2026 NFL Awards: How to Bet on Coach of the Year Since We Know Mike Vrabel Isn’t Repeating

Scott Kacsmar10/06/2026 - 02:44 pm

OWINGS MILLS, MARYLAND - JUNE 09: Head coach Jesse Minter of the Baltimore Ravens walks off the field after Baltimore Ravens Mandatory Minicamp at Under Armour Performance Center on June 09, 2026 in Owings Mills, Maryland. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images)

We resume our look at the 2026 NFL awards with the Coach of the Year market, led by some connected names at the top as Jesse Minter (Ravens) is hoping to do a job on par with his former mentor John Harbuagh, who is taking over with the New York Giants. Cronyism is always strong in NFL coaching circles. Meanwhile, Mike Vrabel (Patriots) is almost certainly not going to repeat as Coach of the Year.

The 2025 winner has proven to be very controversial. I never thought Vrabel deserved the award in the first place for beating up on one of the easiest schedules in NFL history while Liam Coen led a Jacksonville team from 4-13 to 13-4 in his first season as a head coach.

The final vote was close too as Vrabel won the award with 19 votes to 16 for Coen. Mike Macdonald (8), Kyle Shanahan (6), and Ben Johnson (1) received the other first-place votes.

But we now know that Vrabel’s biggest fan/stan/wham-bam-thank-you-ma’am was NFL reporter Dianna Russini, who was a frequent mouthpiece for Vrabel in her reporting over the years as has been detailed since the accounts of their alleged affair surfaced in April. The saga played out like a soap opera before Russini resigned, and Vrabel had an awkward leave of absence during the final day of April’s NFL draft to get counseling for his marriage.

The NFL won’t be disciplining Vrabel over the affair, but it sure was a conflict of interest that Russini has been an Associated Press voter who had one of the 50 votes on Coach of the Year in the past, and she’s someone who could champion for Vrabel in the media to win such an award as well as voting for Drake Maye for MVP.

We can assume Russini has lost any voting privileges for 2026, but with allegations that this type of reporter-coach impropriety is nothing new in NFL circles, now you wonder just how many coaches are currying favor with voters.

Remember when longtime Jacksonville reporter Lynn Jones caught some flak for giving Liam Coen an encouraging, heartfelt message after the team’s playoff loss in January that went viral?

Lynn Jones of the Jacksonville Free Press News gave Liam Coen his flowers after the Jaguars' Wild Card loss to the Bills 🥹pic.twitter.com/khymRJ1MTH
— DraftKings (@DraftKings) January 11, 2026

Crazy to think that was considered inappropriate behavior between a coach and reporter as recently as January. But the good news from this is that Vrabel has the worst odds (+8000 at BetUS) to win Coach of the Year in 2026, so you can fully expect someone new to win the award, and hopefully someone that isn’t inside an insider.

[John Oliver voice]: And now, this. We already have analyzed the top rookies on offense and defense, and we’ve made our favorite picks for Offensive Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year (before the Myles Garrett trade to Los Angeles). We also looked at the Comeback Player of the Year and why Patrick Mahomes should win it.

Let’s break down the coaching market.

NFL Coach of the Year Betting Trends

Famously, the NFL’s Coach of the Year award often goes to someone who takes a non-playoff team to the playoffs. The award has come under criticism in recent years for awarding someone who overcame the lowest expectations instead of someone legitimately doing the best coaching job as evident by coaches like Bill Belichick and Andy Reid not frequently winning the award.

Long-term success hasn’t been great for the coach after winning this award lately as Matt Nagy (2018 Bears), John Harbaugh (2019 Ravens), Kevin Stefanski (2020 and 2023 Browns), Mike Vrabel (2021 Titans), and Brian Daboll (2022 Giants) were all fired from their jobs, most within four seasons since the award was won.

But with 10 new coaching positions this year, there’s a good chance someone will win it for improving a team that missed the playoffs in 2025.

In fact, here’s the breakdown of the last 41 winners since 1985 and what usually gets rewarded:

16 non-rookie coaches improved a bad team to the playoffs (Last: Mike Vrabel with 2025 Patriots)
12 rookie coaches took a non-playoff team to the playoffs in his first year (Last: Brian Daboll with 2022 Giants)
11 coaches led a team to the best record/top seed (Last: Mike Vrabel with 2021 Titans)
2 non-rookie coaches improved a bad team (Lindy Infante with 1989 Packers and Jimmy Johnson with 1990 Cowboys)

From these numbers, just under 30% of winners were rookie coaches, so you shouldn’t assume they’ll want to give it to one of the first-time coaches. But that idea of improving a bad team does account for over 75% of the winners, so that is usually the best way to expect a winner.

