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2025 AFC Wild Card Preview: Without the Chiefs and Ravens, Things Feel Wide Open This Year

Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar08/01/2026 - 02:00 pm

The NFL had gone seven straight seasons where the Kansas City Chiefs were always in the AFC Championship Game, and they won it five times. But someone new is going to take over in 2025, and while the Baltimore Ravens were a preseason favorite for the Super Bowl, we know it’s not going to be them either. Rest now, John Harbaugh, we’ll see you in Valhalla.

We still have Jim Harbaugh and the Los Angeles Chargers in the playoffs with consecutive 11-6 seasons, but they weren’t able to capitalize on their sweep of the Chiefs to win the AFC West and finish on top of the conference.

That leaves the Buffalo Bills out of the usual suspects in the AFC, and they were the preseason favorite to earn the No. 1 seed and say goodbye to Highmark Stadium in style thanks to a favorable schedule. But they lost some bad games, and it ended up being the New England Patriots who made use of their last-place schedule to win the AFC East, ending Buffalo’s five-year reign at the top of the division.

But the Patriots also lost Week 1 to the lowly Raiders, so the Denver Broncos ended up being the 14-3 team that earned the No. 1 seed, another tip in the cap for Sean Payton, who ended Kansas City’s reign in the AFC West. But he also lost a home game to the Jacksonville Jaguars, who enter the playoffs red hot on an eight-game winning streak behind the best ball of Trevor Lawrence’s career thanks to rookie coach Liam Coen, our preseason pick for Coach of the Year.

However, the reason the Jaguars aren’t 14-3 and on a 9-game winning streak is because they blew a 19-point fourth-quarter lead to Davis Mills and the Houston Texans, who have ridden their No. 1 defense to a 9-game winning streak to help the 2025 AFC become the first conference in NFL history to have five teams with at least 12 wins.

But the last team to qualify in the final game of the 2025 season was the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7), who closed the Mike Tomlin vs. John Harbaugh era of this great rivalry with a stunning win over the Ravens on Sunday night to win the AFC North for the first time since 2020.

It’s technically the same AFC playoff field from 2024 with the Jaguars and Patriots, coming off 4-13 seasons, replacing the Chiefs and Ravens, but it sure feels a lot different, right?

Speaking of different, every AFC wild card game is a new matchup we haven’t seen all year: Bills at Jaguars, Chargers at Patriots, Texans at Steelers. We already previewed the NFC side, so let’s do the same for each AFC wild card game.

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5, O/U 51.5)

The No. 6 Buffalo Bills (12-5) will take on the No. 3 Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4) this Sunday afternoon in Jacksonville. What a game to kick things off in the AFC playoffs this year. You could easily make a case for either team to go the distance. The Bills have the pedigree and experience over the AFC playoff field, but the Jaguars have been playing as well as anyone since their bye and have already won at Denver recently.

These teams are also the poster-boys for the turnover regression we predicted for the 2025 season:

  • Buffalo went from +24 in turnover differential in 2024 to just +1 in 2025, finishing 15th in giveaways and 15th in takeaways (average as it gets).
  • The Bills went from +14 in fumble recoveries (+17 including playoffs last year) to minus-2 this year.
  • The Bills turned the ball over 12 times in five losses this year after 8 giveaways in all 21 games played in 2024.
  • The Jaguars had positive turnover regression on defense, going from a league-low 9 takeaways in 2024 to 31 takeaways, the second most in 2025.

It’s a shame we’ll lose one of these teams on Sunday, but someone has to go.

The Last Matchup

2024, Week 3: Bills 47, Jaguars 10

In a September 2024 game that was easily forgotten because it was a blowout during a Monday night doubleheader, the Bills crushed the Jaguars 47-10. Josh Allen threw four touchdowns over the game’s first five drives before taking a seat on the bench.

On the plus side, Trevor Lawrence and the Jags did win the previous two meetings with Allen and the Bills, including that all-time bizarre 9-6 win in 2021 when Urban Meyer was the head coach. Allen had a meltdown game largely at the hands of defender Josh Allen, who later changed his name to Josh Allen-Hines. That’s the last time the Bills played in Jacksonville.

The teams also met in London in 2023, another game where Lawrence got the 25-20 win by throwing for 315 yards and Travis Etienne rushed for 136 yards and two touchdowns.

But the Bills are a different team than these games, and the Jaguars are certainly a better team now under Coen.

Injury Watch

The Jaguars come into the game healthier than the Bills. We’ll see if guard Patrick Mekari can get back on the field for the Jaguars; he hasn’t played since the Denver win.

