2025 NFC Championship Game Preview: Rams vs. Seahawks Is Super Bowl LX Two Weeks Early
The 2025 NFL season has been building towards Super Bowl LX in February, but we might just be getting the real Super Bowl this Sunday evening in Seattle when the Seahawks face the Los Angeles Rams in their rubber match in the NFC Championship Game.
They already played each other in the Game of the Year in Week 16, a 38-37 classic on a Thursday night where the Rams blew a 30-14 lead in the final 10:00. It’s the first game in NFL history that ended with a game-winning 2-point conversion in overtime after both teams scored a touchdown. Don’t forget that game also included the craziest 2-point conversion in NFL history just to tie things at 30, which is why this game is in Seattle instead of Los Angeles.
It’s only fitting we’d get a rematch on Championship Sunday. In fact, this matchup should have been inevitable as the Seahawks and Rams were clearly the best teams in the NFC this season. They dominated the scoreboard compared to the rest of the NFC:
This heavyweight matchup is a historic one. The Seahawks (+191) and Rams (+172) were both more than 100 points better in scoring differential than the rest of the NFC. That’s only happened in a conference two other times since the 1970 merger, and neither of those seasons saw those teams meet in the postseason like the Rams and Seahawks will with the Super Bowl on the line:
- The 2023 NFC just two years ago had the Cowboys (+194) and 49ers (+193) towering over the field, but Dallas was the first No. 2 seed to lose to a No. 7 seed (Packers) in the wild card round, and the 49ers lost the Super Bowl in overtime to the Chiefs.
- The 2012 AFC was dominated by the Patriots (+226) and Broncos (+192), but they didn’t meet in the title game because Joe Flacco and the Ravens upset them both at home on their way to winning Super Bowl 47.
These teams have played two games decided by a total of 3 points this season. Let’s hope for another classic matchup on Sunday, and given what’s going on in the AFC right now, the winner of this game is going to be the Super Bowl LX favorite too, so this one could be the “real” Super Bowl similar to how the 1994 NFC Championship Game (49ers vs. Cowboys) and 2006 AFC Championship Game (Colts vs. Patriots) were those seasons.
Rams coach Sean McVay turns 40 years old on Saturday, and he can improve to 11-5 in the playoffs with his third NFC Championship with a win. Seattle coach Mike Macdonald is only 38 and can get to his first Super Bowl in Year 2 as a head coach.
We have the full preview below and the AFC will be ready on Thursday.
Table of Contents
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-2.5, O/U 46.5)
The No. 5 Los Angeles Rams (14-5) will take on the No. 1 Seattle Seahawks (15-3) this Sunday evening in Seattle. It’s the rubber match to their 1-1 division rivalry this year that’s already produced some great games with both defenses stepping up at times. It’s also a classic matchup as you have the No. 1 offense with MVP hopeful Matthew Stafford and the No. 1 scoring defense trying to slow him down at home.
The score on the season is Rams 58, Seahawks 57, so it’s no surprise the spread is tight with the Seahawks a 2.5-point home favorite with a total of 47.5 points. The Rams have had to eek out some 3-point wins on the road in these playoffs while the Seahawks demolished the 49ers in a 41-6 win last week.
It’s also the second year in a row that Sam Darnold has to get past the Rams in the playoffs. He crumbled against the pass rush last year with the Vikings, but he has a better support system around him in Seattle that could carry him to his first Super Bowl if he avoids the mistakes most quarterbacks have failed to avoid in this turnover-heavy postseason.
The Last Matchups
- 2025 Week 11: Rams 21, Seahawks 19
- 2025 Week 16: Seahawks 38, Rams 37 (OT)
We’ve had two very close finishes between these NFC West rivals this season. The Rams led for the final 52 minutes of the first meeting at home, a 21-19 win where Sam Darnold threw four interceptions, which helped set up the Rams for short touchdown drives of 3 and 25 yards.
But despite the turnover deficit, the Seahawks had a chance in this one. That was largely because Stafford, who had his weapons at home, threw for a season-low 130 yards, his only game under 180 yards this year. He wasn’t sacked but he had his third-highest pressure rate and a season-low 4.6 yards per pass attempt. You could argue it was his least effective passing game of the season.
