By Scott Kacsmar
The NBA continues a wild week with four games this Thursday night, including a TNT doubleheader with 76ers-Mavericks and Clippers-Warriors. We are looking at some of our favorite over/under props grouped by the markets for points, rebounds, assists, and three-point field goals.
Points – Over/Unders
Kristaps Porzingis (Wizards) – Under 22.5 Points vs. Raptors
Honestly, betting on any Wizards player is frustrating, because Kyle Kuzma’s high variance seems to rub off on his teammates as well. Kristaps Porzingis is anything but consistent himself, and the center is coming off a two-game absence for this one, the first matchup of the season between the Wizards and Raptors.
But this is a gut pick. The last four times Porzingis returned from an absence, he scored 19, 7, 21, and 17 points. He played at least 30 minutes (usually 35) in each game too, so easing him back by cutting down minutes was not the issue.
The Raptors also allow the 7th-fewest points to opposing centers, according to FantasyPros. As a member of the Mavericks last season, Porzingis scored 18 points in two meetings with the Raptors.
We will take the under on this one.
Myles Turner (Pacers) – Over 22.5 Points vs. Spurs
Turner is on a little hot streak as he has shot 72.3% from the field over his last three games, averaging 29.3 points per game in the process. He has not played against the Spurs this season, but this is the defense everyone wants a piece of. The Spurs allow the third-most points to centers (24.9) according to Fantasy Pros.
Generally speaking, the Spurs rank dead last in Defensive Rating and points per game allowed (122.4). The Spurs are back home after a grueling 9-game road stretch, but Turner did just score 24 points in both Dallas and Orlando.
We’ll trust the matchup and the big man to continue putting up points.
Kyrie Irving (Mavericks) – Under 24.5 Points vs. 76ers
It is early days, but the Mavericks are only 3-4 when Kyrie Irving plays since they acquired him in a blockbuster move. Irving has not scored more than 23 points in three straight games, and he has shot 37.5% from the field over the last two games, including Sunday’s blown 27-point lead to the Lakers.
It feels like the 76ers purposely rested Joel Embiid on Wednesday night to have him ready for this back-to-back game against a tougher opponent. Embiid leads a defense that is No. 2 in limiting scoring from point guards this season.
With Brooklyn, Irving has scored 30 and 23 points in two meetings against the 76ers this year. But he still has to play second fiddle to Luka Doncic and find a way to fit in this offense while playing a tough opponent. Chances are he will snap out of this shooting funk soon, but we are going to go contrarian and take his under in this one.
Rebounds – Over/Unders
Kawhi Leonard (Clippers) – Over 5.5 Rebounds vs. Warriors
Over his last 20 games since Leonard stopped doing a lot of load management, he has averaged 6.3 rebounds per game in 37.2 minutes per game. He has gone over 5.5 rebounds in 11-of-20 games, so close to a coin flip here.
But the Warriors allow an above-average number of rebounds to small forwards, and Leonard just had a game on Valentine’s Day with 33 points and 7 rebounds against the Warriors, who are still without Steph Curry.
Leonard has gone over 5.5 rebounds in 22-of-37 games (59.5%) this season. We’ll trust him to put in the effort and hit the over in this one too with the No. 6 Clippers (33-31) right on the heels of the No. 5 Warriors (32-30) in the Western Conference.
Assists – Over/Unders
Bradley Beal (Wizards) – Under 6.5 Assists vs. Raptors
Point guard Monte Morris (back) continues to be out for the Wizards, allowing for more opportunities for Bradley Beal to pick up the slack with assists.
Beal is averaging 7.7 assists per game over the last three games with 7 or 8 assists in each matchup. The matchup looks good here too as the Raptors allow an NBA-high 5.82 assists per game to shooting guards, according to FantasyPros.
But this is another case where we are going to go against logic and bank on Beal to finish under 6.5 assists. Why? Over these last three games where he is just barely clearing that figure, his teammates are 23-of-35 (65.7%) on his potential assist passes, according to NBA.com. That is a hot figure and not sustainable. In the last game out, Beal’s teammates were 7-of-9 on his potential assists, and Beal only ranked fifth on the Wizards with 28 passes made in the whole game.
Either by lack of opportunity with passes or regression to the mean with teammate shooting, we will take Beal’s under in this one. Beal has not gone four straight games with over 6.5 assists since January 3, 2022, and it is a streak he has only done three times in his 729-game career including playoffs.
Paul George (Clippers) – Over 4.5 Assists vs. Warriors
George’s ball movement against the Warriors just over two weeks ago was very helpful to LA’s victory. George’s teammates made a blistering 8-of-10 potential assists for him according to NBA.com. He will likely not enjoy that rate again, but getting to over 4.5 assists is something he has done in 25-of-47 games this season.
But George’s teammates were only 3-of-7 on his assists in the last outing against Minnesota. Look for the Clippers to bounce back, and the Warriors allow the third-most assists to shooting guards this season.
Three-Point Field Goals – Over/Unders
Luka Doncic (Mavericks) – Under 2.5 Threes Made vs. 76ers
Doncic may have the best three-point shooting highlight reel for anyone shooting under 34% from three for their career. He takes many, he misses many, but he can get hot and look really good doing it in the process. But the fact is Doncic ranks 125th in 3P% this season.
He has gone over 2.5 made threes in 27-of-53 games, so he is a coin flip to do it. He had three made threes in two games combined against the 76ers last year.
Going with our pick of Kyrie Irving going under in points earlier, we see this as a game where Doncic has to get creative with his shots to get production. The 76ers allow the second-fewest made threes to point guards this season. Doncic should have a good game, but that does not mean he will make over 2.5 threes in the process.
Kawhi Leonard (Clippers) – Over 2.5 Threes Made vs. Warriors
There are not many early lines available for player props for this Thursday slate, so we are double dipping with Leonard against the Warriors. By now, you might know the drill. The Warriors allow a lot of threes to perimeter players, and they are one of four defenses to allow over 3.0 made threes per game to small forwards according to FantasyPros.
Leonard is in a good groove right now with over 2.5 made threes in each of his last three games. He was also red hot with 7-of-9 shooting from three, his best game this season, against the Warriors just 16 days ago.
He will not give us that many threes again, but we will take over 2.5 for the final prop of the night.
