The NFL was having a historic wild card weekend that already saw the most fourth-quarter lead changes (12) in one postseason in just the first four games alone. But while the Bills edged out the Jaguars in a 27-24 game for the first road playoff win of Josh Allen’s career, the other two AFC games saw the Texans and Patriots advance to the divisional round without allowing a touchdown.
Now, the Patriots and Texans meet this Sunday in what figures to be a low-scoring battle. But first on Saturday, it’s the Bills in Denver, the shakiest No. 1 seed we’ve seen in a good while. The Broncos played their worst game of the season against Jacksonville in Week 16, barely beat the Chiefs with a third-string quarterback, then won a 19-3 game against the Trey Lance-led Chargers before resting on the bye week.
I don’t mind the logic that any team Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars) can beat on the road by 14 points, Josh Allen can beat too. There’s already been a lot of chatter this postseason about Allen having “no excuses” to not get to the Super Bowl in an AFC without Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, and Lamar Jackson.
Well, there can be excuses depending on how the game goes. If James Cook fumbles on a game-winning drive attempt, or their injured kicker misses to extend the season, that’s not on the quarterback. But generally speaking, the Bills have by far the best and most accomplished quarterback in the field in Allen.
- Bo Nix scored 7 points and lost his only playoff game, 31-7, to the Bills last year.
- C.J. Stroud has never won a playoff game where the Texans allowed more than 3 net points because of the return touchdowns they’ve scored to his benefit.
- Drake Maye has led 6-3 at halftime in his only two NFL wins against winning teams, and he won his only playoff game by a 16-3 final where he still tried to turn the ball over three times.
Like, this is really the field this year? They massacred my AFC. Meanwhile, Allen had the best game of any AFC quarterback against Jacksonville last week, he has the No. 1 rushing offense, and the Bills have been money in crunch time with their pass defense.
I’m actually surprised the Bills are only +600 to win the Super Bowl (Patriots are only higher AFC team at +550 at FanDuel) given this field. However, winning the AFC is a tight race with the Patriots (+200) leading the Broncos (+250), Bills (+270), and Texans (+360).
The biggest hurdle for Buffalo is doing it on the road every week with no wide receiver depth, and a game at Houston would be problematic given what happened earlier this season. But if the Bills can survive this weekend and only have to go to New England again? Well, they just might be the new favorite.
Let’s not forget a lot of this is based on the shadiness of the Broncos and Patriots as new contenders this year. Everyone knows the Patriots had the easiest schedule in the 32-team era as their opponents won just 39.1% of their games. But the Broncos weren’t that much better with the second-easiest schedule this year as their opponents won 42.2% of their games.
There’s also the fact that the 2025 Broncos set an NFL record by winning 12 games after trailing at some point. The 2025 Patriots won 10 games after trailing, tied for the third-most wins in a season. None of the other seven teams to win at least 10 games after trailing in the regular season won the Super Bowl that year. Only 2-of-35 teams (1976 Raiders, 2017 Eagles) won nine games after trailing and went on to win the Super Bowl.
Allen leading the Bills into Houston to take on that top-ranked defense for the AFC Championship Game, the first time the Texans have ever advanced to one in their 24th season, would be the best story and the best matchup on paper in the AFC this year.
It also has the lowest odds of happening as both are road underdogs this week. But crazier things have happened before, and the Patriots and Broncos will have to prove they are legitimate Super Bowl contenders to get by the teams that have the best quarterback and the best defense in the entire tournament.
We previewed the NFC divisional round yesterday. Let’s do the same for the AFC games now, which again are new matchups we haven’t seen this year. All five AFC playoff games are new matchups this year, and it’ll be 6-for-6 if the title game is Patriots at Denver.
Table of Contents
Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos (-1.5, O/U 46.5)
The No. 6 Buffalo Bills (13-5) will take on the No. 1 Denver Broncos (14-3) this Saturday afternoon in Denver. It’s a rematch from last year’s wild card round as the Broncos seek their first playoff win since Super Bowl 50. The Bills are just hoping to get back to the AFC Championship Game for the second year in a row with no Kansas City in sight after taking care of the Jaguars last week, the first road win and first game-winning drive in the postseason for Josh Allen.