2026 NFL Coach of the Year Top Candidates

We already know we’re fading Mike Vrabel for obvious reasons besides his league-worst +8000 odds, but we would have said to fade him even if no affair allegations came out this offseason. This award is almost impossible to win in consecutive years, and the Patriots are a ripe regression candidate since the schedule should be harder in 2026.

With that said, since we had the stats breaking down coaches into types based on their experience level and the quality of team they’re coaching, we thought we’d group them together that way to go over the odds and who offers value and who to fade. We have four distinct groups for 2026.

All odds are from BetUS as of June 10, 2026.

Veterans Trying to Elevate Their New Team to the Playoffs

The following coaches are experienced, but they find themselves with a new team for 2026 that didn’t have a good ending in 2025:

John Harbaugh, Giants (+550)
Robert Saleh, Titans (+1000)
Mike McCarhty, Steelers (+1400)
Kevin Stefanski, Falcons (+1400)

I’d take this group over the field if I could. You have the odds-on favorite in John Harbaugh, who should bring discipline to a talented defense that drafted more talent with Arvell Reese and Colton Hood to go along with the second season for Abdul Carter. Jaxson Dart could always take off in Year 2 at quarterback after getting Malik Nabers and Cam Skattebo back.

Harbaugh needed a change of scenery in Baltimore after 18 seasons. The NFC East is in flux and could be winnable if Dart really takes his game to the next level, and I don’t love the hiring of offensive coordinator Matt Nagy, but they could have done worse. Harbaugh is an understandable favorite given his success with 12 postseasons in 18 years, and he only has one year under 8 wins when Joe Flacco tore his ACL in 2015.

There’s also a reason to like Robert Saleh getting his second shot after he Jets didn’t work out in Tennessee, a team that’s added a lot of new players, and Brian Daboll could be a decent offensive coordinator for second-year quarterback Cam Ward, who has Carnell Tate as his new WR1. I might sooner go for the Titans to win the AFC South (+850) odds because Ward could disproportionally get the credit for this improvement, but I get the Saleh odds.

Mike McCarthy in Pittsburgh shows the Steelers finally doing something different after 19 years of Mike Tomlin. He never had a losing season but he also hasn’t won a playoff game since the 2016 season. With McCarthy, there at least feels like a boom-or-bust potential here with reuniting him and Aaron Rodgers in his final season.

In Atlanta, Kevin Stefanski was one of the best hires in 2026. He’s won this award twice in Cleveland, and he’ll finally have great weapons again with Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Bijan Robinson. Quarterback is iffy, but between Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr., I expect Stefanski to make something work, and the NFC South is obviously winnable too.

(Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Rookie Coaches

We have six first-time NFL head coaches this season. Some are taking over bad teams while some have a core they’re quite familiar with and will try to elevate.

Jesse Minter, Ravens (+750)
Joe Brady, Bills (+1200)
Klint Kubiak, Raiders (+1600)
Todd Monken, Browns (+1600)
Jeff Hafley, Dolphins (+3500)
Mike LaFleur, Cardinals (+3500)

Well, good luck to the bottom four as things could be rough in 2026. You’re buried in good divisions, you don’t really know who your quarterback is other than the future being Fernando Mendoza in Vegas, and we’ll see if Malik Willis can get it done in Miami.

But Arizona has no quarterback in the tough NFC West, the Browns are replacing Myles Garrett with Jared Verse (downgrade in 2026 but maybe a brighter future), and the Dolphins lost their wide receivers from last year. Fading all four of those.

Finally, the Bills and Ravens moved on from their coaches, acknowledging they failed the Five-Year Rule with John Harbaugh and Sean McDermott. However, they didn’t exactly go out of the box, especially with Buffalo just promoting offensive coordinator Joe Brady.

Josh Allen likes Brady, but he’s also neutered some of the big plays in this offense with more running, short passes for YAC, and while it’s helped Allen in some ways, we still saw him implode with turnovers in the Denver playoff loss. It’s hard to see Brady improving the defense either as an offensive coach, so I’m definitely fading him as Coach of the Year as these moves almost never work well.

