This 2025 NFL season has been unlike any other where so many preseason favorites flopped and missed the playoffs, including the Ravens, Chiefs, and Lions. The AFC has produced five teams with at least 12 wins, which has never happened before in one conference. The 2025 NFC West is the first division ever to have three teams with at least 12 wins.
The Patriots (4-13 to 14-3), Jaguars (4-13 to 13-4), and Bears (5-12 to 11-6) all hired new coaches and immediately had huge turnarounds in Year 1.
With so many new contenders and new faces in these playoffs, it feels like the kind of season where we need some guidance on who we can trust. Who’s a real contender and who’s a pretender? A fraud?
Well, I think it’s time we bring back Fraud Alert Rating (FAR), a metric I created last year for the playoffs. FAR is a composite score I’ve calculated for each NFL team since 2002 (the 32-team era) based on only their full regular-season data in these three areas:
- Strength of Schedule (based on Simple Rating System at Pro Football Reference)
- Turnover Margin (Takeaways Minus Giveaways)
- Average Starting Field Position on Offense
This is my attempt to quantify which teams are getting artificial boosts in their statistics/record by things largely out of their control such as the schedule of opponents they face. An offense doesn’t dictate its starting field position either, and turnover margin is obviously something we’ve talked about ad nauseum in the last year in how fluky that can be and the way turnovers regress to the mean.
I’ve compared FAR in the past to ADOT (average depth of target for passes), another stat that you learn the most from the outliers as it’s not one where you necessarily want to rank too high or too low.
- Of the 768 teams since 2002, the bottom 114 in FAR did not win the Super Bowl.
- Four of the top 50 teams in FAR since 2002 have won a Super Bowl now, including the 2024 Eagles (No. 24), 2016 Patriots (No. 11), 2013 Seahawks (No. 47), and 2004 Patriots (No. 50).
- For predicting NFL playoff games since 2002, the team with a higher FAR is 9 percentage points less likely to win a playoff game than teams that rank higher in three other proven efficiency metrics (DVOA, SRS, point differential).
- Teams ranked higher in FAR, suggesting they’re a bigger fraud, win fewer playoff games in every round of the NFL playoffs.
- The higher FAR team only wins 52.0% of the time in the wild card compared to 59.8% to 62.7% in the other three metrics.
- The higher FAR team only wins 58.7% of the time in the divisional round compared to 62.0% to 64.4% for the other metrics.
- The higher FAR team is 20-26 (41.5%) in the Conference Championship Game, the inverse of the record (26-20, 56.5%) for the other three metrics, again suggesting that ranking lower in FAR is better.
- The higher FAR team is now 10-13 (.43.5%) in the Super Bowl, but we noted last year that teams with a disparity like the 2024 Eagles had on Kansas City would often win in blowout fashion as the Eagles did (40-22).
The general thought here is back the team with the lower FAR in these playoffs. Let’s see what the numbers look like for 2025, and I can already tell you there aren’t as many extreme cases like the Bills and Eagles in 2024.
Table of Contents
Fraud Alert Rating for 2025 NFL Playoff Teams
Here is where the 14 playoff teams ranked in 2025 in FAR:
- 1. Chicago Bears (+4.52) [14th-highest team since 2002]
- 2. Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.15) [52nd-highest team since 2002]
- 3. New England Patriots (+3.07)
- 4. Houston Texans (+2.73)
- 5. Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.23)
- 7. Los Angeles Rams (+1.06)
- 9. Buffalo Bills (+0.59)
- 13. Philadelphia Eagles (+0.06)
- 14. Los Angeles Chargers (-0.04)
- 16. Green Bay Packers (-0.34)
- 18. San Francisco 49ers (-0.45)
- 19. Denver Broncos (-0.59)
- 21. Carolina Panthers (-0.79)
- 27. Seattle Seahawks (-1.41)
If you’ve followed the season closely, you wouldn’t be surprised to see the Bears and Patriots rank highly here. Chicago won the NFC North despite finishing 2-4 in division games as the Bears dominated turnovers with a league-best 33 takeaways and +22 turnover differential.
