2025 NFL Award Races Through the First Quarter: Are We Headed Towards Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes for MVP?
We are four games into the 2025 NFL season, which used to be the one-quarter mark back when the superior 16-game schedule was in use. But with the byes starting this week, this is a good enough time to start focusing on those individual award races with the latest odds from top sportsbooks.
We made our predictions a month ago, and I can already say the Joe Burrow MVP campaign ended in Week 2 with his turf toe injury. He wasn’t off to a great start anyway, but that one’s over, and who knows who will join him as injuries are piling up at quarterback this year.
But there are some good award races brewing besides the MVP, and we’ll get into them all below with a review of our top five picks from a month ago, and our revised (or not) top pick for the winner at season’s end in light of this new information from the first quarter-ish of the season.
Table of Contents
NFL Most Valuable Player (MVP) Award
Preseason pick: Joe Burrow (+600)
Current odds leaders (via FanDuel):
- Josh Allen (-105)
- Justin Herbert (+600)
- Patrick Mahomes (+650)
- Jordan Love (+800)
- Matthew Stafford (+1400)
- Jared Goff (+1900)
- Jalen Hurts (+1900)
- Baker Mayfield (+2200)
- Lamar Jackson (+2700)
- Jayden Daniels (+5000)
- Daniel Jones (+5000)
It feels like we’re running out of MVP candidates quickly this season as six teams have already had to start multiple quarterbacks, Joe Flacco just got benched in Cleveland, and Lamar Jackson’s health is the newest question mark in Baltimore’s 1-3 start.
I’m not sure anyone but the 11 people I listed odds for can win the MVP, and I’m not even sold that several of these players have a real shot at things. Obviously, I had to dump the Joe Burrow MVP shares after Week 2’s injury, but even my backup pick, Jayden Daniels, may have a tough argument after playing his most ineffective game in Green Bay before losing two full games to injury.
You generally want to see a quarterback win MVP for staying healthy all year. The only game he should be missing is Week 18 for playoff rest, so the war of attrition is already shortening this field in a hurry.
As much as I appreciate the start Daniel Jones has had in 2025, this does feel a lot like Sam Darnold in Minnesota last year, which means bad things will probably happen in those Jacksonville games in December that hurt the Colts as they try to win the AFC South for the first time since 2014. But +5000 is pretty nice value for a quarterback who is No. 1 in QBR to start October.
With the frustrating way Jalen Hurts is playing football for Philadelphia, if another quarterback could swoop in there and get the top seed in the NFC, then that could be big for the MVP chances for Jordan Love, Jared Goff, Matthew Stafford, or Baker Mayfield. Of course, half of that list already lost to the Eagles, and we’ll see on the others in Weeks 10-11.
I also look at Jordan Love and can’t help but think that interception in Cleveland helped lose that game, his late fumble in the first half in Dallas turned that game around, and he nearly mismanaged the final drive to lose the tie after throwing the ball away with one second left. Those moments stand out to me as they are 50% of the games played so far, and the Green Bay defense was more impressive than the offense in Weeks 1-2.
That’s why I keep coming back to those AFC quarterbacks: Josh Allen and whoever wins the AFC West between Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes as those are the teams likely to take the top two seeds right now, and the MVP award is largely an award for a quarterback with nice numbers on a top two seed.
But I have to say it’s a bit absurd that Josh Allen already has better than even odds (-105) to win MVP everywhere right now. We knew before the season that Buffalo had the best odds to finish No. 1 in the conference because of the gift of a schedule that had all of their toughest games at home. Unbelievable luck of the draw as the Ravens, Chiefs, Bucs, and Eagles all have to travel to Buffalo. So do the Bengals, which won’t matter now without Burrow.
At some point, shouldn’t that matter for the MVP debate? Buffalo was already 2-3 against playoff teams last year when Allen won MVP. They might end up playing five winning teams all year again, and four will be in Buffalo. Right now, Buffalo’s first four opponents won one game in September that wasn’t against each other. The player making the biggest leap in that offense right now is also running back James Cook as Allen’s passing production continues to be lower under coordinator Joe Brady.