The Seahawks got a touchdown to make it 21-19 late, the Rams gave them the ball back because that’s what often happens to them in the four-minute offense under Sean McVay, and Darnold had his shot at redemption with 1:41 left from his own 1-yard line. But the drive was not well managed with one timeout left, and the best the Seahawks could do was set up a 61-yard field goal. Jason Myers couldn’t hit it, and the Rams held on for the win.
When it came time for the rematch in Week 16 on a Thursday night, we knew it had Game of the Year potential with two 11-3 teams battling for the No. 1 seed. Stafford was going to have to get it done without Davante Adams (hamstring) for the first time all year. He ended up throwing for 457 yards, 3 touchdowns, and again took no sacks, looking likely a completely different quarterback than the one who was held to 130 yards the first time at home.
But the Rams blew a 30-14 lead in the final 10:00 after allowing a punt return touchdown, some quick punts, a missed go-ahead field goal, and the Seahawks converted three times on 2-point conversions, including the walk-off score in overtime. The Rams are just the second team in NFL history to have over 550 yards and no turnovers in a loss. Stafford is the first and only quarterback to lead a go-ahead touchdown drive in overtime and not win the game.
Puka Nacua dominated the Seahawks that night with a career-high 133 YAC. He caught 8-of-10 targets for 178 yards and both of his touchdowns on in-breaking routes according to NFL Pro. He had 225 yards total, which means Stafford still threw for 232 yards to his other receivers (again, not including the inactive Adams). The Rams also dropped 5 passes that night, tied for a season worst.
If that version of Stafford shows up in this game, then the Rams should be okay on offense. But he hasn’t been quite that sharp in the playoffs, and it looks like the finger injury could be a problem. But at least he has yet to take a sack against Seattle. He had 4 sacks in Chicago though on Sunday.
Darnold was sacked 4 times in Week 16 and had two interceptions. He was the first quarterback since Alex Smith in 2017 to throw a pick in the fourth quarter down 15+ points and still won the game. But that got started with a punt return touchdown.
The Rams also had a huge offensive holding penalty go against them on a potential game-winning drive in the final minutes that turned 2nd-and-1 into 1st-and-20. That drive ended with Mevis missing a 48-yard field goal with 2:07 left.
In overtime, Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba both caught touchdowns. The Seahawks made the smart move to go for two for the win, and Darnold patiently found Eric Saubert for the win. It was a chip and late release for Saubert with some pick action going on over the middle to free him wide open in the end zone.
If you had to use these two games to predict what happens Sunday, Stafford’s performance will likely fall somewhere in between his two vastly different games against this defense. Darnold is going to have to clean some things up and play sharper though. Trust his running game. Trust his defense to keep him in it.
Injury Watch
The Rams should be fairly healthy, though it is worth noting that finger injury for Stafford that he suffered in the second quarter against the Panthers. His accuracy has diminished since that point, though playing in one of the coldest games in his career in snowy Chicago probably didn’t help. It should be around 40 degrees and just cloudy in Seattle on Sunday night. Fine weather.
But relative to their Week 16 meeting a month ago, the Rams have right guard Kevin Dotson and No. 2 wideout Davante Adams back in the lineup. That’s good for the running game, and while Stafford to Adams hasn’t looked great this postseason since his return from the hamstring injury, he had a few key grabs in the second half in Chicago.
As for the Seahawks, offensive tackle Charles Cross missed the Week 16 game and is considered day-to-day with his newest injury this week. It’s unclear if he’ll play but the team has won without him this year.
In that Week 16 game, the Seahawks had some injuries that happened during the game in the secondary that didn’t help matters. But it should be noted that Stafford threw for 167 yards on 12-of-18 passing in the first half, so he was good throughout the whole game and not just when the Seahawks had some players miss snaps with injury.
Those defensive backs also played much of the game anyway. Coby Bryant played 56 snaps, Riq Woolen played 42 snaps, and rookie safety Nick Emmanwori played 75 snaps. They should all be ready to go Sunday night.
But one player we won’t see the rest of the season is Seattle running back Zach Charbonnet, who tore his ACL against the 49ers. He had 37 and 32 rushing yards in the two games against the Rams this year with one touchdown. It hurts the backfield depth, but Kenneth Walker is still the lead back, so that just means more touches for their best back who already has 167 rushing yards on 27 carries against the Rams this season.
Also makes it easier to figure out which running back to bet to score a touchdown this week.