The spread has moved a lot from the Bills being a 1.5-point road favorite to a 1.5-point road underdog. But the Broncos have a lot to prove here after a rocky trip to the No. 1 seed.
The Last Matchup
2024 Wild Card: Bills 31, Broncos 7
It was just a year ago when these teams met in the playoffs. Bo Nix was a rookie, but you wouldn’t have been able to tell from the opening drive when he converted a 3rd-and-8, then threw a beautiful 43-yard touchdown pass to Troy Franklin for a shocking 7-0 lead.
But before you thought we might have an upset brewing, the Broncos never scored the rest of the game. They went scoreless on their final seven drives with one missed field goal, no turnovers, and two failed fourth downs. Meanwhile, the Bills scored the final 31 points as big touchdown catches by Ty Johnson and Curtis Samuel did the Broncos in, and the Bills rushed for 210 yards with a big day from James Cook (120 yards).
The Broncos were exposed as a paper tiger on defense last season, falling apart when they faced real quarterbacks (Allen, Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, etc.). They beefed up the pass rush this season, but they did still lose to Herbert and Trevor Lawrence stole their home shine in Week 16. A lot to prove against Allen here, though they did force the Bills into so many turnovers in a 2023 meeting that it led to the firing of offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey.
You could say that 2023 Denver game has sent the Bills on the path they’re on today to get to this game with an offense that’s built more on running and short passes that generate YAC. Exactly the two things they’ll need to beat Denver with their limitations at wide receiver this weekend.
Injury Watch
This is hard to fathom but the Bills have lost wide receivers Josh Palmer, Gabe Davis, and Tyrell Shavers to season-ending injuries, including ACL tears for the last two in Sunday’s game in Jacksonville. This leaves the Bills dangerously thin at the position as they’ll have Khali Shakir, Brandin Cooks, and Keon Coleman as their most reliable receivers. They could also get Curtis Samuel back, who did this to Denver last year:
It’s not ideal, but if running back Ty Johnson can return, the Bills will have six of their seven leading receivers on the season to play with on Saturday. Everyone but Palmer, who wasn’t used much anyway. Cooks has also come on late for them and played well in Jacksonville with a big catch on the game-winning drive.
But as we’ll get into below, it’s not like the wide receivers going up against the Denver corners was ever the way they were going to win this game anyway. More pressing may be the defensive injuries. They played Sunday without linebacker Terrel Bernard and corner Maxwell Hairston, then they lost safety Jordan Poyer during the game. It’s unclear if any will play this week, though based on early injury reporting, Bernard might have the best shot to return.
As for Denver, they should be very healthy. Lead running back J.K. Dobbins remains out, but he has a shot to play the following week if Denver advances. Rookie R.J. Harvey will continue to get the most touches, and he could be a big name to watch given the Buffalo run defense.
Stats to Know
Here are some relevant and informative statistics for these teams heading into this matchup:
- The Broncos are 7-1 at game-winning drive opportunities, 9-2 in close games (best in 2025), 6 saves, and 2 blown leads (Chargers and Colts).
- The Bills are 5-4 at game-winning drive opportunities, 9-4 in close games, 8 saves, and 0 blown leads (8-0 the best ratio in 2025).
- Bo Nix is 8-4 (.667) at 4QC opportunities and 10-5 (.667) at game-winning drive opportunities in his career, the best records among active starters.
- Josh Allen is 17-29 (.370) at 4QC opportunities and 26-29 (.473) at game-winning drive opportunities (fourth among active starters) in his career.
- The Broncos have had a fourth-quarter lead in every game this season except for the 34-20 loss at home against Jacksonville.
- The Broncos are 7-9-1 ATS (+0.8 points above the spread on average) and the Bills are 9-9 ATS (+1.0 points above the spread on average) – neither has been a valuable team to bet on the spread.
- The Bills are 6-3 ATS as an underdog since 2024 (3-0 in 2025).
