Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: 2024 Divisional Round

The NFL playoffs continue with the epic divisional round, which we already previewed for both the AFC and NFC. It’s been a rough start for road teams this postseason, but we’ll see if the games are a little more competitive and higher scoring this week with plenty on the line for all eight teams.
In recapping our wild card picks, at least the Ravens (-9.5) came through to stop it from being a bloodbath. I still can’t believe Bo Nix threw an excellent touchdown on the opening drive and the Broncos never scored again in Buffalo. But let’s hope for a better week where A.J. Brown has more than 10 yards and some losing teams actually exceed 14 points.
Each Friday, we will share seven NFL picks that we are including in our bets for the weekend. These can be prop picks, spreads, totals, alternate lines, moneylines, teasers, same game parlays, etc. We like to think outside the box instead of just telling you to play the moneyline of big favorites. You can play any of the picks as singles or parlay your favorite choices together. I do tweet winners from time to time before island games kick off, by the way.
Note: Picks are ranked in order of confidence (highest to lowest).
Table of Contents
1. Texans at Chiefs: Shake It (the Rust) Off
The Texans played about as poorly as you can expect from a home team in the playoffs in the first half against the Chargers. Yet they still went into the locker room with a 10-6 lead, which was the first sign the Chargers were in major trouble before losing 32-12.
It’s hard to think the Texans could do worse of a start than that. It’s especially true when you consider that the Chiefs haven’t played their starters since Christmas, creating a historic 24-day window of rest between games for so many key players on the Chiefs.
We found that teams who rest like the Chiefs did in the final game of the regular season don’t even average a full 1-point lead at halftime in the divisional round playoff game. They also are terrible at covering the spread (9-22 if they rested some players or most).
It’s not just an issue for Patrick Mahomes and the offense. If you think he’ll be ready to play, then so be it. But the defense could be rusty, and the Chiefs have a history of starting slowly on that side of the ball before figuring things out in the second half.

In Week 16, Houston led briefly at 10-7 in the second quarter but trailed 17-10 at halftime. It’s really tempting to take Texans +5.5 as the first-half spread in this game given the rust potential for the Chiefs, but I think the best value and better bet is for the Texans to score over 7.5 points in the first half. That’s just a field goal and touchdown, much like what they had in Week 16 in Kansas City, and what they had last week in the playoffs.
The Texans also were tied 10-10 at halftime with the Ravens last year in the divisional round, a similar situation where they were on the road against the No. 1 seed with Nico Collins as their last healthy receiving threat. They scored a punt return touchdown that day to keep pace, but they were also bringing it defensively with multiple sacks of Lamar Jackson.

The Chiefs haven’t turned the ball over in seven straight games, tying the 2010 Patriots for the all-time record. Maybe the Chiefs turn it over early and the Texans convert that into an easy touchdown on a short field. Stroud also didn’t look like the moment was too big for him in Week 16 despite some picks thrown.
I’ll take my chances with the Texans going over 7.5 points by halftime before the Chiefs can get back on their pursuit of the three-peat. They just better hope they don’t spot this team a 24-0 lead like they did in the 2019 divisional round because I’m not convinced the 2024 Chiefs can score over 31 points in less than three full quarters of a game.
Scott’s NFL Pick: 1st Half Texans Total Points Over 7.5 (+100 at FanDuel)
2. Ravens at Bills: Not a Shootout
As detailed in the AFC divisional round preview, I do not expect a big shootout in Buffalo between Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. These epic quarterback duels in the postseason rarely ever turn out that way. Instead, one defense and/or running game tends to dominate, and that’s the team that usually wins the game. Getting both quarterbacks to play really well is a pipe dream.
You can just look at the four Allen-Jackson games and you will find just one game where both teams scored more than 17 points, and they have yet to have a game where both quarterbacks passed for 165 yards.
Maybe they prove me wrong this week, but when it comes to one of the coldest games in playoff history as the forecast suggests, you usually don’t get a huge score. We have weather data on 25 playoff games going back to the 1960s when the temperature was under 15 degrees, and the total finished under 51.5 points in 20 of those games (80%), including five of the last six times.
Consider the fact that the Ravens have the No. 1 scoring defense since Week 11, and they already held the Bills to a season-low 10 points in Week 4 when they weren’t playing good defense yet. They’ve gained a lot of confidence throughout the season, and the night they held Buffalo to 10, the Bills were red hot at 3-0.
Then you have to account for the possibility that the Ravens have their annual implosion game on offense given the fact that Lamar Jackson has led his lowest-scoring game in the playoffs in all four of his postseason appearances, a record.
It may not happen this time if the Ravens rely on Derrick Henry again, but we’ll have to see them do it. I also don’t like the fact that Zay Flowers is likely out with that knee injury for this game. You can get by the Steelers running a 2012 playbook with the zone-read option, but the Bills should be playing to stop the run first and foremost this week.
However, the Ravens need to stay patient with it and not repeat last year’s AFC title game loss where their backs received six carries in a game they never trailed by more than 10 points. But with the expectations of running and no Flowers, I think going under 221.5 passing yards for Lamar is a great bet on top of the under 51.5 points for the game.
Let there be runs. Let there be turnovers. Let the defenses and running games (including the quarterbacks’ legs as both are deadly runners) decide this one. Not the aerial show.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Lamar Jackson Under 221.5 Passing Yards & Under 51.5 Points (+160 at FanDuel)

