The NBA is back Tuesday night for the start of the 2025-26 regular season. We had a lot of incredible playoff moments last year with the Oklahoma City Thunder winning their first championship after denying the Indiana Pacers in Game 7 after an all-time upset bid. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been on top of the world, winning the scoring title, MVP, and Finals MVP.
But we have a league where no one has been able to repeat since the Golden State Warriors in 2017-18. SGA and the Thunder are heavy favorites to do it again, but they’ll have to contend with a deep Western Conference that still houses the old guard with LeBron James, Steph Curry, and Kevin Durant (now with Houston). They still have main MVP contenders in Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic. They may even have tomorrow’s superstars in Victor Wembanyama and rookie Cooper Flagg.
Meanwhile, the Eastern Conference is starting to look like the series finale of Fresh Prince with Giannis Antetokounmpo standing alone, wondering where all his friends went. Jayson Tatum and Tyrese Haliburton are likely out for the whole season with their Achilles injuries suffered in the playoffs. Expectations aren’t high anymore for Joel Embiid in Philadelphia. Donovan Mitchell is still waiting for his first trip to the Eastern Conference Finals. It could be on Jalen Brunson and the Knicks, who controversially fired head coach Tom Thibodeau.
Maybe Indiana’s Cinderella run last year can be copied by an unexpected challenger this year. It should be an interesting season, the 80th in NBA history, and we have some of the top storylines to follow along with the current odds and our best bets for the NBA Finals and major awards.
Table of Contents
Best 2025-26 NBA Season Storylines
Let’s go over some of the top storylines you should follow this season.
Will the Thunder Repeat?
The Thunder ran away with a very competitive Western Conference last season, finishing 68-14, a full 16 wins above the No. 2 seed in Houston. They set an NBA record for the largest margin of victory per game for a full season. This was on the heels of a 2023-24 season where the Thunder were 57-25 and also the No. 1 seed, so coach Mark Daigneault is hardly a one-year wonder. He’s built something special here and the rest of the league is going to have to deal with them for the time being.
Over the summer, the Thunder spent over $820 million to lock up their young trio of MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren for years to come. SGA has improved his game each year while Williams developed into a Scottie Pippen-type All-Star last season and into the playoffs. Holmgren’s game is far from a finished product too, so 2025 may not have been the peak for this trio.
The Thunder also return some key glue players like Alex Caruso, Luguentz Dort, Isaiah Hartenstein, Isaiah Joe, and Aaron Wiggins. The band is staying together for at least another season.
Repeating used to be so commonplace in the NBA. But no one has pulled it off since the Warriors in 2018, and they were heavily favored to do so with -187 preseason odds. Right now, you can find the Thunder with +200 odds to repeat at FanDuel, the highest for a preseason favorite since the Warriors.
The seven seasons without a repeat champion is the second-longest streak in NBA history. But the Thunder are favored to win over 62.5 games, so expectations are sky high again after the team got a taste of championship success.
Probably my favorite piece to write last postseason was discussing the secret sauce behind OKC’s historic success: Dominating the turnover battle unlike any team in NBA history. That’s how the Thunder win by such large margins. They protect the ball at an elite level, and they pressure the ball, they force deflections, and they jumpstart their offense by getting those turnovers. We saw it often throughout the playoffs too.
Unlike the NFL where turnovers regress to the mean (see Bills, Chargers, and Ravens this year compared to 2024), you can sustain more of this success in basketball, and the Thunder certainly have the youthful energy to keep pestering teams for the ball. They led the NBA in deflections in 2023-24 as well, so it’s not a fluke.
But one could argue this team isn’t that elite at any other facet of the game like shooting, 3-point shooting, rebounding, or getting assists. In fact, let’s just point out that had the Thunder and Pacers not both choked away fourth-quarter leads at home in Game 4s of the semifinals and NBA Finals, the Thunder would have been down 3-1 in each series. They may not have even escaped past Denver in the semis.
But the Thunder won both series in Game 7 at home, proving they can be pushed by inferior teams. We’ll never know what would have happened if Tyrese Haliburton didn’t tear his Achilles in the first quarter of Game 7 of the NBA Finals after he looked like the best player on the court that night and ready to seize the moment.
So, I think it’s fair to question if this team has the elite players beyond SGA to go on a dynastic run and win a couple more championships here. But they got through one run and they are rightfully favored to do it again.
They’re just not “inevitable” on the level of Michael Jordan’s Bulls in the 1990s or even the Warriors who went to the NBA Finals in five straight years in 2015-19.
New Coaches: All Eyes on the Knicks, Spurs
One can debate the value of NBA coaches since they go through them so quickly these days. But there are six new coaches for the 2025-26 season, and more than half of them were interim coaches at the end of last year who were promoted to the job full time: David Adelman (Nuggets), Tuomas Iisalo (Thunder), and Doug Christie (Kings).
