The 2026 NBA playoffs officially start Saturday, and the main story from last summer is still the main story in April: Do the Oklahoma City Thunder repeat and end this historic run of seven different champions in seven years for the NBA?
If you followed the 2025-26 NBA regular season, you know there was a lot of bashing of the product in the form of too many blowouts, too many stars missing too many games, tanking accusations (and punishments for select teams), and even criticism for the media in the way ESPN has limited the use of TNT’s Inside the NBA crew after acquiring them for this year.
But it’s not all bad. We’ve seen the Spurs return to a 60-win team behind Victor Wembanyama, a great Rookie of the Year race between Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel, Nikola Jokic averaged another monster triple-double, Luka Doncic went crazy winning the scoring title, and superstars like Jayson Tatum and Cade Cunningham did get healthy in time for the playoffs. Also, the NBA’s return to NBC has come with great production quality for TV.
But all eyes will be on the Thunder as the No. 1 overall seed again. They lead all teams, as they have since Game 7 of the Finals ended last June, in the odds to win the 2026 NBA Finals per FanDuel:
- Oklahoma City Thunder (-110)
- San Antonio Spurs (+600)
- Boston Celtics (+600)
- Denver Nuggets (+1300)
- Cleveland Cavaliers (+1300)
- Detroit Pistons (+1600)
- New York Knicks (+2200)
- Houston Rockets (+7500)
- Minnesota Timberwolves (+10000)
- Atlanta Hawks (+12500)
- Los Angeles Lakers (+22500)
- Toronto Raptors (+25000)
- Philadelphia 76ers (+25000)
- Orlando Magic (+70000)
- Portland Trail Blazers (+75000)
- Phoenix Suns (+75000)
No one has won the NBA Finals if they had worse odds than +1800 at the start of the playoffs, so that would mean the only viable champions this year are the Thunder, Spurs, Celtics, Nuggets, Cavaliers, and Pistons. That does not sound unreasonable either.
If you recall last year, the Indiana Pacers were +8000 at the start of the playoffs to go the distance, and they may have completed the greatest upset in NBA history if Tyrese Haliburton didn’t tear his Achilles in the first quarter of Game 7 of the NBA Finals.
This year feels more like chalk will take over, but we could still see some great matchups as the Spurs will likely have to take down the Nuggets and the Thunder to advance to the Finals. We could also see a rematch of Knicks vs. Celtics in the second round.
Finally, for all the complaining about where the NBA product was this season, did you notice what happened this week? The play-in tournament games were great and competitive with both teams giving it their all in meaningful action. At least that was true on Tuesday and Wednesday. Let’s hope that carries over to the real thing this weekend and beyond. Last postseason was incredible too, save for the multiple Achilles injuries.
Let’s look at the eight first-round matchups in these playoffs and we’ll make our picks for the NBA Finals too.
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NBA 2026 Playoffs: First-Round Matchups
The eight first-round playoff series get started on Saturday. The odds for series winner are from DraftKings.
No. 1 Detroit Pistons vs. No. 8 Orlando Magic
- Series Odds: Pistons -500 | Magic +380
- Season Series: Series tied 2-2
If you go back to the preseason, the Magic were expected to be one of the teams to get a bump in the East thanks to the injuries the Celtics and Pacers were going through to their best player. But it ended up being Detroit who overachieved so much that the Pistons won 60 games and are the No. 1 seed.
Meanwhile, Orlando nearly missed the playoffs entirely in what would have been a big collapse. They lost to Boston’s backups on Sunday, meaning they had to play the play-in tournament where they lost the first game to the 76ers. But they rebounded on Friday night with a blowout win against Charlotte to earn the No. 8 seed.
Still, the Magic have been one of the more disappointing teams this season while the Pistons are up there with the Spurs as the biggest overachiever. However, for a No. 1 vs. No. 8 matchup, this is a little scary territory for the young Pistons, a franchise that hasn’t won a playoff series since 2008. They got a taste of the playoffs last year but lost in six games to the Knicks.
