Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 14

Scott Kacsmar05/12/2025 - 02:47 pm

The NFL has a great Week 14 schedule, and we already watched the Lions take care of Dallas last night in a 44-30 win. But we have NFL picks for many of this weekend’s biggest games, including Colts vs. Jaguars, Steelers vs. Ravens, Bengals vs. Bills, and Texans vs. Chiefs.

In recapping our Week 13 picks, the Texans came through against the Colts for the spread, Brock Purdy and the 49ers had their underwhelming offensive win against the Browns (+139), and the 3-leg of favorites (+199) also hit. Unfortunately, the Rams were an all-around bad pick in Carolina, the Falcons embarrassed themselves against the Jets, and both Pennsylvania teams got ran over at home.

Each Friday, we will share seven NFL picks for the weekend. These can be prop picks, spreads, totals, alternate lines, moneylines, teasers, same game parlays, etc. We like to think outside the box instead of just telling you to play the moneyline of big favorites. You can play any of the picks as singles or parlay your favorite choices together. I do tweet winners from time to time before island games kick off, by the way.

Note: Picks are ranked in order of confidence (highest to lowest).

1. Bengals at Bills: Passing Fancy

We’re going to start the week with a simple 2-leg parlay for the Cincinnati vs. Buffalo clash that centers on the quarterbacks:

Joe Burrow Over 34.5 Passing Attempts
Josh Allen 200+ Passing Yards

Of course, the first ever game between Josh Allen and Joe Burrow was supposed to happen on a Monday night in 2022 on the night that Damar Hamlin (cardiac arrest) nearly died on the field and the game was cancelled and never made up. They met in the playoffs the following month, and the Bengals pulled off a stunning 27-10 upset. They met a year later in the 2023 regular season and the Bengals again controlled play in a 24-18 win.

And if you extrapolate the few drives we saw in the Hamlin game, the Bengals looked good in that one too, so maybe the Bills are a team they have a read on. But the fact is we haven’t seen these teams play in two years, and the Bengals still come in with the No. 32 scoring defense despite some better play in recent weeks.

My original pick for this game was just going to be a Dalton Kincaid touchdown (+200 at FanDuel), because the Bengals allow by far the most yards and touchdowns to tight ends this year. He’s also Josh Allen’s best receiving weapon, but there’s no guarantee he even returns to play this week.

So, I’m going with two things I believe to be true here. The Bengals will let Joe Burrow throw the heck out of the ball even if the Buffalo defense is built to stop the pass and are poor against the run. Burrow had 32 passes in the first half against the Ravens last week, and while that was shaking off the rush, I think he’ll keep throwing enough in this one to get over 34.5 attempts, a norm for him.

But I also think Allen has to step up against one of the league’s worst defenses. He didn’t throw much in Pittsburgh last week with how well the ground game worked and the windy conditions. I know it’s that time of year where you really need to check the weather for these outdoor games, but I see a high of 31 and maybe some flurries in Buffalo, so it shouldn’t be anything these teams aren’t used to.

I’ll trust the quarterbacks to show up and deliver volume. I didn’t say efficiency, but volume is the play here.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Joe Burrow Over 34.5 Passing Attempts & Josh Allen 200+ Passing Yards (+140) at BetMGM

2. I Love LA, I Hate LA

We have a 2-leg parlay for very different outcomes for the Los Angeles teams and the moneyline in their games this week:

Rams ML at Cardinals
Eagles ML at Chargers

The Rams have already lost twice this season as a favorite of 9+ points, something only two Super Bowl winners have done in the last 50 years (none since the 1995 Cowboys). They remain the Super Bowl favorite right now, but I think they’ll bounce back from the Carolina loss and beat the Cardinals on the road. Arizona plays better than its record but just can’t close out the tight games, a career trend for Jacoby Brissett.

