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2026 NFL Draft Preview: How High Should You Draft Safety Caleb Downs in Today’s NFL?

Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar16/04/2026 - 03:17 pm
2026 NFL Draft - Safety (Caleb Downs)

We are nearly done with the defensive side of the ball in our 2026 NFL Draft previews. We tackled the defensive linemen and linebackers in the front seven last week. Now we’re looking at safety, led by Ohio State’s Caleb Downs. But the safety class is considered one of the strongest and deepest positions in the 2026 draft.

That would be great if it plays out that way, because we’ve been longing for some standout safety play for some time in the NFL. If you were a fan in the 2000s or 2010s, you were spoiled by all the greats at safety:

  • Ed Reed
  • Troy Polamalu
  • Brian Dawkins
  • Rodney Harrison
  • Earl Thomas
  • John Lynch
  • Bob Sanders
  • Eric Berry
  • Kam Chancellor
  • Harrison Smith

If you look at safeties in the 2020s, Kyle Hamilton (Ravens) has probably been the best representation of an elite player, but even he is a far cry from the days of Ed Reed in Baltimore. Reed wouldn’t drop a game-sealing pick against Jameis Winston. He’d house it.

Maybe it’s the rule changes in the NFL for hits on defenseless receivers that have neutered the position or led to its better players getting injured more frequently in the cases of Brian Branch (Lions) and Derwin James (Chargers).

Maybe the two-high safety looks that went up after Super Bowl 55 have led to fewer shots being taken deep and challenging those safeties in coverage, decreasing their interceptions.

While it’s arguably always been an underappreciated position when you look at draft capital used on rookies and money spent on free-agent contracts, a great safety can really put your defense over the top.

Seattle coach Mike Macdonald is the hottest thing in the NFL on the defensive side of the ball right now, and he certainly favors the safety in his defenses. He mentored Hamilton in Baltimore (2022-23), then he made 2025 rookie safety Nick Emmanwori a key part of his defense, including using him on five blitzes in Super Bowl 60 against Drake Maye.

It would be great if this draft class can produce an elite safety or two as there are three with a first-round grade, including one of the highest-rated prospects in this class in Caleb Downs. But people will continue to discount using high picks on this position even when it can be impactful as someone who can cover wideouts, lock up with tight ends, be a leading tackler, and even rush the passer if you’re willing.

Make safeties great again. Let’s start it with this class.

Using the prospect rankings from NFL Mock Draft Database, we are going to look at the top four safeties who should go by Night 2 of the draft. We’ll look at how their skills might translate to the NFL, and which team would be the best landing spot for them.

We are just doing the top four, but many analysts also like third-round prospects as potential starters, including Kamari Ramsey (USC), Bud Clark (TCU), Zakee Wheatley (Penn State), Jalon Kilgore (South Carolina), and Genesis Smith (Arizona).

That’s why it’s considered one of the deepest positions in an otherwise weak draft class.

2026 NFL Draft - Safety (Caleb Downs)

1. Caleb Downs (Ohio State) – No. 9 Overall Prospect

Safety Caleb Downs is the younger brother of Colts wideout Josh Downs, so football is in their DNA as their father Gary was a third-round pick at running back in the 1990s. But Caleb figures to be the most successful in the family as the top-rated safety and another key part of Ohio State’s dominant defense in college football the last few years.

Downs initially committed to Alabama for the 2023 season where he was dominant with 70 solo tackles, leading to winning SEC Freshman of the Year. But things got even better when he transferred to Ohio State in 2024 and became an All-American. In 2025, he won the Jim Thorpe Award (best defensive back) and the Lott Trophy. He had two interceptions in each of his three college seasons.

Downs has been compared to Arizona’s Budda Baker. He’s someone you’ll want to play in the box, close to the line, or use him as a big nickel corner. It’s not using him properly to have him drop back 25-30 yards into deep coverage. He needs to be around the action, and he’s great at limiting YAC on quick throws, a staple in today’s NFL.

Best Fit – Washington Commanders (No. 7 Pick)

This one should be interesting. Again, we know Fernando Mendoza is going No. 1 to the Raiders. You probably won’t see the Jets (No. 2) or Cardinals (No. 3) go this high for a safety, and the same can be said for the Titans (No. 4), who need a lot of help.

That’s why the draft board likely starts at No. 5 for Caleb Downs, and you can’t deny John Harbaugh would probably love a safety to start his stint with the New York Giants. This is someone who coached Ed Reed and Kyle Hamilton at Baltimore. Downs is a different type of safety, but he’s the best one they can take here, and arguably the best value at No. 5 in this particular class. I could see this happening next week.

The Browns (No. 6) are another team with too many core needs to go safety, and defense isn’t their issue anyway. The team that’s probably been linked most to Downs is Washington at No. 7. Dan Quinn is a defensive coach in need of some defensive cornerstones there to help Jayden Daniels and the offense. They signed Nick Cross from the Colts at strong safety but could certainly upgrade there.

Brandon Staley (DC) and the Saints are probably okay with Justin Reid at safety from the Chiefs. Not a big need right now. Speaking of the Chiefs, what do they do with that No. 9 pick they hope they never have again in the Patrick Mahomes era? People are saying wide receiver, but they already have issues with trying to make Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy work together. Who in this draft would really make them better in 2026?

Caleb Downs of Ohio State 365scores players details
(Via 365Scores)

That’s why I think a safety like Downs could absolutely be a justified and great pick for the Chiefs at No. 9. Their current depth chart shows Chamarri Conner still starting at strong safety, which is a huge liability in pass coverage and he’s nothing special against the run. They need to do better, and it’s hard to do any better in this draft at No. 9 than Downs.

