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2024 AFC Divisional Round Preview: Kansas City’s Three-peat Is on the Line and the Epic MVP Showdown in Buffalo

The NFL divisional round looks solid on the NFC side, but let’s be honest. The real attractions are coming from the AFC to start and end the weekend. Kansas City’s three-peat is on the line against the Houston Texans, and we’re getting that MVP showdown between Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen in Buffalo.

Both games are rematches, and so far this postseason, the team who won the last matchup is 3-1. The Chiefs and Ravens are both favored, which would lead to a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship Game and the opening game from Week 1 of the 2024 season.

But the Texans and Bills are going to have something to say about that. We have plenty to say about both games with this much history and legacy building on the line for the top three quarterbacks in the NFL. Let’s get to it.

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5, O/U 41.5)

The No. 4 Houston Texans (11-7) will take on the No. 1 Kansas City Chiefs (15-2) this Saturday afternoon at Arrowhead. The game really can’t come any sooner for the Chiefs, who haven’t played their starters since Christmas, a point we’re going to hammer here as it’s one of the biggest question marks going into the game.

The Texans were in this exact spot a year ago, and they lost 34-10 to the top-seeded Ravens. But C.J. Stroud and DeMeco Ryans got the pass for being rookies. Can some experience and a better defense produce the upset of the postseason?

The Last Matchup

2024, Week 16: Chiefs 27, Texans 19

A big advantage for the Chiefs is they just played this team four weeks ago and played them well. That was the Saturday game where Patrick Mahomes was questionable with a high-ankle sprain, and some of us thought they should start Carson Wentz. Well, he only scrambled for a long first down and a touchdown on the opening drive, proving he’s going to be just fine.

But that game was one of the best performances by Kansas City’s offense all season. They scored 27 points on nine drives and Kareem Hunt even pulled up on a late touchdown run if he wanted it to end the game. Hollywood Brown made his season debut, and the Chiefs weren’t shy about easing him in as he caught 5-of-8 targets for 45 yards.

The Texans will have to get better play from Stroud, who threw two interceptions in that game. He also passed for 98 yards and a long touchdown to Tank Dell, who severely injured his knee on the play and will be out for a long time. The Texans need to get more out of Nico Collins after he had 60 yards on 10 targets in Week 16.

But both teams were 7-of-13 on third down, and the Texans were within one score for the entire 60 minutes. Win the turnover battle this time and things could go the other way for Houston.

Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs
(Photo by Peter G. Aiken/Getty Images)

Injury Watch

The Chiefs should be as healthy as possible after having so much rest. That’s great news for Chris Jones’ calf injury and Mahomes’ ankle. Also big for older players like Travis Kelce and Kareem Hunt.

One player to keep an eye on is corner Jaylen Watson. He’s been out since the San Francisco game with an injury, and the defense played its worst games in the last two years without him. He’s been a full participant in practice this week, and while that doesn’t guarantee he’s going to start Saturday, it’s looking good that they can have him back for the playoff run. A big boost to pair him with Trent McDuffie again.

We already mentioned that Tank Dell is out for the Texans this time, but a player they should have back who didn’t play in Week 16 is linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair. He was suspended for the dirty hit he had on Trevor Lawrence. He has a knee injury this week but is expected to play as a key member of that defense.

Stats to Know

Here are some relevant and informative statistics for these teams heading into this matchup:

  • The Chiefs have won 16 straight games decided by one score, an NFL record.
  • The Chiefs join the Bills and Lions as the only teams who have not blown a fourth-quarter lead this season. Houston has already blown four leads.
  • The Chiefs are 11-0 in close games this season, including a 7-0 record at game-winning drive opportunities.
  • The Chiefs have only won one of their last nine playoff games by more than 8 points.
  • The Chiefs are 0-6-1 ATS and 6-1 SU in their last seven games as a favorite of 7+ points.
  • The Texans are 2-7 when allowing more than 20 points.
  • The Texans allowed a season-high 25 first downs against the Chiefs in Week 16, then allowed 25 first downs to the Ravens four days later.
  • While takeaways are big for the Texans, they are still only 3-3 when they force at least 3 turnovers in a game.
  • Houston is one of the worst red-zone teams on both sides of the ball, ranked 26th on offense and 27th on defense.
  • Since 2013, Andy Reid is 13-4 SU after a bye week (10-1 with Patrick Mahomes).
  • The Chiefs average the most plays and time of possession per drive this season on offense.
  • The Chiefs have not lost at home since Christmas 2023 against the Raiders.
  • The Chiefs are 6-0 in divisional-round games with Mahomes.
  • Since 2018, the Chiefs are 4-1 in the playoffs against teams they already beat in the regular season.