I guess I’m just never going to understand this fixation with giving Allen more credit for doing less for the offense than he did in 2020-23.
As for Mahomes and Herbert, it was Herbert getting the signature win in Brazil. But after watching the Chiefs demolish Baltimore and the Chargers flop in MetLife Stadium, you know that race is far from over in the West. The Chiefs still get a rematch at Arrowhead in Week 15 too.
Despite the flaws in the Kansas City roster, Mahomes is still No. 3 in QBR thanks to his scrambling in the first two weeks, and then the last six quarters have been excellent for the offense, which still ranks in the top five in drive scoring efficiency. Rashee Rice will be back in a few weeks, and that’s arguably their best receiver. Xavier Worthy already came back and made a big impact, continuing the way he ended his rookie season on a high note.
We’ll come back in a month before the Week 9 showdown between the Chiefs and Bills to update these award races, but for right now, I’d back Mahomes at +650. He was +2500 a week ago too, so that was really the time to buy in with people panicking without good reason.
He’s still that guy, and if things go well, we might finally see him playing in an offense again with a stable left tackle and receivers who aren’t rookies, journeymen, or past their prime.
NFL Pick: 2025 NFL MVP Award – Patrick Mahomes (+650 at FanDuel)
NFL Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY) Award
Preseason pick: Bijan Robinson (+1400)
Current odds leaders (via FanDuel):
- Puka Nacua (+260)
- Jonathan Taylor (+400)
- Bijan Robinson (+550)
- Christian McCaffrey (+650)
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (+1500)
- James Cook (+1500)
- Jahmyr Gibbs (+1900)
- Saquon Barkley (+2500)
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+2500)
- Justin Jefferson (+2500)
- Derrick Henry (+3000)
This is probably the award I’ve been most accurate on so far as I liked Bijan Robinson and Puka Nacua as my favorite picks, and they’re both top three right now in odds. I also was souring on Ja’Marr Chase and Saquon Barkley, and neither looks to be on track to compete for the award in the end.
Again, it’s an award where you basically need to lead the league in a yardage and/or touchdown category. Right now, Puka Nacua is just catching everything as he has 42 catches for 503 yards. Both lead the league, but with Davante Adams stealing the touchdowns, a triple crown doesn’t look likely there. Still, he could reach 2,000 yards in a 17-game season and that should be enough to get it for him.
As for my guy Bijan Robinson in Atlanta, he’s living up to the hype with a league-high 584 yards from scrimmage as he’s already had two 100-yard receiving games to show his versatility.
Obviously, I loved the value of Nacua at +2000 a month ago, and he’s still a fine pick here. But I’m sticking with Bijan on this one. Jonathan Taylor also has a shot, but we’re going to see several Colts up for awards if they keep playing the way they have. That could get tricky to divide credit.
NFL Pick: 2025 NFL Offensive Player of the Year Award – Bijan Robinson (+550 at FanDuel)
NFL Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY) Award
Preseason pick: T.J. Watt (+1000)
Current odds leaders (via FanDuel):
- Micah Parsons (+360)
- Aidan Hutchinson (+360)
- Myles Garrett (+360)
- Nik Bonitto (+1000)
- Jared Verse (+1900)
- Will Anderson Jr. (+1900)
- T.J. Watt (+2500)
After MVP, this could be the most heated debate of the season as we have a 3-horse race right now between Micah Parsons, Aidan Hutchinson, and Myles Garrett. I’d say Garrett has probably played the best through Week 4 of the bunch, but his team is going to likely have the worst success for reasons related to the dreadful offense, and DPOY is an award that rewards winning teams.
So, I’m souring on Garrett unless he continues to play incredibly well. Hutchinson has picked things up with 4.0 sacks over the last three games after a quiet return in Green Bay in Week 1. The Lions should still be a good team and he’s definitely their most valuable defender.
Parsons gets all the hype for transforming Green Bay, but they sure didn’t look hot on Sunday night in Dallas without CeeDee Lamb playing too. I think Parsons, my No. 2 preseason pick, can still easily win if he shows up in the prime-time games like when they host the Eagles on a Monday night in Week 10, and they’ll face the Ravens in Week 17.