If the Chiefs pass, then the Bengals (No. 10), Dolphins (No. 11), and Cowboys (No. 12) could all be in play for Downs. It’s absurd if he’s still on the board after No. 12 with the holes Dallas still has on defense.

I ended up with Washington as the best pick as you could send him after the Eagles’ running game and Jalen Hurts, have him smack CeeDee Lamb on a short pass, or keep an eye on Jaxson Dart’s legs for the Giants. I still think the Chiefs would probably be the best overall pick for him, but I’m not sure the NFC East even lets him get there whether it’s the Giants at No. 5 or the Commanders at No. 7.

That’s why Downs’ draft range should be 5-12. He’s the Nick Emmanwori of this class, if not a deluxe version with success in two major college football programs.

2. Dillon Thieneman (Oregon) – No. 18 Overall Prospect

For many people, Dillon Thieneman is the No. 2 safety in this class behind Caleb Downs. He started his college career at Purdue where he had 210 total tackles in two years. He also had six interceptions as a freshman. He joined Oregon for the 2025 season where he had similar tackle numbers for a better team and added two more picks.

Versatility is a big argument for Thieneman. There’s a debate with Caleb Downs on whether he’s an in-the-box safety or something more. But with Thieneman, many believe he can play any type of safety in today’s NFL.

He’s rangy enough to play free safety and defend the deep passes as he has good IQ on diagnosing plays and not falling for play-action. He’s a willing and productive tackler with good size for the NFL (6’0”, 201 pounds), so he can play in the box. Then he’s adequate enough in all areas to play a hybrid position (“big nickel”) that’s becoming more popular and in high demand for NFL teams that want versatility in the secondary.

Best Fit – Minnesota Vikings (No. 18 Pick)

Not to sound like the Elvis movie with Austin Butler, but there’s something else you may have noticed about Thieneman from his videos. He’s white. Not that there’s anything wrong with that in 2026, especially for a safety.

But let’s just say the Minnesota Vikings could use that No. 18 pick on Thieneman (sounds a little like Thielen…) and the optics won’t change much from Vikings fans watching 14 seasons of Smith at safety.

Dillon Thieneman of Oregon 365Scores player deatils
(Via 365Scores)

It fits a need and it’s the type of versatile player that a coordinator like Brian Flores would absolutely love to move around as an ultimate chess piece. Without loving the other options in this draft for Minnesota, I really like this match.

Oh, and he ran a 4.37 second 40-yard dash, so no need to worry about his elite athleticism. “That boy nice.” Hopefully the Jets (No. 16) don’t take him first, because I think Brian Flores would get more out of him than Aaron Glenn would.

3. Emmanuel McNeil-Warren (Toledo) – No. 23 Overall Prospect

It’s rare to have a draft with three first-round safeties, though we could see it this year. How does that happen, especially when the third player is a safety from Toledo? Well, the 2026 draft isn’t a strong one with many teams saying they have a limited number of first-round grades this year.

But in the case of Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, he’s experienced with over 200 tackles, 5 interceptions, and nine forced fumbles in his career. He’s also huge for his position (6’3” with long arms). That can be a menacing figure coming at you.

Best Fit – Cleveland Browns (No. 24 Pick)

With our second safety going at No. 18, we are well into the bottom half of the first round. The Cowboys (No. 20) could be a landing spot for a safety, though they’ll likely be more interested in the trenches for that pick.

The Steelers (No. 21) are now in the Mike McCarthy era, though the GM is still Omar Khan, who knows this team has had Troy Polamalu and Minkah Fitzpatrick in the past. But with the Steelers playing Jalen Ramsey in a hybrid role at safety, they don’t really need to splurge like this for McNeil-Warren.

The Chargers (No. 22) have their star in the secondary in Derwin James already. The Eagles used a second-round pick last year on safety Andrew Mukuba, though this could be a spot where they go for the smaller school prospect with freakish size and good production.

But I feel like the Browns are the pick, taking an Ohio school kid with great size and he could be a young piece at safety to help Myles Garrett on the back end.

4. A.J. Haulcy (LSU) – No. 59 Overall Prospect

A step down from the top three safeties, A.J. Haulcy is well traveled. He started with New Mexico in 2022, then he transferred to Houston for 2023-24, then he wrapped things up last year at LSU where he had 88 tackles and 3 more interceptions to give him 10 picks in his career.

You’re talking about a 4-year starter with success at three different schools. He’s only 5’11”, which will look small compared to Emmanuel McNeil-Warren (almost 6’4”), but that’s not abnormal for safety. He doesn’t have elite speed, but he can excel in zone coverage and he knows how to tackle.

Best Fit – San Francisco 49ers (No. 58 Pick)

Once you get into the late second round, Haulcy becomes one of the best values on the board. Some of the teams we mentioned before who could be thinking about a safety are options, including the Steelers (No. 53) and Eagles (No. 54).

If he lasts to the third round, he could be a great value for the Eagles (No. 68) or Browns (No. 70). Maybe even the Commanders (No. 71) or Bengals (No. 72) if they don’t take Caleb Downs in the top 10.

But I’m going with the 49ers and the No. 58 pick in the second round. We know the 49ers were ravaged by injuries last year to many of their top players, but when you look at the current depth chart, safety and the secondary in general just doesn’t impress much, especially if you want to be a Super Bowl contender in the same division as the Seahawks and Rams.

With Raheem Morris coming over to coach the defense for Kyle Shanahan, he’d appreciate a player like Haulcy for his ability to quickly learn new systems and show good instincts and tackling form.

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Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar16/04/2026 - 03:17 pm