With free agency essentially in the books, that means it’s time for the 2026 NFL Draft previews, starting with the quarterback position where Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza is a heavy favorite to go No. 1 in the draft to the Las Vegas Raiders after leading the Indiana Hoosiers to an undefeated season.
But if you thought the 2025 draft was light on the quarterback position after the alleged No. 2 prospect, Shedeur Sanders, fell to the Browns in the fifth round, then 2026 looks even lighter as Mendoza could end up being the only first-round signal caller. At least 2025 had Jaxson Dart go to the Giants at No. 25.
One reason this 2026 quarterback class looks underwhelming is that Arch Manning decided to return to Texas instead of declaring early for the NFL. So, maybe he’ll be part of a stronger group for 2027, but if you need a quarterback right now as some teams like the Cardinals and Jets do, then you might be out of luck in this draft.
What else happened? It was a disappointing 2025 college football season for some of the quarterbacks expected to raise their NFL stock such as Clemson’s Cade Klubnik, and it’s not like Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia is getting any taller.
Alas, we had to find some other quarterbacks to talk about for this year. Using the prospect rankings from NFL Mock Draft Database, we are going to look at the top five quarterbacks this year, how their skills might translate to the NFL, and which team would be the best landing spot for them.
Table of Contents
1. Fernando Mendoza (Indiana) – No. 1 Overall Prospect
Everyone has a take on Fernando Mendoza, and I’m fond of the one that basically says he’s a no-brainer No. 1 overall pick in what’s being viewed as a weak 2026 draft class, but he probably wouldn’t get No. 1 in most drafts in history. That’s fair.
But the Heisman Trophy winner kind of came out of nowhere this past season after he transferred from Cal to Indiana and led the Hoosiers to an unthinkable 16-0 championship season. He took down Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game, and that sealed his Heisman Trophy.
In 16 games, Mendoza finished 2025 with 72.0% completions, 220.9 passing yards per game, 9.3 yards per attempt, 41 touchdown passes, 6 interceptions, and he rushed for 276 yards and 7 touchdowns, including this memorable call on fourth down against the Hurricanes in the championship game:
Almost as famous as that touchdown run was Mendoza’s post-game interview after dethroning Ohio State’s No. 1 defense where he went through a variety of emotions and facial expressions, captivating a nation that was largely getting introduced to him with this video:
Then he did it again after winning the natty:
Yeah, there is a little Tim Tebow cult of personality at play with Mendoza here that may rub some the wrong way. But if you look at this interview he did when he was 13 years old, you instantly recognize this kid didn’t just go to Indiana and adopt a character to play. This is just who he is and who he’s going to be, and his teammates seem to love it and play hard for him.
Now, he threw 11 more touchdowns than he had in his two seasons at Cal combined, so you wonder how much of this was natural progression vs. system inflation (RPOs) with much better coaching around him. But from a physical standpoint, Mendoza has that prototypical size (6’5”) and frame with enough arm strength and mobility to justify his draft position this year.
Something I liked about Mendoza in 2025 is that in games where he either made a mistake or had to win the game late, he came through each time against Iowa, Oregon, and Penn State.
In a draft with no other clear quarterback choice in the first round, and without any Reggie White/Lawrence Taylor/Jerry Rice type of prospects sitting out there, I see why the hype for Mendoza going No. 1 is there.
It was all so unthinkable a year ago, but here we are one undefeated Heisman Trophy and championship season later with the No. 1 pick in the draft likely going to a quarterback for the Hoosiers.
Best Fit – Las Vegas Raiders (No. 1 Pick)
The sportsbooks are already giving Mendoza -20000 odds to go No. 1, presumably to the Raiders, in this draft, so that feels like it’s close to a done deal with four weeks to go.
But why wouldn’t you just go for it if you’re the Raiders? They traded Geno Smith to the Jets after accomplishing the mission of getting the No. 1 pick. The Raiders have Aidan O’Connell on their roster, so yeah, I’d say they need a quarterback.
Plus, you give new coach Klint Kubiak someone to build around from Day 1 in a division with Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, and Bo Nix. Kubiak had less than six months in Seattle to prepare an offense that ended up winning the Super Bowl in his first year after the team signed Sam Darnold last March, and he had to get Jaxon Smith-Njigba up to par after the team traded D.K. Metcalf to Pittsburgh. He got that done in one season.