The Bills have Josh Allen’s foot injury that he suffered taking a sack against Cleveland two weeks ago, but it’s not something he’s going to miss any time for. More pressing is the Wednesday injury report for the defense where linebacker Terrel Bernard (calf), corner Maxwell Hairston (ankle), and linebacker Matt Milano (illness) all didn’t practice. The Bills are used to having defensive injuries in January, but it’d be nice for a change if that wasn’t the case. We’ll see if they can get these guys back in time for Sunday.

Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills
(Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)

Wide receiver Josh Palmer also has been missing practice, though they don’t really use him in the passing game anyway. Kicker Matt Prater has a quad injury, and the Bills are lacking a healthy, serious kicker right now, so that could spell trouble this weekend.

Stats to Know

Here are some relevant and informative statistics for these teams heading into this matchup:

  • In the Josh Allen era, the Bills are 0-4 in road playoff games (0-3 at Kansas City).
  • Sean McDermott’s defense has not allowed more than 27 points in any playoff game except for the three played at Kansas City.
  • Over the last 10 games, the Jaguars lead the NFL in scoring differential (+147) while the Bills (+55) are No. 8.
  • The Jaguars have scored at least 23 points in 10 straight games; only the Patriots (14) have a longer active streak.
  • The Jaguars are 12-5 ATS, tied with Seattle and the Rams for the best spread record in 2025.
  • The Jaguars have outperformed the spread by an average of +6.7 points, trailing only the Seahawks (+7.1)
  • Buffalo is 8-9 ATS this year, including a 4-4 ATS record as a road favorite.
  • The Jaguars are 3-1 ATS as a home underdog, including an outright win over the Chiefs.
  • The Bills are 4-4 at game-winning drive opportunities and 8-4 in close games.
  • The Jaguars are 5-3 at game-winning drive opportunities and 6-3 in close games.
  • The Bills have 7 saves on defense (upholding a one-score lead in the fourth quarter/overtime) and zero blown leads, the best ratio in the NFL this year.
  • The Jaguars have 6 saves and 2 blown leads.
  • The Jaguars are slightly below average on third down on offense (19th) and defense (20th).
  • The Jaguars have reached the red zone 68 times, trailing only the Rams (76). Buffalo has been there 65 times and has the third-highest touchdown rate (66.2%).
  • The Jaguars are 5-3 against 2025 playoff teams, only trailing the Seahawks (6-2) and Broncos (4-2) in winning percentage in such games. The five wins only trail Seattle in wins. Buffalo is 3-3 against playoff teams.
  • Against teams with a winning record, the Jaguars are 4-3 and the Bills are 2-3.
  • In his only home playoff start against the 2022 Chargers, Trevor Lawrence threw four interceptions before he threw four touchdowns in a 27-point comeback.
  • The Jaguars are 13-1 when they allow fewer than 30 points this year.
  • The Jaguars are 3-3 when they allow at least 280 net passing yards.
  • This season, Josh Allen has 6 road games where he failed to throw for 200 yards, and in the other two road games, he led the offense to 13 and 12 points in losses.
  • Buffalo has the No. 1 rushing offense and Jacksonville has the No. 1 rushing defense by yards.
  • Buffalo running back James Cook won the rushing title with 1,621 yards.
  • The Bills are 0-4 in games Cook and Allen play together where Cook doesn’t gain 100 yards from scrimmage.
  • In half of Jacksonville’s four losses, they held the opponent to 60 rushing yards or less, and the Rams only had 89 yards in a 35-7 rout, so you don’t have to run the ball well to beat them.
  • Despite drafting Travis Hunter and getting Brian Thomas Jr. in his second year, the most efficient pass catchers for Lawrence are tight end Brenton Strange (9.0 yards per target), Parker Washington (8.9), and Jakobi Meyers (7.9).
  • The Jaguars are 8-1 since trading for Meyers.
  • The Bills are 12-0 when scoring at least 23 points and 0-5 when they don’t.
  • The Bills are 3-5 when they don’t rush for at least 150 yards, and the Jaguars have only allowed the Chiefs (158 yards) to surpass 130 rushing yards on them in an outlier game for both teams.
  • The Bills are 8-0 when they don’t turn the ball over this year.
  • The Jaguars are 1-2 when they don’t force a takeaway.
  • The Bills are 4-4 when they allow more than 150 net passing yards as they have allowed the fewest passing yards in the NFL this year.
  • The Bills are 28th in rushing yards allowed and 30th in yards per carry (5.1) against.
  • The Bills have allowed -40 YAC Over Expected, the only defense to allow a negative number per NFL Pro (Jaguars are 24th at +114).
  • Beating Buffalo in 2025 means beating the offense: Buffalo’s had five of its six worst games in offensive EPA in the losses.
  • Coaching Stimulus: Coming into 2025, Trevor Lawrence was 2-25 when he didn’t complete better than 60% of his passes, but he is 4-3 this year, including three straight wins in such games.
  • By the way, those two wins for Lawrence before 2025 were against Buffalo in 2021 (9-6 game) and his only playoff win at home (2022 Chargers).
  • Lawrence had a league-high 45 of his passes dropped and the highest dropped pass rate (8.3%) according to Pro Football Reference.
  • While under pressure, Lawrence throws 24.0% of his passes into tight windows, the second-highest rate in 2025 (source: NFL Pro).