The Keys to Victory

Are the Chiefs going to be rusty? We’ll look at the impact of resting with a bye week. Also, are pressure and turnovers the sole path to victory for Houston?

Chiefs – Rest or Rust?

After the Chiefs played on Christmas and won 29-10 in Pittsburgh with arguably their most well-rounded performance of the season, they clinched the No. 1 seed. That meant when it came time to play the Broncos in Week 18, they could rest everyone important, including Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Chris Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, Hollywood Brown, Trent McDuffie, Nick Bolton, Isiah Pacheco, George Karlaftis, Jawaan Taylor, etc.

None of those guys played in Denver. Then the team had their bye week, and now they’ll finally play a game this Saturday, which is 24 days from Christmas. That’s a huge amount of rest. The Chiefs needed some with an early bye (Week 6) and the way the NFL made them play three games 10 days apart culminating with Christmas, but that’s still a record amount of rest for starters.

Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce
(Photo by William Purnell/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

We have seen a few teams go three weeks between their main starters playing a game in the playoffs, but since the Chiefs had to play on that Wednesday, it extends further to 24 days.

Are the Chiefs going to come out rusty? Would it have been better to give Mahomes and his new receiver and tackle some snaps for a drive or two in Denver to stay sharp? Does any of this matter? Let’s look at some data.

First, let’s acknowledge some big differences in resting for the playoffs. In 2023, the Chiefs held out Mahomes, Kelce, and some key starters in Week 18 against the Chargers. But they were the No. 3 seed, so they had to play the wild card game a week later. That meant 13 days between games for Mahomes and company, which is pretty normal. The Eagles and Rams just did that in Week 18 too.

But it’s different when you’re getting a first-round bye and you still blow off that regular-season finale. That’s like a double-bye. From 2002 to 2023, there were 80 teams who had a first-round bye. Keep in mind it was in 2020 when the NFL switched to only one bye per conference.

I looked at those 80 teams and broke them into three groups:

No Rest – These teams played all their healthy starters for effectively the whole game or at least into the third quarter of the finale. Think Lions vs. Vikings this year to end the regular season.

Semi-Rest – These teams kind of half-assed it by playing their main quarterback and some key starters in the finale, but they pulled them early in the game. Maybe they played a drive, a quarter, or a half at most. Anyone nursing an injury was held out. This is basically what Houston did this year with Stroud, Mixon, and Collins playing 11 snaps. It’s what first-round bye teams of the past did like the 2005/2007 Colts, 2014 Patriots, 2015 Cardinals, 2016 Cowboys, and 2021 Packers.

Full Rest – These teams embraced the double bye and rested a lot of key starters in the last game. The 49ers and Ravens both did it in 2023. The 2011 Packers were another classic example of giving MVP Aaron Rodgers 21 days off before his next game. The Steelers and Eagles also both did it in 2004. None of them were destroyed 38-0 by the Broncos like Kansas City’s backups were this year, and the Steelers even beat Buffalo, but these teams passed on trying to play their best players in the last game.

It cannot be overstated that we are dealing in small sample sizes, but I still think the numbers are interesting. Let’s look at how these three groups fared with their playoff record, how many won the Super Bowl, how many went one-and-done, and their record against the spread and average halftime margin in that divisional round game.

