Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 16

Scott Kacsmar19/12/2025 - 02:37 pm

We knew the NFL had a really important Week 16 schedule, but Rams at Seahawks last night was truly the Game of the Year living up to the hype. What a game, and now we see some pivotal ones that we have NFL picks for like Packers vs. Bears on Saturday, Buccaneers vs. Panthers, and Patriots vs. Ravens.

In recapping our Week 15 picks, it was a rough one. At least the AFC South parlay (+150) hit. But Ravens-Bengals was a 24-0 dud, Tua Tagovailoa used garbage time to destroy our great pick before he got benched this week in Miami anyway, Philip Rivers didn’t hit 150 yards, and there wasn’t much offense going on for Chargers-Chiefs or enough passing for Bills-Patriots.

The worst part was our 0-for-5 parlay to end it after the Panthers blew a lead in New Orleans, Justin Jefferson dropped a touchdown, Kenny Pickett couldn’t throw one, Stafford didn’t throw enough of them, and the Giants (-2.5) couldn’t even beat Washington. Ouch.

Each Friday, we will share seven NFL picks for the weekend. These can be prop picks, spreads, totals, alternate lines, moneylines, teasers, same game parlays, etc. We like to think outside the box instead of just telling you to play the moneyline of big favorites. You can play any of the picks as singles or parlay your favorite choices together. I do tweet winners from time to time before island games kick off, by the way.

Note: Picks are ranked in order of confidence (highest to lowest).

1. Buccaneers at Panthers: Anyone Want the NFC South?

It looks fair to crown the NFC South as the NFL’s worst division this season, an honor it most recently won in 2022 when the Buccaneers won the title with an 8-9 record, beating the Panthers in a late-season game. We could be headed to a similar path with the Panthers and Buccaneers fighting it out here twice in the last three weeks with both entering at 7-7.

But you can’t trust either team right now. Neither defense is trustworthy, neither quarterback has been reliably able to get it done the last month or so, and Todd Bowles seemed poised to set a record for f-bombs in his last post-game presser after this team blew a 28-14 lead to the Falcons. Hell, the Falcons and Saints are beating these teams and playing better football than them right now. Maybe one of them deserves the playoff spot more.

But the division winner is going to be one of these teams, and I refuse to trust either one here as the Panthers are a 3-point home underdog. However, I do like the over 45.5 points as the best bet with the Panthers going over in 4-of-6 home games, and they have pulled off some high-scoring games against the Cowboys and Rams already.

The Buccaneers have all those weapons back for Baker Mayfield, including Mike Evans, but Mayfield needs to play sharper. His last game against Carolina, he threw 5 touchdown passes. He won’t do that here, but I do think both teams score at least 23 points and it goes over.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Over 45.5 (-110) at FanDuel

2. Bills at Browns: Myles Garrett’s Record-Setting Day

We could have history for Myles Garrett in Cleveland on Sunday. Not like there’s much else going on for the Browns, who are 3-11 and a 10.5-point home dog here. But Garrett is sitting at 21.5 sacks with three games to go. The official single-season record is 22.5 games, so one sack ties it, and 1.5 sacks break the record.

BEREA, OH - AUGUST 05: Defensive End Myles Garrett #95 of the Cleveland Browns practices drills during Training Camp at their CrossCountry Mortgage Campus on August 5, 2024 in Berea, Ohio. — (Photo by Don Juan Moore/Getty Images)

Garrett has at least 1.0 sacks in eight straight games, so his chances to at least tie the record are pretty good here. It’d also be special to do it in a game against a future Hall of Famer like Josh Allen, who has taken considerably more sacks this year with 33 after going down 14 times all of last year.

It’s also probably important for Garrett in his personal rivalry with Pittsburgh’s T.J. Watt to make sure he ties or breaks the record in his 15th game. When Watt had 22.5 sacks in 2021, he did it while only playing in 15 games that year.

So, I expect Garrett to get his sack here, and the odds (-188 at FanDuel) are much more valuable here than in recent weeks like when he was -500 against Tennessee. But, the Bills are still going to win this game, and we’ll take an alternate line of -6.5.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Myles Garrett to Record a Sack & Bills -6.5 (+141) at FanDuel

3. Chargers at Cowboys: Justin Herbert Perking Up in Big D?

It’s the second week in a row where the Chargers are a road underdog in an early body clock game against a team they have at least 3 more wins than this season. They beat the Chiefs last week, and they are still technically chasing the AFC West title with Denver at 12-2 and one meeting left.

The Cowboys could be eliminated from the playoffs on Saturday night if the Eagles beat Washington, which is quite possible. Philly would win the NFC East, eliminating Dallas before kickoff here. That’s why I think the Chargers have a lot more to play for as a 2.5-point underdog, and I think they are the better team. No, they don’t have good offensive tackles due to injury, but they play much better defense, and the Cowboys have some issues with finishing drives for touchdowns right now.

That’s why I like Justin Herbert to perk up on the road against a poor defense and throw some touchdowns to his quality receivers he has against the Cowboys. He’ll get the win too, and it may not even have to be a shootout. The luxury of having Jim Harbaugh, someone who knows what they’re doing, as your coach.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Justin Herbert Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns & Chargers ML (+148) at FanDuel

4. Packers at Bears: NFC North’s New Leader?

The Green Bay Packers used to routinely win the NFC North in the Aaron Rodgers era, but they have had some real competition in recent years with the Lions (2023-24) and that crazy Minnesota season in 2022 with the eight comebacks in the fourth quarter. The Packers haven’t won the NFC North since Rodgers’ last MVP season in 2021, and they thought they had a good shot this year with the Micah Parsons trade.

But like tight end Tucker Kraft, the Packers lost Parsons for the year with a torn ACL, dealing a big blow to their Super Bowl prospects. Now, they sit at 9-4-1, coming off a 34-26 loss in Denver. The Bears are 10-4 and have a real shot to win the NFC North, especially if they can split the season series here and improve to 11-4 with two games left.

This is a rematch from just two weeks ago, a game where Caleb Williams started very slow with 11 yards on his first 11 pass attempts. But he finished with 186 yards, 2 touchdown passes, and he was in the red zone with a chance to tie or maybe even win the game late, trailing 28-21. But he threw a pick in the end zone to lose that one.

For the rematch in Chicago this Saturday night, I’m going with Ben Johnson to correct some things from two weeks ago, to take advantage of the Parsons injury and absence, for Williams to start stronger and finish better, and for the Bears to win the turnover battle and win this game.

I like Williams to throw for 200 yards in the win too, a sign of improvement and taking advantage of the Parsons injury as he led the NFL in pass pressures. But keep in mind that while these teams rarely turn the ball over, the Green Bay defense has only forced 13 takeaways all year. The Bears lead the NFL with 30 takeaways, and I think they’ll make the big turnover this time around at home after Jordan Love maybe forces a bad throw off his back foot, fading away.

Fading away just like Green Bay’s chances to reclaim the NFC North if they don’t win this one.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Caleb Williams 200+ Passing Yards & Bears ML (+168 at FanDuel)

5. Patriots at Ravens: The Drake Maye MVP Case

Well, I thought I had a good idea for a Drake Maye MVP parlay with Matthew Stafford throwing a pick in a Seattle win on Thursday night, then Drake Maye having his biggest passing game of the season in a New England win at Baltimore this Sunday night.

But inexplicably, the Seahawks won without Stafford throwing any picks. So, it’s up to Maye to have a big game, and I’m still going with that to happen minus the victory as you never know what the Ravens (tied for a league-worst 5-9 ATS this year) will do.

However, it’s becoming well known that Drake Maye has never thrown for 300 yards in 26 NFL starts. Last week against Buffalo, he threw for 155 yards, his lowest game in 2025, and the lowest game of his career where he’s played in at least 85% of the snaps.

I think this is an excellent opportunity for Maye to have that first 300-yard passing game in a game that’s been flexed to Sunday Night Football. Checking the weather report, it looks like it should be in the mid-30s and clear skies, so that’s fine.