- Denver is 9-4 ATS as a home favorite since 2024, the fifth-best record in that time.
- Since 2020, the Bills are 12-15 ATS (44.4%) with a rest disadvantage.
- Since 2023 (Sean Payton era), the Broncos are 4-2-1 ATS with a rest advantage.
- Home teams are 9-3 SU and 5-6-1 ATS in the divisional round since 2022 with Buffalo having two of the home losses (2022 Bengals, 2023 Chiefs).
- The Broncos are 4-3 when they allow at least 20 points.
- The Broncos are 3-3 when they allow at least 20 first downs (11-0 under 20 first downs).
- Throw to win? The Broncos are 2-3 when they allow at least 265 net passing yards (12-0 when they don’t).
- The Broncos have held every team except for the Colts (167) and Commanders (143) under 120 rushing yards.
- The Bills, the No. 1 rushing offense, have rushed for at least 120 yards in all but five games and are 3-2 when they don’t.
- Buffalo won in Jacksonville last week with a season-low 79 rushing yards.
- Despite the worries about Buffalo’s run defense, the Bills are still 3-2 when they allow 190+ rushing yards thanks to a good pass defense.
- The Broncos are -3 in turnover differential while the Bills are +1 (+2 including the playoffs).
- Despite Denver’s league-best 68 sacks on defense, the Broncos have forced just 14 takeaways – only the Cowboys (12), Commanders (10), and Jets (4) had fewer.
- The Bills are 28th against the run and 30th in yards per carry, but the Broncos are middle of the road in rushing offense (16th in yards, 15th in yards per carry).
- The Bills are No. 4 on third down and No. 3 in red zone touchdown percentage on offense.
- The Broncos are No. 2 on third down and No. 1 in the red zone at stopping touchdowns.
- Bo Nix is 19-2 when the Broncos allow under 20 points and 5-9 when they allow more than 20 points.
- Should Be Impossible Stat: Bo Nix has won 10 straight games when he doesn’t average better than 6.0 yards per pass attempt.
- Bo Nix is 1-8 vs. winning teams that score more than 17 points (lone win: 34-26 vs. Green Bay in December).
- Sean McDermott’s defense has never allowed more than 27 points in any playoff game except for the three played at Kansas City.
- Sean Payton is 1-4 in his last five playoff games (only win vs. 8-8 Chicago team during 2020 COVID season).
The Keys to Victory
What are the factors that should lead to a victory for each team this weekend?
Bills – Avoid the Corners and Stop Bo Nix in Crunch Time
I wouldn’t say the gameplan is dramatically different than what the Bills needed to do in Jacksonville last week to get past Trevor Lawrence. The Bills should have more room to run this week as the Jaguars had the No. 1 run defense. The Broncos are No. 2, but even an offense like Washington with Marcus Mariota and some random backs had 143 yards and came up a 2-point conversion shy of winning that game with 28 points.
The Broncos are uniquely qualified to beat Denver with a limited wide receiver room. They can throw the short passes again to Khalil Shakir, who paced the offense with plays that could sub for runs. They have a great tight end duo in Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox. The running backs have been useful in the receiving game too.
But it’s not like the Bills were going to beat Patrick Surtain II and the secondary with Tyrell Shavers and Josh Palmer. That was never in the cards. The Bills need YAC plays, screen/quick game, the tight ends to dominate, and Allen to be a dual-threat along with a good game from Cook on the ground behind an elite line. Save Allen from that pass rush and its 68 sacks by getting the ball out quick like he did last week.
The one thing I could say where Brandin Cooks (speedy veteran) and Keon Coleman (the cookie man has some size at least) may prove to be valuable in this matchup is drawing defensive pass interference penalties. Allen led all quarterbacks with +5.6 EPA in penalties this season, and a lot of those are tacky calls for pass interference or defensive holding or roughing the passer to extend drives on third downs and such.
