Crunch Time in the Conference League: Crystal Palace & The Fight for the Top 8
UEFA Conference League, State of Play: Matchday 6
Date: Thursday, December 18, 2025 The Mission: Top 8 for safety, Top 24 for survival.
As we head into the final night of the League Phase, Strasbourg (1st, 13 pts) is the only team to have mathematically secured their place in the Round of 16. Behind them, it is absolute chaos.
Crystal Palace: The Chasers (9th Place, 9 pts)
- The Situation: Palace sits at the head of the “chasing pack” on 9 points, trailing the Top 8 by just a single point.
- The Scenario:
- Must Win: A victory against KuPS takes them to 12 points.
- The Help: They need at least one of the teams on 10 points (AEK Athens, Samsunspor, Sparta Praha, Rayo Vallecano, Mainz) or Raków (11 pts) to drop points.
- Goal Difference: Palace has a solid GD (+5), which could be the tiebreaker if they finish level on points with teams like Mainz (+2) or Rayo (+3).
- The Risk: A draw leaves them on 10 points, likely condemning them to the Knockout Playoff round (9th-24th) and adding two extra games to their February calendar.
The “Gold Zone”: Holding On (2nd – 8th)
These teams are currently in the automatic Round of 16 spots but are under huge pressure from Palace and others.
- 2. Shakhtar Donetsk (12 pts): Virtually safe, need a point to guarantee it.
- 3. Raków Częstochowa (11 pts): A win locks them in.
- 4-8. The 10-Point Club:AEK Athens, Samsunspor, Sparta Praha, Rayo Vallecano, Mainz 05.
- Note: Mainz (8th) is in the most danger, sitting on the edge with the lowest goal difference of the group (+2).
Matches That Will Decide The Table
1. Crystal Palace (9th) vs. KuPS (25th)
- Kickoff: 20:00 GMT, Selhurst Park
- Stakes: Huge for both.
- Palace: Win to push for Top 8.
- KuPS: Currently 25th (6 pts) and inside the elimination zone. They must win to jump over Lincoln Red Imps (24th, 7 pts) or others to survive in Europe. A loss or draw sends the Finns home.
2. Mainz 05 (8th) vs. Samsunspor (5th)
- The “Six-Pointer”: This is arguably the game of the night. Both teams are on 10 points.
- Scenario: The winner guarantees a Top 8 spot. The loser is at extreme risk of being leapfrogged by Crystal Palace (if Palace wins). A draw could leave both vulnerable depending on other results.
3. Rayo Vallecano (7th) vs. Drita (19th)
- Stakes: Rayo (10 pts) needs a win to stay in the Top 8. A slip-up here opens the door wide for Crystal Palace, Fiorentina, or AZ Alkmaar to steal their spot.
4. Fiorentina (11th) vs. Lausanne-Sport (16th)
- The Viola Threat: Fiorentina (9 pts) is level with Palace. If Palace slips up, or if multiple teams above lose, Fiorentina is ready to pounce. They likely need a big win to overturn goal difference if it comes down to tiebreakers.
The Elimination Zone (Bottom 12)
Teams ranked 25th-36th go home immediately.
The line is currently drawn at 7 points (24th place – Lincoln Red Imps).
- In Danger (Must Win): KuPS (25th, 6 pts) and Zrinjski Mostar (26th, 6 pts) are the only teams below the line with a realistic shot at survival. They need to win and hope teams on 7 points (Lech Poznań, Shkëndija, Sigma Olomouc, Universitatea Craiova, Lincoln Red Imps) lose.
- Virtually Eliminated: Breidablik (5 pts) needs a miracle (huge win + many results going their way).
- Officially Out: Dynamo Kyiv, Legia Warsaw, Slovan Bratislava, Hamrun Spartans, Aberdeen, Shelbourne, Shamrock Rovers, and Rapid Wien (0 pts) are all playing for pride only.
Summary for Palace Fans: Beat KuPS, and cheer for Samsunspor to beat Mainz (or vice-versa, avoiding a draw) and for Drita to upset Rayo.