That one’s the easy call. The tougher game is Monday night as you never know what the Eagles will do this year. They can look so good for one half then get outscored by multiple touchdowns the rest of the way. They’ve already blown big leads to the Broncos and Cowboys this year. They were dominated on the ground at home against Chicago, and Jalen Carter had a shoulder procedure done this week that will keep him out of action on Monday night.

But the Eagles may catch a break as Justin Herbert is unlikely to be 100% if he plays. He fractured his left hand (non-throwing hand) in Sunday’s game against the Raiders, and it required surgery on Monday. It seems crazy that you can have hand surgery and play one week later, but that’s what Herbert is fixing to do.

But I say let’s use that against him. He’ll probably try to get the ball out quickly and not take hits, which is his goal regardless of the injury. That just puts it more on his mind, and without his offensive tackles in there, he’s going to face his share of pressure and hits as he’s been doing for weeks now. But the Eagles have the talent in the secondary to make him pay with an interception or two, and let’s face it, Herbert hasn’t shaken that stigma of underperforming in big games.

A Monday night game in a battle of 8-4 teams is a high-profile game even if it isn’t overly important for the playoff standings as other games coming up for the Chargers. But I think the Eagles turn over Herbert, who has a career high 2.5% interception rate this season as he’s hit turnover regression. I think the Eagles end their 2-game skid, Saquon Barkley avoids a career-tying 5-game streak without a touchdown, and the Eagles pull this one out on the road.

One LA team wins, and the other loses. And it’s exactly who you’d expect in each role.

Scott’s NFL Pick: LA Parlay – Rams ML & Eagles ML (+108) at FanDuel

3. Colts at Jaguars: Does the Streak Continue?

One of the wildest streaks in the NFL is how the Colts haven’t won in Jacksonville since 2014, the year Andrew Luck took them to the AFC Championship Game. You know, the last year things felt normal in Indy. I know there was a game where the teams met in London during this run, but the Colts just always seem to implode down there, and they’ve given up 37 points to the Jags on the road these last two years with Shane Steichen as their head coach.

(Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)

This also means Trevor Lawrence is 4-0 at home against the Colts, and he’s usually sharp against this defense. His three highest career games in completion percentage (all above 82%) are against the Colts, and we know Lawrence is basically someone who has to get to at least 60% completions if he’s going to win a game in the NFL. He’s been getting more comfortable with new receiver Jakobi Meyers, who could have his way with a secondary that won’t have Sauce Gardner due to injury.

Health is turning on the Colts as Daniel Jones plays on a fractured fibula. In the last two games, the Colts are averaging 18 points despite only having one sack and no turnovers, so it’s not even a matter of gross turnovers at a high volume like they had in their losses to the Rams and Steelers earlier this year. They’re just getting stopped cold by the Chiefs and Texans these last two weeks after they were the most efficient offense in the NFL for half a season.

The Jaguars can force takeaways with the best of them in the NFL this year, Lawrence is usually reliable against them, the Jags have scored at least 25 points in every game since the bye (4-1 record), and this looks like two teams headed in opposite directions.

I’m going with the momentum here and taking the Jaguars to win as a 1.5-point home underdog and take control of the AFC South.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Jaguars ML (+104) at FanDuel

4 Titans at Browns: Cam Ward vs. Shedeur Sanders

There are many disparaging ways you can describe Titans (1-11) vs. Browns (3-9) this week. The Toilet Bowl would be one way, for example. But let’s look at it from the viewpoint of it’s the battle between what many thought would be the first two quarterbacks off the board in the 2025 draft.

Cam Ward was always the no-brainer No. 1 pick, though he’s hardly shown he deserved that respect in Tennessee this year in a bad situation. Shedeur Sanders was supposed to be a top 10 pick before falling to Cleveland in the fifth round, and we know a big reason for that was teams not wanting to deal with the circus over a backup.

Well, he’s the starter now, and things haven’t gone that great. But in this matchup, I like the pick with plus odds (+128 at FanDuel) of Sanders finishing with more passing yards than Cam Ward. Sanders is at home, he’s got some big-play ability in him, and the Tennessee defense is much worse than the Cleveland defense, which is actually great and has been hampered by a poor offense.