We know from Indiana that Mendoza can do as he’s told and improve if he’s getting good coaching. If Kubiak is the right hire, then he should make something out of Mendoza with those elements of the Shanahan/Kubiak offense that are usually so successful in inflating quarterback’s statistics. That means bootlegs to use his mobility, play-action passes to set up big plays, and hopefully an improved running game in Vegas.
They have Ashton Jeanty at running back and Brock Bowers at tight end. The wide receivers have some work to do, but those are elite prospects at running back and tight end for Kubiak and Mendoza to play with this year.
Going to a division (and conference, really) with so many established quarterbacks is a tough draw for sure. But if Mendoza is ever going to live up to the hype that comes with the No. 1 overall pick, he’ll have his moments.
If the Raiders are ever going to turn things around with no playoff wins since the 2002 AFC Championship Game, then it has to be this pick that marks the turning point.
Besides, after JaMarcus Russell set the bar so low for No. 1 overall picks by the Raiders in 2007, Mendoza can’t possibly be worse than that. But like Tim Tebow, it’s going to be difficult for Mendoza to surpass the heights of his college career in the pros. The 2025 Hoosiers (100-to-1 odds before the season) are up there with the 1999 Rams as far as improbable champions go.
Guess we’ll find out how much of that was coach Curt Cignetti (Google him; he wins) being a genius, and how much was Mendoza being a special quarterback prospect just in need of the right environment.
Sin City doesn’t seem like the greatest personality fit for Mendoza, who comes off as someone who didn’t see an R-rated movie until college. But showing up to work in a Kubiak offense with Tom Brady a minority owner? Ain’t that a kick in the head?
If this is just the beginning
My life is gonna be beautiful
2. Ty Simpson (Alabama) – No. 35 Overall Prospect
Every NFL draft needs a polarizing quarterback prospect and that player for 2026 is Alabama’s Ty Simpson. Some people think he’s worth a high-first round pick (top 12), and some wouldn’t touch him anywhere close to the first round.
Yes, that’s ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky starting the bandwagon for Simpson as QB1 over Mendoza, and his reasoning sure sounds similar to one of his MVP arguments he’s used the last few years. The problem is I’m not sure his NFL MVP arguments are a valid way to dictate who should be the first quarterback drafted into the league.
Orlovsky is referring to the lack of running game the Crimson Tide had in 2025 as none of their top backs averaged 4.0 yards per carry, which is quite poor in the SEC in 2025. They only averaged 104.1 yards per game and 3.4 yards per carry as a team. Simpson was routinely throwing for over 200 yards and multiple touchdowns until a late-season slump where he may not have been as healthy.
Here’s the skinny on Simpson. He’s a coach’s son (football in the blood) who joined Alabama in 2022 when Nick Saban was still the coach, but he didn’t become the starter until 2025, throwing 50 total passes in 2022-24.
As a first-year starter, he had a nice season with 28 touchdowns to 5 interceptions. Though, if you compare his numbers to some of the seasons his Alabama predecessors who were drafted into the NFL had, Simpson looks more pedestrian:
- 2025 Ty Simpson: 64.5% complete, 7.5 YPA, 237.8 passing yards per game, 28 TD, 5 INT
- 2024 Jalen Milroe: 64.3% complete, 8.9 YPA, 218.8 passing yards per game, 36 TD (20 rushing), 11 INT
- 2023 Jalen Milroe: 65.8% complete, 10.0 YPA, 218.0 passing yards per game, 35 TD (23 passing), 6 INT
- 2022 Bryce Young: 64.5% complete, 8.8 YPA, 277.3 passing yards per game, 32 TD, 5 INT
- 2021 Bryce Young: 66.9% complete, 8.9 YPA, 324.8 passing yards per game, 47 TD, 7 INT
- 2020 Mac Jones: 77.4% complete, 11.2 YPA, 346.2 passing yards per game, 41 TD, 4 INT
- 2019 Tua Tagovailoa: 71.4% complete, 11.3 YPA, 315.6 passing yards per game, 33 TD, 3 INT
At 6’1”, Simpson would be on the shorter side of starting NFL quarterbacks, but he’s still bigger than the likes of Kyler Murray and Bryce Young. His arm isn’t super strong but it’s good enough for the pros. He’s not very fast but he could be capable of running for the occasional first down or at least scrambling out of harm’s way.
