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2026 NFL Schedule Analysis: The NFL Hopes the Rams and Seahawks Are Good Boys for Christmas

Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar15/05/2026 - 12:07 pm

Only the NFL can spend days slowly leaking pieces of the 2026 schedule and make it a big TV event as it did on Thursday night. I did not watch anything on TV, but I did dig through the full schedule and have some thoughts about what we’ll see this year, especially in regards to the Super Bowl favorites in the Rams and Seahawks.

If the title is any indication, I think the NFL is once again playing with fire in how it scheduled arguably the two biggest division games of the year. After a historic season where seven new division winners happened and many of the preseason favorites flopped, the biggest story in 2026 is seeing just how much of that change is going to last, and how many divisions are going to revert to their old norms this season.

Bah Humbug: We Won’t See Rams vs. Seahawks Until Christmas

2026 NFL Schedule Analysis

I do not view the 2026 NFL season through a lens of Rams vs. Seahawks as if the other 30 teams don’t matter. But the Seahawks are the defending champs and tied for the second-best Super Bowl 61 odds (+1000 at FanDuel). The Rams remain the preseason favorite with +700 odds.

These two teams are very important, and if you asked what was the real breaking point of the 2025 regular season that set us on a path towards the Seahawks winning Super Bowl 60, it was the Game of the Year in Week 16 when the Seahawks rallied in the fourth quarter to force overtime (after the flukiest 2-point conversion in NFL history) where we saw the only game ever where both teams scored a touchdown in overtime and one won on a walk-off 2PC.

That was a magical moment on a Thursday night in Week 16, so I can understand why the league would try to recreate that in Week 16 this season on a Friday that is Christmas Day with a night game. But last year, we saw the Rams and Seahawks meet in Week 11 first.

This year, we won’t see them meet until Christmas, then the rematch is in Week 18 in Los Angeles for the season finale. This is so ballsy by the NFL, because it’s the same thing they tried a year ago in the NFC with the Eagles and Commanders, who were coming off a 2024 NFC Championship Game clash, and it 100% backfired badly.

The Eagles and Commanders were also given Week 16 and Week 18 matchups. But after a terrible, injury-plagued season for Jayden Daniels and the Commanders, you were stuck watching Marcus Mariota and Josh Johnson split the quarterback duties on a Saturday. Two weeks later, the Eagles didn’t try to improve their seed and rested Jalen Hurts and other starters, and Tanner McKee took the loss to Josh Johnson.  Yippee.

Those are really the two nightmare scenarios for doing this, and both played out last year. You get one team who is rattled by injuries and is having a terrible, irrelevant season. The other sees it’s Week 18 and figures we’re playing next week either way, so let’s rest some guys here. That sucks for the fans.

For the Seahawks and Rams, you never know what could happen. We might expect Sam Darnold vs. Matthew Stafford to have a shootout like they did in Week 16 and the NFC title game, but we could be watching rookie Ty Simpson throwing to Jordan Whittington because Stafford’s back gave out, Davante Adams’ hamstring tore, and Puka Nacua went insane on a looksmaxxing podcast.

Tightly scheduling both division games between two prime Super Bowl contenders this late in the year (or really any time) is a lousy idea because any injury of note could easily keep that player out for both games. To say nothing of the potential that one or both of these teams aren’t in super form by the time the game gets here.

So, I can’t be excited about the way they scheduled these games, because now we have to hope the Seahawks and Rams can stay healthy and relevant for Christmas Day. With how fast things change in this league, good luck with that. Also, no one has more prime-time games than the Rams (7) and the Seahawks are right behind with six along with the Chiefs, Bills, and Packers.

How About the Patriots’ Schedule This Year?

We told you last summer that the Patriots’ schedule was a huge reason to think they could improve under Mike Vrabel in 2025. Little did we know it’d be one of the easiest schedules in history, or that the Patriots would take advantage of it for a 14-3 season and an appearance in the Super Bowl.