The Fatal Flaw

What is the factor most likely to lead to each team’s downfall this postseason and in this matchup in particular?

Bills – Passing Offense

As crazy as it sounds, the unit that could be Buffalo’s undoing this postseason is the passing offense with Josh Allen. They run the ball great with Cook, but as we showed in the stats above, this offense does not throw the ball much on the road, and Allen has had issues at scoring and producing on the road as we’ve seen in losses to the Falcons, Dolphins, and Texans.

On defense, everyone points to the Bills’ bad run defense, but who is exactly designed to run wild on them in the playoffs? Probably not the Jaguars, who saw Trevor Lawrence lead the team in rushing against the Jets a few weeks ago. The Jaguars are only 27th in yards per carry. It’s impossible to say any team in the playoffs can run the ball better than the Bills already can, so there shouldn’t be a big rushing disparity in any matchup.

The pass defense is also Buffalo’s ticket to finally getting Allen and McDermott to a Super Bowl. There are some injuries as always, but Joey Bosa is healthy, and we’ve seen this defense step up against Patrick Mahomes, they held Jalen Hurts to zero completions in a second half, and they held Drake Maye to a season-low 155 passing yards in the rematch in New England. They can shut down the passing game, and there’s no Mahomes to terrorize them in the playoffs. There’s just Lawrence, Maye, C.J. Stroud, and Bo Nix. Maybe an old Aaron Rodgers, who they destroyed in Pittsburgh already.

But the passing game is scary for a team that’s never won a road playoff game with Allen, who just hasn’t played his best on the road in 2025. It doesn’t help when Josh Palmer’s been a bust with them, Keon Coleman is a healthy scratch, and Dalton Kincaid is often injured. But they rely on screen passes, scheming open the tight ends, and hitting YAC plays to Khalil Shakir and the backs. It’s just not a very reliable passing game, and Allen has taken some absolutely brutal sacks in the last two games.

The season-long results suggest the Bills aren’t going to be able to get through three road playoff games with this passing offense being this limited. But they do have the most accomplished quarterback in his prime in the whole playoff field, and maybe McDermott coaches his ass off after seeing the Ravens fire John Harbaugh this week.

He could be next if the Bills, who are tied for the fifth-best Super Bowl 60 odds (+1000 at FanDuel), go out this weekend.

Jaguars – Really, Him?

We could be talking about rookie coach Liam Coen (“Duuuvaaaaaal”), but we’re actually talking about fifth-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence. He’s had a career year, but is he really ready to go on an Eli Manning/Joe Flacco/Nick Foles type of Super Bowl run and get to one before Allen does? We feel overdue for one of those runs, and he has the pedigree and hot hand, but his history almost makes you feel like you’re waiting on the other shoe to drop here, similar to Sam Darnold in the NFC.

The Jaguars are going to have to slay some good pass defenses, including an elite one from Buffalo this week, to get to the Super Bowl, and they don’t have the steadiest running game, and their receivers have a league-high 45 drops.

You could see them struggling this week and losing the first playoff game. In his only home playoff start, Lawrence threw four interceptions before he threw any touchdowns, and those 2022 Chargers weren’t even a strong defense. Simply put, you never quite know what to expect from him.

But this postseason is certainly an opportunity for him to raise his stock immensely if he can beat Allen and go on a Super Bowl run here.

Best Bets and Prediction

Not a game I’d recommend betting heavily on for the spread or moneyline with such a small spread. As we looked at in Fraud Alert Rating, with spreads this small, usually the team that’s higher in fraud rating (Jaguars in this case) loses the game, but they are the home team too, and Buffalo just hasn’t impressed on the road this year.

That’s why I think the under 51.5 points is the best bet in this game. The Bills don’t dominate the scoreboard on the road, and the Jaguars don’t light it up either because of the passing defense of the Bills. Could see a 27-24 final at the highest end of this matchup, and 23-20 wouldn’t surprise me one bit either. Generally speaking, 51 is a magic number in NFL point totals, so it’s best to get on the under side of that 51.5 or the 52.5 it was at a day ago.