3. Commanders at Lions: Scary Terry’s Biggest Game Ever
Terry McLaurin has been waiting his whole career for a quarterback like Jayden Daniels to come to Washington. His prayers were answered this year, and McLaurin caught a career-high 13 touchdowns in the regular season with 12 of them coming from the hand of Daniels.

McLaurin scored again in the playoffs against Tampa Bay last week. He’s scored in six of the last seven games, and this is expected to be a very offensive game in Detroit where he’ll need to win matchups with those corners if the Commanders are going to keep up with the NFL’s No. 1 scoring offense. I like him to find the end zone once again as Daniels’ favorite target there.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Terry McLaurin Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+130 at FanDuel)
4. Texans at Chiefs: DeAndre Hopkins’ Revenge Game
I really liked DeAndre Hopkins when these teams met in Week 16. But he ended up only catching 4-of-4 targets for 37 yards while Patrick Mahomes went to his other receivers more, including 8 targets for Hollywood Brown in his season debut. Rookie Xavier Worthy also continues to see more targets than Hopkins down the stretch.
But the Chiefs may have been purposely limiting Hopkins’ snaps both as a way to lessen the trade compensation with Tennessee, and to help the veteran rest up for the championship run. This is Hopkins’ first playoff game since 2019 when his Texans lost a 24-0 lead in Kansas City in the divisional round. He’s been waiting a lot of years to play in a big game like this.
Throw in the way Houston allows so many 40-yard receivers this year, and with Mahomes likely looking to release the ball fast and often this week, Hopkins feels like a good bet to exceed his over/under line (31.5 yards) and have a nice playoff debut for the Chiefs and against his former team.
Scott’s NFL Pick: DeAndre Hopkins 40+ Receiving Yards (+142 at FanDuel)
5. Rams at Eagles: Let’s Try This Again, Philly
Betting on the Philadelphia offense was quite a mess last week against Green Bay. Jalen Hurts barely threw the ball (13 completions for 131 yards) and didn’t score a sneak touchdown. A.J. Brown had one catch for 10 yards while changing an author’s life by reading his book on the sideline. Saquon Barkley rushed for 119 yards but no touchdowns.
Let’s try this again as maybe they were being cautious with Hurts after his concussion and missing some time. The offense has been pretty solid against the Rams the last two years, and obviously, Saquon was the star in Week 12 when he rushed for 255 yards, including a pair of 70-yard touchdown runs. We’re not going to bet on that again, but we are going to take his over (111.5 yards) based on the research that teams who run the ball that well are in decent shape to do it again in a playoff rematch.
Even if Barkley got half of his yardage this time, he’d still go over 111.5 yards. The Philadelphia offensive line is that trustworthy to think he has another strong game here.
But instead of making the obvious bet to back a bigger game from A.J. Brown this week, let’s think outside the box a little. DeVonta Smith is also a very good receiver who did not play when these teams met. He was involved last week with 55 yards against the Packers, he’s been reliable at home, and he’s gone over 50 yards in 10-of-14 games played this season.
Three of the games where Smith was under 50 yards were division games, defenses that know him well. Let’s also back him to hit 50 yards in this game as a new wrinkle the Rams didn’t have to worry about last time.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Saquon Barkley Over 111.5 Rushing Yards & DeVonta Smith 50+ Receiving Yards (+219 at FanDuel)

