Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 17

Scott Kacsmar26/12/2025 - 05:07 pm

BEREA, OH - AUGUST 05: Defensive End Myles Garrett #95 of the Cleveland Browns practices drills during Training Camp at their CrossCountry Mortgage Campus on August 5, 2024 in Berea, Ohio. — (Photo by Don Juan Moore/Getty Images)

The NFL had a trio of third-string quarterbacks starting games on Christmas, so it wasn’t the best start to Week 17 from a betting perspective. But we have NFL picks for some quality matchups this weekend, including Texans vs. Chargers, Eagles vs. Bills, and Rams vs. Falcons.

In recapping our Week 16 picks, it was a really good but not quite great week. I preached for weeks about Drake Maye throwing for 300 yards (+370) for the first time against the Ravens, and he delivered. So did Justin Herbert’s Chargers (+148) and Caleb Williams’ Bears (+168). But the Bills didn’t win by enough points in Cleveland, and the NFC South matchup between the Bucs and Panthers needed another field goal to go over.

Each Friday, we will share seven NFL picks for the weekend. These can be prop picks, spreads, totals, alternate lines, moneylines, teasers, same game parlays, etc. We like to think outside the box instead of just telling you to play the moneyline of big favorites. You can play any of the picks as singles or parlay your favorite choices together. I do tweet winners from time to time before island games kick off, by the way.

Note: Picks are ranked in order of confidence (highest to lowest).

1. Texans at Chargers: Playoff Déjà vu for Justin Herbert?

The first NFL game this weekend could be a great one with a playoff feel as the Los Angeles Chargers host the Houston Texans. It’s a rematch from the wild card playoffs, a 32-12 win by Houston at home when the defense intercepted Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert four times, a career high and one more than the three picks he had in the entire 2024 regular season.

The four picks weren’t all on Herbert, of course. One went through his tight end’s hands, and the fourth came in desperation in a 20-point hole with time running out. But this Houston defense has been terrorizing top quarterbacks the last two years, and they’ve already got Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes into some nasty stat lines recently.

With Herbert, you’re talking about the fear of pass protection – he took 4 sacks in January’s playoff loss too – without his top offensive tackles this year. He’s also thrown 12 interceptions with a career-high interception rate of 2.5%, so regression has come for him for that fluky season with just 3 picks before January’s playoff loss.

I looked at the odds for Herbert to throw a pick this week and they’re almost even money, which is great value for a red-hot Houston defense that started last week’s game with a pick-six against Geno Smith. They won’t get four picks again from Herbert, but I think they force him into one because of the cumulative pressure and hits they’re going to have on him in this big game.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Justin Herbert Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted (-106) at FanDuel

2. The AFC North Parlay: Making Myles Garrett Sad

We have a fun 2-leg parlay that will make Cleveland’s Myles Garrett sad as he needs one more sack to set the single-season record in the 16th game of the season. Here’s the parlay for Saturday night and Sunday afternoon:

Packers ML vs. Ravens
Aaron Rodgers (Steelers) Under 30.5 Pass Attempts at Browns

Here’s the thought process: If the Packers (-4.5) beat the Ravens at home on Saturday night, the Steelers win the AFC North and the Ravens are eliminated. Given that Lamar Jackson (back) is doubtful to play, the Ravens are 5-12 without him available, and the Packers are just a better coached team right now, I expect Green Bay to win that game.

That will allow the Steelers to rest starters in Cleveland with the division wrapped up, but I still think Mike Tomlin is going to play his guys to win except for maybe T.J. Watt (lung) and anyone that’s truly questionable.

Currently, the prop bets are there for Aaron Rodgers, who has a line of O/U 30.5 pass attempts and O/U 196.5 passing yards. But the Browns have an elite pass defense, wide receiver D.K. Metcalf is suspended after punching at a fan in Detroit on Sunday, and the Steelers may not be interested in throwing the ball much here.

In fact, I fully expect Rodgers to throw under 30.5 passes as the Steelers lean on the ground attack as that’s where Cleveland is vulnerable. But it also has a deeper meaning since few pass attempts means fewer opportunities for Garrett to break the sack record against the Steelers, a record T.J. Watt owns a share of when he did it in 15 games in 2021. I think the Steelers will want to protect that record from Garrett and will go out of their way to not put the ball in the air here.