Stats to Know
Here are some relevant and informative statistics for these teams heading into this matchup:
- Over the last two seasons, Mike Macdonald’s Seahawks are 7-0 in rematches.
- After going 1-5 at game-winning drive opportunities in the regular season, the Rams are 2-0 in such games in the playoffs.
- In their last eight playoff games, the Rams have won by exactly 3 points five times.
- The Rams have allowed five game-winning drives this season, and they have allowed a game-tying or go-ahead touchdown drive late in the fourth quarter of both playoff games before going on their own game-winning drive.
- Sam Darnold is 8-20 (.286) at fourth-quarter comeback opportunities and 14-20 (.412) at game-winning drive opportunities in his career (4-3 this season).
- In 34 NFL playoff games between the No. 1 scoring offense (Rams) and No. 1 scoring defense (Seahawks), it’s tied 17-17 going into Sunday’s 35th meeting.
- The last such meeting was the 2020 NFC Divisional when the No. 1 offense (Packers) beat the No. 1 defense (Rams) in a 32-18 final.
- This will only be the 16th such meeting since the 1970 merger, and the No. 1 defense is 8-7.
- The No. 1 defense is 2-3 at home in the playoffs against the No. 1 offense (last win: 2014 Seahawks vs. Packers in NFC Championship Game).
- Seattle’s offense only has four games with 400+ yards this season but half of them are against the Rams (414 and 415).
- The Seahawks are 3-1 when turning the ball over at least 3 times, including both games against the Rams.
- The Rams are +6 in turnover differential against the Seahawks this year despite the scoreboard reading Rams 58-57.
- Two of the Seahawks’ five best games by special teams EPA have been against the Rams this year.
This is the 66th rematch from the regular season in a Conference Championship Game since 1978. Here are some stats associated with the first 65 rematches:
- The team who won the most recent meeting (Seahawks) is 37-28 (.569) in the playoffs.
- The home team is 44-21 (.677) in the playoffs.
- When the home team was the same for the last two meetings like it is here, the home team (Seattle) is 25-6 (.806) in the regular season and 20-11 (.645) in the playoffs.
- The home team has swept only 15-of-31 times (48.4%).
- When it’s a division rematch for the third time in the title game, the home team (Seattle) is 12-5 SU and 11-6 ATS.
- Only one team has ever lost the most recent division matchup, then won on the road in the Championship Game: 1985 Patriots lost 30-27 at Miami in Week 15 before winning in Miami 31-14 in the AFC Championship Game.
The Keys to Victory
What are the factors that should lead to a victory for each team this weekend?
Rams – MVP Form for Stafford and Make Darnold Drive Long Fields
You typically don’t expect your quarterback to go on the road against an elite defense and light it up to win the Conference Championship Game. But for the record, 12 times a quarterback has gone on the road and threw for at least 250 yards in a title game win, and six of them needed overtime to do it.
But only one of them (Chris Chandler for the 1998 Falcons) was able to win a shootout against a top 10 scoring defense. He just needed Minnesota kicker Gary Anderson to miss his first field goal of the season too.
The point is this probably isn’t the week for Stafford to throw for 400 yards and 3 touchdowns again. That didn’t result in a win last time, and that’s largely because the defense and special teams blew the 16-point lead late and then the 7-point lead in overtime.
Stafford has shown he can handle this defense, but since the finger injury in Carolina, he’s been a 50% passer at best. In fact, he made history in Chicago becoming the first quarterback in the Super Bowl era to throw the ball 40 times, complete under 50%, no touchdown passes, and still win the game on the road. Quarterbacks were 0-99-1 doing that before Stafford’s 20-17 win.
He’s throwing for decent yards and leading game-winning drives in the playoffs, but that’s going to be tougher against a top-ranked Seattle defense that’s seen this offense twice already.
For the Rams to win this game, it’s probably going to be more like the first game they won where the defense harassed Darnold into mistakes and flipped field position. That’s really what is so huge about turnovers as we’ve seen in these playoffs. Not only can you stop a possession and gain one for your offense, but you can often give them good field position to help them score easier.
That’s really been the genius of the Seahawks the last two months as their offense is not driving long fields for scores. They’re getting helped with short fields and even return touchdowns as the Rams know all too well from that punt return in Week 16, or the 95-yard kickoff return touchdown to start last week’s win by Rashid Shaheed.