The Broncos have been penalized for 1,149 yards, the most in the NFL in 2025, and a lot of that is from a league-worst 350 yards in defensive pass interference penalties. Denver corner Riley Moss has been penalized for a league-high 203 yards with 10 flags for DPI alone, so he has been a favorite target of officials on those calls. Don’t be surprised if the Bills escape a bad down-and-distance by getting a huge gain on DPI after Moss is tangled up with Cooks or Coleman down the field.
The penalties could be huge, but Allen’s going to make his living with the tight ends, the backs, and his own legs. Leave nothing on the field, and I think he showed that mindset already in Jacksonville.
Then when it inevitably comes down to the fourth quarter, McDermott’s defense has been fantastic in the second half of games and closing things out in the fourth quarter. Eight saves and no blown leads in one-score games. Granted, they let Lawrence throw a couple of go-ahead touchdowns in the fourth quarter last week. All four playoff games looked like that around the league on the weekend with both teams marching up and down.
But when there was a minute left and Lawrence just needed a field goal with a kicker with the best range of them all, he immediately threw a pick to end it. That’s what Buffalo’s pass defense can do here to save the day and stop Bo Nix, who has had a lot of comeback success even if he hasn’t always played the greatest in those moments. He’s had some cheap ones where he gets a field goal in a 1-point game and relies on the defense to close it like the overseas game against the Jets, a 13-11 final.
I think Allen can outduel Nix and win this game, because Sean Payton is known for getting goofy in playoff games and not attacking weaknesses enough. Will he dial down the passes for his erratic quarterback and lean on a rookie back like Harvey against that defense? Liam Coen and the Jags didn’t run it enough last week despite Lawrence looking shaky right off the bat.
With the Broncos coming off the bye and a shaky end to the season, I think they struggle to get a good lead on Buffalo so that they can unleash that pass rush on Allen.
Broncos – Pass Rush and a Fast Start
Denver (Mile High) is historically a tough place to play, and the lack of wide receiver depth for the Bills could haunt them in the fourth quarter if those guys they’re leaning on get fatigued from playing a lot of snaps should they not lean more on the backs and tight ends. That’s an advantage of playing this one at home against an injured team.
But did you know that in games between 2025 playoff teams, the home team is just 25-27 SU? That’s a losing record. In fact, ever since Denver lost to Jacksonville in Week 16, the home team is 4-9 SU in these playoff team vs. playoff team matchups.
The Broncos had a 10-game winning streak and were still a home underdog against Green Bay, which goes to show you the respect people have for these Broncos. While they won that game in impressive fashion, they lost at home to Jacksonville a week later, 34-20, in by far their worst game of the season.
We haven’t really seen them tested since as Chris Oladukon and Trey Lance are hardly tests. Now you enter Josh Allen, the best quarterback in the playoffs with the knowledge that he doesn’t have to beat Mahomes to get to the Super Bowl. He just has to outscore Bo Nix here.
Like Trevor Lawrence last week, this is a huge legacy game for Nix too as getting to a Super Bowl in Year 2 by denying Allen (and possibly Drake Maye) would be massive for how he’s viewed around the league. But like Lawrence, he leaves you feeling a lot of doubt in these moments. Even against Green Bay, there were some throws that made you cringe as he’s prone to throwing up some chances to the defense every week.
The Bills have that strong pass defense that has shut down Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes already. They got two picks from Lawrence last week and had him doing silly things like diving short of the marker on fourth down. Nix is unproven in the playoffs, and his only game was already a loss against this team a year ago.
We don’t necessarily know how he’ll start in this game, but the Broncos have had some 2025 Eagles to them but the reverse: They start slow and finish strong. But for the first 30 minutes (or longer if you recall that Thursday Night Game against Vegas), it can be ugly, and the Bills are usually a front-running team that doesn’t wait to get going. That’s when Nix starts pressing, and those turnovers can snowball and before you know it you’re down 10-17 points.
That’s why I think a fast start is important, and that can be hard to do for an offense that had a bye and might be rusty. It’s not like they were on a hot streak to end the year. The offense scored 12 points against the Chargers in Week 18.