But I think Sanders meets the moment to show up Ward here, and he’ll finish the game with more passing yards. We’ve already seen Ward struggle to throw for 112 and 108 yards in other games against defenses like the Broncos and Texans. I think the Browns can hold him under 200 here too.

This isn’t a pick you make because you think Sanders is better than Ward, which he likely isn’t. It’s because of the difference in defenses they’ll see. Also, if there’s a game this year where Sanders might light it up to justify his cult-like following of fans, it’s the one at home against the 1-11 Titans, the worst team in the NFL.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Most Passing Yards – Shedeur Sanders (+128) at FanDuel

5. Texans at Chiefs: The Season Is On the Line

We have a 3-leg SGP for the huge showdown at Arrowhead on Sunday night between the Texans and Chiefs. Kansas City is a 3.5-point home favorite, but at 6-6 and facing the prospects of having three offensive linemen out against the No. 1 defense, it’s a tough task for the Chiefs:

Travis Kelce 4+ Receptions
Patrick Mahomes 15+ Rushing Yards
Texans +3.5

Houston’s defense was great last year too and is playing even better this year. The stakes weren’t nearly this high, but the Chiefs did go into their Week 16 meeting last December in a tough spot with these Texans. Patrick Mahomes was coming off an ankle sprain against the Browns, but he wasn’t going to miss this game with Houston. He scrambled for a 15-yard touchdown run to start the game and finished with 1 sack on 47 plays in a 27-19 win.

The teams met a month later in the AFC divisional round. In a 23-14 win, Mahomes took 3 sacks and C.J. Stroud ended up taking 8 with many coming on the final drive.

Going into this Sunday, expectations are for a low-scoring, ugly game as is Houston’s specialty this year. But I think Mahomes will have to get the ball out very fast to negate that pass rush, so that’s why our first leg is for Travis Kelce to have at least 4 catches. If this ends up being one of the last big games of Kelce’s career, he has to put on a show and give it his best. His longest catch of 2024 came in the playoffs against Houston too. That’s who Mahomes still trusts the most.

We need to see Playoff Mahomes in this one, and that means he uses his legs to run for first downs. We’ll take him for 15+ rushing yards, which he could do on one play like he showed last year against Houston.

But the reason Mahomes is going to have to be great beyond the stakes and level of defense is because he is likely going to be without both tackles (Josh Simmons and Jawaan Taylor) and right guard Trey Smith, giving him three backup linemen against an elite pass rush with the season on the line.

What does that sound like? It sounds like Super Bowls 55 (Tampa Bay) and 59 (Philly) all over again. Games where Mahomes had multiple linemen out or playing out of position, and those defenses just pressured him with four-man rushes and got home repeatedly for big stops in blowouts.

The good news is Mahomes is at home where he’s 17-1 in his last 18 starts, and the Texans are unlikely to score 30 points without help from turnovers/return touchdowns. Steve Spagnuolo’s defense has been terrible at blitzing and terrible at getting pressure this year, but at least the defense has done well at home. It’s the road where they fall apart, so if this game was in Houston, the Texans moneyline would be an easy call.

“I thought [yesterday] was the best no-helmet practice that we’ve had here in seven years… they have just jacked it up in their preparation because they know the margin for error now is really, really small.”

Steve Spagnuolo on the defense’s mentality heading into Week 14. pic.twitter.com/dk8xbiL3Sw
— KC Sports Network (@KCSportsNetwork) December 4, 2025

However, I said in the offseason that if you ever put the Chiefs on the big stage with multiple linemen out against a great defense, I can’t trust picking them to win anymore. Not after seeing another Super Bowl blowout after that.

That’s why I’m going to take Houston +3.5 here, and they have a real chance to win this one and kill Kansas City’s playoff chances with a 6-7 record. The Texans also need this game desperately to keep their playoff hopes alive, so if the good version of Stroud can show up, they’re going to have a real shot to win it as the Chiefs just aren’t the same team on third downs anymore, and their offense is built around Mahomes being a playmaker out of structure more than ever.