New England’s SOS (-4.49) is the second lowest among all teams since 2002. Here is how every playoff team with a SOS below -3.0 fared in the playoffs in that time:
- 2007 Seahawks (-4.6 SOS, +3.65 FAR): Beat the Redskins with a couple of pick-sixes late in the wild card, lost 42-20 at Green Bay in the divisional round.
- 2015 Panthers (-3.9 SOS, +5.39 FAR): Beat the Seahawks and Cardinals but couldn’t score against Denver’s defense in Super Bowl 50 loss.
- 2010 Seahawks (-3.4 SOS, +1.30 FAR): Beat the Saints with the “Beastquake” touchdown before losing big in Chicago in the divisional round.
- 2009 Cardinals (-3.4 SOS, +1.13 FAR): Beat the Packers in a 51-45 overtime game after a fumble returned for a touchdown before getting blown out by the Saints in the divisional round.
- 2006 Seahawks (-3.2 SOS, +1.52 FAR): Beat the Cowboys in the wild card after Tony Romo botched a field goal hold, then lost in overtime to the Bears in divisional round.
- 2010 Chiefs (-3.2 SOS, +2.78 FAR): One-and-done at home in the playoffs in a big loss to the Ravens.
- 2005 Panthers (-3.2 SOS, +4.31 FAR): Beat the Giants 23-0 in the wild card, upset the Bears 29-21 on the road, then were crushed in Seattle in the NFC Championship Game.
That’s a lot of NFC West, but six of these seven teams were able to win at least one playoff game. Only the 2015 Panthers reached the Super Bowl.
But fans of the No. 1 seeds, Seattle and Denver, may be surprised to see their teams rank so relatively low in FAR. In fact, Seattle’s -1.41 FAR is the lowest of the 22 teams since 2002 to win at least 14 games, beating out the 2024 Chiefs (-0.67) and 2009 Colts (-0.88). Seattle has played a tough schedule in that bloodbath that was the NFC West this year.
But the reason the Seahawks and Broncos have low FAR is because they are both minus-3 in turnover differential, which is surprising given their defensive prowess. But the Broncos don’t generate many takeaways at all despite their high sack total, and the Seahawks have turned it over 28 times with half of those coming from a Sam Darnold interception. The lack of good turnover numbers is why neither ranks that great in starting field position too.
Still, you might be surprised Denver, also known for playing a weak schedule this year, isn’t higher in FAR. But that’s because there’s no adjustment yet for winning close games, something the Broncos have also done at an unsustainable rate this year as Bo Nix is 7-1 in game-winning drive opportunities.
NFL 2025 Wild Card Preview with Fraud Alert Rating in Mind
We’ll have full NFL wild card previews later this week. But for now, let’s preview the six matchups this weekend with FAR in mind as it relates to the spread.
Los Angeles Rams (+1.06) at Carolina Panthers (-0.79)
- FAR Differential: Rams +1.85
- Spread: Rams -10.5
In 24 playoff games with a double-digit spread since 2002, the team with the higher FAR (Rams) is 16-2 SU and 12-6 ATS. For underdogs with a FAR differential of 1.85 or higher, they are 2-7 ATS and 1-8 SU.
Carolina defeated the Rams, 31-28 in Week 13, in a game where Matthew Stafford had three turnovers, including a pick-six and a deflected ball in the red zone. Bryce Young also threw two touchdown passes on fourth down plays.
Green Bay Packers (-0.34) at Chicago Bears (+4.52)
- FAR Differential: Packers -4.87
- Spread: Packers -1.5
In 22 playoff games with a spread of 0-to-2 points since 2002, the team with the higher FAR (Chicago) is just 7-15 SU (.318) and 8-14 ATS. In 31 playoff games with a FAR differential of at least 4.5, the team with the higher FAR is 15-16 SU but that does include an 0-8 record in road/neutral games (15-8 at home).
These teams have met twice in December with Caleb Williams having the ball in his hands, down 7 points, late in each contest. The first time he threw a game-ending interception in Green Bay. The second time, he only got the ball back because of an onside kick recovery, and he threw the game-tying touchdown before the Bears won in overtime after the Packers fumbled a snap with backup quarterback Malik Willis in the game.