But it does come back to only having that one year of starting experience, which is usually a huge negative for projecting NFL success, especially when Simpson already turns 24 in December. He’ll be an older rookie.
One of the many absurd things about the Chicago Bears drafting Mitch Trubisky with the No. 2 pick in the 2017 draft ahead of Patrick Mahomes (No. 10) and [redacted] (No. 12 for Houston) was that Trubisky only had one year as a starter at North Carolina. There was a huge gap in experience and production between him and the actual top quarterbacks that year, yet Chicago ignored that and pad for it.
The problem with inexperience is that the lack of reps has Simpson further behind in his progression as a quarterback than he’d have if he was a four-year starter and very experienced like Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix had going into the NFL in 2024.
That’s why you see some point to issues for Simpson that can be corrected with more experience like knowing when to get rid of the ball instead of taking a bad sack, or when you don’t need to leave a clean pocket.
But while Simpson didn’t throw many picks in 2025, I do see a lot of gunslinger in him, and that’s going to make him a double-edged sword in the NFL. Sometimes he’ll be rewarded with a big play, and sometimes it’s going to be a bad turnover. You just have to live with it and hope he understands how to gamble more responsibly as time goes on.
But Simpson is certainly a polarizing figure that someone is likely going to make their problem (or solution) before the end of Night 2 of the draft. I doubt he’ll fall as far as Shedeur Sanders did since no one is going to be worried about the media circus or getting calls from his dad, who is only coaching the UT Martin Skyhawks.
Best Fit – New York Jets (No. 33 or No. 44 Pick)
You could say there’s been buyer’s remorse around the league for taking Alabama quarterbacks who had flashier statistics than Simpson did. Tagovailoa, Mac Jones, and Bryce Young have combined for zero playoff wins. The Dolphins just cut Tua at a cost of almost $100M in dead cap, and Young hasn’t quite earned a hefty extension in Carolina just yet.
One could say Simpson is the weakest prospect from Alabama in some time, though he is a more traditional drop-back passer with consistent mechanics than Jalen Milroe, who went in the third round to Seattle last year.
But I think for a team that needs a quarterback like Pittsburgh, don’t make that Kenny Pickett-sized mistake with the No. 21 pick and reach for Simpson. It’s likely not going to be the difference maker you need for a long-term solution. You might as well give Will Howard (Ohio State) a shot to replace Aaron Rodgers if you’re going to go that route.
That’s why I think Simpson falls to the second round unless someone decides to come up and take him late like the Giants did when they got Jaxson Dart at No. 25 last year. Getting that fifth-year option on a quarterback contract is a nice bonus.
But the Jets hold the first pick of the second round at No. 33, and that could be a landing spot for Simpson. They also hold the No. 44 pick, and the only team that might be interested in Simpson between 33 and 44 is Arizona at No. 34 if they aren’t just trying to tank for Arch Manning in 2027 or whatever.
The Jets are giving Geno Smith another shot a decade after he last played for them. Why not maybe try to take a second shot at a Sam Darnold-type prospect in Simpson? Leave it up to the Jets to land a quarterback who has maybe a 2% chance of becoming an elite quarterback.
3. Garrett Nussmeier (LSU) – No. 80 Overall Prospect
You can see the drop in quality as the third-ranked quarterback prospect is just the No. 80 overall prospect in LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier. Let’s count the ways he is similar to Ty Simpson from Alabama:
- Both are the son of a coach as Doug Nussmeier, a former NFL quarterback himself, is the new offensive coordinator for the New Orleans Saints.
- Both are 6’1” pocket passers.
- Both are on the older side for rookies as Nussmeier will turn 25 a week before Super Bowl 61 in February.
- College career completion percentage: Nussmeier (64.0%), Simpson (63.9%).
- College career yards per pass attempt: Nussmeier (7.5), Simpson (7.5).