As for new hires, the Phoenix Suns’ rebuild will be overseen by Jordan Ott, an assistant from Cleveland last year. But the coach under the most pressure is Mike Brown with the New York Knicks, who fired Tom Thibodeau after his fifth season was his most successful with 51 wins and a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals.
There’s a reasonable case to get rid of Thibodeau now, but I’m not sure hiring Mike Brown isn’t just a lateral move. A total of 38 head coaches have won an NBA championship, and 37 of them did it in their first 11 years as a coach. Thibodeau had 13 cracks at it and came up empty, but Brown is in Year 12 after doing his best work with a young LeBron James in Cleveland. Brown hasn’t won a playoff series since 2012 with the Lakers.
What Are the Legends Up To in 2025-26?
There’s a sentiment among NFL fans that we were spoiled by a golden era of passers before Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo, Philip Rivers, Matt Ryan, Eli Manning, etc. all retired. The game hasn’t been quite the same when you’re having to watch whatever it is C.J. Stroud and Sam Darnold were doing last night in Seattle.
The NBA may be entering that period soon too as the legends headed for the Hall of Fame are on their last legs. Cherish them while you can, because you never know if this season will be their last or not.
Here’s where some all-time greats are playing this year:
- LeBron James (41 in December): The King will have to wait for his 2025-26 debut as he’s dealing with sciatic nerve pain, which could linger for longer than the month he plans on missing with the Lakers. James has made no distinction that this will be his final season but sciatica is no joke.
- Kevin Durant (just turned 37): We’ll see if Durant can energize the Houston Rockets, his latest team after a trade from Phoenix. He joins a No. 2 seed who needed a big-time scorer, and Durant hasn’t dipped under 25.0 points per game since his rookie year.
- Steph Curry (38 in March) and Draymond Green (35 in March): They’re still at it in Golden State, and they’ll have a full year with Jimmy Butler (36) and Al Horford (39) too to make up one of the oldest cores in NBA history. Curry can still shoot the 3 unlike anyone though.
- Chris Paul (40): He’s still going at 40 as he’s back with the Los Angeles Clippers after he still averaged 28.0 minutes per game for the Spurs last year.
- Russell Westbrook (37 in November): The triple-double king just signed with Sacramento last week after a couple years with Denver.
Even Kyle Lowry (76ers) is still playing for his age-40 season. This era isn’t going away without a fight.
Who Emerges in the Eastern Conference?
Here are the current odds from FanDuel on which team will win the Eastern Conference in 2025-26 (only top 9 listed):
- Cavaliers (+220)
- Knicks (+380)
- Magic (+650)
- Hawks (+950)
- Pistons (+1100)
- Celtics (+1100)
- 76ers (+1200)
- Bucks (+1400)
- Pacers (+3500)
What a difference a year makes. At this time a year ago, we were asking if the Celtics could repeat and turn into a dynasty. Now, they shipped Jrue Holiday (Portland) and Kristaps Porzingis (Hawks) to other teams, and Jayson Tatum is recovering from his torn Achilles suffered in the Knicks playoff loss.
Just like that, the championship window is temporarily closed or barely left ajar with Tatum unlikely to return until April at the earliest, if he plays at all this year. Can Jaylen Brown carry the team to at least the playoffs? We’ll see, but it’s wild to see the Magic and Hawks having better odds than Boston, who are tied with the upstart Pistons.
Likewise, the odds no longer like the Bucks and 76ers as much despite the presence of Giannis and Embiid. They’ve had injuries in playoff seasons before, and we’ve seen Damian Lillard tear his Achilles (he’s back in Portland but won’t play this year), and Paul George was injured for Philly last year. We aren’t looking at these teams as Finals contenders anymore, though I still wouldn’t doubt Giannis if he can just stay healthy in the spring.
But similar to Boston, the Indiana Pacers are being counted out early from major contention because of Tyrese Haliburton’s Achilles injury. He definitely won’t play this season, but it wouldn’t be that shocking if Rick Carlisle still snuck his team into the playoffs because he’s just that good of a coach.
Plus, if some of these teams are taking a step back, some should take their place and take a step forward. I’m just not sure I trust teams yet led by Trae Young (Hawks), Cade Cunningham (Pistons), and Paolo Banchero (Magic) to go the distance in the playoffs.
That’s why the Eastern Conference feels like a battle between the Cavaliers and Knicks. This is also an argument for why the Knicks maybe should have kept Thibodeau to maintain their continuity while improving the bench depth for the team. With the Pacers eliminating the Knicks in consecutive years, they probably don’t have to worry about that this season.
Cleveland is an understandable favorite after a 64-18 season, top seed, and the Cavs were 4-0 against the Knicks last year. They have great balance. But Jalen Brunson is a clutch playoff performer while Donovan Mitchell has yet to get past the semifinals despite his scoring success in the postseason. It would probably be a good series if that was the ECF.
NBA 2025-26 Player Awards: Best Bets
In the next sections, I’m going to make my favorite bet for the NBA player awards going into the start of the 2025-26 season.