But it should be an exciting game and perhaps the breaking point of the 2025 postseason. I refer to a breaking point as that moment where the Super Bowl champion’s path was largely decided in a coin-flip moment. Last year’s breaking point was when Jalen Carter sacked Matthew Stafford in Philadelphia in the divisional round to prevent a comeback from the Rams and help the Eagles advance to where they blew out the Commanders and Chiefs. But that final drive against the Rams was their breaking point.

This one could have a breaking point as I think both of these teams are capable of winning this AFC with the Bills knowing how to beat New England (and Pittsburgh) and Jacksonville already winning at Denver.

There’s going to be a lot of hype and sentimental value for Allen and the Bills to get over the hump here the one season their biggest obstacle (Chiefs) has finally been cleared, but the Jaguars are a tough first draw. They much rather be going to Pittsburgh this week but they lost out on that No. 5 seed by losing to the Eagles.

Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots (-3.5, O/U 46.5)

The No. 7 Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) will take on the No. 2 New England Patriots (14-3) this Sunday night in New England. We’ll see if Justin Herbert or Drake Maye can get their first NFL playoff win, and it’d be the first for either franchise since the 2018 season.

(Photo by Rich Storry/Getty Images)

We also get a top-tier coaching matchup with two guys who have taken their previous team to the Conference Championship Game in Jim Harbaugh vs. Mike Vrabel. There’s also a top-tier coordinator battle between Jesse Minter’s defense and Josh McDaniels’ offense.

The Last Matchup

2024, Week 17: Chargers 40, Patriots 7

The Chargers used to always struggle in New England, but this is their attempt to win a third-straight game there after unusual wins in 2023-24 against inferior Patriots teams. Justin Herbert and company actually got a 6-0 win in 2023 against Bill Belichick’s team, then last year it was a 40-7 rout in a game where a rookie Drake Maye did little injured (117 yards) while Herbert shredded the defense with 281 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Needless to say, the Chargers have a tougher task this year.

Injury Watch

The Chargers were able to get Justin Herbert (hand) some rest in Week 18 along with players like Ladd McConkey, Derwin James, and Khalil Mack, which is a good thing. Not so good is that running back Omarion Hampton (ankle) could be a longshot to play this Sunday night. He’s battled some injuries during his rookie year.

The Patriots have some illness going around the locker room right now, but they are fairly healthy going into this one. They got defensive tackle Milton Wiliams back on Sunday, so that’s good news for the run defense, especially if they don’t have to worry about facing Hampton.

Stats to Know

Here are some useful and informative statistics for these teams heading into this matchup:

  • The Patriots are 11-5-1 ATS and the Chargers are 8-8-1 ATS.
  • The Patriots are 4-2-1 ATS as a home favorite.
  • The Chargers are 3-1 ATS as an underdog.
  • Patriots coach Mike Vrabel is 0-3 in his last three playoff games with the Titans.
  • The Chargers are 5-0 in prime time, and the Patriots are 4-0 in prime time, including both of Drake Maye’s game-winning drives coming on Sunday Night Football (Bills, Ravens).
  • The Patriots are the first team in NFL history to play 14 games against teams with a losing record in one season, and they are the first to win 13 games against such teams.
  • New England is 1-2 against teams with a winning record.
  • The Patriots (3) and Bills (5) are the only teams that played fewer than six games against winning teams in 2025.
  • The Chargers were 4-3 against winning teams, and that doesn’t include sweeping the Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes this year.
  • The over is 11-6 in New England games, tied for the second-highest over rate.
  • The over is 6-10-1 in Chargers games, tied for the third-lowest over rate.
  • The over is 2-5-1 when the Chargers are on the road.
  • Justin Herbert is 0-2 in the playoffs and threw a career-high 4 interceptions in his last playoff game at Houston a year ago.
  • Herbert (54) and Maye (47) took the third and fourth-most sacks this season.
  • Without his first-string tackles for most of the season, Herbert has faced the highest rate of pass pressure (43.3%) for any quarterback according to NFL Pro.
  • Herbert is 2-3 when his pressure rate is above 45.0%.
  • The Patriots have had a pressure rate above 45% against four quarterbacks, going 4-0 against Quinn Ewers (50.0%), Spencer Rattler (46.7%), Tua Tagovailoa (45.9%), and Dillon Gabriel (45.9%).
  • The Patriots faced 10 quarterbacks this season who were either benched, rookies, or backups.
  • The Patriots have a league-low 71 missed tackles on defense.
  • The Chargers have a league-high 251 third down attempts on offense and convert 45.8% of the time (third best).
  • Drake Maye led all quarterbacks with a 77.2 QBR in 2025.
  • Herbert finished 13th in QBR (60.8).
  • The Patriots only faced three quarterbacks who finished in the top 15 in QBR this year, including Josh Allen twice, Lamar Jackson (left injured), and Baker Mayfield.
  • New England’s defense has only allowed more than 24 points in one game (35 to Buffalo); the Dolphins had a return touchdown in the 33-27 loss in Week 2.
  • The Patriots allowed 389 yards to the Raiders in Week 1 and held all 16 opponents since under 375 yards (tied for the fifth-longest streak since 2010 including playoffs).
  • Drake Maye led the NFL in passer rating (113.5).
  • The Chargers are No. 1 in defensive passer rating (75.0).
  • The Chargers are 3-2 at game-winning drive opportunities and 5-2 in close games with 4 saves and 0 blown leads.
  • The Patriots are 2-3 at game-winning drive opportunities and 7-3 in close games with 7 saves and 1 blown lead.
  • After completing 13-of-17 deep passes (20+ yards) in Weeks 1-8, Maye is 12-of-31 (38.7%) on deep passes since Week 9.
  • Drake Maye has one fourth-quarter comeback win (at Baltimore) in his NFL career; Herbert has 15.
  • Maye is 1-6 in his career against teams with a winning record.