Should the Packers win and the Steelers sit Rodgers in favor of Mason Rudolph at quarterback, then I still like the under on pass attempts for whoever is the passer for Pittsburgh on Sunday.

Any under will do.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Parlay – Packers ML & Aaron Rodgers Under 30.5 Pass Attempts (+157) at FanDuel

3. Bears at 49ers: Another Super Bowl Run Coming?

The 2025 San Francisco 49ers are one of the most overlooked 11-win teams in NFL history. Their long list of injuries earlier this season had people writing them off while they were winning games with Mac Jones at quarterback, and the Seahawks and Rams were doing great things in the NFC West too.

But look where things are going into Week 17. The 49ers can win at home against the Bears and Seahawks, and they may never have to leave Levi’s Stadium the rest of the year. They’d get the No. 1 seed, have home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, and even Super Bowl 60 is going to be played in their stadium. Maybe this is the right year after all for Kyle Shanahan’s team.

They also go into Sunday night’s game with Chicago as a 3-point favorite and Brock Purdy coming off a career-high 5 touchdown passes against the Colts. What’s Purdy’s weakness? Getting into bad turnovers like he did earlier this season. What do the Bears do well this year? Their defense creates more turnovers than anyone. But I think Purdy, who has the highest QBR (75.8) this year, protects the ball and leans on Christian McCaffrey in a game where tight end George Kittle (ankle) is unlikely to be 100%.

The Bears are not good against the run (27th in yards, 29th in yards per carry). They watched eight different Packers carry the ball against them last week. But the 49ers are so heavy on touches for CMC this year with 372 in 15 games to lead the league. This offense is working too as it hasn’t punted since November.

Chicago is having a good season, but the Bears rely so much on turnovers and winning a record six games after trailing in the final 2:00. Look for San Francisco’s veteran coaching staff to get the upper hand here, to seize the moment with a No. 1 seed on the line, for McCaffrey to go over 66.5 rushing yards, and the 49ers cover the spread at home for their 12th win of the year.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Christian McCaffrey Over 66.5 Rushing Yards & 49ers -3 (+160) at FanDuel

4. Jaguars at Colts: The Comeback Players of the Year?

The Comeback Player of the Year is a tricky award as someone like Trevor Lawrence in the past would have been a strong candidate in 2025 for the “he stunk but he was good this year” case of winning it. In fact, that’s why Philip Rivers won the award in 2013 when he had a bounce-back season for the San Diego Chargers.

But Rivers has the third-best odds (+1400 at FanDuel) behind Lawrence (+900) and Christian McCaffrey (-750) to win the award this year after his improbable comeback at age 44 after five years of retirement. He threw for 273 yards and 2 touchdowns against the 49ers, a good defense, on Monday night in a losing effort.

In this rematch from Week 14, the Colts are at home and have the slimmest of playoff hopes that can even be dashed by Saturday evening if Houston wins at the Chargers. But they’re going to fight here, and the Jaguars are still looking for a higher seed too.

I have a 3-leg parlay on the quarterbacks:

Philip Rivers Over 206.5 Passing Yards – The Colts threw for 205 yards in Jacksonville with Riley Leonard coming off the bench, their defense is playing terrible, and this should be a high-scoring game, so Rivers is going to have to pass with Jonathan Taylor getting shut down lately.
Trevor Lawrence Over 235.5 Passing Yards – Some of Lawrence’s best passing games of his career are against Indy, and he’s in the zone right now. He had 279 yards in Denver after 330 (Jets) and 244 (Colts) passing yards in his previous two games.
Trevor Lawrence Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns – He’s thrown multiple touchdowns in five straight games, he had 3 at Denver, 5 against the Jets, 2 against the Colts, and the Colts just let Brock Purdy throw 5 on them in their building on Monday night.

I like the quarterbacks to keep slinging it well in this one as the Jaguars have been one of the hottest, most consistent offenses since their bye week, and the Colts at least have a good offensive system in place to put up some numbers with Rivers.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – 3 Legs (+290 at FanDuel)

5. Seahawks at Panthers: Bryce Young’s Moment?

We have a little 4-leg parlay game script for the big clash in Carolina between division leaders:

Bryce Young 1+ Passing Touchdown
Bryce Young 175+ Passing Yards
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 60+ Receiving Yards
Panthers +10.5 Alternate Spread (teased from +7.5)

This season, the Panthers are 5-1 ATS as a home underdog, and we’ve already seen them upset teams like the Packers, Rams, and Buccaneers in wins this season. That’s why they are currently 8-7 and in a position to win the NFC South for the first time since 2015.