6. Tight End Parlay
Tight ends did not have a huge wild card weekend at all as only Dallas Goedert and T.J. Hockenson scored touchdowns as TE1s, and both needed some great YAC effort to do it. We have a 3-leg parlay that favors three tight ends in this weekend’s divisional round slate:
- Dalton Schultz Over 38.5 Receiving Yards
- Sam LaPorta Anytime Touchdown Scorer
- Mark Andrews 3+ Receptions
Dalton Schutlz is going to have to produce for Houston with Tank Dell out. He hasn’t cracked 30 yards in the three games since Dell was injured in Kansas City, but he had 45 yards that day (and a touchdown) because the Chiefs have struggled to cover tight ends since Week 1. The Chiefs have allowed a league-high 1,191 receiving yards to tight ends. Schultz needs to hit his over here.
The Commanders have allowed eight touchdowns to tight ends this year, and Sam LaPorta is a sneaky good option to score for Detroit. His touchdown count has dropped from 10 to 7 this year, but he scored in two of Detroit’s last three games.
With Zay Flowers likely out for Baltimore, Mark Andrews must play well and be a reliable target for Lamar Jackson. They also have Isaiah Likely, but the tight ends need to carry the passing game for this offense. Andrews has been alternating over and under 2.5 catches for the last six games, but he only had two catches against Pittsburgh last week. Let’s bank on him going over in this game to help Baltimore score enough on the road.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Parlay – Dalton Schultz Over 38.5 Receiving Yards & Sam LaPorta Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Mark Andrews 3+ Receptions (+539 at FanDuel)
7. NFL Divisional Round Parlay
Finally, we have a 4-leg parlay with some longshot picks we like from each game this weekend. Feel free to tease them down to the player’s normal lines if you want to lower the risk, but the odds here are nearly 82 to 1.
- Travis Kelce 70+ Receiving Yards
- Amon-Ra St. Brown 90+ Receiving Yards
- A.J. Brown Anytime Touchdown Scorer
- Derrick Henry 2+ Touchdowns
Travis Kelce has exceeded 70 receiving yards in 13 straight playoff games, a streak so absurd that it’s as long as the next two longest streaks combined (7 games by Antonio Brown and 6 games by multiple players). This is Kelce’s time of year, he’s well-rested, and the Chiefs should feed him the ball this week with a lot of quick targets to neutralize the Houston pass rush.
Amon-Ra St. Brown’s had a weird season in that he’s only hit 80 receiving yards four times, but he’s gone over 112 yards each time. That means he’s had no games between 78 and 111 yards this season, a pretty wide range he had in nine games in 2023. But I like the matchup with the Washington secondary, Detroit will move him around from the slot, and this game indoors has the best chance of being a passing fest this weekend.
We threw DeVonta Smith a bone earlier, so yes, we’re not going to neglect A.J. Brown, the best receiver for the Eagles. He’s already had a touchdown against the Rams this season, and he’s caught one in seven different games. He had a 3-game scoring streak before last week’s dud, but look for him to get involved more this week and make a scoring play for his team.
Finally, let’s trust King Henry to score two touchdowns just like he did against the Steelers last week and like he did against the Bills in Week 4. That included a receiving play against the Bills, but he’s a dominant runner and the Ravens must rely on him heavily in this matchup if they want to win. Also, he shouldn’t have to worry about Lamar stealing any scores from him at the 1. That’s Henry’s job.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Parlay – Travis Kelce 70+ Receiving Yards & Amon-Ra St. Brown 90+ Receiving Yards & A.J. Brown Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Derrick Henry 2+ Touchdowns (+8197 at FanDuel)

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