Type Teams PO Rec. SB Wins One & done DIV ATS DIV Rec. HT Mg
No Rest 49 70-39 (.642) 10 (20.4%) 11 (22.4%) 27-22 (.551) 38-11 (.776) +5.96
Semi-Rest 20 19-18 (.514) 2 (10.0%) 9 (45.0%) 6-14 (.300) 11-9 (.550) +2.25
Full Rest 11 12-10 (.545) 1 (9.1%) 4 (36.4%) 3-8 (.273) 7-4 (.636) +0.64

The teams who didn’t rest have better playoff records, won double the rate of Super Bowls and were less likely to go one-and-done in that first playoff game in the divisional round. The teams who didn’t rest also covered the spread over 55% of the time compared to 30% or 27.3% for the teams who flirted with resting.

But the other telling stat for me was the halftime scoring margin in that first playoff game where the “rust” angle should be at its most significant. Teams who didn’t rest had an average halftime lead of almost 6 points while it was +2.25 for the semi-rest teams and a tiny +0.64 for the full-rest teams.

Again, not the largest sample sizes around, but NFL seasons do have their ebb and flow, and shutting things down for a few weeks while your opponent is in battle mode could lead to some unexpected results when you try to flip the switch. Just consider some of these teams:

  • The 2005 Colts basically blew off their last two regular-season games, then found themselves quickly down 14-0 in the first quarter to the Steelers before trying to mount an all-time memorable comeback. The Steelers were the first No. 6 seed to beat the No. 1 seed.
  • Bill Belichick’s New England teams rarely ever rested, but he did the semi-rest thing in Week 17 in 2014, then found his team down 14 points multiple times against the Ravens before rallying to win 35-31.
  • The 2011 Packers were 15-1, but they never led the Giants once as an 8-point favorite before losing 37-20 in a shocking upset.
  • The 2018 Saints blew off Week 17 before trailing 14-0 to Nick Foles’ Eagles in the game’s first 10 minutes before rallying to win 20-14.
  • The 2019 Ravens rested Lamar Jackson and key starters in Week 17, then were down 14-0 to the Titans and panicked, losing 28-12 in one of the biggest upsets in playoff history.
  • Last year, both No. 1 seeds had sluggish first halves with the Ravens in a 10-10 tie with Houston and the 49ers only led Green Bay 7-6.

Chiefs fans are going to say they are best equipped to handle this, and maybe they’re right because they have Mahomes and a coach who is very successful with bye weeks. It’s also a fact that the 2020 Chiefs rested some starters, played the Browns three weeks later, and they were up 19-3 at halftime before Mahomes left the game injured in the third quarter.

But it’s also true that the 2024 Chiefs leaned in heavier than any of these teams into resting starters, and they played worse than any of them with that pathetic performance in Denver.

This is a historically long break for a team that is still working in new parts where rust could be even more real than usual:

  • If the Chiefs start D.J. Humphries at left tackle, he’s only played 60 snaps with Mahomes this year, and it didn’t go well against the Chargers.
  • Players like DeAndre Hopkins and Hollywood Brown have never played a playoff game with the Chiefs or won a Super Bowl elsewhere, so this is a new level of important games for them.
  • The Chiefs have been relying more on rookie Xavier Worthy in recent weeks, and this will be his playoff debut.
  • If Jaylen Watson returns at corner, he’s been out of action since October 20 and could have the best excuse of anyone to be rusty.

Again, a couple of quarters into the game, this becomes a moot point as the team is engaged in playoff action. But if the Chiefs come out playing terrible football with dropped passes, penalties, and other things they have a history of doing, then a quick 14-0 lead by Houston could put them in a hole they aren’t as well equipped to handle.

This isn’t the 2019 team anymore, who fell behind 24-0 in the divisional round against Houston before rallying to score 51 points and win the game by 20. Those days are over. These Chiefs have less margin for error, and in fact, they have the smallest margin of error for any 15-win team in NFL history.

But if the Texans play in the first half the way they did against the Chargers last week, then the Chiefs should be absolutely fine. It’s just the turnovers they need to worry about.

Texans – Pressure and Turnovers

Look, when you take away Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell with injuries, this should not be that hard on defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to find a way to key in on Nico Collins and force Stroud to get the ball elsewhere. The Texans do not have an offensive line good enough to dominate one of the best rush defenses in the league either. Stroud has not been good enough in situational play to expect him to hog the ball and keep Mahomes on the sidelines.