The Fatal Flaw

What is the factor most likely to lead to each team’s downfall this postseason and in this matchup in particular?

Chargers – Offensive Line

This one’s pretty obvious as it’s been an issue since Rashawn Slater was lost in the preseason, then Joe Alt was limited to six games. The Chargers have reportedly used 32 different offensive line combinations throughout this season, which is hard to fathom, but nothing hurts more than resorting to backup tackles.

It’s a shame too because the AFC West was there for the taking, and the Chargers did go 3-0 against the Chiefs (with Mahomes) and Broncos in games that Herbert started. But the offensive line limitations showed up in some losses to the Giants and Texans in particular.

Otherwise, the Chargers have a solid defense on par with what they did last year for Harbaugh and Jesse Minter. The running game was dealt a blow with the line issues, and injuries to Najee Harris and rookie Omarion Hampton. Herbert’s never had to scramble more nor has he done a better job of it.

But Herbert also has the deepest receiving corps of his career, and that’s a huge difference from last postseason when rookie Ladd McConkey was the only guy he could trust. This year, they got Keenan Allen back as his reliable safety valve, Quentin Johnston has played much better, McConkey is still there, and rookie tight end Oronde Gadsden II looks like a fifth-round gem. All four of those guys had at least 664 yards this year and rookie Tre Harris (324 yards) also contributed.

That deep receiving corps really could help the Chargers in a game like this where the Patriots have a great corner in Christian Gonzalez, but he can only cover one player at a time.

But Herbert is going to have to deal with the pass rush and not panic and turn the ball over. Trust his defense. But they have to show up early and not fall behind 14-0 like they did to Houston a few weeks ago.

Patriots – Schedule Merchants?

Without belaboring the point for 1,000 words since we might have to cover the Patriots again next week, yes, it’s the schedule that’s the main talking point for this team. It was in May too when the schedule came out and the Patriots were favored in 11 games despite a 4-13 season. But that’s the value of coaching with Mike Vrabel and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels.

It’s not just coaching and Drake Maye taking off in Year 2. The Patriots also added:

  • A legit WR1 in Stefon Diggs who has caught everything thrown his way in a lower-volume passing game.
  • Drafted the top left tackle prospect (Will Campbell).
  • Upgraded the pass protection at center with Garrett Bradbury and the run blocking with tackle Morgan Moses.
  • Wide receiver Mack Hollins had system familiarity with McDaniels from the Raiders and gives Maye another target with a big catch radius.
  • Corner Carlton Davis is only allowing 5.3 yards per target.
  • Rookies like running back TreVeyon Henderson and wide receiver Kyle Wiliams have shown their home-run ability already.
  • Milton Williams has improved the run defense.
  • Edge rusher Harold Landry reunited with Vrabel and leads the team with 8.5 sacks.
  • Fourth-round rookie safety Craig Woodson has been a Year 1 starter.

They have done their share of turning over the roster to get better results. Still, when you look through those names, it doesn’t exactly jump out as an all-star team that’d go 14-3, which is why it comes back to the schedule.

The Patriots’ strength of schedule this year was just .391, reportedly the lowest for any NFL team since the 1999 Rams, who won the Super Bowl despite going 0-1 against winning teams in the regular season. They also came back to beat that winning team (Titans) in the Super Bowl.