Buffalo Bills (+0.59) at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.15)
- FAR Differential: Bills -2.56
- Spread: Bills -1.5
In 22 playoff games with a spread of 0-to-2 points since 2002, the team with the higher FAR (Jacksonville) is just 7-15 SU (.318) and 8-14 ATS. In the Josh Allen era, the Bills are 4-0 in the playoffs against teams with a FAR of +2.0 or higher.
These teams have not met this year, but in his only home playoff start, quarterback Trevor Lawrence threw four interceptions before throwing four touchdowns in a 27-0 comeback against the Chargers in 2022.
San Francisco 49ers (-0.45) at Philadelphia Eagles (+0.06)
- FAR Differential: 49ers -0.51
- Spread: Eagles -4.5
In playoff games where the spread is between 4 and 4.5 points and the FAR differential is no more than 1.00 between the teams, the underdog (49ers) is 2-8 SU.
This is a rematch of the 2022 NFC Championship Game where Brock Purdy injured his elbow on the opening drive, then Josh Johnson left the game with a concussion, leaving the 49ers without a quarterback capable of throwing the ball in a Philly rout.
Los Angeles Chargers (-0.04) at New England Patriots (+3.07)
- FAR Differential: Chargers -3.11
- Spread: Patriots -3.5
In playoff games where the spread is between 3 and 3.5 points and the FAR differential is at least 3.0, the team with the lower FAR (Chargers) is 7-4 SU with every game but one played on the road/neutral site.
The Chargers usually struggle in New England but have won there the last two years in games that ended 6-0 (2023) and 40-7 (2024). The Chargers are 1-2 against teams ranked in the top 5 in FAR this year. The Patriots don’t have a winning record against a single winning team this season (0-1 vs. Steelers, 1-1 vs. Buffalo).
Houston Texans (+2.73) at Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.23)
- FAR Differential: Texans +0.50
- Spread: Texans -3.5
In 34 playoff games since 2002 where both teams had a FAR above +2.0, the team with the higher FAR (Texans) was 18-16 SU and 23-11 ATS (68%). They are 7-10 SU on the road.
The Steelers are 1-1 against the teams ranked No. 1 (Bears) and No. 3 (Patriots) in FAR this season. They’re 4-1 against teams ranked in the top 8 in FAR, including a sweep of the Ravens. Make that 4-0 with Aaron Rodgers starting the game as he missed the one at Chicago.
The Bottom Line: They’re All Flawed
Unless we get the Seahawks hosting Chicago in the NFC Championship Game or playing the Patriots or Jaguars in the Super Bowl, it doesn’t look like this postseason will feature many matchups with huge disparities in FAR.
But after the kind of regular season we had, you look for any edge you can in the numbers to try predicting what should be one of the hardest postseasons to predict in quite some time. Just about anyone can beat anyone this year, and every team has some kind of fatal flaw that’s triggering a fraud alert:
- Broncos: Set an NFL record with 12 wins after trailing this season.
- Patriots: Set NFL records with 13 wins in 14 games against teams with a losing record.
- Jaguars: Enter the playoffs with a marginal running game and a receiving corps that leads the league with 45 drops.
- Steelers: Defense is roadkill without getting takeaways and Mike Tomlin hasn’t held a team under 28 points in the playoffs since the 2016 season.
- Texans: Franchise has never won a road playoff game and the Texans have scored more than 20 points on the road once all season.
- Bills: Josh Allen has never won a road playoff game and the Bills’ seven lowest games in passing yards are all on the road this year.
- Chargers: No pass protection for Justin Herbert.
- Seahawks: Do you honestly trust Sam Darnold to win three straight playoff games?
- Bears: Try as they might to switch their identity, this is a Chicago team succeeding on crazy comebacks, a strong running game, and creating turnovers.
- Eagles: An offense that goes three-and-out this frequently or forgets to play the other half should have no business winning a Super Bowl, and yet…
- Panthers: Losing record (8-9) and were outscored by 69 points this year.
- Rams: Have already lost three games as an 8+ point favorite and blown leads of 19 and 16 points to the defending champs and the No. 1 seed this year.
- 49ers: Missing two best players on defense (Nick Bosa and Fred Warner).
- Packers: Enter playoffs on 4-game losing streak and already lost Tucker Kraft and Micah Parsons to torn ACLs.
Someone’s going to run the table and win this Super Bowl. But for many of these teams, this is going to be as good as it gets.
Related Articles:
