By Scott Kacsmar
Congratulations to the Kansas City Chiefs for winning Super Bowl 57, their second championship in four seasons. But to get the label of dynasty, they will need a third in quick order, and the Chiefs are the odds-on favorite to win Super Bowl 58 at +600 odds from FanDuel.
Are the Chiefs a good bet when we have gone almost 20 full years without a repeat champion, the longest drought in NFL history? It is early as free agency and the draft will shake things up, but let’s look at some of the favorites and dark horses for Super Bowl 58 futures.
The Favorite: Kansas City Chiefs (+600)
When the Chiefs are in the AFC Championship Game every year under Patrick Mahomes, they are never a bad bet to win the Super Bowl. We know head coach Andy Reid and tight end Travis Kelce are coming back, and the Chiefs rarely needed much more than that this year to go 17-3 and lead in the fourth quarter of every game.
The Chiefs have gone 33 straight games without losing by more than 4 points, which is one game shy of tying the all-time record. But with such a great season, there were flaws on this team as the defense was just No. 21 in points per drive allowed, No. 31 in the red zone at allowing touchdowns, and No. 32 in passing touchdowns surrendered. The defense played a lot of rookies, so they can get better in 2023. The skill player health could also be better, though if you keep Kadarius Toney around, chances are not good at keeping him off the injury report.
But the schedule has some favorable advantages to the Chiefs, such as getting to host the Bills, Eagles, and Bengals instead of going on the road for those games. The road schedule looks very favorable, though it really comes down to the division.
We were fooled into thinking the AFC West was a loaded race in 2022. Terrible coaching did in the Raiders and Broncos, and at least Denver made a huge move to bring in Sean Payton to fix Russell Wilson, who played two of his best games against the Chiefs in defeat. The Chargers still play the Chiefs tough every game, and who knows what the Raiders will do at quarterback with Derek Carr on the way out.
The Chiefs can get tough games from the Bills and Bengals, but after seeing them still come through to win the Super Bowl this year, how do you bet against Mahomes at this point? He is now 8-1-1 ATS and 7-3 SU as an underdog.
The Bills opened 2022 as the Super Bowl favorites with +600 odds and you could not get a more favorable number than that after Week 1. So, if the Chiefs are the favorites here again, you may want to act now.
Redemption: Buffalo Bills (+850)
The Bills are still in the No. 2 spot after a rollercoaster season that just saw them come out flat at home against the Bengals in the divisional round. This team went through a lot from a deadly snow storm moving a game to Von Miller’s torn ACL to Damar Hamlin’s cardiac arrest that shook up the football world.
It is fair to believe that the Hamlin situation was emotionally draining and the team just could not get it up for a third-straight game after that against the Bengals. It was not looking good in the Cincinnati game before the Hamlin event, so maybe the Bengals are going to be a thorn in Buffalo’s side even more than the Chiefs are in the AFC.
But with the Bills losing so many defenders to injury and showing some flaws in their wide receiver depth, maybe they do a better job of that this year. The turnovers could also come down on offense, and that starts with Josh Allen playing with more composure in his second season under new offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey.
The Bills still have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball and look like the best team in the AFC East. Do not sleep on this team coming back stronger after such a trying year. Also, the most common result for a Super Bowl winner in the previous season is a divisional round loss as 15 of the 57 Super Bowl teams had that ending spark their title run. That beats out the 13 teams who lost the Conference Championship Game the previous season and the 13 teams who missed the playoffs entirely.
We’ll see if Sean McDermott can circle the wagons, but it is a worrisome pick because the Bills are now past the five-year window of winning a Super Bowl with their head coach and quarterback. No team in NFL history has won its first title by starting the same quarterback for the same head coach for more than five years. The 2023 season will be Year 6 for McDermott and Allen in Buffalo.
The NFC Path Less Taken: Philadelphia Eagles (+900)
The Eagles remain the Super Bowl favorite in the NFC, but we know for a while now this conference has loved sending the latest flash in the pan to the big game. No one has gone back-to-back from the NFC since the Seahawks in 2013-14.
But do the Eagles have something with staying power with Nick Sirianni and Jalen Hurts? The Eagles could be losing their coordinators to head coaching jobs, and we are going to see some quarterback movement soon around the league to shake things up again.
But there is still no denying the NFC is the easier path to the Super Bowl right now. It might get even easier if Aaron Rodgers calls it a career, the South is a total mess, and the West has issues with Kyler Murray’s ACL recovery, the 49ers’ quarterback dilemma, Geno Smith being a regression candidate, and Matthew Stafford may have been good for just one run in 2021.
That leaves the NFC East, which has not seen a repeat winner since the Eagles did it last in 2004. This year, the Eagles played very well on both sides of the ball, but they also took advantage of a very easy schedule that featured five games against teams with a winning record who still had a negative scoring differential on the season. They also played the Cowboys with Cooper Rush and got the Brock Purdy injury in the NFC Championship Game.
When the Eagles had to go up against the best quarterback in the league in the Super Bowl, when he wasn’t even at 100%, they got exposed and looked like a paper tiger on defense. While Hurts balled out for the most part in the Super Bowl, he still has never won a game in the NFL against a good team with a good quarterback. The last 14 quarterbacks to win a Super Bowl all won their first trip to the big game as have 31-of-34 quarterbacks in NFL history. The odds are against Hurts right now.
The Eagles were plus-126 in the second quarter this season and only plus-4 in the other three quarters combined. They need to get better at starting and finishing games better instead of just exploding for one big quarter before halftime and hoping it is enough for the win.