That’s why Houston’s clearest path to victory is for the defense to cause havoc and get takeaways like they did against the Chargers last week. They intercepted Justin Herbert four times, a career-high, and he only had three picks all year. We’ve seen them intercept Jared Goff five times in a game too before losing, and we also watched this pressure defense force Josh Allen into a game where he completed 9-of-30 passes.

C.J. Stroud of the Houston Texans
(Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)

The bad news for Houston is that all of those games were at home. They’ll be on the road this time where they’ve already lost, and they’ve also lost 34-7 in Minnesota and gave up a huge half to Aaron Rodgers too. If you can block this defensive front, you can pick apart their secondary.

Turnovers are the great equalizer, however. The Chiefs struggled with ball protection earlier this season, but they actually finished the season with a 7-game streak without a giveaway, tying the 2010 Patriots for the longest streak in NFL history. That New England team is actually infamous for Tom Brady throwing a pick on the first drive of the playoff loss against the Jets, a shocking upset where that play set the tone for the day.

So, the Chiefs are either going to set a record or turn the ball over in this game. They can easily survive one giveaway and maybe even two as they have plenty of experience at doing that. They’re 3-1 this year with multiple giveaways but it’s still not recommended to try. Giving Stroud short fields is exactly what he needs, so securing the ball needs to be of high importance.

As for the pass pressure, you saw how the Chargers were getting destroyed by the Texans up front once the picks started coming. Once Houston had confidence in winning the game, Herbert had no chance. The Chiefs could argue their fatal flaw this year is the offensive tackle positions, because not only do they struggle in protection, but they draw a ton of costly penalties like offensive holding that kill drives.

But the Chiefs might have the answer for this by throwing the ball faster. Mahomes’ average time to throw in Week 16 against Houston was 2.50 seconds, his fastest of the season. Days later in Pittsburgh, he got that number down to 2.34 seconds, so his two fastest games are his last two, and the offense looked as good as it has all year. That’s where having Hollywood Brown playing can be helpful as a veteran Mahomes can get the ball too quickly.

Not surprisingly, Mahomes’ only loss this year was in Buffalo where he held the ball for 3.35 seconds on average according to NFL Pro. That’s been the trend for years on Mahomes. If he gets the ball out in under 2.9 seconds, he’s almost impossible to beat. Making him hold it longer is the key to beating him. If he gets it out quickly again against Houston, the Chiefs should be okay.

But Stroud is going to have to prove he can string together some drives. In his two playoff wins in the wild card round, his defense has supplied him with three interception return touchdowns. Throw in a punt return touchdown in Baltimore last year as the team’s only touchdown in that game, and he’s already had four return touchdowns in three playoff games. Mahomes has one in 18 playoff games.

Stroud has yet to win a playoff game where his team allowed more than 3 net points. The Chiefs can’t make it easy on him with mistakes, but that’s what the Houston defense must try to force if they want any shot of winning this game.

Best Bets and Prediction

If the Chiefs keep making the playoffs every year, it’s almost a statistical certainty that there will be a year where they lose their first playoff game instead of reaching the AFC Championship Game again. Even Tom Brady had his first one-and-done postseason in his seventh postseason, and that was after he fell behind 24-0 in the first quarter against the 2009 Ravens, a game where he turned it over three times early.

This is Mahomes’ seventh postseason, and it’s arguably the most important one with the three-peat and the immortality that comes with that on the line. The Texans are still probably a far more ideal opponent than facing the Chargers or Broncos for a third time, division teams who know how to play the Chiefs and keep the score down. You’d rather play the Houston team who allowed as many points as it scored this season and that you already beat a month ago.

But the 2024 Chiefs rarely make it easy, and it would be surprising if this game was a blowout. I expect the Chiefs to prevail in the end, but taking the Texans with the points is probably the best bet you could make here. The Chiefs have made a habit of winning the game and not covering, but they don’t ask that you cover the spread to advance to your seventh-straight AFC Championship Game. But we’d probably be talking differently about this one if the Texans still had Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell to go with Collins.