My pick of T.J. Watt isn’t looking so hot as he has the seventh-best odds after a bad start by the Pittsburgh defense. But they are starting to get splash plays, and Watt has 3.0 sacks and a forced fumble in the last two weeks. He’s not out of it yet.
But at this point, I probably would switch over to Parsons, who will continue to get the credit for Green Bay’s defensive improvement and if Dallas continues to falter without him.
NFL Pick: 2025 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Award – Micah Parsons (+360 at FanDuel)
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year (OROY) Award
Preseason pick: Ashton Jeanty (+300)
Current odds leaders (via FanDuel):
- Emeka Egbuka (+250)
- Ashton Jeanty (+380)
- Jaxson Dart (+450)
- Omarion Hampton (+500)
- Tetairoa McMillan (+1200)
- Tyler Warren (+1200)
- Quinshon Judkins (+1500)
- Cam Ward (+2000)
- Dillon Gabriel (+2500)
It says a lot about where this rookie race is when Dillon Gabriel has the ninth-best odds before he’s even started a game at quarterback for Cleveland. But Cam Ward has not been good for Tennessee, so you probably have to forget about that happening.
I just wrote this week how Jaxson Dart’s running style isn’t sustainable for success, and he’s going to have a hard time getting passing production after Malik Nabers tore his ACL.
My fifth pick was Tyler Warren as there should come a day where a tight end wins this award for the first time. The Colts have a shot at several awards this year, and you can’t discount him at all after 263 receiving yards through Week 4. That puts him close to the lead in the class in receiving, but he’s not catching any touchdowns yet.
The running backs were struggling, but this past Sunday was big for Ashton Jeanty (Raiders) and Omarion Hampton (Chargers) as they both shined with their best games. But I think Jeanty is the better back, and maybe the key to “fixing him” behind that weak line was to just let the guy stand in the backfield like Michael Myers like he did at Boise State.
The player who has raised his stock the most is Tampa wideout Emeka Egbuka, who has made many clutch catches for the Bucs as he already has four touchdowns. I certainly think he can win it, but I also think the Bucs should get Mike Evans (out Sunday) and Chris Godwin (back but rusty) back on the field together at some point this year, so that could keep Egbuka’s final numbers down.
That’s why I’m going to stick with my original pick and go with Jeanty in Vegas, though I don’t think this rookie class is blowing us away yet. Egbuka and Warren could certainly win too.
NFL Pick: 2025 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award – Ashton Jeanty (+380 at FanDuel)
NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year (DROY) Award
Preseason pick: Shemar Stewart (+2500)
Current odds leaders (via FanDuel):
- Abdul Carter (+150)
- Jihaad Campbell (+340)
- Carson Schewsinger (+600)
- Shemar Stewart (+1900)
- Mykel Williams (+1900)
- Mike Green (+2000)
Like the offensive group, it says a lot about where this race is when I took a longshot in Shemar Stewart, he’s missed half of Cincinnati’s four games, has yet to register a sack, and his odds have improved to the fourth best.
This class just hasn’t popped yet after a month as even the Ravens may regret their pick of Mike Green, who is getting pushed around by linemen. Meanwhile, Abdul Carter was the top-rated pass rusher in this class, and he has 0.5 sacks and 9 pressures, including 5 pressures of Justin Herbert on Sunday.
Carter was my No. 2 pick, a chalk pick, and that’s probably where I’d go now as the Giants are going to have to lean even more on winning games with running the ball and defense without Malik Nabers (ACL).
NFL Pick: 2025 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award – Abdul Carter (+150 at FanDuel)
NFL Comeback Player of the Year (CPOY) Award
Preseason pick: Aidan Hutchinson (+300)
Current odds leaders (via FanDuel):
- Christian McCaffrey (+160)
- Aidan Hutchinson (+230)
- Dak Prescott (+340)
- Daniel Jones (+500)
- Trevor Lawrence (+2200)
- Chris Godwin (+3300)
This one’s interesting since you never really know what criteria people are judging it by. The odds haven’t changed much at the top as Christian McCaffrey and Aidan Hutchinson still have the best odds.