If the Broncos can play from ahead, then maybe you take James Cook out of the game. The Bills usually don’t win or score much when he’s not getting his yards this year. Then you force them to throw with those wideouts, and maybe you can get lucky with a tipped ball for a pick, or the pass rush dominates like how the Bills surrendered 8 sacks in Houston in a loss.
But if you’re not going to be overly efficient on offense in Denver’s case, then it’s probably going to be another close finish. The Broncos have only won three games by more than one possession. Two were against horrible defenses (Bengals and Cowboys), and the other was the 19-3 win over the Chargers with Trey Lance. Not impressive.
Meanwhile, the Broncos were getting punked at home by a rookie in Jaxson Dart and needed to win that one 33-32. Justin Fields had them in a 13-11 game overseas. Geno Smith and the Raiders was 10-7 in prime time at Denver. Davis Mills had them in an 18-15 game in Houston after C.J. Stroud was concussed. Mariota had them on the ropes in Washington in overtime. Justin Herbert and Daniel Jones both came back to win on last-second field goals in September.
It would just be very surprising to me if Buffalo wasn’t right there in the fourth quarter against this team that rarely blows anyone out. That’s why it’s still going to fall on Nix, and we’ll see if he can make the throws he did to put away teams like the Chiefs and Packers at home, or if he’s going to let it all come down to that defense.
Best Bets and Prediction
First, with the way this spread has been jumping back and forth all week, I think the best bet is under 46.5 points. Neither gets to 27 points as the Bills don’t have all the firepower, and the Broncos are just hard to trust to score. That’s the first pick I’d make here.
But I really do believe the Bills will win this game. If they can get to 20 points, then road teams who score at least 20 in these playoff vs. playoff matchups this year are 21-10 SU. That’s a great record for road teams. I can’t see Nix outdueling Allen in a shootout or higher-scoring game here. He has to have his defense dominate with sacks and shut down the run.
Otherwise, it’ll likely come down to the final drives, and for as much success as Denver has had in those games, don’t you think it’s going to start turning the other way? Nix having a better 4QC/GWD record than Mahomes after this season feels appalling. Regression came hard for the 2025 Chiefs in close games, and you should expect the same for the Broncos in 2026, but I think it starts early here. It may not be a game-ending interception again, but I think the Bills win by one score after the defense stops Nix in the clutch after some questionable play calls from Payton.
Buffalo was my Super Bowl pick since the playoffs started and I’m sticking to it as playing against Lawrence and Nix were huge reasons for why I liked them to get the job done this month.
Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-3, O/U 41.5)
The No. 5 Houston Texans (13-5) will take on the No. 2 New England Patriots (15-3) this Sunday afternoon in Foxboro. Neither defense allowed a touchdown last week while the Texans forced Mike Tomlin to resign and maybe Aaron Rodgers to retire with a 30-6 win that featured two more return touchdowns for DeMeco Ryans’ team in the playoffs.
After some shaky performances by C.J. Stroud and Drake Maye last week, how will they fare on what will likely be a chilly day against defenses that are even better this week? The quarterback who protects the ball better will likely come out on top here.
The Last Matchup
2024, Week 6: Texans 41, Patriots 21
The Houston defense was actually Drake Maye’s first NFL start last October, so he got a taste of an elite unit right away in a 41-21 home loss. Obviously the Patriots are a better team now, but the Houston defense is also better this year. But in that game, the Texans got up big early, and Maye showed some good flashes on his way to throwing three touchdowns. The Texans also had 192 rushing yards in one of their best games on the ground last season.
But we kind of saw this trick last week. The Chargers beat New England 40-7 late last year and you know what happened last week. They lost 16-3. So, we’re not going to take anything away from this game, and it’s probably in New England’s favor that Maye didn’t completely implode against this defense like so many top quarterbacks have in the last two seasons.
Injury Watch
There’s a big concussion to monitor for each team, and things are trending very much in New England’s favor. Corner Christian Gonzalez is looking like he’ll clear the concussion protocol in time to play on Sunday. However, Houston’s No. 1 wideout Nico Collins is doubtful to play after a late concussion in Monday night’s game required him to leave the field with assistance. It’s his second concussion this season too, so he’ll unlikely play.
The loss of Collins is big by itself, but it gets compounded with Gonzlez coming back for New England as he can guard the next man up for Houston. Who might that be? It’s Christian Kirk if Monday night is any preview. But the Texans are better equipped to handle this Collins injury than they were in 2023-24 when he was all they really had with Tank Dell getting injured both seasons.
In 2025, the Texans are 2-0 when Collins doesn’t play, and Stroud had one of his best games against the 49ers without him (30-of-39 for 318 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception in a 26-15 win). The other game was the 32-30 shootout win over the Colts in Week 18 when some backups played too. So, it’s not a death blow for the Texans but it’s not good either.
Otherwise, these teams are largely healthy and going to roll with what they have.
Stats to Know
Here are some useful and informative statistics for these teams heading into this matchup:
- Including the playoffs, the Texans have held 8-of-9 opponents on the road under 18 points this season (only Seattle scored 27).
- The eight road games allowing no more than 17 points is already tied for the single-season NFL record when including playoffs. Of the first eight teams to do that in the Super Bowl era, five of them won the Super Bowl (1969 Chiefs, 1978 Steelers, 2000 Ravens, 2005 Steelers, and 2007 Giants).
- The Patriots allowed 48 sacks in the regular season, the third most by a 14-win team in NFL history.
- Including the playoffs, Drake Maye has been sacked 52 times.
- Quarterbacks with an average time to throw of at least 2.75 seconds are 1-9 against Houston (only Bo Nix won).
- The only two quarterbacks to have positive EPA/dropback vs. Texans had the two fastest time to throw averages: Matthew Stafford (2.42 seconds) and Baker Mayfield (2.43 seconds). They still combined to take 7 sacks and scored 14 and 20 points.
- Drake Maye’s average time to throw has been 2.80 seconds or longer in 14-of-18 games this season.
- However, Maye has taken 36 sacks in the eight games where his average time to throw was under 3.0 seconds compared to 16 sacks in the 10 games where his average time to throw was above 3.0 seconds.
- The Patriots have held their last 17 opponents under 375 yards, tied for the fourth-longest streak since 2011.
- The Texans have held their last 21 opponents to no more than 360 yards, tied for the fourth-longest streak since the salary cap era began in 1994.
- The Patriots are 2-2 against teams with a winning record this season (two fewer games played than any other team).
- The Texans are 5-4 against teams with a winning record (only the Seahawks, Broncos, and Rams have a better record).
- Drake Maye is 0-3 when his yards per attempt is under 8.0 this season (15-0 above 8.0).
- The only quarterbacks to break 8.0 yards per attempt vs. Houston this year are Cooper Rush (9.0), Geno Smith (8.7), and Matthew Stafford (8.4). Only Stafford won the game (14-9).
- The Texans are still 6-1 against quarterbacks who average at least 7.4 YPA this year.
- The Texans have intercepted 14-of-18 quarterbacks faced this year and sacked 14-of-18 quarterbacks multiple times (1+ sack in all 18 games).
- The Patriots are 0-3 when Drake Maye’s ANY/A is under 6.0.
- The Texans have held 14-of-18 quarterbacks under 6.0 ANY/A, which adjusts YPA for touchdowns, interceptions, and sacks.
- C.J. Stroud became the first quarterback to win a game with 5 fumbles since Eli Manning in 2007. Manning won the Super Bowl that season with the Giants.
- C.J. Stroud has played in five playoff games but has already been the beneficiary of six return touchdowns by his D/ST, tied for third most by a quarterback and more than Joe Montana (4), Peyton Manning (4), Aaron Rodgers (4), Drew Brees (2), John Elway (1), and Dan Marino (0) had in their entire playoff careers.
- Neither Stroud nor Maye have won a playoff game where their team allowed more than 3 net points.
- Mike Vrabel is 0-3 in the playoffs when his team allows more than 13 points in a game.
- The Texans are 5-4 at game-winning drive opportunities and 9-4 in close games with 8 saves and 2 blown leads.
- The Patriots are 2-3 at game-winning drive opportunities and 8-3 in close games with 8 saves and 1 blown lead.
