By Andrew Doherty
We’re already a quarter of the way through the NFL regular season. There’s already been a ton of ups and downs after four weeks, and this year has been full of surprises when it comes to individual player performances. So if you haven’t been hitting on your player props to this point, it’s understandable. Luckily for you, here at 365scores we have you covered with the top props for Week Five. Here are my top plays for the week:
Best NFL Prop Bets for Week 5
Joe Burrow over 273.5 yards passing
Baltimore’s secondary is one to target this year when looking at passing prop overs. The Ravens are allowing 315.3 passing yards per game so far this season, and their fortunes don’t figure to improve much this week against Burrow and the Bengals dynamic passing attack. Burrow has posted at least 275 passing yards in 3 of his 4 games this year, with the lone exception coming in Week Two against the Cowboys. Burrow will have his full complement of weapons at his disposal for Sunday Night’s showdown and his revamped offensive line appears to be starting to click. The arrow is pointing up on the Bengals offense after a slow start, and the Ravens certainly aren’t going to be the ones to slow them back down.
George Pickens over 37.5 yards receiving
We all knew it was coming, and last week it finally happened. The George Pickens breakout game just needed a little Kenny Pickett under center to get it going. Pickens recorded 6 catches for 102 yards last week, and once Pickett came into the game Pickens commanded a 30.7% target share. After seeing 156 air yards last week and averaging 118 air yards per game since Week Two, this number is simply too low for Pickens, even against a stout Bills defense.
Najee Harris under 51.5 yards rushing
I’ll start with some very surface-level analysis here: the Steelers OL is really bad, and the Bills DL is really good. That’s a bad enough combination for Najee, who might as well be running into a brick wall in this one. To make matters worse, the Steelers are two-touchdown underdogs in this game, so the negative game script will be working against Najee as well. With Pittsburgh likely to be trailing early and throwing often, it’s tough to see a scenario where this over hits.
Derrick Henry over 12.5 receiving yards
The Titans appear to be serious about getting Henry involved in the passing game. He posted a 25% target share in Week 4 and has a 23% target share over the last two weeks. Henry has earned 11 total targets over the past two games, which he turned into 8 receptions for 91 yards. The volume will be there for King Henry this week, especially with Treylon Burks set to miss the game due to injury. He might surpass this total on his first catch.
Saquon Barkley over 25.5 yards receiving
The Giants pass catchers have been dropping like flies and they really don’t have much available outside of Saquon this weekend. While Barkley has only exceeded this number twice so far this year, both times he didn’t come against defenses that are weak against the run. Both of the times he did exceed this number were against defenses that are stout against the run. While the Packers aren’t the best-run defenders, they are above league average. That would seemingly signal an uptick in pass game usage for Barkley, along with the additional targets due to the lack of other pass catchers.
Allen Robinson under 3.5 catches and/or under 38.5 yards receiving
You probably don’t need me to tell you just how disappointing A-Rob has been this year. What you may not know, is that a lot of the blame can be placed on the Rams offensive line, who have started 9 different players through 4 games. With Robinson being more of a downfield playmaker, there really hasn’t been any time for his routes to develop. Against emerging superstar Micah Parsons and the Dallas pass rush, that issue isn’t likely to go away this week. The Cowboys are likely to have Matt Stafford under duress all afternoon, and Allen Robinson will continue to be collateral damage until the Rams offensive line gets healthy.
Cooper Kupp over 8.5 catches
Anytime we can get a Cooper Kupp over at even money, we take it. He’s a black hole in the Rams offense when it comes to targets. You can take all of the logic applied to the Allen Robinson play above and insert it here for Kupp. Since he’s so effective at all three levels of the field, the Cowboys pass rush shouldn’t have much of an effect on Kupp. He’s a masterful route runner and is schemed to get open quickly. With the Rams unlikely to get much else going on offense this week, I’m willing to bank on Kupp seeing a ton of volume as usual and hitting this over.
