The Madrid derby always arrives with a bang, but this one feels like a drum roll that has been building for weeks. Real Madrid have started the league in ruthless mood, perfect through six and purring under Xabi Alonso.
Atlético Madrid, a little scuffed after a bumpy opening, just found a late-week jolt of adrenaline from a Julián Álvarez hat-trick. Add a packed Metropolitano on Saturday and you have a city’s equilibrium at stake.
The Madrid Derby will light up the city
The table that sets the tone
Real Madrid are top with six wins from six, 14 scored and three conceded. The early-season story has been efficiency without drama, a team that squeezes games until they pop. Atlético sit mid-table, nine points back. That gap sounds cavernous in September. In a derby, it is also tinder. A home win and the title race breathes different air. A home loss and the neighbourhood feels like it is already changing hands.
Alvaro Carreras has won possession 16 times last night vs Levante, the most for a Real Madrid player since Sergio Ramos against Sevilla in January 2019! ⚡️ pic.twitter.com/QlJDA1vBxf
— 365Scores (@365Scores) September 24, 2025
A derby with fresh faces, and a few old scars
The squads carrying the colours are familiar, yet they feel renewed. Real built last season’s Champions League crown on star quality and survival instincts, then doubled down. Kylian Mbappé is now the headliner and, crucially, he looks fully integrated rather than merely plugged in. Thibaut Courtois has his command back, Jude Bellingham floats between lines like a metronome with swagger (if he’s fit to play), and the wide menace of Vinícius Júnior still stretches the pitch in ways that make opponents nervous before kick-off.
Across town, Diego Simeone’s reset has been bold. The club moved for defensive pieces like Robin Le Normand, Dávid Hancko and Matteo Ruggeri to refit a back line that had grown creaky, added Johnny Cardoso and Thiago Almada to freshen midfield creativity, and handed Álex Baena a ten shirt. The headline, though, is Álvarez. He was bought for moments like Wednesday night’s comeback against Rayo Vallecano, the kind of night that turns sceptics into believers and lights a fuse before a derby.
The three-game 1-1 habit
Recent league derbies have repeatedly balanced on a pinhead. The last three La Liga meetings finished 1-1, each time with late drama, blocked lanes and just enough punches to leave both sides a little dazed but unbroken. The Champions League tie last season was just as tight, decided on penalties after a 2-2 aggregate.
Alonso’s Madrid, tightened at the seams
Alonso has not only put Real top, he has made them look joined-up. There is a clarity to their off-ball work that was not always present a year ago. The first line presses with purpose, the midfield hunts in sync, and the back line holds with fewer panicked retreats. Mbappé is central to all of it. He has arrived not just as a finisher, but as a catalyst, leading the press at times and tilting entire halves of the field toward the opposition goal. The scoring numbers are predictably gaudy, yet the broader value is how his gravity frees Vinícius and the creative pocket players around them.
Selection-wise, Real’s potential soft spots are in defence. Trent Alexander-Arnold’s hamstring issue removes a distributor from the back, while Antonio Rüdiger’s absence stresses the centre-back rotation. The likely knock-on is Dani Carvajal from the start on the right, Éder Militão as the senior organiser, and Alonso choosing between youth and repurposed full-backs to complete the line. It puts more weight on Aurélien Tchouaméni to patrol the spaces in front, and more responsibility on Federico Valverde to help the right side survive Atlético’s switches and early diagonals. New signing Franco Mastantuano looks dangerous whilst Jude Bellingham may also make his first start back from shoulder surgery.
After netting his first goal vs Levante, how many more do you think Franco Mastantuono is cooking for Real Madrid this season? pic.twitter.com/45n6TFjQNO
— 365Scores (@365Scores) September 24, 2025
Atlético’s search for a settled shape
Simeone has toggled between back-three and back-four looks for months, often landing somewhere in the middle. The wing-back profiles of Nahuel Molina and Javi Galán make the 3-5-2 attractive in big games, with Marcos Llorente as the shuttle runner who can erase a danger or break a line with a single carry. The problem has been cohesion. Injuries have delayed the full integration of the summer signings, and Atlético have played in disjointed bursts, brilliant for twenty minutes then nervy for the next twenty.
Álvarez changes the calculation. His movement without the ball creates passing lanes for Koke and Pablo Barrios, his acceleration threatens behind high lines, and his knack for one-touch finishes rewards quick combinations around the box. Pair him with Antoine Griezmann, who still conducts traffic as well as anyone in Spain, and you have a front two that can either stretch Real’s centre-backs or drop short to overload Madrid’s six space, depending on the phase.
Key battles that will decide it
Mbappé vs Le Normand, plus the cover: Real will look early for Mbappé darting into the left channel, especially when Vinícius carries wide and draws a second defender. Atlético have brought in Le Normand for his calm in the area and his reading of depth, but the duel does not happen in a vacuum. Hancko’s covering angles and Llorente tracking back from midfield are essential, because when Mbappé cuts into the box on his right foot, the next touch is often a shot.
Vinícius vs Molina: When Real swing the ball quickly, the Brazilian isolates right-backs and asks them to defend yards of grass in reverse. Molina is aggressive stepping out, which can win Atlético field position, but mistiming those steps against Vinícius turns into fouls and free-kicks in bad places. Watch the first 15 minutes for signals. If Vinícius wins the initial one-v-ones, Simeone may need to pull a midfielder five yards wider to double.
The spare man in midfield: If Alonso picks both Valverde and Tchouaméni, Real have the legs to hunt Atlético’s first passes and the range to shield their own back line when the host counters. If Bellingham starts, Madrid add late box runs that Atlético have not defended well this month. Simeone’s answer is usually Koke’s positioning and Llorente’s two-way bursts. If Atlético cannot find the spare man when they win the ball, they will be trapped in their half too often.
Set pieces and second balls: Derbies live on edges. Hancko and Le Normand are threats attacking deliveries, but Real’s defensive organisation on dead balls has been cleaner this season. Conversely, Madrid can weaponise Tchouaméni and Militão on corners while Atlético focus on boxing out Courtois. The scramble after the first contact is where this game can flip.
Form lines, and why they might lie
On paper, Madrid are better in nearly every column right now, and their goal difference suggests a margin that should travel across town intact. The wrinkle is the derby’s personality. Atlético’s crowd can amp the game into a sequence of individual duels, exactly the arena where their bruising midfield and aerial threat can level the playing field. Add the fact that Madrid have defensive absences to juggle, and the match’s script suddenly looks less straightforward.
There is also the Álvarez variable. He was unavailable a week ago for the Champions League opener, then re-emerged with a match-winning hat-trick. If he carries that rhythm into Saturday, he changes the speed of Atlético’s attacks and gives Real’s centre-backs something they have not really faced in the league this season, an elite sprinter who combines as well as he runs.
By Nicky Helfgott – NickyHelfgott1 on X (Twitter)
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