These teams split the season series 2-2, including Orlando’s close win in an NBA Cup game early in the season, and they’ve also split their recent matchups late in the year. Statistically, the Magic are a very mediocre team, but they do have three players averaging 20 points per game this year in Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, and Desmond Bane. They could pose a problem for Detroit, who is better defensively than they are on offense.
But Cade Cunningham has had a great year, basically averaging 24 points and 10 assists a game. Jalen Duren has made a big leap at center, and they do have some veterans with playoff experience like Tobias Harris and Duncan Robinson.
I’d be worried about Detroit in the later rounds, but they should be able to get past Orlando here.
No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 8 Phoenix Suns
- Series Odds: Thunder -3000 | Suns +1300
- Season Series: Series tied 2-2
I believe the Thunder were -4000 to win in the first round last year, so this is actually closer even if it doesn’t feel like it. The Suns lost the first play-in tournament game to Portland but held up against the Warriors on Friday night in a 15-point win. That could also be the end of an era for the Warriors with Steve Kerr, Steph Curry, and Draymond Green possibly playing their last game together.
Yet, it’s funny how the Suns objectively had a better year than the Clippers and Warriors did, yet you feel like this series just got easier for the Thunder to win, if not sweep 4-0. That’s the value of star power in the NBA. You fear Kawhi Leonard and Steph Curry when they’re healthy in the playoffs because you’ve seen them win multiple championships and know what they’re capable of.
With the Suns, Devin Booker is their guy, and he just hasn’t been that kind of playoff performer in his career. On Friday night, it was Jalen Green who had the big game (36 points). But how will he perform in the playoffs? Last year with Houston, he shot .372 from the field and averaged just 13.3 points in the playoffs. That’s why the team had to get rid of him and acquire Kevin Durant.
The Thunder shouldn’t have any issues here. They lost 135-102 at home to the Suns on Sunday but both teams rested their starters for a meaningless game. The Thunder’s great defense, the best hustle team in the league, and the consistent scoring of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander should be plenty enough to win this series in four or five games.
No. 2 Boston Celtics vs. No. 7 Philadelphia 76ers
- Series Odds: Celtics -900 | 76ers +600
- Season Series: Series tied 2-2
Most thought the Celtics would take a considerable step back this year with Jayson Tatum missing most of the year due to his Achilles injury last postseason. But Jaylen Brown played better than ever, Joe Mazzulla coached them to another 56-win campaign, they played the slowest pace to make the games more about defense, and here they are as the No. 2 seed. Oh, and Tatum is back in time and scoring over 20 a night too.
The 76ers beat Orlando in the play-in tournament to get the No. 7 seed. Once again, Joel Embiid (appendectomy) is out for the start of the playoffs, though we’ll see if he can give it a go before this series ends.
But the 76ers are better prepared to play without Embiid now that Tyrese Maxey has hit his prime, Paul George is back healthy, and rookie VJ Edgecombe had a good year, including a huge night on opening night against Boston. Still, with Embiid only appearing in 38 of the games, the 2025-26 76ers are the definition of mediocrity with rankings of 17th in Offensive Rating and 16th in Defensive Rating.
These teams met three times early in the year and not much since. While Tatum isn’t scoring efficiently post-injury, that’s to be expected. His teammates, namely Brown, are picking up the slack, so he should be fine in this series and play elevated minutes after returning in March to ramp up for the playoffs.
The Celtics can win low-scoring games against the 76ers, especially if Embiid can’t go early on here. Look for Boston to advance and have a real shot at a deep title run.
No. 2 San Antonio Spurs vs. No. 7 Portland Trail Blazers
- Series Odds: Spurs -2000 | Trail Blazers +1000
- Season Series: Spurs lead 2-1
Both teams are ahead of schedule this year. Everyone knew the San Antonio Spurs would be improved, but second-best record in the NBA (62-20) with a 4-1 record against the Thunder wasn’t something most expected to happen so soon.
Yes, Victor Wembanyama is a phenom and he’s likely going to win his first MVP soon (just not this year). He is going to win Defensive Player of the Year as his height gives him such a shot-blocking advantage, and the Spurs improved to No. 3 in Defensive Rating.