Still, I would warn any Chiefs fan against taking this game for granted. Should the Chiefs lose in an upset, that just makes the stakes in Ravens-Bills even higher on Sunday as the winner will be favored to reach the Super Bowl and quite possibly win it.

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (+1.5, O/U 51.5)

The No. 3 Baltimore Ravens (13-5) will take on the No. 2 Buffalo Bills (14-4) this Sunday evening in Buffalo. The Bills opened as a 1-point favorite but the line has quickly moved in favor of the Ravens, which would be the first time in 18 playoff games since the merger that Buffalo was not a home favorite.

Guess you can add that to the list of grievances Bills fans have as they feel their team has been disrespected for awards and individual honors this year, starting with MVP between Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson.

But the Ravens come in hot with the duo of Jackson and Derrick Henry having a very successful playoff debut against Pittsburgh. They want to continue their playoff revenge tour by taking out the Bills, who beat Jackson in a 17-3 game in 2020 in their only playoff meeting.

There’s a lot on the line here, but with freezing temperatures expected, don’t be surprised if the MVP quarterback hype doesn’t decide this game. It rarely does in NFL history in games like this.

The Last Matchup

2024, Week 4: Ravens 35, Bills 10

The Ravens probably wouldn’t be favored this week if Week 4 didn’t happen. But everyone watched the Ravens crush Buffalo by 25 points on Sunday Night Football, something that’s only happened three times total since 2019. The first time Allen ever lost a game by 25-plus points was against Henry and Tennessee in 2020.

Henry was the MVP in Week 4 when he rushed for 199 yards, including an 87-yard touchdown run on Baltimore’s first snap from scrimmage, which set the tone for the night. Jackson was efficient with 13-of-18 passing for 156 yards, 2 touchdowns (one to Henry), and 54 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown.

Allen had a very quiet and ineffective game with 180 passing yards before he was benched with the score lopsided. The Ravens sacked Allen three times, his only game this year with that many sacks taken. A disastrous trick play in the third quarter of a 21-10 game led to a sack and basically crushed any hope of a Buffalo comeback.

Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens
(Photo by Courtney Culbreath/Getty Images)

Injury Watch

The big injury to watch continues to be wide receiver Zay Flowers for Baltimore. He missed the Pittsburgh game, he didn’t practice Wednesday, and it’s not sounding great for his availability Sunday with that knee injury he suffered in Week 18.

We said the Ravens have been dominant without Flowers doing much in games this year, and he even had just 10 yards in the Buffalo win. But we’ll get into later why his absence could be much more significant this week than it was last week against the Steelers.

The Bills should have some defenders back they didn’t have in Week 4 like Taron Johnson, Terrel Bernard, and Matt Milano. That should help. They also acquired wide receiver Amari Cooper in a trade after the Baltimore game, but he hasn’t been a huge part of the passing game this year.

Stats to Know

Here are some useful and informative statistics for these teams heading into this matchup:

  • Small road favorites (1-2 points) in the playoffs are only 6-10 ATS and SU. The under is 9-2 in such games since 1980.
  • The Ravens and Bills both have a +157 scoring differential, tied for the third best this season.
  • The Bills rank No. 1 in average starting field position on offense while the Ravens are No. 31.
  • The Bills have matched an NFL record with just 8 giveaways in any 18-game span.
  • The Bills are +14 in fumble recoveries, tied for the second best among all teams since 2000.
  • Josh Allen is the only Buffalo player to lose a fumble this season.
  • The Bills have lost in the divisional round at home the last two seasons against Cincinnati (27-10) and Kansas City (27-24).
  • The Ravens are 13-0 when they score at least 28 points and 0-5 when they don’t this season.
  • The Ravens have the No. 1 scoring defense since Week 11.
  • The Ravens (74.2%) and Bills (71.6%) are the two best offenses at scoring touchdowns in the red zone this season.
  • Best scoring differential in NFL history against playoff teams (regular season only): 2007 Patriots (+118), 2023 Ravens (+114), and 2024 Ravens (+112).
  • The 2020 Chiefs are the only team to sweep Sean McDermott’s Bills in the playoffs.

The Keys to Victory

This is going to sound boring, but it’s the truth. The keys to victory in this game are ball security, running the ball, and playing great defense. The team who tries to use this game as an MVP statement for their quarterback is likely going to lose.