- Through 11 games, the Seahawks had 55 scoring drives (tied for second most) and they averaged 57.6 yards per scoring drive (ranked 12th).
- Since Week 13, the Seahawks have 35 scoring drives (tied for fifth most) and they average 46.7 yards per scoring drive (ranked 30th; third shortest).
- Through 11 games, Seattle’s average offensive touchdown drive averaged 68.7 yards (8th longest).
- Since Week 13, Seattle’s average offensive touchdown drive averages just 48.7 yards – the only offense under 54.1 yards. This means their average touchdown drive starts in opponent territory since Week 13.
- Including the playoffs, the Seahawks have scored eight return touchdowns this season, and six of them have come since Week 10.
- The Seahawks are only 16th in offensive yards per drive (31.3) since Week 13.
Basically, the offense has gotten very mediocre at driving long fields in the last seven games, and their scoring has been fueled by great field position and return touchdowns since November.
This is why it becomes extra important this week for the Rams to play good special teams and avoid giving up turnovers to give Darnold short fields to work with. Make him go 70+ yards consistently and hope their lack of dominant weapons outside of Jaxon Smith-Njigba shows up and hurts them short of the end zone.
A hidden factor in why the Rams didn’t win the Game of the Year in Week 16 was field position. The Seahawks started every drive at their own 35 or better except for two (they gained 11 yards and scored no points on those two drives). They had four touchdown drives but none of them were longer than 65 yards.
But while the Rams had a 1-yard touchdown drive after a Darnold interception, 12 of their 13 other drives started inside their own 30, including nine drives that started at their own 24 or worse and seven drives that didn’t start past their own 20.
That adds up over the course of a game. The Rams have to play better special teams and not lose the turnover battle on the road. You lose the turnover battle, you might lose the field position battle badly, and you probably lose the game again.
Seahawks – Take Out Puka and Keep Darnold Comfortable
Seattle coach Mike Macdonald has faced Matthew Stafford and the Rams four times since 2023, including his time as the defensive coordinator of the top-ranked Baltimore defense in 2023. In that game, Stafford picked his defense apart on the road for 294 yards and 3 touchdowns (no picks and 2 sacks), but the Ravens won the game 37-31 in overtime on a punt return touchdown.
We covered the two 2025 meetings in detail above, but Stafford also won a 26-20 game in overtime at Seattle last season in a game where he had 298 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception, and no sacks again. It seems like Stafford is very good at not taking sacks against Macdonald’s disguised blitzes, and he has 10 touchdowns to only 1 interception. Crazy enough, three of the four games went to overtime.
Macdonald has made things tough on Stafford, but it’s hard to say the results are great in four games of keeping the veteran down on the scoreboard. He usually finds a way to get his points, and the one way we know he does it this year is by feeding his best receiver.
The Rams do a great job of getting Puka Nacua open by lining him up anywhere, including the backfield. But for a supposed defensive genius like Macdonald, I would hope he comes up with a much better plan to slow him down after he torched the secondary for 225 yards without Adams in Week 16. Nacua’s receiving prop is over/under 92.5 yards for what it’s worth.
I’m not sure the idea of letting Nacua get what he wants and clamping down the other receivers, including Adams, is a smart idea when so many of the big plays in this offense go to Nacua in key spots like the 3rd-and-6 on the game-winning drive against Chicago. That’s Nacua territory.
But there are five games this season where Nacua was held under 75 yards, and all five were on the road. He left the Baltimore win early with an injury, but with Nacua contained better, we saw the Rams only score 17 or 20 points on offense in the games against Atlanta and Chicago.
It feels like the 2005 Seahawks are the only defense that ever said enough was enough with one of these great receivers when they totally blanketed Steve Smith of the Panthers in the NFC Championship Game and won with ease since the Panthers had little depth. The Rams have Adams and some capable tight ends to do that, not to mention McVay’s play designs even if their 13 personnel (three tight ends) was a bust in Chicago last week.
But if the Seahawks do their best to limit Nacua in this one, then I’d take my chances with a shaky Stafford trying to throw to a post-hamstring injury Adams and those role players. Stafford is only 7-of-19 for 96 yards throwing to Adams in the playoffs.
If you’re not going to sack him, then force the ball to go away from Nacua and hope for an interception or two. Otherwise, the Seahawks need to continue defending the run well as McVay sometimes gets away from that in big games. But the Rams have rushed for the third (124) and fifth (119) most yards against the Seahawks this year, so that’s another area they need to tighten up this week with Dotson back at guard. Some of the best drives for the Rams in Chicago were the ones focused on the run.
