Bowers might be out again, and I’m taking the Chiefs.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Rashee Rice 5+ Receptions & Patrick Mahomes 225+ Passing Yards & Chiefs ML (+134 at FanDuel)

4. Dolphins at Browns: Ground Control

The weather reports coming out of Cleveland say heavy rain and possible wind gusts of 50-60 miles per hour. There’s no roof in Cleveland yet, so this looks like an opportunity in a game between two dreadful teams for the running backs to take over in different ways:

Quinshon Judkins over 93.5 rushing yards
De’Von Achane over 4.5 receptions

The Browns are tough to run against, so De’Von Achane may struggle to get yards the traditional way here. However, Tua Tagovailoa has fallen in love with little swing passes and checkdowns to him, and the Dolphins may not want to throw deep with that wind. So, using the short passing game as an extension to the running game should be a good way to get Achane over 4.5 catches.

On the other side, Dillon Gabriel isn’t throwing deep. He needs to hand off to rookie Quinshon Judkins, who has three games with at least 80 rushing yards already. He had 110 yards rushing in London in Gabriel’s first start.

The Dolphins are 32nd in rushing yards and 30th in yards per carry allowed. Everyone has rushed for at least 120 team yards against them. They gave up 124 yards to Kimani Vidal (Chargers) last week. I’m taking the over on Judkins here.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Quinshon Judkins Over 93.5 Rushing Yards & De’Von Achane Over 4.5 Receptions (+202 at FanDuel)

5. Commanders at Cowboys: 37-37 in Overtime Again?

The highest total in a game in the NFL this season is staring at us in Dallas with 54.5 points, a rarity in division games like this. But if you’ve seen the Cowboys play in 2025, it makes sense. They just played a 30-27 loss in Carolina last week.

But it’s the home games that have been something else as Dallas has already twice gone to overtime in 37-37 games with the Giants (won 40-37) and Packers (tied 40-40). Not sure if lightning can strike a third time, but I like the bet that both teams will score at least 25 points here.

We know both can score on their own, and they played a 34-26 game last year in Jayden Daniels’ only full game against Dallas so far. But another reason to like them is that it sounds like Terry McLaurin and CeeDee Lamb should both be back, so you get the No. 1 wideout on both teams back, which should only make it harder on those defenses.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Both Teams to Score 25+ Points (+144 at FanDuel)

6. Colts at Chargers: Indiana Jones vs. Mr. Madison Beer

We have a 4-leg parlay for what should be a good one between the Colts and Chargers:

Justin Herbert Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Jonathan Taylor anytime touchdown scorer
Chargers Over 24.5 Points
Colts Over 23.5 Points

The Chargers had the No. 1 scoring defense last year but are 12th this season and only 16th in points per drive allowed, so more mediocre than 2024. Meanwhile, the Colts are No. 1 in yards and points per drive. They also lead the NFL with 32.3 points per game and have been so consistent. The only game they scored under 29 points was the 27-20 loss in this same stadium (SoFi) against the Rams.

But I don’t expect Adonai Mitchell to cost them two touchdowns with dumb plays this time. The Colts’ defense is also mediocre on a per-drive basis (28th in yards, 14th in points), so I think Justin Herbert can light up a defense that gave up 27 to Jacoby Brissett last week.

That’s why I’m going with both teams to hit their over in points, Jonathan Taylor to add another touchdown, and Herbert to throw a couple. Clean and efficient parlay playing to both team’s strengths.

In fact, that 4:25 window could be awesome for touchdown scorers between this game and Cowboys-Commanders. I’m not making that a top 7 bet here, but consider a parlay with Jonathan Taylor, Ladd McConkey, Keenan Allen, Tyler Warren, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and Terry McLaurin all scoring. Some food for thought.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Justin Herbert Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns & Jonathan Taylor Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Chargers Over 24.5 Points & Colts Over 23.5 Points (+375 at FanDuel)

7. Week 7 NFL Picks: Best of the Rest

Finally, this isn’t necessarily a parlay as much as it’s a rundown of some other picks I like that I couldn’t fit in above. Play the ones you like:

Eagles -1.5 1st Half Spread vs. Vikings (+110 at FanDuel) – Eagles usually only play well for one half, and the Vikings have trailed at halftime in 4-of-5 games. Give me Philly -1.5 at halftime.
Stefon Diggs (Patriots) Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+180 at FanDuel) – Our guy is due as Diggs has the most catches (32) and receiving yards (387) without a touchdown this year. Look for it in the win over the Titans.
Buccaneers +5.5 & Under 52.5 Points vs. Lions (+280 at FanDuel) – The Bucs won 20-16 in Detroit last year, and while they may not do it again, I think this game will follow a lower scoring total and the Bucs still keeping it close like they have every week this year. Mike Evans is coming back for the offense too.
Seahawks -3.5 vs. Texans (-104 ) – The Seahawks are 3-9 ATS at home under Mike Macdonald, but let’s make this the game where the tide turns and they cover against a Houston offense they can exploit the offensive line for. Sam Darnold is playing very well too.

Toss the moneylines for Packers and Broncos over the Cardinals and Giants if you want to roll this over +7150 as a parlay, but favorites are on shaky ground right now. Or maybe that’s just in prime time.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Parlay – Eagles -1.5 1st Half Spread, Stefon Diggs Anytime Touchdown, Buccaneers +5.5/Under 52.5 & Seahawks -3.5 (+4282 at FanDuel)

Related Articles:

Table of Contents