The last time these teams met in the playoffs in 2020, the game had an over/under 49.5 points and ended 17-3. That’s just the second playoff game in NFL history to finish with 20 or fewer points despite a total over 46 points. People blame the wind for that, but it’s not like this Sunday’s forecast sounds promising for great offensive conditions.

This is going to come down to the fundamentals.

Ravens Must Feed Derrick Henry and Avoid the MVP Trap

If we can go back five months to the preseason, I already laid out why the Ravens flop in the postseason and what they must do differently this year.

First, they change who they are in the playoffs as if they feel the need to justify Lamar Jackson’s MVPs by relying on his arm instead of playing the way they usually do in the regular season with running the ball and elite defense. If they get behind just a little, they panic and abandon the run like they did against Kansas City when the backs got six carries last year.

Granted, this season Jackson has shown growth as a passer, but he’s still leading the No. 1 rushing offense, and the defense has really turned it around in the second half of the season. Lean on being that team again. They did a good job of it against the Steelers last week when Lamar kept running the ball, they used their tight ends to make up for the lack of Zay Flowers, and Henry was dominant.

But my blueprint for the Ravens to following 2024 was built on what they’d do against the Chiefs in January, a situation that could come to pass next week if both win this weekend. I said for the Week 1 game that it would be a mistake to rely heavily on Henry rushing for 150-plus yards, because you’re unlikely to do that again in a must-win playoff rematch.

As fate would have it, Henry was held to a season-low 46 rushing yards in Kansas City in his team debut in Week 1. Jackson tried to do it himself and almost pulled it off at the end before Likely’s foot was out of bounds. So, the Ravens are set up fine for a playoff game with the Chiefs.

But they did what I said they shouldn’t against Buffalo in Week 4. Henry was the stud in that game with 199 yards, his season high. I think that’s going to make it harder for him to do it again this week as Buffalo should absolutely play more base defense and gear up to stop the run if Flowers can’t go at wide receiver. Make Lamar beat you with his arm.

Don’t fall for the trap, Baltimore. Stay patient with the run and keep feeding Henry. No one in their right mind is going to care if the Ravens wins this game and Henry is the star again like he was in Week 4, or if Jackson doesn’t pass for 200 yards. Neither quarterback did in Week 4, and that could easily happen again here.

Based on research we touched on last night for Rams-Eagles, it is reasonable to think the Ravens can have a lot of rushing success again. Maybe not 199 yards from Henry again, but we did just see him rush for 186 yards against the Steelers weeks after he had 162 yards against them.

We’ve only seen Buffalo’s starters in two rematches this year against the Jets and Dolphins, two non-playoff teams. But the Jets rushed for 121 and 112 yards despite getting blown away in the rematch. The Dolphins rushed for 139 and 149 yards in their games, two of their best rushing efforts this year. The Bills are not an elite rush defense but they did hold the Lions to a season-low 48 yards in Detroit. That game is their claim to fame, but don’t look at the passing defense that day.

But the Ravens are fools if they go pass happy in this matchup. Play the smash-mouth style, tell Lamar there’s no next week if they lose, so he has the green light to take off all day. Utilize the tight end duo.

This is not the week to worry about passing yards or justifying a third MVP. If the Ravens lose this game and Jackson plays poorly again, he’ll never sniff another one of those awards. But if the Ravens want to go to the Super Bowl, they need to let Jackson and Henry run wild together in this matchup.

Bills: Let James Cook

For Buffalo, the strategy should be quite similar to Baltimore. You have a great offensive line, you have a very productive trio of running backs led by James Cook, and your quarterback can get the job done on runs by design or scrambles. Lean into that in these elements and don’t put it all on Allen trying to make throw after throw against a defense that is playing better than the one he already was ineffective against in Week 4.

We already saw some of this last week when the Bills rushed for 210 yards (120 by Cook) against Denver with a lot of those yards coming early. Then Allen took over in the second half with some big plays, including a brilliant touchdown catch in the end zone by Ty Johnson on a 4th-and-1. The Bills do a great job of getting their backs deep down the field on mismatches this year.

