Arsenal did not so much creep to the top of the table this season as slam the door behind them and twist the key. Twelve games in, they are first, they have the best defence, they have one solitary league defeat and they have turned Sunday afternoons into a kind of controlled suffocation exercise for whoever is unlucky enough to be in front of them.
Chelsea are six points back, Manchester City a touch further away, Liverpool drifting in mid table. The usual script, the one where everyone shrugs and says it is early days, does not quite fit when the league leaders are this miserly at the back and this calm with a lead.
So the question lands a little differently now. It is not just whether anyone can catch Arsenal. It is whether anyone can do it over 38 games while chasing a side that finally looks like it has learned every brutal lesson the last three years have thrown at it.
Arsenal are DANGEROUS
The question hits different this time
Arsenal sit on 29 points from 12 matches, a record of nine wins, two draws and one defeat, with a goal difference of plus 18 and only six goals conceded. Chelsea are second, on 23 points, City third on 22. That is not an unassailable gap, but it is a proper one this early.
If you have watched the last few versions of this club, that sentence is both familiar and slightly unnerving. Arsenal were top for long stretches in 2022-23 and again in the years that followed, only to be worn down by City. They became experts in finishing second.
The pattern this time, though, feels less volatile. They are not relying on wild wins every week, or a winger playing like a cheat code from August to March. The numbers are heavy: best defensive record in the division, among the top attacks by expected goals, and a run of clean sheets across league and cups that looks more like something from a black and white era than from 2025.
Is this gonna be Arsenal’s year? ⚽🤔🏆 pic.twitter.com/vo4wC2kE0N
— 365Scores (@365Scores) November 23, 2025
The defence that turned into a cheat code
If you strip this Arsenal down to one defining feature, it is the defence. It is not flashy. There are no flying tackles for the cameras every five minutes. It is just relentlessly, almost irritatingly competent. They’ve conceded just six Premier League goals this season.
William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhães are now in full long term partnership territory. They know where the other will step before the ball is even played. When one has been missing, Cristhian Mosquera or Piero Hincapié has dropped in and the whole thing has not fallen apart, which would not have been the case two years ago. Full backs Riccardo Calafiori and Jurriën Timber step inside, push on, sit off, all without the structure losing its shape.
Behind them, David Raya turns matches into exercises in boredom for opposition forwards. High claims, simple passes, sensible positioning. He is not racking up 12 saves a game because Arsenal rarely allow that volume of shots in the first place.
In practical terms, that means Arsenal do not have to play perfectly in attack to win. One smart move, one set piece routine, and the door usually stays closed at the other end. In a title race, that is close to a super power.
Europe as the mirror
The Champions League is supposed to be where English title hopes go to get overwhelmed. Travel, rotation, different styles, some overconfident referee from another federation, all of that. Yet Arsenal haven’t been phased.
Five games, five wins, including that 3-1 dismantling of Bayern Munich that ended the German champions long unbeaten run and shoved Arsenal to the top of the league phase standings. They have made Atlético Madrid look pedestrian, handled Slavia Prague away with minimum fuss, and rotated smartly without losing their identity.
If you can bully Bayern in the second half, a tricky away game at Fulham or Burnley suddenly feels a little less daunting.
What a night for the Gunners! Arsenal crush Bayern Munich 3-1 to stay unbeaten and claim first place in the league phase with a flawless 15 points from 5 matches. The only team with a full mark—this is what dreams are made of! ❤️🔥 pic.twitter.com/yHz1Ho1mq3
— 365Scores (@365Scores) November 26, 2025
The chasing pack: contenders or just names
Manchester City remain the obvious threat. They have Erling Haaland, they have Pep Guardiola, they have a squad that treats 10 game winning streaks as a personality trait. Even in a season where results have been patchier, it would be ridiculous to write them off before December.
But there are cracks that have not always been there. City have already lost multiple league games, looked oddly flat in a couple of others, and taken some heavy hits in Europe. The churn of key players, the aging core, the departure of long serving figures like Kevin De Bruyne, all of that quietly erodes the inevitability factor. They can still go on a run.
Chelsea are the team closest in the table right now, six points back. Enzo Maresca has done impressive early work turning a chaotic squad into something with clear patterns and a bit of swagger. Big wins, like the recent demolition of Barcelona in the Champions League, show the ceiling is high.
Liverpool, somehow, are the defending champions and yet feel further away from a repeat than either of those two. A hideous run of results, the emotional shock of Diogo Jota’s death and the pressure on Arne Slot have dragged them out of the race for now.
The real threats: injuries, fatigue, psychology
If someone is going to catch Arsenal, the likeliest culprit is Arsenal themselves. That is usually how these things work.
The first obvious hazard is injuries. Arteta has built more depth than before, with proper alternatives in most positions, but there are still players who feel irreplaceable. Lose Saka and Ødegaard together for two months and the attack suddenly looks a lot less multi dimensional. Take away both first choice centre backs and even this defence will start to creak a bit.
Then there is the calendar. Arsenal are deep in the Champions League, still alive in both domestic cups, and heavily represented at international level. There are a lot of high intensity minutes in those legs already, and it is not even Christmas.
Finally, there is the weight of history. This club has been here before in slightly different outfits: fun young Wenger sides that got stage fright, Emery’s brief surge, Arteta’s earlier incarnations that seemed to tighten just when City were speeding up. You cannot airbrush those scars out of the dressing room.
So, can anyone actually catch them?
Short version: yes, in the same technical sense that Wolves could theoretically win the Champions League. Football is weird, injuries happen, refereeing decisions go wild, someone somewhere strings 12 wins together. But truthfully, as much as it pains this Manchester United fan to write, it will take something pretty dramatic.
FAQs
Who are the main contenders to catch Arsenal?
Manchester City remain the primary threat, given their squad quality and habit of going on long winning runs after Christmas. Chelsea are the other semi believable challenger, six points back with a coach who has them trending upwards. Liverpool look more like potential spoilers of others seasons than favourites for the title right now.
How big is Arsenal’s lead at the moment?
After 12 games, Arsenal have 29 points with a record of 9 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, and a goal difference of plus 18. Chelsea are second on 23 points, Manchester City third on 22, with the rest already trailing by double figures in some cases.
What has changed most about Arsenal compared with previous seasons?
Their control without the ball. The defence is more settled, the structure behind attacks is tighter and the counter press is cleaner. They are also less reliant on one or two stars for goals, with Gyökeres, Eze, Saka, Martinelli and Ødegaard all contributing to a more varied attack.
Are the models and bookmakers really that high on Arsenal?
Yes. Most major bookmakers have Arsenal as clear odds on favourites for the title, and at least one well known data model puts their chances at around three quarters, with City a distant second. Those numbers can change with a bad month, but right now they underline how strong Arsenal’s position is.
What could derail Arsenal’s title bid from here?
A cluster of injuries in key positions, accumulated fatigue from juggling deep runs in multiple competitions, or an old fashioned crisis of confidence in spring. If two of those three hit at once, the gap to City or Chelsea could shrink very quickly. Without that sort of storm, though, this looks and feels like Arsenal’s title to lose.
By Nicky Helfgott – NickyHelfgott1 on X (Twitter)
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