Bryce Young has saved many of his best moments for late in games and in games against the best teams, a trend he showed in 2024 as well. The Seattle defense is tough, but Young has hit 175 passing yards with a touchdown pass in six games this year, including 4-of-6 home games where he’s played better than on the road.

Finally, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been fantastic this year, the Carolina secondary is not great, and JSN has hit at least 79 yards in 14-of-15 games (23 yards vs. Vikings) in this one, so 60+ yards is a neat way to get this one to +200 for four legs.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – 4 Legs (+200 at FanDuel)

CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA - NOVEMBER 03: Bryce Young #9 of the Carolina Panthers runs off the field after winning his game against the New Orleans Saints at Bank of America Stadium on November 03, 2024 in Charlotte, North Carolina. — (Photo by Matt Kelley/Getty Images)

6. Rams at Falcons: Spoiling Matthew Stafford’s MVP?

We have a 4-leg parlay for Monday night between the Rams and Falcons, a game that could cement or destroy Matthew Stafford’s MVP case as the Rams (11-4) are struggling defensively at the wrong time, Kirk Cousins is a crafty veteran, and don’t discount the pass defense for Atlanta:

Falcons Over 20.5 Points – The Rams had the No. 1 scoring defense going into Week 13 but they have allowed 31, 17, 34, and 38 points in their last four games. The Falcons have scored at least 23 points in 7-of-8 games going back to Week 9.
Kirk Cousins Over 218.5 Passing Yards – Cousins has his full arsenal of weapons with Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Bijan Robinson. He’s a veteran who is familiar with this defensive scheme, and it’s likely a game he’ll need to throw to keep the Falcons competitive, so this feels like an easy call for him to go over in another “Unc Bowl” this year between the old quarterbacks.
Matthew Stafford Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted – Stafford has just 5 interceptions and leads the NFL in lowest pick rate (1.0%), but do not ignore the Falcons’ ability to generate sacks and pressure quarterbacks into mistakes. Stafford has never been the kind of guy to post low Aaron Rodgers-like interception totals, so I think he gets picked off here at least once.
Falcons +8.5 – We already have the Falcons scoring 21+ points here and picking off Stafford, so it’s not unreasonable they hold the Rams under 30 points and give themselves a great shot at pulling off the upset late in the game.

The spread is large for a road team this week, the Falcons don’t really have anything to play for, but I think if there’s a crazy Monday night shootout here, it’s going to be in a game between MVP-chasing Stafford and Captain Kirk. And if I had a Stafford MVP ticket, I’d be very nervous about what might happen if he does underperform and lose this game in a national spotlight going into Week 18 where the Rams will be a third-place afterthought in the NFC West.

Still a playoff team, but they are not peaking right now, and it’s actually a shock they are such Super Bowl favorites (+450 at FanDuel; Seattle is next closest at +650). I’d fade the Rams for the Super Bowl right now, and I think Monday night will continue to show you why they’re not the choice for that right now at these odds.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – 4 Legs (+575 at BetRivers)

7. NFL Touchdown Scorer Parlay

Finally, we have a 4-leg parlay of touchdown scorers taken from just two games: Cardinals vs. Bengals, Eagles vs. Bills.

Trey McBride vs. Bengals: A battle of two terrible defenses, look for Jacoby Brissett to get back to lighting it up and finding his best weapon for another touchdown.
Ja’Marr Chase vs. Cardinals: Joe Burrow is likely to throw multiple touchdowns again in this one, and Chase is a great play against a bad Arizona pass defense.
Saquon Barkley vs. Bills: Everyone knows Buffalo’s worst aspect is its run defense, and the Eagles have started to look more competent in that area with Saquon Barkley. The Tush Push hasn’t been working that well this year, so I think Barkley breaks one long enough to get another score himself instead of adding to Jalen Hurts’ total.
Josh Allen vs. Eagles: After no touchdown passes or runs last week in Cleveland, look for Josh Allen to get at least one of each here, and the Eagles are certainly a defense he’ll try to hit with his own version of the Tush Push instead of trying to pass at the goal line.

Scott’s NFL Pick: 4-Leg Parlay (+1549 at FanDuel)

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