How many plays are you going to make against this Houston defense down three linemen? It’s not looking promising for the Chiefs, but we’ll see if their defense can rise to the occasion at home as they did twice against this opponent a year ago.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – 3 Legs (+226 at FanDuel)

6. Steelers at Ravens: AFC North Battle

We have a 2-leg parlay for the best rivalry in the AFC North as it enters a crucial chapter with the Steelers and Ravens coming off ugly home losses. Both are 6-6 and both have ailing quarterbacks who have seen better days.

Steelers Over 9.5 Points First Half
Derrick Henry Anytime Touchdown Scorer

Tale as old as time, the Steelers and Ravens meet for a big clash in the AFC North, and one of the quarterbacks may miss the game due to injury. Lamar Jackson hasn’t looked good after his hamstring injury knocked him out for a few games, and he hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass in his last three games. He’s missed practice this week, so you can’t rule out the chance we see Tyler Huntley start instead.

But the Ravens have a good shot to win this one at home as the Steelers just don’t have it this year on either side of the ball. Aaron Rodgers turned 42 this week and is lacking the wideouts he needs to punish defenses, and the hits are starting to take their toll on him. They also don’t adjust well in games and do poorly after halftime. The defense is basically 100% dependent on takeaways, which serve them well when they get them against the Patriots, Colts, and Bengals. But otherwise, they look terrible.

However, I’m going with the Steelers to start stronger in this game after Rodgers’ public criticism of the offense this past week. I think they get to at least 10 points by halftime, and let’s just forget about the second half. Mike Tomlin usually does this year.

Then on the other side, it’s hard to ignore the way the Steelers gave up 249 rushing yards to Buffalo last week. It’s their most since giving up 299 to the Ravens in the playoffs last year, led by Derrick Henry’s big day. With or without Jackson, the Ravens need to lean on Henry here, and I think he finds the end zone against the worst Pittsburgh defense in years.

But this is a rivalry where you can ignore the spread, the records, and the recent play (which hasn’t been great for either team). It’s usually a close game, and with the first place lead up for grabs in the AFC North, it’s a big one that should hopefully bring out the best in both teams.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Steelers Over 9.5 Points First Half & Derrick Henry Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+204 at FanDuel)

7. Week 14 Touchdown Scorer Parlay

Finally, we have a simple 3-leg parlay of anytime touchdown scorers this weekend:

Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) vs. Saints
Justin Jefferson (Vikings) vs. Commanders
D’Andre Swift (Bears) at Packers

Bucky Irving returned last week for the Bucs and scored a touchdown. He’s still the team’s best overall back, and he gets a juicy home matchup with the Saints, a team they already beat without Irving in New Orleans. But the Bucs were repeatedly stopped at the 1-yard line in that game. I think with Irving back, he gets into the end zone at home again.

J.J. McCarthy is back at quarterback for the Vikings, which sounds awful until you remember what Max Brosmer did against Seattle. But this is playing the matchup. McCarthy will be at home in his dome against one of the worst defenses in the league in Washington, who let Bo Nix throw for over 300 yards last week. With Justin Jefferson appearing on milk cartons for the team’s terrible quarterback play as of late, look for him to score his 3rd touchdown of the year from a McCarthy pass. We’re trusting the matchup.

In the big Bears vs. Packers showdown, I like D’Andre Swift at plus odds (+170) to score a touchdown, something he did in both matchups last year. The Bears just ran all over the Eagles, and while they may not repeat that in Green Bay, I think they have a good day and Swift is a big part of that.

If Caleb Williams can play as well as he did against a Green Bay defense without Micah Parsons last year, I like to believe Ben Johnson with 10 days to prepare can cook something up here for this offense to get Swift into the end zone.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Touchdown Scorer Parlay – Bucky Irving & Justin Jefferson & D’Andre Swift (+1214 at FanDuel)

Related Articles:

Table of Contents