Two phenomenal semi-finals excite us this weekend in the Supercoppa Italiana, as Italian football is put on display at the highest level. Stars line the pitch as contrasting football identities collide, offering a spectacle exciting for diehard and casual fans alike. This year’s edition promises to be a thrilling clash on the road to the final.
Table of Contents
History of the Format
The first edition of the Supercoppa Italiana was held in 1988, featuring the Serie A champions and the Coppa Italia winners. For many years, it was played in Italy, but as the commercial appeal grew, it moved abroad. Previous tournaments have been hosted in the United States, China, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, with this tournament held in Riyadh at King Saud University Stadium. The current format has been modelled on the Spanish Supercopa, with a four-team mini-tournament involving a semi-final and final, inviting the winner and runner-up of the two tournaments.
Overview
The new setup of the Supercoppa Italiana adds fresh tactical layers, more storylines, and added expectations, with all four teams having a realistic shot at lifting the first Italian trophy of the season. Napoli and AC Milan face off in a clash of giants, trying to regain momentum, while defending champions Inter encounter a fearless Bologna side appearing in the tournament for the first time, continuing to surprise Italy with its tactical maturity and consistency.
First Semi-final
Napoli enter the semi-final as a team reshaped since their Scudetto-winning campaign, with their strengths
Their strength lies in tactical flexibility, adapting to coaching changes, player signings, and overcoming injuries. In knockout games, Gli Azzurri are known for their competitive edge and history of producing memorable Supercoppa Italiana performances, particularly through quick transitions and individual skill.
AC Milan arrives carrying the weight of expectation due to their consistent league presence. Their main strengths are technical improvement, a strong leadership core, and a prolific young attack. However, their performances in high-pressure matches have been inconsistent, something a Supercoppa Italiana victory could help to dispel.
This semifinal is as unpredictable as it gets.
Napoli
Napoli travel to the Supercoppa Italiana after back-to-back losses to Udinese and Benfica in the Champions League for the second time this season. Antonio Conte’s side aims to use individual brilliance to create attack, likely through Scott McTominay, Rasmus Hojlund, and David Neres, along with overlapping wingbacks to stretch the structure of the defense through players such as Giovanni Di Lorenzo. Napoli’s vulnerability in defensive transitions, especially the space behind the double pivot, could invite Milan to counterattack.
Rasmus Hojlund & David Neres #NapoliJuve pic.twitter.com/0303snVrvU
— H (@HQpcrt) December 7, 2025
AC Milan
A 2-2 draw to Sassuolo renounced the top spot of Serie A to city rivals Inter, taking the lead. Further, with one loss in their last 11 games, Massimiliano Allegri’s Rossoneri come into this match with strong form. Small wins this match will come from neutralising wide battles and taking opportunities on the counterattack, along with a high press and strong midfield will tactically allow advantages. Weaknesses come from set-piece fragility and defense along the flanks, which Napoli loves to abuse.
Match Prediction – Napoli 1-0 AC Milan
Semi-final 1 of the Supercoppa Italiana is expected to have tactical adjustments and several shifts in possessions, with Napoli trying to dominate the ball and overload the flanks where possible. Milan will aim to break away quickly and use the spaces behind Napoli’s defensive line. An intense battle is inevitable, and one moment of quality from a top attacker could decide the match. We predict Napoli to have the decisive moment in this match, with Rasmus Hojlund scoring the lone goal in the match, leaving the scoreline as 1-0.
Second Semi-final
Inter enter the Supercoppa Italiana as the defending champions, and the most consistent Italian side in recent years, with Simone Inzaghi’s side becoming a knockout-match machine. But Bologna is not the soft underdog of the past. Their recent rise has been an inspiring story, even after the departure of Thiago Motta; the structure of the squad has remained intact: pressing, fluidity, and the ability to cause trouble against tough opponents. This semi-final isn’t just Inter v Bologna, it is proven excellence against a complex side.
Inter Milan
The trend of no draws in the Serie A continues, with a 2-1 win over Genoa reclaiming the top spot for the Nerazzurri, with the combination of 4 victories in 5 games looking promising for their Supercoppa Italiana match in Saudi Arabia. Controlling Bologna’s press with their defense, the best structure in Italy, along with exploiting Bologna’s high line with Lautaro Martinez, one of the most complete forwards in Europe, will be crucial for winning chances. Consequently, wing-back dependence and squads with a strong midfield may pose problems for Inter, leading to an exciting challenge.
Bologna
Losing 1-0 to Juventus last week drops I Rossoblù out of the top 4, with the hopes to continue their 2025-26 campaign without back-to-back losses. Domination through the midfield and positional play will aid their chances against the Serie A leaders, along with their courageous pressing, not scared of even the toughest opponents. However, their high defensive line risks providing opportunities to Inter’s forwards, along with having a younger and less experienced squad, making this semi-final a test of maturity under pressure.
Match Prediction – Inter Milan 2-1 Bologna
This matchup will likely be more controlled and tactical than semi-final 1, with Inter pouncing on counterattacks through Martinez, and Bologna intending to outplay Inter with possession and fluidity. The midfield chess match between players such as Hakan Çalhanoğlu and Nikola Moro will surely define the outcome of the match. Although Bologna are 5/1 to win, we predict a 1-1 draw in regulation time, with Lautaro Martinez to score in extra time to make the score 2-1.
Looking Towards the Final
Based on our predictions, the final will be Napoli against Inter Milan, first against third in the Serie A, and 2 teams on form, competing for the first trophy of the 2025-26 season. An accolade-laden Napoli fighting an experienced Inter Milan side will be an unforgettable match, a tactical masterpiece spearheaded by the coaching battle between Antonio Conte and Cristian Chivu.
Bottom Line
These Supercoppa Italiana semifinals offer two fascinating stories, with semi-final 1 involving two historical giants fighting for silverware, and semi-final 2 acting as a match between experience and youth, with both matchups expected to be exciting. The tournament rewards risk-taking and adaptability, along with a strong incentive, where the four different football identities clash, leading to an exciting set of matches to come.