But this has been a historically-easy schedule for the Patriots, who were only half as good on the scoreboard (+142 scoring differential) through 16 games than those 1999 Rams were (+284).

Rarely does a team ever draw such a schedule like this. The Patriots are just the fifth team to win at least 12 games in a season without registering multiple wins against winning teams.

How does this happen? The Jets and Dolphins are bad teams, for starters. The NFC South couldn’t produce a single winning team either with a three-way battle to mediocrity at 8-9. The AFC North also had a down year, and those are the divisions the Patriots (and Bills) got to play this year on top of a fourth-place schedule for the Patriots.

But they also botched that by losing to the lowly Raiders at home (20-13) in Week 1 or else they might be the No. 1 seed right now. But the Patriots do come into this game very much not battle tested, very inexperienced in big games outside of people like McDaniels, Vrabel, and Diggs, and they’ll just have to prove they can beat the good teams. The Chargers, with their defense and Herbert, are probably the second-best team they’ve seen all year after Buffalo.

The Chargers are also arguably the second or third-best defense Maye will have seen this year after Cleveland and Buffalo’s pass defense. The Patriots have managed to play a very weak collection of both offenses and defenses, so it’s both units that need tested.

We can talk about this more next week when Denver, a team that also beat up on a favorable schedule, is in action, or if it’s Denver against the Chargers, then we’ll definitely mention how the Chargers already knocked off one schedule merchant. Now let’s see if they can eliminate another.

Best Bets and Prediction

One thing we have to remember about Mike Vrabel is he’s not Bill Belichick. He’s not even officially on Belichick’s coaching tree (probably a good thing; it’s rotten) as he just played for him. But Vrabel has lost his last three playoff games, two at home, and he’d be 0-3 in the postseason if Belichick’s 2019 Patriots didn’t lay an egg against his Titans in the wild card round.

Another thing is Maye isn’t Tom Brady yet either. As much as Patriots fans want to think they’re set up for another long run here, this team has to win four games against winning teams this postseason to get one ring after one such win all year. And that was in a game in Buffalo where they got some early fumble recoveries and still only scored six points halfway through the third quarter.

We don’t know how Maye will react in his first playoff game. He could be really good, or he could turtle up like Ryan Tannehill always did for Vrabel in the postseason.

There’s a lot to prove for these Patriots, and it wouldn’t be a shock at all if Harbaugh and Herbert pulled this one out. West coast teams tend to do pretty well on the east coast in prime-time games too. Circadian rhythms.

But the offensive line of the Chargers, the potential for cold weather, and the general curse of the Chargers in big games are reasons enough to think New England beats them here. For all the Peyton Manning comparisons that Herbert gets, Peyton lost his third playoff game 41-0 to the Jets in 2002. Hopefully this game is competitive, but Herbert is going to have to survive the pass rush and probably have to win this game late to earn that elusive playoff win in Year 6.

Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers (+3, O/U 39.5)

The No. 5 Houston Texans (12-5) will take on the No. 4 Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) this Monday night in Pittsburgh. It’s hard to say who is happiest that Tyler Loop missed the game-winning field goal on Sunday night that helped the Steelers clinch the AFC North. Is it Mike Tomlin or D.K. Metcalf? The suspended receiver is back, and Aaron Rodgers needs him as he’ll take on the No. 1 defense all year from Houston.

The Texans, once 0-3, have won nine straight games coming into this one. Really, this game is all about the streaks and some must come to an end for these teams:

  • The Texans, a first-time wild card team, are 0-6 in road playoff games in franchise history.
  • The Steelers are 0-6 in the playoffs since the 2016 AFC Championship Game.
  • The Steelers have allowed at least 28 points in 6 straight playoff games, an NFL record.
  • The Steelers have won 23 straight Monday night games at home, an NFL record (last loss was in 1991).

Don’t forget the Steelers have also gone 69 straight games without scoring more than 7 points in the first quarter, a streak almost certain to continue here against stingy Houston. But a fast start would be nice for a change as the Steelers have trailed big and early in their last six playoff games:

But something does feel a little different with this year’s team, so we’ll see if they can end these bad streaks, extend the good ones, or if the Texans can keep streaking to 10 wins and take that top-ranked defense to the divisional round.

The Last Matchup

2023, Week 4: Texans 30, Steelers 6

It’s been over two years since these teams met in the fourth game for DeMeco Ryans’ tenure with the Texans. That ended up being a rout with rookie C.J. Stroud (306 yards) vastly outplaying Kenny Pickett in a 30-6 domination of the Steelers.