Today, the Patriots are a punchline thanks to the tabloid story about coach Mike Vrabel’s alleged affair with NFL reporter Dianna Russini while both are married to other people. If you thought any NFL team would poke fun in their social media schedule release post at the story, you should have counted on the Chargers to do so, because they most certainly did with a message from the New York Post as a subtle nod to the offseason story that won’t go away.

But while the Patriots were just 1-2 in the 2025 regular season against winning teams, they may match or exceed that total number of games by October 4 this year. The Patriots’ first four 2026 games are against the Seahawks, Steelers, Jaguars, and Bills – all playoff teams from last year. They also face the Bears in Chicago in Week 7, host the Packers in Week 9, at Detroit in Week 10, at the Chargers in Week 12, and are in Kansas City for MNF in Week 15.

Oh, they’ll also host Denver in Week 17 in a rematch of the 2025 AFC Championship Game, or the game that was ruined by Bo Nix’s injury. That could actually turn into the Fraud Bowl this year if the Patriots or Broncos (or both) decline after unexpectedly winning so many games last year and often in close fashion.

Just with opening night alone in Seattle, the Patriots could be in for a rude awakening early and often this year as they attempt to put last year (or the last 6+ years in Vrabel’s case) behind them for 2026.

No Prime-Time Games for You

Even with the NFL getting rid of the dreaded Monday Night doubleheader this year, there are still a ton of prime-time games on the schedule. Alas, the league has shut out five teams entirely from having any prime-time games in 2026.

Tennessee Titans: This is the second year in a row the Titans won’t have one, so I guess 2025 No. 1 pick Cam Ward doesn’t exist to a large number of the population. I thought they’d get at least one AFC South game in prime time but no cigar. Maybe if they have a breakout season under Robert Saleh they’ll get there through flex scheduling, but for now, we’ll just have to enjoy the team’s schedule release post.

Miami Dolphins and Arizona Cardinals: Well, it’s not like Tua Tagovailoa and Kyler Murray were good for ratings. But with each piece of info that drops on these teams, who have some of the hardest schedules this year, the more I think they’ll be battling it out for that No. 1 pick in the 2027 draft. The Dolphins don’t have any receivers for Malik Willis, and the Cardinals don’t exactly have a quarterback yet.

New York Jets: Yeah, they’re right up there in the Arch Manning sweepstakes. I actually have to commend the league for sparing us another Patriots vs. Jets slaughter in prime time.

Las Vegas Raiders: A little surprised here as I actually thought they could have been an interesting team for Patrick Mahomes to make his potential Week 1 return against. But they’ll actually see him in Week 18, so maybe by then, we’ll see rookie quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who is expected to sit behind veteran Kirk Cousins to start the year. I give Cousins 4-6 games tops before we see Mendoza starting in October.

Does the NFL Know More About Aaron Rodgers’ Future Than the Steelers Do?

While the Pittsburgh Steelers usually get a good number of prime-time and national games, things could look different this year with coach Mike McCarthy taking over for Mike Tomlin after 19 years.

But with the Steelers scheduled for four prime-time games, the first NFL game in Paris, and a Black Friday game against Denver, they must feel like Aaron Rodgers is going to return for another season.

If not, then we stand to watch some bad football as the team doesn’t currently have a starter. Even if Rodgers returns, his body will have to hold up to another year of abuse, and that schedule late in the year when it gets even tougher on an old quarterback is not kind with games against the Texans and Broncos.

The Steelers also play the Jaguars on MNF in Week 14, and that’s a week after Rodgers has to survive that Houston pass rush that we thought possibly ended his career in the playoffs. Without any confirmation yet on his return, and even with the shaky results he could produce if he does come back, this feels like another big gamble by the league on a team that could be ready to finally have a losing season and maybe get a draft pick that can change their long-term fortunes in 2027.

Are We There Yet? How Many Is Too Many International Games?