But it’s not just Wemby in San Antonio for coach Mitch Johnson. They have other lottery picks coming into their own like Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper (rookie). Keldon Johnson has played well off the bench and is a finalist for Sixth Man of the Year.
The player to watch for them this postseason is point guard De’Aaron Fox, who they acquired in a trade last season from Sacramento. The Spurs are going to hear how they’re young and not ready for a full title run just yet. But Fox being a veteran, granted one without much playoff experience himself, could be crucial in executing in the fourth quarter where he can be a major weapon in tight games. Show the youngsters how to do it.
But yes, Playoff Wemby is something people have been wanting to see the moment he was drafted, and the Spurs are finally back in the playoffs for the first time since 2019.
The Portland path to the playoffs is arguably more shocking given they started their season with Chauncey Billups losing his coaching position after he was arrested in a gambling scandal. But Portland coach Tiago Splitter has done a great job of keeping the team competitive, and it’s not like the return of Damian Lillard had an impact. He’s played zero minutes as he recovers from an Achilles tear.
Instead, it’s Deni Avdija who has had a career year and his first All-Star season. Veteran point guard Jrue Holiday has also helped the team to this point. Portland had an epic comeback against Phoenix the other night to clinch the No. 7 seed.
Portland’s offense is likely too limited to score enough points to beat the Spurs in this series, but maybe they can avoid the sweep by pulling out a game that exposes the youth and inexperience for San Antonio.
However, this matchup isn’t the issue for the Spurs. The story of their postseason is the way they lost their 82nd game to Denver, which led to the Nuggets getting the No. 3 seed and the Lakers getting the No. 4 seed. The Spurs played their starters except for Wemby, who chose to rest his ribs.
We’ll see if that’s a big mistake as the Spurs will now likely have to face the Nuggets in the second round and the Thunder in the Western Conference Finals just to reach the NBA Finals. Had they won on Sunday, they’d make Denver play the Thunder in the second round and get a more favorable draw themselves (Lakers vs. Timberwolves winner).
Sure, you have to beat whoever necessary to win a championship, but I’d much rather face the Thunder coming off a tough series with Denver than have to beat both. But we’ll see how it goes for this young team that could be the next big thing in the NBA. There is a history of such teams getting humbled in the playoffs first, whether it was Michael Jordan’s Bulls, Shaq-Kobe Lakers, or in other sports like Peyton Manning’s Colts, Wayne Gretzky’s Oilers, and Sidney Crosby’s Penguins.
We’ll see if Playoff Wemby is must-see TV as the next challenge on his path to becoming the new face of the league.
No. 3 New York Knicks vs. No. 6 Atlanta Hawks
- Series Odds: Knicks -275 | Hawks +220
- Season Series: Knicks lead 2-1
The Knicks finished 53-29, their best record since 2012-13, in coach Mike Brown’s first year after replacing Tom Thibodeau. But now the real fun begins as the Knicks were a preseason favorite to win the East given the team that’s eliminated them the last two years (Pacers) were going to have a bad season because of Tyrese Haliburton’s Achilles injury.
However, the Boston Celtics didn’t fall apart without Jayson Tatum and his Achilles injury, so they still finished No. 2 ahead of the Knicks, to say nothing of the Pistons. But the Knicks can worry about the Celtics and Pistons later if they have to.
The first order of business is eliminating an Atlanta Hawks team that wasn’t supposed to be this good this year, especially when star point guard Trae Young played just 10 games for them. But that relationship soured, and they traded him to the Wizards.
But the Hawks still thrived to reach the postseason behind an All-Star effort from Jalen Johnson (22.5 points, 10.3 rebounds, 7.9 assists) and a true breakout year for Nickeil Alexander-Walker (20.8 points, 3.4 rebounds, 3.7 assists) in his first year with the team and seventh NBA season overall.
Since February’s All-Star break, the Hawks have the third-best record in the NBA (20-6) and rank No. 4 in Net Rating (+9.7) in that time. While the Hawks are 1-2 against the Knicks this year, both losses were by 3 points each.
