Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 11

Scott Kacsmar15/11/2025 - 04:59 am

Amon-Ra St. Brown of the Detroit Lions — (Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images)

The NFL built up an incredible Sunday schedule, the best of the 2025 season, for Week 11. We have NFL picks for all the best games, including Bengals-Steelers, Bucs-Bills, Seahawks-Rams, Chiefs-Broncos, and Lions-Eagles. At least one of these games has to deliver something special.

In recapping our Week 10 picks, at least the Bears-Giants both scored 20 points and the Colts came through in overtime for a couple of direct hits. But we were on the very wrong end (as most were) for Bills at Dolphins, J.J. McCarthy threw for more yards than I expected, and the Steelers messed up our parlay by losing big. The Eagles are also seemingly allergic to throwing to A.J. Brown this year, but at least Breece Hall scored and the Lions covered in Washington for some of our random picks.

Each Friday, we will share seven NFL picks for the weekend. These can be prop picks, spreads, totals, alternate lines, moneylines, teasers, same game parlays, etc. We like to think outside the box instead of just telling you to play the moneyline of big favorites. You can play any of the picks as singles or parlay your favorite choices together. I do tweet winners from time to time before island games kick off, by the way.

Note: Picks are ranked in order of confidence (highest to lowest).

1. Chargers at Jaguars: Can We Avoid Any Chargering in Florida?

I know, it’s probably a risk to take the Chargers on the road without their starting tackles against a Jacksonville team that blew a 19-point lead in the fourth quarter to Davis Mills last week. Even though Justin Herbert got the ball out so fast against Pittsburgh, he still took 5 sacks in that game.

But at the same time, the Chargers still won 25-10 because Jim Harbaugh is not the pushover at coach the team had before him. The Jaguars also have their own protection issues, Trevor Lawrence is generally bad if he can’t get in an early rhythm, and the Chargers’ defense had Aaron Rodgers playing one of his worst games ever.

The Jaguars are also down some receivers with Brian Thomas Jr. banged up, and rookie Travis Hunter is out for the season after LCL surgery. They traded for Jakobi Meyers but we’ll see if Lawrence can build up chemistry in a hurry with him.

Sure, you don’t love the Chargers returning to the scene of the crime when they blew a 27-0 lead in the 2022 playoffs in the wild card round. But that was a different team led by a much inferior coach. I believe in Harbaugh, and that’s why I like the Chargers to cover on the road and get to 8-3 before they sit back and watch the Chiefs and Broncos battle.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Chargers -3 (-105) at FanDuel

2. Buccaneers at Bills: Getting Back to Josh Allen’s Offense

The Bills have acknowledged, or at least offensive coordinator Joe Brady did, that they weren’t throwing the ball early enough in Miami last week. That led to a shocking 30-13 upset loss, and we know the Bills rarely lose two in a row or lose at home period. They’re a 5.5-point favorite against Tampa Bay this week, and the Bucs still may not get back their weapons like Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin.

With Tampa’s injuries, the offensive efficiency has really dropped off. The Bucs have gone from No. 1 on third down to No. 24 this year. They’re also 24th in red zone touchdown rate after finishing 4th last year. At least with Buffalo’s struggles, they’re still No. 5 on third down and No. 7 in the red zone.

I’m counting on last week to be a wake-up call for the Bills, who are 6-3 and now trail the 9-2 Patriots by several games for the AFC East crown. With Tampa Bay in particular, that’s a defense built to throw the ball against this year. Their secondary is very suspect, but they have a great run defense thanks to the presence of Vita Vea up front.

That’s not to say James Cook is going to rush for 30 yards this week, but I’d advise staying away from him having a big day (80+ yards). They need to get back to letting Josh Allen control the game through the air, turnovers be damned, and get this offense back on track.

That’s why my pick for this game is for the Bills to win and for Josh Allen to go over 217.5 passing yards in the process.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Bills ML & Josh Allen Over 217.5 Passing Yards (+144 at FanDuel)

Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills — (Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)

3. Chiefs at Broncos: The Biggest Game of Patrick Mahomes’ Regular Season Career?

Some are saying that Sunday in Denver is the biggest regular-season game in Patrick Mahomes’ career. There’s some truth to that as the Chiefs have rarely been challenged this much in the division, and a loss here would send them to 5-5 and the Broncos to 9-2, so that would be an almost impossible deficit to overcome if the Chiefs want to win the AFC West for the 10th year in a row.

