By Andrew Doherty
The 2023 NFL season is nearing its conclusion and as always, it feels like the end has come too soon. However, AFC and NFC Championship weekend is one of the best weekends of the year for football fans. It’s also one of the more profitable weekends in the NFL season for sportsbooks. As the number of games each week declines, the efficiency on each prop/line increases. As we saw last week after going 6-0 on picks featured in this weekly article, there are still some market inefficiencies to exploit and luckily for you I’ve gone through the props for the entire slate in search of the best value. Here’s what I like for this weekend:
Miles Sanders under 15.5 carries
Sanders has only exceeded this number in five of his last 12 games, including last week where he had the benefit of a very positive game script due to a blowout victory. This week he faces an elite San Francisco run defense in what projects to be a close game, thus forcing Philadelphia’s offense to throw more than they did last week. The 49ers like to control the clock and their defense has allowed the 5th fewest plays to opposing offenses. Keeping in mind that the Eagles will not only have some designed runs planned for Jalen Hurts but also have shown plenty of willingness to give Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott carries (27 combined carries last week between all 3 of them) it’s hard to envision Sanders hitting the over here.
Joe Mixon under 3.5 receptions
Mixon has been held under this number for two straight games. That may not seem like a lot, but it not only coincides with the Bengals most recent injury on the offensive line but also with increased usage for third down back Samaje Perine. Perine is a much better pass blocker than Mixon, and the Bengals issues along the offensive line have led to them leaning on Perine to help protect Joe Burrow. With Perine recording a 49% route run rate and also being asked to pass block frequently, the opportunities on passing downs simply aren’t there for Mixon. I’m hammering this under.
AJ Brown over 67.5 yards receiving
Although he missed the mark in last week’s blowout victory, Brown has hit this in 6 of his last 7 games. Brown, who’s averaging 84 yards per game this season, should be in store for a more favorable game script this week. The Eagles should be a little more pass heavy than usual against the 49ers elite run defense. On average, San Francisco’s secondary is giving up 2 20+ yard receptions per game.