In fact, Allen and Jackson have both been among the best this year at throwing to their backfield targets as they rank No. 1 and No. 3 in EPA/dropback on such plays according to NFL Pro. The Ravens have basically turned Justice Hill into their version of Austin Ekeler.

But if you’re the Bills, you have to make sure you’re taking extra care of the ball in this weather. It’s not so much the interceptions as Allen has rarely thrown those in the playoffs, but it’s fumbling the ball. The Bills have lost two fumbles in 18 games and both were plays by Allen. That means not a single other skill player or return specialist or anyone else on the team has lost a fumble. That sounds ripe for regression, and freezing cold weather meeting a hard-hitting, physical team like Baltimore could help end that streak for the Bills.

Like with Jackson and Henry, this isn’t the game where you need to let Allen throw for 300 yards to justify any All-Pro or MVP argument you had for him. If Cook and the backs are the stars like they already have been in several Buffalo wins this year, then so be it. Let Allen be the star in Kansas City or the Super Bowl. This matchup requires more of an old-school football approach where this line, these backs, and his legs should be very useful.

Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills
(Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)

Best Bets and Prediction

This is the sixth playoff appearance for each team since they drafted these quarterbacks in 2018. It is getting redundant to say “this is the year” for both of them, but they are still waiting for that elusive Super Bowl appearance, and maybe this is the year. There is clearly pressure on both this weekend to win and only one will.

But I think you have to say there is more pressure on Allen being at home. You can’t go 0-3 in the divisional round at home the last three years, losing to Joe Burrow, Mahomes, and now Jackson, your main peer rivals. That would be a really bad look on top of having no MVP awards (not yet anyway), first-team All-Pro selections, or Super Bowl appearances in seven seasons as a starter.

At the same time, it’s just hard to believe this will be a quarterback virtuoso game like Allen had with Mahomes in the 2021 AFC divisional round, the 13 Seconds Game. That’s a dream quarterback duel. Almost a one-of-a-kind playoff game.

These big quarterback duels in the postseason? They rarely live up to the hype. Just look at past Super Bowls between Joe Montana and Dan Marino (or John Elway), Elway and Brett Favre, or Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady. The better defense (and/or running game) tends to win and dominate the other quarterback.

Peyton Manning and Tom Brady almost never played a true shootout despite 17 career meetings. It was usually Brady’s team taking a big lead, Manning making a comeback, and sometimes he’d win it. But they met five times in the playoffs and the quarterback with homefield advantage won every time.

For that matter, just look at the four meetings between Lamar and Josh as starters:

  • 2019 (Ravens win 24-17): Neither quarterback threw for 150 yards (Allen: 17-of-39 for 146 yards and 6 sacks), but it was before Allen’s breakout season.
  • 2020 (Bills win 17-3): In the biggest win of Allen’s career, he led his offense to 10 points as Jackson threw a pick-six and was knocked out with a concussion.
  • 2022 (Bills win 23-20): Ravens blew a 20-3 lead and Jackson (144 passing yards) threw two bad interceptions in the fourth quarter.
  • 2024 (Ravens win 35-10): Henry delivered the early knockout in a game where Jackson was efficient and Allen was impotent.

I would love to be wrong and watch a great quarterback duel with lead changes and high drama this Sunday evening. But I think it’ll come down to things like fumble recoveries, sacks, who avoids the drive-killing holding penalties and drops, and which team runs the ball better. Likely with their quarterbacks doing some of the running, but Henry or Cook could be the star of the game just as easily as Allen or Jackson this week.

I lean towards Buffalo at home with the better offensive line, the Flowers injury, and the expectations that Baltimore could get antsy if they fall behind by 7-to-10 points. But the Bills falling at home again with a bad ball security game and getting run over by Henry also sounds just as feasible at this point.

But for all the understandable hype coming with this game, it doesn’t mean that much if the Chiefs take care of business and return to the Super Bowl. They’re still the ultimate test in the AFC but losing to Houston at home while seeing the Bills or Ravens go to the Super Bowl would definitely knock some shine off the dynasty.

Huge weekend ahead.

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