
The NFL is switching things up with a huge Saturday doubleheader that we have NFL picks for below. But we’re also keying in on that Eagles-Commanders rematch in Washington, looking to end a historic touchdown catch drought for a tight end, and we’ll find a way to make Sunday night in Dallas more interesting when the Buccaneers take on Cooper Rush, who is somehow starting his fourth island game since Week 11.
In recapping our Week 15 picks, it was a strong week as the Ravens came through with a 30-point game, Jordan Love threw his second touchdown just in the nick of time, the 4-team moneyline parlay (+237) hit, and the Eagles’ passing game parlay (+206) delivered too. Just bummed out that Jameis Winston threw too many picks to get benched before he hit his over in yards.
Each Friday, we will share seven NFL picks that we are including in our bets for the weekend. These can be prop picks, spreads, totals, alternate lines, moneylines, teasers, same game parlays, etc. We like to think outside the box instead of just telling you to play the moneyline of big favorites. You can play any of the picks as singles or parlay your favorite choices together. I do tweet winners from time to time before island games kick off, by the way.
Note: Picks are ranked in order of confidence (highest to lowest).
Table of Contents
1. Steelers at Ravens: Lamar’s Time?
Lamar Jackson is having one of the best dual-threat seasons in NFL history at the quarterback position. But the reason people just scoff when he throws five touchdown passes against the Giants is because they know he has the Steelers up next in a huge game, and Jackson has literally never played well in a win against the Steelers, the team’s chief rival in the division, in his career.
Granted, the Ravens have not had Jackson available for many Steelers games over the year, but he’s healthy for this one, he’s at home, and the Ravens must win unless they want to see the Steelers celebrate the AFC North title on their field this Saturday afternoon.
There’s never been a better situation for Lamar to have a big win against the Steelers, who enter this game as a 6.5-point underdog as George Pickens is reportedly out with a hamstring injury. That’s going to make it very hard for the Steelers to score points as they already struggled with this Baltimore defense last month in Pittsburgh when Pickens played. They settled for six field goals and that was Russell Wilson’s worst game of the season despite the win. Baltimore’s defense is playing much better right now than earlier this year.
So, one of our picks is for the Steelers to score under 19.5 points, their team total line in this matchup. This is Steelers-Ravens, so these teams are used to playing 16-13 and 19-16 games as it is. But it just seems that the only way the Steelers score a lot here is if the Ravens cough up the ball and give them short fields like they did in the last matchup.
That’s why it’s crucial for Jackson to protect the ball. He could have help there this week as T.J. Watt, who creates so many splash plays for this defense, is unlikely to be 100% after he left Sunday’s game in Philadelphia with a leg injury.
The Ravens shot themselves in the foot in every way possible in Pittsburgh earlier this season. They still only lost 18-16 after failing on a late 2-point conversion. Let’s trust them to finally get the job done and get Jackson a big win in the rivalry.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Steelers Under 19.5 Points & Ravens ML (-105 at FanDuel)
2. Lions at Bears: Trap Game for Detroit?
We have a 2-leg parlay taking advantage of alternate scoring lines for both teams as this could be a trap game on the road for the Lions, who have 22 players on injured reserve now.
- Bears Over 16.5 Points
- Lions Under 30.5 Points
The Lions could very well still win this game decisively as the Bears haven’t won any game since the bye week. But if you go back to Thanksgiving in Detroit, the Bears were down 16 points late and probably should have won if not for some of the worst clock management in NFL history that led to the firing of coach Matt Eberflus the next day.
Rookie quarterback Caleb Williams was picking that injury-plagued defense apart in the second half as he threw three touchdowns and made great plays. Guess what? The Lions have only gotten more injured on defense since that game, and they allowed 31 points to the Packers and 48 to the Bills at home these last two weeks.
The Bears may not score a ton, but they can get to 17 points against a defense that is relying on street free agents at this point. As for the other side of the ball, let’s not forget that the Bears held the Lions to 23 points in Detroit on Thanksgiving. They forced Jared Goff into some incompletions he wasn’t usually throwing at the time, and they even survived a huge rushing day from the Lions, who lost David Montgomery for the season last week, a blow to their dynamic backfield duo.
But it is going to be cold this Sunday in Chicago, and you never know about Goff in Chicago weather this time of year. Last December, the Lions lost 28-13 in Chicago in December in a game where Goff turned it over three times.