CMC isn’t scoring much (two touchdowns in four games), but he leads the league with 100 touches, and him staying healthy in a San Francisco offense that seems to lose a starter (or multiple) every week would be wild. He’s never won the award too, so it might be a way to honor him, but I’m not sure this offense can sustain itself with the way the injuries are piling up before CMC is added to that injury report with 25 touches per game.
For what it’s worth, I ranked Daniel Jones fifth last month “This was going to be Anthony Richardson, but we’ll go with the next bum quarterback the Colts are trying to make happen in 2025,” I said. Well, the Colts are making Indiana Jones happen through Week 4, and I’d consider voting for him if he keeps it up. I’m just not sure people are really content with that “he came back from being a bad player who was benched and traded” thing.
So, I’m sticking with my idea that Aidan Hutchinson will get it as a consolation prize for not winning DPOY.
NFL Pick: 2025 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award – Aidan Hutchinson (+230 at FanDuel)
NFL Coach of the Year Award
Preseason pick: Liam Coen (+1400)
Current odds leaders (via BetMGM):
- Shane Steichen, Colts (+450)
- Liam Coen, Jaguars (+650)
- Mike Macdonald, Seahawks (+900)
- Jim Harbaugh, Chargers (+1200)
- Nick Sirianni, Eagles (+1400)
- Sean McVay, Rams (+1500)
- Dan Campbell, Lions (+1500)
- Ben Johnson, Bears (+1600)
- Sean McDermott, Bills (+1600)
My reasoning for ranking Ben Johnson No. 5 was that I didn’t think Chicago would make the playoffs, and you probably need to make the playoffs to win Coach of the Year. I still feel that way about the Bears (2-2), but he’s got a shot at least.
Mike Macdonald also certainly has a shot if he can win the NFC West with Sam Darnold at quarterback. That’s a very tough division right now.
But this looks like I was on the right path with the winner of the AFC South likely taking it. I just didn’t think Shane Steichen would have the Colts (3-1) looking this good with Daniel Jones, which is why he’s the odds-on favorite right now.
At the same time, I feel like Steichen should have cost the Colts a game against Denver with such a conservative approach to settling for a 60-yard field goal that was missed, but the Broncos were penalized for leverage to give Indy another chance. It’s unlikely people will hold a Week 2 win like that against him in the end, but that sticks out to me as a negative when we’re only in Week 5.
My pick was Liam Coen for the Jaguars and I’m sticking with it. The Jags have not got their passing game clicking yet with their best receivers, but the secondary receivers are contributing, and Travis Etienne is running the ball better than ever. The defense also got the turnover regression I was counting on as the Jaguars already have more takeaways (13) through four games than they had all of last season (9).
However, Travis Hunter hasn’t been the impact rookie we thought he was going to be yet. But it does look like this race could come down to who wins the AFC South between Jacksonville and Indy, so I’m still content with Coen getting it done for now.
NFL Pick: 2025 NFL Coach of the Year – Liam Coen (+650 at BetMGM)
Related Articles:
- 2025 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 5: Patrick Mahomes Outduels Lamar Jackson Again and the Wild Start to the Jaxson Dart Era
- 2025 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 4: Lamar Jackson Sacked, Baker Mayfield’s Wild Run, and Is This the End for Russell Wilson?
- Patrick Mahomes Turns 30: The Best There Is, the Best There Was, the Best There Ever Will Be?
- 2025 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 3: Injuries Are Sadly Piling Up Quickly to Joe Burrow, Jayden Daniels, J.J. McCarthy
- 2025 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 2: If Your QB Isn’t a Demon, You’re Not Winning the AFC
- 2025 NFL Predictions: Who Makes It to Super Bowl LX?
- 2025 NFL Award Nominees and Best Bets: Can We Get a Good and Logical MVP Race?
- Philadelphia Eagles 2025 NFL Season Preview and Picks: Did Philly Crush One Great Dynasty to Start Its Own?
- 2025 NFL Quarterback Rankings: This Is Still Patrick Mahomes’ League