NBA Most Valuable Player
Right now, there are only six players with better than +7500 odds to win MVP, which feels a little unfair (via FanDuel):
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+160)
- Nikola Jokic (+300)
- Luka Doncic (+400)
- Victor Wembanyama (+1000)
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (+1300)
- Anthony Edwards (+2500)
The last two years it’s been SGA vs. Nikola Jokic, and you could reasonably conclude Jokic should have won five straight MVP awards instead of 3-of-5. But maybe voter fatigue will set in and people will want to crown a new player. Besides, can you do better than 68 wins and a scoring title if you’re SGA? Can you do better than averaging a triple-double and career highs in points and assists like Jokic did last year when he didn’t win?
Kevin Durant (+7000) is a longshot with some value as any overachieving Houston does will likely be on his shoulders. Plus, they lost VanVleet and aren’t expected to be as great.
I wish Luka had better odds as he’s an interesting choice with LeBron’s health likely holding him back this season. Doncic will be the true leader of the Lakers, and he’s never won the award before and usually has great statistics, making a strong case for him.
You usually need to win 50 games to win MVP, so it might be too early for Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs for this award. But he’s a threat if he can stay healthy and improve in Year 3.
I’m content with Luka or Giannis right now. For pure value on the odds, I’ll take Giannis to surprise people with how well Milwaukee finishes as a team that reaps the benefit of the fall of Boston/Philly/Indiana.
Scott’s NBA Pick: 2025-26 NBA Most Valuable Player – Giannis Antetokounmpo (+1300) at FanDuel
NBA Defensive Player of the Year
Victor Wembanyama was absolutely going to win this one last year before injuries cost him as you have to play a minimum number of games to qualify. That’s the only real concern this year, but hopefully his blood clot issues will be resolved. Between LeBron’s sciatica and Wemby’s blood clots, these athletic freaks of nature have never felt more relatable to me. But as the game’s next phenom and an elite shot blocker, Wemby is the pick here.
However, I wouldn’t fault anyone for throwing some plays on Chet Holmgren (+650) just in case injury costs Wemby again.
Scott’s NBA Pick: 2025-26 NBA Defensive Player of the Year – Victor Wembanyama (-185) at FanDuel
NBA Sixth Man of the Year
The favorite is a solid choice in Naz Reid (+900) for the Timberwolves. But I’m going with Josh Hart for the Knicks with the prevailing narrative that the bench is deeper for New York and better utilized this year. Hart is a very good all-around player who could shine for a team that’s very successful this year.
Scott’s NBA Pick: 2025-26 NBA Sixth Man of the Year – Josh Hart (+1100) at FanDuel
NBA Rookie of the Year
Isn’t this one a no-brainer? Duke’s Cooper Flagg had all the hype going into the draft where Dallas was able to make him the No. 1 pick and pair him with Anthony Davis. He has better than even odds to win Rookie of the Year now.
Ace Bailey (+900), Tre Johnson (+1000), Dylan Harper (+1300), and V.J. Edgecombe (+1400) are the only other players with better than +2000 odds. I think if you’re looking for emergency value in case Flagg gets injured and doesn’t qualify, I’d go with Edgecombe in Philly or Dylan Harper in case the young Spurs have a really good year.
Scott’s NBA Pick: 2025-26 NBA Rookie of the Year – Cooper Flagg (-220) at FanDuel
NBA Most Improved Player
I haven’t thoroughly studied this market to see what usually wins. But my gut says Andrew Nembhard takes the experience of his postseason success for the Pacers and thrives in replacing Haliburton in that offense for a well-coached team. He’ll win the award for Most Improved Player, which he currently has the fourth-best odds to win.
Scott’s NBA Pick: 2025-26 NBA Most Improved Player – Andrew Nembhard (+1500) at FanDuel
NBA Finals Prediction
I respect the Thunder even if I’m not particularly fond of their brand of basketball. You know, the “free throw merchant” accusations. But I’m going with a different Finals that we’ve never seen before.
The Knicks will be the team that emerges from the ashes of the Eastern Conference with no Indiana to get in their way, and Cleveland is just a cursed sports team unless LeBron is leading them. Karl-Anthony Towns will step up in the postseason and Brunson will win Eastern Conference Finals MVP to get the Knicks to the NBA Finals.
On the other side of the bracket, Nikola Jokic finishes the job this year against the Thunder, embracing an improved roster that added veteran depth, got rid of the dead weight like Russell Westbrook and Michael Porter Jr., and don’t overlook the improvement of Chrisitan Braun. Aaron Gordon had an all-time clutch postseason and will hopefully be healthier this time around as Jokic returns with Denver to the Finals.
In the Finals, Jokic will win MVP after he and Jamal Murray outshine Brunson and KAT. That’s my story and I’m sticking to it.
Scott’s NBA Pick: 2026 NBA Finals Matchup – New York Knicks vs. Denver Nuggets (+2300 at FanDuel)
Scott’s NBA Pick: 2026 NBA Finals Winner – Denver Nuggets (+650 at FanDuel)
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