The NFL has its heart (and wallet) set on more international games to help further increase exposure around the globe. The days of a few games in London are long gone as there will be nine international games this season, including the first in Paris, France between the Steelers and Saints. I guess Ireland didn’t rate enough with the Steelers vs. Carson Wentz (Vikings) last year to go again this year.

There will also be a game in Melbourne, Australia to start the season between the 49ers and Rams, and they’ll have games in Rio de Janeiro, London, Madrid, Munich, and Mexico City.

Rams vs. 49ers (Australia) and Ravens vs. Cowboys (Brazil) could be cool early in the season, but I have to agree with J.J. Watt that the league is pushing too many of these games, which can cause havoc in how to schedule bye weeks and give the teams proper time to rest and travel during the season.

Still, we’ll be watching every one of them.

Schedule Impact on 2026 MVP Race

One of the most useful ways to view the NFL schedule these days is the impact it could have on the MVP award as oddsmakers are putting a lot of weight anymore on what happens in those prime-time games late in the season.

I was all over this during the 2025 season in December, seeing a prime opportunity for Matthew Stafford to lose ground as the favorite in Week 16 when he played in Seattle on Thursday night, then I correctly predicted Drake Maye would lead his first fourth-quarter comeback and his first 300-yard game against the Ravens on Sunday Night Football. Both things happened, and many were trying to give the MVP to Maye soon after.

Then Stafford had his roughest game in Atlanta in an upset loss on a Monday night, and that almost turned the tide completely towards Maye, who shredded the lowly Jets in a Sunday afternoon game.

Stafford still won MVP in the end, but the odds fluctuated greatly towards the end because of what happened in prime time.

When I look at the 2026 NFL MVP odds and the games currently scheduled for those final weeks in prime time or a national window, here are the ones that could stand out as decisive:

  • Week 15 Patriots at Chiefs (MNF): Could have MVP implications (among other things) for Drake Maye and Patrick Mahomes.
  • Week 16 Bills at Broncos (Christmas Afternoon): A chance for Josh Allen to get some playoff revenge in Denver.
  • Week 17 Ravens at Bengals (TNF): Big if it’s for the AFC North between Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow.

This is not as backloaded as the previous few seasons, but Buffalo stands out late in the year. You know someone (Dan Orlovsky) is always going to argue for Allen to win MVP, so it seems pretty important that Buffalo is in prime time three weeks in a row in Weeks 14-16, playing at Green Bay on SNF, a Saturday night game in Week 15 against Chicago, and Christmas afternoon in Denver before finishing with the Dolphins and Jets.

Throw in a home game on Thanksgiving night against Mahomes and the Chiefs, and even if the Bills have a slow start with Joe Brady taking over as the head coach, the schedule push is right there for Allen at the end of the year.

Buffalo also apparently has one of the best net rest advantages in this year’s schedule.

As for Patrick Mahomes, he’s tied with Justin Herbert (+1000) for the fifth-best MVP odds this year. Assuming he can be ready for Week 1 after tearing his ACL in December, the schedule starts out rather nicely for him to get going:

  • Week 1 at home against Denver in prime time could be a tone setter for the whole 2026 AFC West race with the Chiefs trying to claw back their divisional superiority they lost in 2025.
  • Week 2 is against the Colts, who may not have Daniel Jones ready yet.
  • Weeks 3-4 are in Miami and Vegas against teams expected to be very bad, then it’s an early Week 5 bye.

Even if the worst-case scenario happened and Mahomes couldn’t return until Week 6, that’s a schedule that Andy Reid could get a 2-2 o 3-1 start out of with a backup quarterback.

Things will pick up after the bye with the Chargers, Seahawks, and a rematch in Denver, but if Mahomes and the Chiefs are going to get back on top of the AFC, they’ll win their share of games against the good teams like they used to.

With the schedule now out, we basically wait for training camps to open in July. Until then, we’ll have some periodic pieces on roster building, odds for the other NFL awards, and before you know it, full 2026 team season previews will start rolling out.

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Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar15/05/2026 - 12:07 pm