- C.J. Stroud is 2-10 (.167) at fourth-quarter comeback opportunities in his career (backup Davis Mills is 4-8).
- Drake Maye is 1-7 (.125) at fourth-quarter comeback opportunities in his career (backup Joshua Dobbs is also 1-7).
The Keys to Victory
What do these teams need to do to win this week?
Both Teams – Dominate on Defense and Protect the Ball
It’s no cop out to say I think the goal is very similar for both teams: Dominate on defense like you did last week and hope your quarterback handles protecting the ball better.
Stroud had a bad red-zone interception and a tough night at handling the ball with the five fumbles. He has to clean that up and he usually does after a bad day with turnovers. The Patriots don’t force a ton of takeaways, but they showed some good pass rush late against the Chargers to frustrate Justin Herbert, who played very passively. Stroud has to balance his aggression with the success he had on third down in Pittsburgh to have a cleaner game, remembering he probably doesn’t need many points to win.
Drake Maye had an early pick on a deflection, missed some easy throws, and he nearly had two strip-sacks against the Chargers. The last one could have easily been returned for a touchdown too, so he has to clean that up against an even better defensive front this week. Rookie tackle Will Campbell struggled with the Chargers, so life can be even harder against Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. this week.
But Maye’s got some sack merchant in him, and Stroud can make some bone-headed plays too. The quarterback that handles the rush the best should win this game by not giving easy scores to the opponent with turnovers setting up field position.
Not sure either running game is trustworthy in this matchup, though the Patriots have had some home run ability with rookie TreVeyon Henderson. But the Chargers held him in check last week. Woody Marks is a rookie for Houston who’s had some good moments but isn’t consistent.
Stefon Diggs will try to have a big game against his 2024 team. Without Collins, it’s going to fall on Chrisitan Kirk, Dalton Schultz, and one of those young wideouts like Xavier Hutchinson or Jayden Higgins are going to have to step up.
If the game is that low scoring with yardage at a premium, then there’s a good chance it’s close in the fourth quarter. It’s hard to say who has the edge there as neither quarterback has really established themselves as one of those clutch players yet. Stroud looked like he’d get there as a rookie, but ever since his thrilling game-winning drive against the 2023 Buccaneers, he’s led one fourth-quarter comeback. His backups, Case Keenum and Davis Mills, have three comeback wins for Houston since 2023.
On the other side, Drake Maye is 1-7 at comebacks, the same record as backup Joshua Dobbs. Not a great sign when the backup has a better or equal record at 4QC than your franchise starter. So, that could be interesting to watch to see which quarterback will excel under pressure against these tough defenses because it figures to be a grind again.
Best Bets and Prediction
There are some similarities between this game and Bills-Broncos. This is another one where I think the under is a good bet as I don’t see both teams (if either) reaching 20 points. Then you had Buffalo winning its first road playoff game since the 1990s while the Texans just won their first road game in franchise history as they eye their first AFC Championship Game ever.
In a matchup like this, I think you should lean towards the stronger defense, which is Houston. The Texans might very well be the best NFL defense we’ve seen since the 2015 Broncos, a defense that Josh McDaniels’ Patriots lost to on the road in the playoffs because that pass rush beat up Tom Brady all day. Will be curious to see how he handles this unit with a much lesser experienced (but more mobile) Drake Maye.
Stroud without Collins scares me, and Stroud in general scares me. But he’s got this lucky horseshoe jammed up somewhere the way he keeps feasting on return touchdowns in the postseason, and this does look like a matchup where Houston can dominate that New England offensive line.
I started 2025 by talking about how winning championships is built on the trenches and the way the Eagles abused the Chiefs’ line in Super Bowl 59 was a reminder to the rest of the league of how you win this time of year. Houston’s won 10 straight, so I would take them against the spread here to be on the safe side.
But it wouldn’t surprise me if the Patriots still pull out the 3-point win by virtue of home-field advantage and their own defense stepping up again as they haven’t been allowing many yards or points either. Should be a good one.
Related Articles:
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