But only three teams have ever lost a Super Bowl and won one the next year (1971 Cowboys, 1972 Dolphins, and 2018 Patriots). It may be tempting to take the Eagles with the state of NFC quarterbacks, but with the way this conference finds a new contender each year, you might want to fade them from winning it all as they will face a tougher schedule next year.
The Tough Out: Cincinnati Bengals (+900)
We knew the Bengals overachieved a bit with their quick rise to the Super Bowl in 2021, and after an 0-2 start in 2022, it sure looked like a Super Bowl hangover was in order. But the Bengals snapped out of it and really turned in a better season with a better looking team on both sides of the ball than they had in 2021.
The Bengals also did impressive things in the big games, beating the Chiefs again and smashing the Bills in Buffalo in the divisional round. The Bengals also had a very good effort in Kansas City for the AFC Championship Game, but the fifth sack of Joe Burrow was too much to overcome for an offensive line that was down three starters. It seems the Bengals and Chiefs are destined to play 3-point games.
But you have to give the Bengals a lot of credit for not allowing more than 23 points in any of these playoff games so far. When you watch the Eagles flop in the Super Bowl on defense, it makes you appreciate the Bengals’ game plans even more.
This team is not lacking in confidence whatsoever, but it sure could still use a boost on the offensive line to stop these big sack games against Burrow. He is 21-1 over his last 31 games when he does not get sacked five times, which should not be a difficult bar to clear for a good offense.
The Bengals are worth a futures bet, but we need to see some real improvement with the line and with Burrow getting the job done with the game on the line. Otherwise, this team’s ceiling is going to continue being close losses in title games.
Always the Bridesmaid: San Francisco 49ers (+900)
The fifth and final team with odds better than +1500 are the San Francisco 49ers, who always seem to come up short in these tournaments. It is hard to believe one Super Bowl contending team can lose three quarterbacks to season-ending injuries and a fourth to a concussion in the NFC Championship Game, but that’s what happened to the 49ers to spoil their season and 12-game winning streak.
There is much uncertainty at quarterback with Trey Lance and Brock Purdy coming back from injury. The 49ers invested so much draft capital in Lance, yet the results have been nothing special in his limited action. Purdy was looking like the best hidden gem quarterback since Tony Romo broke out in 2006, but we have no idea if he is the long-term answer for this team.
Frankly, this is not a great bet to make now. With the way the 49ers have started 3-5 and 3-4 the last two years, you can probably wait until early in the season to get this at a better number if they struggle at the start again with the quarterback situation to still play out.
On the Rise: Jacksonville Jaguars (+2500)
After winning a playoff game and pushing the Chiefs in the divisional round, the Jaguars will be favored to win the AFC South again. It took a Tennessee collapse after a 7-3 start for it to happen last year, but the Jaguars are likely going to enter 2023 as the best team in the division with the best quarterback situation, and the offense expects to add wide receiver Calvin Ridley to the mix after trading for the suspended No. 1 receiver last year.
As with any AFC team, the problem comes down to competing with the Chiefs, Bengals, and Bills. The Jaguars showed good ability to come back and win high-scoring games this year, but they were still swept by the Chiefs.
In 2023, the Jaguars are playing a first-place schedule and will have to host the Chiefs, Bengals, 49ers, and they will travel to the Bills and Steelers. Expectations will exist now for Doug Pederson and company.
But it may be worth a small bet as the AFC could always use some young blood, and the Jaguars did gain a lot of valuable experience this year.
Don’t Forget About: Los Angeles Rams (+3000)
Returning to the Rams in 2023: Sean McVay, Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Jalen Ramsey, and Aaron Donald. Any more questions?
There was real concern that McVay would take off to a broadcasting job as he waits for a cushier job with the Cowboys, and that Stafford’s latest injury may force an early retirement.
But the core of this team should be back, and they were a winning team for McVay’s first five years with two Super Bowl trips. He still knows how to coach and they have some of the most elite players in the game on the roster. It would not be crazy to see them bounce back with better health in the weaker conference.
Dark Horse: Denver Broncos (+3500)
You have to be willing to let yourself get hurt again.
The Broncos were a massive disappointment from Week 1 in 2022, but you have to figure a lot of that was head coach Nathaniel Hackett being in over his head and some unfortunate injuries (Javonte Williams, Tim Patrick) that few ever bring up when it’s much easier to let Russell “Let’s Ride” Wilson be the punch line.
Wilson was no doubt a massive disappointment too, but this team lost a lot of close, winnable games, and things like close-game losses and injuries should regress to the mean in 2023.
Oh, they also went out and got Sean Payton, one of the best NFL coaches of the 21st century who should be able to fix Wilson and take advantage of the talent at hand here. The defense should still be better than your average Payton defense that was often among the worst in the league, which explains why he had so many 7-9 seasons with Drew Brees.
You cannot expect Wilson to turn into a 5,000-yard passer like Brees, but Payton understood how to win games late in Brees’ career with backups like Taysom Hill and Teddy Bridgewater. He will be a big asset to Wilson.
Granted, the presence of the Chiefs, who have not lost to the Broncos since 2015, is a big problem for this team winning the Super Bowl. But if they could field a better defense than Kansas City and Payton gets Wilson back to the Hall of Fame quarterback he was on track to be, then you have a very good team here.
Not many teams can boast having a head coach and quarterback who have both won a Super Bowl before. Just the Chiefs and Rams fit that profile right now.
Unless you think Wilson is finished and Payton is overrated, you absolutely should take this number while you still can.