Might as well be the Spider-Man pointing meme. Nussmeier spent five seasons at LSU where he was 15-7 as a starter with 22 of those starts in 2024-25, so he’s at least got a little more than one season as the full-time starter under his belt.
While I described Simpson as a gunslinger who doesn’t turn it over a lot but takes questionable sacks, Nussmeier is a gunslinger who doesn’t take many sacks but had 12 picks in 2024 alone, so he’s not been as good at reading coverages and getting away with his gambles.
Best Fit – Dallas Cowboys (No. 92 Pick)
When you throw in his advanced age and some durability concerns, Nussmeier projects as a third-round pick in the best-case scenario for him. For that matter, maybe the best case would be No. 73 to New Orleans in Round 3 to reunite with his dad, who is the new OC. That could be weird though.
But the Steeler, who hold three picks in the third round (No. 76, No. 85, No. 99) would be a possibility if they absolutely felt the need to throw a dart at the quarterback position in this draft. Likewise, the Dolphins have three picks clustered together (No. 87, No. 90, and No. 94) if they wanted some insurance behind Malik Willis and Quinn Ewers.
But I like the pick for Dallas at No. 92 to get a backup behind Dak Prescott. Doug Nussmeier was on the Dallas coaching staff in 2018-22 (tight ends and quarterbacks), so there’s a family connection there and he could run a pro-style offense like the one used by Brian Schottenheimer.
4. Carson Beck (Miami) – No. 118 Overall Prospect
Few quarterbacks had a chance to raise their stock as much as Carson Beck in 2025 after he transferred from Georgia to the Miami Hurricanes. In a down year for college quarterbacks, Beck was the odds-on favorite for the Heisman Trophy until he had a disastrous night at home with four picks against Louisville in a 24-21 loss. He also struggled against SMU in an overtime loss.
But the Hurricanes still made it to the national championship game after Beck had a clutch game-winning drive against Ole Miss in the semifinal. But with a chance to take down Indiana at the end of the title game, Beck did exactly what his detractors expected him to do: Threw a brutal season-ending pick.
Beck threw 12 interceptions in each of his final two seasons. With that said, he’s still 37-6 as a starter and has prototypical size (almost 6’5”) for the position that NFL scouts like. He can succeed behind a great offensive line and a loaded team, but he’s unlikely ever going to be the difference maker to elevate a weak squad at the pro level.
Then there’s that inevitability in crunch time that you just can’t trust him to deliver. Also, like most of his classmates, he’s on the older side, turning 24 in November.
Best Fit – Jacksonville Jaguars (No. 124 Pick)
I think you keep Beck in the state of Florida and let him go back up Trevor Lawrence in a Liam Coen offense where he can get better without having to start anytime soon. He’s not starter material anytime soon in the NFL, so you give him time to develop.
5. Drew Allar (Penn State) – No. 119 Overall Prospect
Drew Allar was another quarterback who could have elevated his draft stock, but a season-ending ankle injury in October ended his final season at Penn State after just six games. He leaves there 26-9 as a starter with 61 touchdowns to 13 interceptions while also rushing for 732 yards and 12 touchdowns.
Athletically, Allar is up there with the best of these prospects this year in that he has a big arm and can move. But the mental processing isn’t as sharp, so you’re likely looking at a quarterback who would have a better highlight reel than many but struggle to make the routine plays with good consistency.
Best Fit – Green Bay Packers (No. 120 Pick)
Beyond those usual suspects in the fourth round (Jets, Cardinals, Dolphins, Steelers), I’ll give you an intriguing idea: Kansas City with the 109th pick. You have Patrick Mahomes coming off the ACL, and they lost Gardner Minshew as his backup. That could be a fun developmental project for Andy Reid and company with Eric Bieniemy back as the offensive coordinator.
But I’m actually going with a playoff team in the Packers, who hold the No. 120 pick, as a replacement for Malik Willis now that he’s gone to Miami. The Packers have been like a developmental quarterback farm for the rest of the NFL going back to the 90s, so maybe Matt LaFleur and company can shape up another talented prospect in Allar who is going to need a few years of seasoning before he’s ready to start games.
At least Allar is only 22 years old, a rarity in this quarterback class.
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