Let’s not go predicting any upset here, but I feel good about the Bears getting to 17 points and holding the Lions under 30 again.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Bears Over 16.5 Points & Lions Under 30.5 Points (+108 at FanDuel)
3. Cardinals at Panthers: Just One Receiving Touchdown for Trey McBride for Christmas
Tight end Trey McBride is having a Pro Bowl season for the Cardinals, but he’s also making history as he now has 89 catches for 938 yards and not a single receiving touchdown this season. He’s basically the 2022 Diontae Johnson of tight ends, a nod to the year when the Pittsburgh wideout had 86 catches for 882 yards and no touchdowns. McBride just surpassed those numbers.
Quarterback Kyler Murray promises McBride will get his touchdown soon. He technically has one this season on a rushing attempt, but he’s still empty in the stat sheet for touchdown catches. That could very well change in Carolina against one of the worst defenses in the NFL.
The Panthers have allowed 59 drives to reach the red zone where they’ve allowed 38 touchdowns – both numbers are the most in the league this season. The Panthers have also allowed 10 touchdowns to tight ends, the most in the league.
It seems too perfect, but the setup is absolutely here for McBride to get his first touchdown catch of 2024 just in time for Christmas.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Trey McBride Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+125 at FanDuel)
4. Eagles at Commanders: Passing Fancy NFL Picks
One of the best games this Sunday could be the rematch between the Eagles and Commanders with the Eagles close to clinching the NFC East. They met in Week 11, but it was an offensive slog as Jayden Daniels didn’t look healthy (ribs) on a short week and really struggled to throw the ball more than 5 yards or get his wide receivers involved. Jalen Hurts struggled early too before the offense caught fire late with big runs by Saquon Barkley.
Look for better quarterback play from both teams in this game that won’t be rushed on a Thursday night. Daniels has been playing great again for the Commanders the last few weeks, and he should be better prepared for this top-ranked defense this time. He threw for 191 yards last time, but we like him to get to 200 this time, something he’s done in 11-of-14 games this year (11-of-13 games he didn’t leave injured).
As for Hurts, he actually threw for 221 yards in that first matchup, and the Washington defense can be had down the field and is vulnerable to good receivers like A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Hurts was excellent last week against the Steelers, passing for 290 yards in a big win.
Let’s go with both quarterbacks to throw for 200 yards in this game, which will hopefully have more points and lead changes than their last meeting did.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Jayden Daniels 200+ Passing Yards & Jalen Hurts 200+ Passing Yards (+195 at FanDuel)
5. Buccaneers at Cowboys: Baker’s Toys vs. Dem Boyz
For Sunday Night Football in Dallas, we have a 3-leg parlay that heavily favors the Buccaneers, who are a 3.5-point road favorite:
- Mike Evans Over 78.5 Receiving Yards
- Bucky Irving 40+ Rushing Yards
- Buccaneers ML
Mike Evans is not only trying to help the Buccaneers win another NFC South title, but he’s 251 yards away from his 11th-straight 1,000-yard receiving season, a streak that matters to him. He missed three games this season, but after 159 yards against the Chargers last week, he’s well within striking distance to hit 1,000 again. That’s why I think he has a good game and hits his over in Dallas, a defense that has allowed a lot of big pass plays this year.
It also helps when Baker Mayfield is slinging the ball like this. He was fantastic in Los Angeles, but don’t discount Bucky Irving and the ground game that is also piling up yards now. Irving left the Raiders game in Week 14 with an injury, but he’s had 117 and 152 rushing yards in his last two full games. We’re being modest with 40 yards here as the Cowboys have not stopped the run well this season.
Ultimately, look for the Bucs to get the road win even though the Cowboys are playing better football and are 3-1 in the last month. But Tampa Bay has an elite offense and has been getting better defensively just in time for the playoffs.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Mike Evans Over 78.5 Receiving Yards & Bucky Irving 40+ Rushing Yards & Buccaneers ML (+207 at FanDuel)
6. Patriots at Bills: Josh Allen’s MVP Chase
Josh Allen started his 2024 MVP campaign by rushing for two touchdowns against Arizona in Week 1. But we only saw him reach the end zone that way once in the next eight games. However, he’s scored in five straight games, and he has five rushing touchdowns in the last two weeks alone as the Bills are all in on getting his touchdown count as high as possible to get that MVP award. Allen has been getting the sneak touchdowns from the 1-yard line this month, and the Patriots have already allowed six 1-yard touchdowns this year.