The Chiefs are a 3.5-point road favorite in a game with a total of 44.5 points that may in fact be low scoring. It was a 16-14 game last year when the Chiefs played their starters against Denver, the fewest points the Chiefs have scored in a start with Mahomes since New Year’s Eve in 2023. They also would have lost that game at Arrowhead if they didn’t block a 35-yard field goal in the closing seconds, and Bo Nix played well as a rookie against Steve Spagnuolo’s defense.

But the Chiefs are coming off a bye week and are 6-1 in the regular season after those with Mahomes. The only loss was to the 2023 Eagles. But despite a 13-1 record against Denver, the Broncos have given Mahomes more trouble than most defenses over the years. He was held to 9 points in 2023 in a flu game loss.

However, check the NFL injury report for this one. We know Denver corner Patrick Surtain II is out again, so that should be good news for the Chiefs’ wide receivers, especially Rashee Rice. The Broncos could also be without J.K. Dobbins, their best running back.

Mahomes is going to have to get the ball out extra fast this week as Denver’s pass rash has been unreal with 46 sacks in 10 games, a historic pace and 18 more than any other defense entering Week 11. That’s not going to change without Surtain as they’ll be aggressive in coming after Mahomes.

But the good news for Kansas City is it should have rookie left tackle Josh Simmons back after he just disappeared for personal reasons for the last month. Right tackle Jawaan Taylor has also been a full participant in practice, so it’s looking good for Mahomes to have his starting tackles in Denver. We know this offense has lost some big games when multiple linemen were out, including both Super Bowl losses. They should avoid that situation against the league’s best pass rush.

The Chiefs are 0-4 in close games this year while the Broncos are 5-2 with four comeback wins in the fourth quarter. But the Broncos have also blown two fourth-quarter leads in their losses, and Mahomes has never lost five straight one-score games in his career.

I like the Chiefs to step up to the moment coming out of their bye week and win this game by 1-13 points on the road to keep the AFC West race alive.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Chiefs win by 1-13 points (+115 at FanDuel)

4. Bengals at Steelers: Unc Bowl II

The infamous “Unc Bowl” between the oldest quarterbacks in the NFL, Joe Flacco and Aaron Rodgers, was actually one of the season’s best-played duels at the position in Week 7. The Bengals prevailed 33-31 despite four touchdown passes from Rodgers.

Now with the rematch in Pittsburgh, it does make me recall that the Bengals have been much better in Pittsburgh than they have been at home against the Steelers, and that’s a trend that goes back over two decades.

However, we have different people involved here with Rodgers, Flacco, and the Bengals defense may never have been worse during Zac Taylor’s tenure than it is right now. Keep in mind it’s a defense that is doubtful to have Trey Hendrickson and Shemar Stewart available for the pass rush due to injuries, so Rodgers may catch a break there.

Rodgers is coming off one of the worst games of his career, so you should expect him to bounce back with a much better effort against a truly terrible defense that couldn’t guard any of his tight ends a month ago.

It’s hard to fathom the Steelers getting swept by Cincinnati as a 5.5- point favorite, especially with the Steelers (5-4) trying to hold off Baltimore in the AFC North race despite the odds heavily back in Baltimore’s favor (-290) to win the division. The Steelers can’t afford to drop winnable home games like this.

That’s why I like Rodgers to throw a couple of touchdowns and get the win over Flacco and the Bengals this time. But Flacco will still throw for 200+ yards just because that’s so easy for him to do in this offense with those receivers.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Steelers ML & Aaron Rodgers Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns & Joe Flacco 200+ Passing Yards (+147 at FanDuel)

CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA - AUGUST 21: Aaron Rodgers #8 of the Pittsburgh Steelers looks on from the sidelines during a NFL Preseason 2025 game against the Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium on August 21, 2025 in Charlotte, North Carolina. — (Photo by Logan Bowles/Getty Images)

5. J&J Pick Parade

We have a 2-leg parlay for quarterbacks to throw interceptions this Sunday:

Jameis Winston 1+ Interception vs. Packers
J.J. McCarthy 1+ Interception vs. Bears

Because of Jaxson Dart’s concussion, Jameis Winston is in line to start the first game since the team fired coach Brian Daboll on Monday. We know Winston can light it up, but he doesn’t have a great receiving corps around him this week, and he’s not as good at scrambling and using his legs like Dart does in this offense.

Winston’s reputation for picks also precedes him. In fact, I haven’t seen FanDuel offer lines for multiple interceptions like they have for Winston right now. They’re tempting to take too, but we’ll stick with Green Bay’s pass rush causing at least one pick as the Packers try to get right after consecutive losses where the defense played well.

