By Andrew Doherty
It’s already Week Seven and the halfway point of the NFL regular season is starting to sneak up on us. We’ve got quite a few teams on their bye this week and there’s not a lot of meat on the bone when it comes to player props as a result. Not to worry though, I’ve still been able to find 4 high quality plays for Sunday’s matchups. Here are my favorites for this week:
Terry McLaurin over 50.5 yards receiving
It may seem counter intuitive but I actually expect for McLaurin’s production to be better with backup QB Taylor Heinicke. So, why would Terry McLaurin put up better numbers with a downgrade at quarterback? The answer is simple: target distribution. McLaurin has averaged 6.1 targets per game this year with Carson Wentz, compared to 8.5 per game in Heinicke’s 14 starts last season. As we saw in 2021 Heinicke tends to lock onto his number one receiver, as backup quarterbacks often do. McLaurin doesn’t just see more targets with Heinicke either, he also averages almost 1.5 more catches per game. Due Heinicke’s obvious limitations, the offense as a whole is schemed up to feature more high percentage throws. Facing a Packers defense that ranks 31st in defensive pass DVOA against number one wide receivers (28.8%), McLaurin is in a prime spot to smash the over here.
Nick Chubb over 77.5 yards rushing
In my not so humble opinion, this number is a classic over reaction to a down performance last week for the leagues leading rusher. Chubb, who has already amassed 649 yards rushing this year, was held to only 56 yards rushing last week in a blowout loss against the Patriots. Prior to being stone-walled against New England, Chubb had run for at least 87 yards in every game and had surpassed 100 yards rushing in 4 out of 5 games. After seeing only 12 carries last week when the Browns found themselves in a big deficit and passing often, Cleveland will return to making Chubb the focal point of their offense this week. Against a soft Baltimore defense, Chubb is a lock for 20 plus touches in this one.
Dameon Pierce over 64.5 yards rushing
Texans head coach Lovie Smith said this week that Pierce “needs to get at least 20 carries per game”. This is after giving him 26 carries last game, so you know he isn’t bluffing. Pierce, who is averaging 4.8 yards per carry this year, doesn’t have any real competition for touches on early downs and is practically guaranteed a heavy workload. The Raiders, who have allowed 81.8 rushing yards per game so far this year, will need to play the run much better than they have through the first six weeks if they’re going to hold Pierce to the under here.
Amari Cooper over 52.5 yards receiving
Cooper has seen 10+ targets in 4 games this year and 24 targets over the last 2 games. As 6.5 point underdogs on the road, it’s likely the Browns will end up in a pass heavy game script this week. Baltimore’s secondary is allowing 198.3 yards per game to opposing receivers, the third highest mark in the league. Cooper is averaging 58 yards per game this year and with a plus matchup against the Ravens should hit this over with plenty of breathing room.