You want to say there might be more value in looking at how Aaron Rodgers handled the Texans’ stellar defense last year with the Jets in a Thursday Night Football game that had a memorable second-half comeback. Rodgers went from arguably the least effective half of his career to throwing three touchdown passes and finishing with 2 sacks and no turnovers in a 21-13 win.

Injury Watch

The Steelers have gotten healthy enough at the right time. They won’t have tight end Darnell Washington after he broke his arm, but Rodgers has weapons again after Calvin Austin returned last week, and D.K. Metcalf is back from his 2-game suspension. They also got T.J. Watt back from his lung operation, and he had an interception against Lamar Jackson.

The Texans are also quite healthy and got to rest some key players on Sunday, either for the full game or the second half. If there’s any injury to focus on, look at the practice status this week for corner Kamari Lassiter, who has an ankle injury.

The Eagles rested a lot of starters in Week 18’s loss to Washington. That should help them out for this one, and they’ll hope to get some players fresh in the trenches, including stars like Jalen Carter and Lane Johnson. They definitely have the health edge over San Francisco.

Stats to Know

Here are some useful and informative statistics for these teams heading into this matchup:

  • The Steelers and Texans are both 9-8 ATS this season.
  • Houston has beat the spread by an average of +4.3 points compared to +0.7 for the Steelers.
  • The over is 6-10-1 in Houston games, tied for the third-lowest over rate in 2025.
  • The over is 9-7-1 in Pittsburgh games (3-4-1 at home).
  • The Steelers have scored at least 26 points in 6-of-8 games coming into Monday.
  • The Steelers have not scored more than 24 points in any game against a top 10 scoring defense this year (held to 17 points against Seattle and 7 points against Buffalo at home).
  • The Steelers are 9-1 when they don’t allow more than 24 points (1-6 when they do).
  • The Steelers are 10-2 when they don’t have multiple giveaways.
  • The Texans are +17 in turnover differential and have lost a league-low 3 fumbles.
  • The Texans have had the best average starting field position of all teams.
  • Houston’s running game is only 29th in yards per carry (3.9).
  • The Texans are 11-0 when they score 20+ points (1-5 when they don’t).
  • The Texans are the 22nd team in the Super Bowl era to enter the playoffs on a winning streak of at least 9 games – five of those teams won the Super Bowl and eight lost their first playoff game.
  • The Texans have only allowed three teams to score more than 21 points this season.
  • On the road, Houston has held 7-of-8 opponents to 17 points or less (only Seattle scored 27 points).
  • The Texans are 9-0 when they gain at least 300 yards.
  • The Texans are 9-0 when they have at least 200 net passing yards.
  • The Texans are 8-0 when they have at least 20 first downs.
  • The Texans have gone 18 straight games without allowing more than 360 yards, the third-longest streak since 2013.
  • C.J. Stroud is 4-9 against winning teams in road games in his career (win at Chargers snapped 8-game losing streak in such games).
  • The Steelers lead the NFL with 6.5 YAC/Completion.
  • The Steelers lead the NFL with +528 YAC Over Expected per NFL Pro (no other team is better than +356).
  • Houston’s defense ranks 16th with +185 YACOE allowed.
  • The Steelers have the third-most missed tackles on defense (126).
  • Aaron Rodgers has the fastest time to throw (2.59 seconds) this season.
  • The Steelers are 7-1 when Rodgers’ average time to throw is under 2.5 seconds (1-4 when it’s above 2.8 seconds).
  • Baker Mayfield (2.43 seconds) and Matthew Stafford (2.42) are the only quarterbacks with an average time to throw under 2.5 seconds against Houston and both won their games. They’re the only two to produce positive EPA/dropback.
  • Quarterbacks are 1-8 against Houston when their average time to throw is 2.75 seconds or longer.
  • The Steelers are 25th on third down defense (41.5%) and 31st at stopping fourth downs (73.7% of the time they don’t stop them).
  • Houston is 23rd on third down on offense (37.2%)
  • Houston’s 19 fourth-down attempts are the second fewest in 2025 (Seattle, 12).
  • The Texans score touchdowns on 46.3% of red-zone trips (ranked 30th).
  • The Texans are 5-4 at game-winning drive opportunities and 8-4 in close games with 7 saves and 2 blown leads.
  • The Steelers are 3-4 at game-winning drive opportunities and 6-5 in close games with 6 saves and 2 blown leads.
  • Houston’s backup quarterback Davis Mills has as many fourth-quarter comeback wins (2) this season as C.J. Stroud has in his career; Stroud is 2-10 (.167) at 4QC opportunities but 7-11 (.389) when the game is also tied in the fourth quarter or overtime.

The Fatal Flaw

What is the factor most likely to lead to each team’s downfall this postseason and in this matchup in particular?