But the Baltimore defense is not what it used to be, and even in recent years when it was better, it still has a tendency to let quarterbacks have career days as passers. Here are just some facts about quarterbacks facing the Ravens in the Lamar Jackson era:

Patrick Mahomes: Threw for 377 yards vs. Ravens in 2018, his second-most yards in his first MVP season.
Baker Mayfield: Of his 10 regular-season games with 340+ passing yards, 5-of-10 came against the Ravens.
Dwayne Haskins: His only 300-yard passing game came against Baltimore in 2020 with 314 yards for Washington.
Joe Burrow: Threw for a career-high 525 yards vs. Ravens in 2021 (three of his top five games are vs. Ravens).
Carson Wentz: threw for a career-high 402 yards vs. Ravens in 2021 (no other game at 365 yards).
Tua Tagovailoa: Threw for a career-high 469 yards vs. Ravens in 2022.
Mac Jones: Threw for a career-high 321 yards vs. Ravens in 2022 (he’s since surpassed it).
Jameis Winston: Threw for 334 yards and 3 touchdowns in an upset win in 2024 in his first start with the Cleveland Browns.
Josh Allen: Threw for 394 yards vs. Ravens in Week 1, 2025 – his most in any game in the last three seasons.
J.J. McCarthy: Threw for 248 yards vs. Ravens in Week 10, 2025 – he was held under 165 yards in every other game before throwing for 250 in Dallas last Sunday night.
Aaron Rodgers: Threw for a season-high 284 yards vs. Ravens in Week 14, 2025 (his only game above 250 yards for Pittsburgh).

This is a good spot to think Maye can go from his season low to his career high in passing yards, beating out the 294 yards he had against the Bengals. If you want to play it safe, you can take him to go over 237.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel), but I’m going for the +370 odds for 300+ yards.

The Ravens could also help him find that first fourth-quarter comeback win in the NFL – he’s 0-7 at one-score comeback opportunities – but we can’t find a precise way to bet that yet. DraftKings has a “team comes back to win” market that works for any quarter.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Drake Maye 300+ Passing Yards (+370 at FanDuel)

6. Steelers at Lions: Shootout in Detroit?

One of the weekend’s best games is in Detroit between a pair of 8-6 teams hoping to return to the playoffs. The Lions (-6.5) need it more, but the Steelers have been playing better. Here’s a 4-leg parlay:

Aaron Rodgers Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns – The Steelers have scored at least 27 points in 4-of-5 games, and Rodgers has stacked good games against the Ravens and Dolphins. Detroit doesn’t have great talent available in the secondary, and he should throw a few touchdowns to keep up here.
D.K. Metcalf Over 60.5 Receiving Yards – He’s coming on in the last few games too to help Rodgers as his only big threat at wide receiver. He has a great matchup here with Detroit’s injured secondary and could catch some deep ones in the dome.
Jahmyr Gibbs Anytime Touchdown Scorer – The Steelers have been prone to giving up good numbers to quality ground attacks this year, and Gibbs is certainly one of the best backs they’ll face. He usually scores at home and should have another here.
Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime Touchdown Scorer – Exactly the kind of route runner who can give the Steelers fits as part of a big day for the Lions offense with T.J. Watt (lung) still out for the Steelers.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – 4 Legs (+633 at FanDuel)

7. Best of the Rest NFL Parlay

Finally, we have a 5-leg parlay that’s not exactly a parlay and just a gathering of other picks we like that we couldn’t fit in above. Mix and match as you please, though the first four picks do have a theme about them:

Joe Burrow 2+ Passing Touchdowns vs. Dolphins: He gets a nice weather game in Miami against a poor defense.
J.J. McCarthy 2+ Passing Touchdowns vs. Giants: Don’t look now, but “Nine” has three road games this year where he’s thrown 2 touchdowns and rushed for one, so I think he can get a couple here through the air against one of the NFL’s worst defenses.
Tyler Shough 2+ Passing Touchdowns vs. Jets: Again, young quarterback against a horrible defense that let Trevor Lawrence score six touchdowns total last week, and Shough is playing well.
Jacoby Brissett 2+ Passing Touchdowns vs. Falcons: Great pass rush? No problem for Jacoby Brissett, who puts up numbers on everyone this year. He’s been great for prop bets (and not winning football games).
Travis Kelce Over 43.5 Receiving Yards vs. Titans: With Patrick Mahomes out, you’ll see Gardner Minshew lock onto the most reliable target here in Kelce, who has some statistical milestones within reach as the Colts (6-8) play out the string on their shocking missed playoff season.

You can also spice things up and consider Philip Rivers to throw multiple touchdown passes (+270 at FanDuel) in his second start against the 49ers after he threw one in his return last week against Seattle.

Scott’s NFL Pick: 5-Leg Parlay (+2348 at FanDuel)

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