Atlanta will certainly hustle in this one. The Hawks ranked 4th in contested shot rate, 6th in deflections, and 4th in loose balls recovered. The Knicks will lean on the playoff experience and clutch shots from Jalen Brunson and an experienced roster supporting him while hoping the Hawks’ lack of experience in these games hurts them.
No. 3 Denver Nuggets vs. No. 6 Minnesota Timberwolves
- Series Odds: Nuggets -350 | Timberwolves +280
- Season Series: Nuggets lead 3-1
For the second year in a row, the Timberwolves finished 49-33 and the No. 6 seed in the West. But this team also has played in the Western Conference Finals for the last two years, including in 2024 after a shocking comeback in Denver in Game 7 of the semifinals. Meanwhile, the Nuggets have lost Game 7 in the semifinals two years in a row since their championship in 2023.
This could be a good first-round matchup with Denver expected to get revenge for 2024. The Nuggets won their last 12 games to end the regular season and are fairly healthy going into the playoffs. They’re also 3-1 against Minnesota this season.
Nikola Jokic made history by becoming the first player to lead the NBA in rebounds per game and assists per game in the same season. His PER (32.35) was the second-highest season in NBA history, only trailing the 32.85 he had in the 2021-22 season. Jamal Murray had his first All-Star season and best season of his career.
But as we know with the Nuggets in the Jokic era, they have this split to overcome:
- 10-0 in playoff series vs. teams that win a maximum of 50 games in a season.
- 0-6 in playoff series vs. teams that win more than 50 games in a season.
The Timberwolves were 49-33, so they fall just under that line, but that’s something to keep an eye on when the Nuggets likely have to meet a 60-win team like the Spurs and/or Thunder.
But Denver is on a roll and should win this series, which could still easily go six or seven games because you know Anthony Edwards, Julius Randle, Rudy Gobert, Jaden McDaniels and company are going to put up a fight. Minnesota isn’t bad on either end (12th in Offensive Rating, 8th in Defensive Rating). They just aren’t strong enough on either to trust them to win this one.
No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No. 5 Toronto Raptors
- Series Odds: Cavaliers -550 | Raptors +400
- Season Series: Raptors lead 3-0
The Cleveland Cavaliers declined by 12 wins (64 to 52) this year, but they are still one of the best teams in the East. Donovan Mitchell is hoping to get to his first Conference Finals in Year 9 after another big year, but the Cavaliers will be judged by how these playoffs go after the big trade with the Clippers that swapped Darius Garland for James Harden at point guard.
The story on Harden in the playoffs is well known. He’s always in the tournament, he’ll have some good moments, but he’ll also find a way to come up short in the end as he’s yet to win a championship or even return to the NBA Finals since that 2012 year when he was young in Oklahoma City with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook carrying more of the load.
But it is a different look for the Cavaliers than last year, so we’ll see if it leads to a better playoff outcome after they watched the Pacers pull off some incredible comebacks in the semifinals in 2025.
However, the Cavaliers are 0-3 against Toronto this season, so they can’t take the Raptors lightly at all. On the plus side, all of those losses were in October and November. Very early in the season, and not only was it before the Harden trade, but Garland was out for those games with an injury, so the Cavs didn’t even have a legitimate starting point guard for those games like they’ll have here.
Still, Toronto is No. 5 in Defensive Rating and can likely steal a game or two to keep it interesting. Brandon Ingram has only played 10 NBA playoff games in his career, but he’s here with Toronto in his first season with the team after he averaged 21.5 points and made his second All-Star team.
Harden and Mitchell seem snakebitten in the postseason, but I would trust them to get past Toronto at least.
No. 4 Los Angeles Lakers vs. No. 5 Houston Rockets
- Series Odds: Rockets -575 | Lakers +400
- Season Series: Lakers lead 2-1
This could have been a great first-round series (and still could be), but injuries late in the season to Luka Doncic (hamstring strain) and Austin Reaves (oblique) likely means a 41-year-old LeBron James is going to have to duel with Kevin Durant and the Rockets himself. Meanwhile, Durant has good support in Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson.