Texans – The Offense

Everyone knows the Texans have a Super Bowl-caliber defense. The question remains the offense, which was killing the team during its 0-3 start despite holding the No. 1 defense at that time. C.J. Stroud has managed to win a wild card playoff game at home in both of his seasons, but he has yet to prove himself on the road, scoring 3 points in Baltimore (2023) and getting sacked 8 times in Kansas City last year.

In both years, the Texans were limited at wide receiver in the playoffs with Tank Dell injured. This year, they should be healthier and deeper with Nico Collins, Jayden Higgins, and Xavier Hutchinson all producing something this year to go along with tight end Dalton Schultz (777 yards).

But the running game is hit or miss with Woody Marks, who averages 3.6 yards per carry. The Texans have only turned the ball over twice in their last five games, so that’s one way for this offense to make sure it isn’t hurting the defense in field position. Protect the ball.

But it took some favorable penalty calls on third downs against the Raiders and Chargers for the Texans to run out the clock in low-scoring, close games. It just feels inevitable that this offense will come up short in a road game this postseason whether it’s this week or against the Broncos, Jaguars, or Patriots.

However, Stroud has his shot with his healthiest receiving corps and his best defense yet to reach a Super Bowl in Year 3. Few No. 5 seeds are this prepared to go the distance.

Steelers – Mike Tomlin’s Playoff Defense

The Steelers have struggled to build an offensive identity around Aaron Rodgers all year, but it’s hard to deny the offense has been able to score some points down the stretch – Cleveland game aside with the suspended Metcalf hurting them. Kicker Chris Boswell has also been shaky down the stretch with several failed kicks.

But the mistake people make about Mike Tomlin not winning a playoff game since 2016 is that they blame the quarterback position when it’s been his nightmarish defense that can’t get stops, can’t keep teams out of the end zone, and rarely ever produces a turnover or sack in these games. You could argue it’s the worst 6-game run of defense in NFL playoff history.

It’s not even like every game was against Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, or Josh Allen on the road. Half of the six losses were. But they were also destroyed in their last two home playoff games against Blake Bortles (2017 Jaguars) and Baker Mayfield (2020 Browns). A callback to getting destroyed in Denver against Tim Tebow in 2011 (316 yards on 10 completions).

Hell, Aaron Rodgers’ only Super Bowl ring came at the expense of a Tomlin defense in Super Bowl 45 that would have given up over 400 yards if Jordy Nelson didn’t have some drops.

The only good news this week is the Texans don’t seem to be explosive enough to score 28+ points on the road with ease on what could be a chilly night. Granted, Tebow and Bortles still happened too, but maybe this year is different.

If the Steelers can get past this game, then you’re talking about maybe winning at Denver where Bo Nix isn’t exactly a dominant or proven January quarterback. They’ve already won in New England thanks to forcing five turnovers in a 21-14 upset.

That’s the thing. The Steelers have risen to the occasion this year with takeaways and shutting down some of the best offenses like the Colts, Patriots, and Lions. That’s why this feels like this season has a chance to end the playoff win drought, but given the lapses against Justin Fields, Joe Flacco, and terrible second halves against teams like the Bills, Seahawks, Chargers, and Packers, the Steelers do not have a Super Bowl-caliber defense they can rely on to take them the distance.

But one home game against Houston? It’s doable.

Best Bets and Prediction

DeMeco Ryans has as many playoff wins in his first two seasons (2) as Mike Tomlin’s had in his last nine seasons. Alas, I’m leaning towards the Steelers getting this one at home where they simply don’t lose on Monday nights. The crowd should be electric after last week’s win, Metcalf gives them a deep threat, and Rodgers is going to get the ball out quickly to try to negate that Houston pass rush he figured out in the second half last year.

That’s going to be the key. The Steelers need to get this one to the fourth quarter within striking range instead of the Tomlin special, which means giving up 21 or 28 points before you even get on the board. But despite that quick 14-0 surge the Texans had in Los Angeles against the Chargers (that game slowed down immensely too and ended 20-16), it doesn’t feel like a Houston team that’s going to get into a 31-28 shootout here.

This game should be tight in the fourth quarter, and when it comes down to trusting Rodgers or Stroud to lead their team in that moment, you have to give the 42-year-old 4-time MVP the edge there. It’s also past time for T.J. Watt to make his mark in a playoff game and cause some havoc for Stroud, who has taken sacks in excess in some big games in his career.

Maybe the firing of John Harbaugh wakes up these coaches like Tomlin and McDermott this weekend. You can’t keep losing these games and expect to be brought back next year.

Go win a playoff game.

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Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar08/01/2026 - 02:00 pm