As for the other side of the ball, it’s all about keeping Darnold comfortable in the biggest game of his life. The Seahawks were able to beat the Rams in Week 16 which should have given him some confidence after he avoided going 0-4 against them since 2024. They’ve also beaten the 49ers twice this month with the defense dominating both times.
But in his playoff win, Darnold got a kickoff return touchdown from Rashid Shaheed and that might have been enough to win the game the way the 49ers were playing. He only had to throw 17 passes, completing 12 for 124 yards and a touchdown to JSN.
Darnold has taken multiple sacks in four straight games, and the Rams and Vikings, two teams who arguably know him the best, were the only defenses to sack him 4 times in a game in 2025. He’ll have to control that better to not repeat last postseason when he had 9 sacks for 82 yards against the Rams. Though their pass rush hasn’t looked that strong at any point this year, Jared Verse and company can get it done when called on.
But it’s just a fact that 6-of-14 Darnold interceptions have come against the Rams this year, so that’s something he’ll have to watch out for. Don’t make life easier on the Rams’ No. 1 offense with short fields like he did the first game.
Trust your running game that’s had at least 135 yards in both matchups this year. Trust the defense and special teams to come through. If Darnold avoids the turnovers, he might just get his share of short fields again from his defense getting the turnovers from Stafford. Then he can just be a Jimmy Garoppolo-style game manager and get through this game with a win and off to the Super Bowl where he tries to do it one more time.
I’m not sold the Seattle defense is as dominant as Houston, but that team is a good example for Darnold of what not to do. The way C.J. Stroud just buried his team with four early picks in New England. Let that serve as a reminder for Darnold that playing it safe isn’t a bad thing when you have a complete team around you.
This has not been a postseason for superhero quarterbacks. Those guys are either injured or already eliminated because they tried to do too much. This tournament is coming down to who screws up the least, so embrace that bus driver role, Sam.
This just might be the real Super Bowl.
Best Bets and Prediction
It’s a close call here between these teams, who have been the Super Bowl favorites for many weeks now. The Seahawks probably win the first matchup even with the four interceptions if they get another 5-10 yards before the field goal attempt. The Rams win the second matchup if they do one thing on a long list of things better in Seattle, including just stopping a 2-point conversion in overtime.
It could be 2-0 Seattle just as easily as it could be 2-0 Rams here. I don’t know if we’ll get one that super close this Sunday as this postseason has already reached historic numbers in fourth-quarter lead changes with 14. I know if it came down to that late, I’d still trust Stafford to deliver over Darnold.
But I think if you look at the more recent play for the Rams on both sides of the ball, it hasn’t been as great as it should be. Too many mistakes from Stafford and the offense. Not enough splash plays or holding the lead properly by the defense. Special teams are always a concern too. Then I just go back to the little things like short-yardage runs, four-minute offense to seal games, it’s not where it needs to be for a championship season for the Rams.
Speaking of things not being championship level, I’ll present one last stat here that could end up deciding the game.
The Seahawks’ defense leads the NFL by allowing just 32.1% of third downs to be converted. While the Rams had a great offense this year, they are just 17th in third-down conversion rate (39.6%). The good news is they usually stay out of third down as they face the second-fewest attempts, but you’d expect a better conversion rate from a No. 1 scoring offense and All-Pro quarterback-led group.
In the first matchup, the Rams had a season-worst 2-of-11 game on third down (18.2%). In Week 16, the Rams were 8-of-20 (40%), their most attempts in a game by four plays. In the playoffs, the Rams are just 8-of-29 (27.6%) on third down while the Seahawks held the 49ers to 6-of-12 (50%) but 0-for-3 on fourth downs.
But the 49ers are also the No. 1 offense on third down this year (50%). With those playoff numbers added in, the Rams are No. 21 (38.0%). Pay extra attention to Puka, get Stafford into more third downs than he’s used to this season, and that could be the difference in this game along with a good home-field advantage and special teams edge.
That’s why I believe barring a Darnold disaster-class, which could always happen, the Seahawks are going to grind this one out at home and advance to Super Bowl LX. But I wouldn’t mind some more overtime action between these teams in what could easily be the best of the final three games in this NFL season.
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