As for J.J. McCarthy, he’s a wild man with the football as you might expect from a quarterback with four career starts. But he’s thrown a pick in all four games, and that includes a pick on opening night against these Bears, who are playing decent defense. McCarthy has also thrown 2 picks in each home game, so don’t think the dome is going to protect him from doing that. He sometimes just lobs one up and that’s to be expected of someone this inexperienced.

The Bears just better catch it when he does that.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Parlay – Jameis Winston 1+ Interception & J.J. McCarthy 1+ Interception (+145 at FanDuel)

6. Seahawks at Rams: NFC Game of the Year?

Who would have imagined Seahawks at Rams in Week 11 might be the NFC Game of the Year? It’s a huge one in the NFC West with both teams at 7-2 and both playing some of the best football in the league on both sides of the ball. We have a 3-leg parlay that is very much a case of “big-time players make big-time plays in big-time games”:

Davante Adams Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Sam Daronld Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 100.5 Receiving Yards

Call me a coward if you will, but the game is too close to call for a winner right now. But our parlay does slightly lean towards the Rams at home as we’re looking for Davante Adams to score another touchdown. Puka Nacua is the top chains mover in this offense, but Adams is who Matthew Stafford looks for in the red zone on those short touchdown throws. He should get one here.

But we expect Sam Darnold to play well against the defense that sacked him 9 times in the playoffs when he was with Minnesota. I don’t see the Seahawks having much rushing success in this game, so it’s going to be Darnold through the air, and that doesn’t always mean Jaxon Smith-Njigba is on the receiving end of his scores. It could be a game where new acquisition Rashid Shaheed finds the end zone, but we’ll just play it safe and take Darnold to throw multiple touchdowns against a defense that Geno Smith had multiple touchdowns against twice last year.

As for JSN, we will take him to go over 100 yards again. He’s done it in 6-of-9 games played this year and that’s even with Seattle having low passing volume in some of those games. He’s just been that special in his connection with Darnold, and he also had 180 yards against the Rams in a game last year.

This should be a good one though.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Davante Adams Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Sam Darnold Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns & Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 100.5 Receiving Yards (+396 at FanDuel)

7. Lions at Eagles: Sunday Night Parlay

Finally, for Sunday Night Football’s big NFC showdown between the Lions and Eagles (-2.5), we have an 8-leg parlay that is almost +4000 odds:

Detroit Lions ML
Jahmyr Gibbs Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 75.5 Receiving Yards
Jalen Hurts Over 203.5 Passing Yards
DeVonta Smith Over 57.5 Receiving Yards
Saquon Barkley Under 70.5 Rushing Yards
Jalen Hurts 20+ Rushing Yards
Dallas Goedert 30+ Receiving Yards

The first leg says a lot about the theme and logic behind our SGP here. The Lions always hear about how they don’t beat the elite teams on the road away from the dome after losses to the Packers and Chiefs this year. But they did beat the Ravens with a great performance in prime time, and granted, the Ravens weren’t playing good defense at the time.

But what even are these 2025 Eagles? They’re middle of the road in so many stats on both sides of the ball. They keep winning close games and they disappear for full halves at a time. They don’t seem to get A.J. Brown involved unless you’re playing man coverage a lot, a trap the Lions better avoid with their shorthanded secondary.

But this is a game where I think the Lions show up big as these teams have the best records in the NFC the last two years, and yet we haven’t seen them play each other since the 2022 season. Dan Campbell covers the spread two-thirds of the time as an underdog, and he was on fire as the offensive play-caller last week as the Lions scored on their first eight drives before running out the clock.

I think Detroit takes this one on the road, and that means Jahmyr Gibbs finding the end zone as he often does. That means Amon-Ra St. Brown having a big night and going over in yards.

On defense, we said the Detroit secondary can give up plays and yards, and even someone like Marcus Mariota had some decent numbers in garbage time loss last year. Jalen Hurts is capable of stepping up when need be, and he wasn’t needed much in Monday’s 10-7 win at Green Bay. But I expect a vastly different game this week where he throws for over 203.5 passing yards while rushing for at least 20 yards as a scrambler.

I’m just fading A.J. Brown altogether as I’m tired of getting burned by him in 2025. Meanwhile, DeVonta Smith has taken over as the No. 1 receiver, so he should be good for over 57.5 yards in this one. We also like tight end Dallas Goedert as that third option to go over 30 yards, a conservative estimate.

Finally, Detroit is sound against the run, and Saquon Barkley has been held to 60 rushing yards in 7-of-9 games this year if you can believe it. By taking his under 70.5 rushing yards, we’re just going for his new standard this year.

But we need Detroit to come up big for this one to work.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – 8 Legs (+3930 at FanDuel)

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