Durant and James are the only pair of players in NBA history to average over 30 points per game against each other in the playoffs (min. 10 games). They both might do that again as Huge Workload LeBron was getting it done in those last few games since Doncic and Reaves were injured on April 2nd against the Thunder following a great March where the Lakers were 15-2.
They lost control of the No. 3 seed in the end, and they lost their best and third-best player likely for the first round. The injuries suffered by Doncic and Reaves usually require a full month of healing, though there is an outside shot that Doncic could give it a go in that first week of May should LeBron and the Lakers push this to Game 6 or Game 7.
But your expectations should be that James won’t have either for the length of this series, which is why the Lakers are a 5-point home underdog in Game 1 this Saturday night. It’s hard to trust any of the season stats for the Lakers when we know Doncic won the scoring title and so much of that 15-2 March was built on his greatness as a scorer.
To play devil’s advocate, LeBron has some good 2-man lineup splits (Net Points per 100 Possessions) with his lesser teammates this year:
- LeBron & Luke Kennard: +9.9 Net Points in 307:24
- LeBron & Jarred Vanderbilt: +8.5 Net Points in 463:56
- LeBron & Marcus Smart: +4.9 Net Points in 1042:04
Oddly enough, LeBron & Luka have some of the worst numbers for the Lakers with just +0.8 Net Points in 1131:36. But those players like Kennard, Vanderbilt, Smart, Deandre Ayton, and Rui Hachimura are the ones James will be leaning on to get this done.
The Rockets didn’t take quite the big leap they wanted to this year with the Durant move, finishing 52-30 again and a lower seed this time. In fact, they had slightly better odds (+7000) going into the playoffs last year without Durant than they do this year with him (+7500).
But Sengun has played well and they’ve overcome the preseason loss of point guard Fred VanVleet (ACL). They’re also an elite rebounding team and could hurt the Lakers with second-chance points
It would be a big blow to the Rockets if they can’t get past the Lakers with one-third of the Big 3 left, but you can never count out LeBron James with homecourt advantage and playing with some house money as the odds are stacked against him here.
Best 2026 NBA Finals Bets
The Thunder are basically a coin flip to win the title, which is quite the statement itself going into the first round. Even SGA is +100 to win Finals MVP today.
Their path sure doesn’t look bad either with Phoenix, then the winner of the Lakers/Rockets series. They’d only have to face one of the Spurs/Nuggets and it wouldn’t be until the Conference Finals where they’d have home court.
It feels like such an easy call to pick the Thunder, but I still believe they are going to come up short of a repeat this year. They were only 40-17 after that 24-1 start, and Jalen Williams hasn’t been healthy this season and playing as well because of it. I think the winner of Spurs/Nuggets could take them out, though I have less confidence in the Nuggets doing it while the Spurs are 4-1 against OKC (but 0-3 vs. Denver since March 12).
However, I’m sticking to my picks from the All-Star break to reach the Finals in the Celtics and Thunder. But I’m going the other way on it and picking Boston to win in a battle of the last two champions. They showed in two matchups late in the year, including one game that Tatum sat out, that they can hang with that team.
Jaylen Brown is my Finals MVP pick as he’ll have the stronger series compared to Tatum this time.
But it is a ripe opportunity for the Thunder to repeat given the other two 60-win teams (Spurs and Pistons) are so inexperienced in the postseason that they just may not be ready to go the distance yet. Throw in Luka Doncic’s injury, the way the Knicks and Cavaliers always come up short, and Denver still not adding a huge difference maker around Jokic, and it is OKC’s title to lose.
Still, I’m not forgetting how the Nuggets and Pacers both had the Thunder on the ropes in Game 4 of the semifinals and NBA Finals last year and would have taken a 3-1 lead had they just closed the fourth quarter. This team is far from invincible, but they are definitely still the team to beat.
NBA Pick: NBA Finalists 2026 – Boston Celtics vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (+270) at FanDuel
NBA Pick: NBA Finals 2026 Exact Outcome – Celtics Defeat Thunder (+1200) at FanDuel
NBA Pick: 2026 NBA Finals MVP – Jaylen Brown (+1300) at FanDuel
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