Allen scored rushing touchdowns in both games against the Patriots last year, including two scores at home in Week 17. This defense is arguably worse, the Bills are red hot right now, and you should take advantage by banking on Allen to score another two touchdowns himself as the Bills try to get that No. 1 seed from Kansas City.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Josh Allen to Score 2+ Touchdowns (+480 at FanDuel)
7. Texans at Chiefs: New SGP Options
Finally, we have an 8-leg Same Game Parlay that uses the new YourWay parlay builder at FanDuel. I only got access to this on Thursday and find it to be a very cool and robust way to build parlays for games and wanted to give it a shot for the first game this weekend. If you don’t have a FanDuel account with access to YourWay bets, then just follow the lead that I’m favoring the Chiefs to win with DeAndre Hopkins playing well.
Patrick Mahomes 1+ Passing Touchdown – Patrick Mahomes gave the Chiefs an injury scare Sunday, but his high-ankle sprain is reportedly a mild one and he is expected to play in this game Saturday. If he’s healthy enough to play, he’s healthy enough to trust to throw a touchdown against a Houston defense that has allowed 27 of them this year, tied for the most in the league.
Noah Gray Less Than 50 Receiving Yards – The Texans have allowed the fourth-fewest receiving yards to tight ends this season. Look for Mahomes to target his favorite vets more in this game, and wide receivers are the real damage makers against the Houston secondary this season. We’ll put Gray under 50 yards as an alternate line.
Xavier Worthy 35+ Receiving Yards – The rookie has his issues, but he’s also earning the trust of Mahomes with at least 41 receiving yards in each of the last five games. We’ll set the line just below that for him to cross again as Mahomes probably wants to get the ball out quicker than usual this week.
DeAndre Hopkins 50+ Receiving Yards – He has only hit this number once in his last five games, but Hopkins has also dropped a big pass on third-and-long in three straight games. I’m going to trust him to deliver against the team that drafted him into the NFL and to continue the dominance that wideouts have had against the Texans this year.
Joe Mixon Less Than 81 Rushing Yards – Talk about an all-or-nothing season for Joe Mixon. He has seven games with 100-plus rushing yards and four games where he didn’t reach 50 yards, including three games where he was held to 25 yards or less. He’s been good on the road this year, but the Chiefs have stonewalled almost every running back they’ve faced this season. I don’t see a big game coming for Mixon.
Isiah Pacheco 35+ Rushing Yards – Let’s hope Andy Reid gets the hint that he needs to call more runs to limit the hits on Mahomes. Isiah Pacheco had only 32 yards in Cleveland, but let’s give him at least 35 in this game as the Chiefs need to be physical to slow down that pass rush.
Kareem Hunt 15+ Rushing Yards – Since Pacheco’s return, Kareem Hunt has taken a backseat to the lead back in this offense, rushing for 45, 16, and 15 yards in the last three games. But as we expect more runs this week to help Mahomes, we’ll confidently add Hunt getting at least 15 yards again.
Chiefs ML – Finally, we’re still backing the Chiefs to win this game as they are a 3.5-point home favorite and obviously in the hunt for that No. 1 seed. Houston is an unfamiliar opponent the Chiefs haven’t seen since 2022, but they have issues up front too in protecting C.J. Stroud, and expect Steve Spagnuolo to blitz him frequently with looks he’s never seen in his first game against the Chiefs.
I also believe Mahomes cherishes these moments playing through injury, and he’ll be better than he was in Cleveland as the Chiefs get the win to move to 14-1.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Patrick Mahomes 1+ Passing Touchdown & Noah Gray Less Than 50 Receiving Yards & Xavier Worthy 35+ Receiving Yards & DeAndre Hopkins 50+ Receiving Yards & Joe Mixon Less Than 81 Rushing Yards & Isiah Pacheco 35+ Rushing Yards & Kareem Hunt 15+ Rushing Yards & Chiefs ML (+1371 at FanDuel)
Related Articles:
- Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 15
- Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 14
- Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 13
- Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 13 Thanksgiving and Black Friday Special
- Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 12
- Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 11
- Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 10
- Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 9
- Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 8
- Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 7
- Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 6
- Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 5
- Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 4
- Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 3
- Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 2
- Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 1
- 2024 NFL Season Picks: Super Bowl LIX, Playoff Teams, and Award Winners