Minter is a good hire, but we’ll see how he differentiates himself from the Harbaughs as he coached under John with the Ravens in 2017-20. He was a defensive assistant/defensive backs coach before going to Michigan and the Chargers as Jim Harbaugh’s defensive coordinator where he had a lot of success.

The Ravens missed the playoffs on a Week 18 field goal miss last year, so if Lamar Jackson can stay healthy, they have a great shot to rebound right away and win the AFC North back.

We Missed the Playoffs Last Year, Please Forgive Me

Here are nine coaches who have experience but are trying to lift their non-playoff team to the tournament in 2026 after missing out last year together:

Kellen Moore, Saints (+1200)
Brian Schottenheimer, Cowboys (+1600)
Dan Campbell, Lions (+2200)
Aaron Glenn, Jets (+2400)
Shane Steichen, Colts (+2500)
Kevin O’Connell, Vikings (+2600)
Dan Quinn, Commanders (+2800)
Zac Taylor, Bengals (+3500)
Todd Bowles, Buccaneers (+4500)

Some of this group belongs on the hot seat for keeping their job in 2027 if things don’t go well this year. Yeah, we’re talking about Zac Taylor for sure in Cincinnati, but Aaron Glenn could be a two-and-done candidate in New York after going a whole first season without his defense getting an interception.

This is a tough group to pick from since you’re trying to fix problems you were already part of last year. Kevin O’Connell could be a nice choice if the Vikings rebound with Kyler Murray at quarterback, though he’s already won this award in 2024 when Dan Campbell probably deserved it more, and without a playoff win on his resume, voters might not be down for KOC getting a second COTY award.

But we have been noting that the Bengals and Lions have favorable schedules that should help them return to the playoffs in 2026. However, Taylor doesn’t get credit for much in Cincinnati, so I doubt he would if the team even went above expectations and won the No. 1 seed. That sounds more like Joe Burrow for MVP.

But with Campbell losing the vote 24-19 in 2024, a bounce-back year for the Lions could be his first award.

Candidates for Best Record/Top Seed

Finally, these 13 coaches will have a shot at leading their teams to a top seed or the best record in the NFL this year.

Jim Harbaugh, Chargers (+1800)
Ben Johnson, Bears (+2200)
Matt LaFleur, Packers (+2600)
Liam Coen, Jaguars (+2600)
Kyle Shanahan, 49ers (+3000)
Sean McVay, Rams (+3500)
Dave Canales, Panthers (+3500)
DeMeco Ryans, Texans (+3500)
Andy Reid, Chiefs (+5000)
Mike Macdonald, Seahawks (+6000)
Sean Payton, Broncos (+7500)
Nick Sirianni, Eagles (+7500)
Mike Vrabel, Patriots (+8000)

Remember, this is one of the weaker angles for winning this award as expectations are mostly high already for these teams. It’s harder to exceed those expectations. Also, I just want to point out I don’t think Dave Canales is competing for the best record with the Panthers. He just didn’t fit in any other group and I didn’t want to make a fifth only for him.

But people generally fade these coaches from winning the award. For example, if Sean Payton couldn’t get a single first-place vote in 2025 for overtaking the Chiefs and winning the AFC West with a 14-3 record (No. 1 seed), then what could he possibly do with the same roster plus Jaylen Waddle this year to win it?

Likewise, Mike Macdonald is coming off the Super Bowl win, which elevates him after his defense looked great, but short of going 15-2 or better when the Rams are favored in the NFC, it’s hard to see him winning this.

Speaking of the Rams, McVay hasn’t won this award since his 2017 rookie year when he turned the Rams around. Since then, they’ve done a lot of big trades for proven talent, and they’ve done it again with Trent McDuffie and Myles Garrett. Hard to see McVay winning it for those players playing well as you’d expect.

I’m not sure Liam Coen and Ben Johnson can improve or even repeat their success last year. A lot of close wins, especially for the Bears, who trailed in the final 2:00 and won seven times, by far an NFL record. But hats off to Johnson if he can win the NFC North again with a more efficient Caleb Williams in Year 2 together.

Jim Harbuagh leading the way with +1800 odds here is interesting as the AFC West odds currently show the Chargers tied at +180 with the Chiefs, and the Broncos are third at +210. The Chargers really did in the Chiefs last year with a sweep in games that saw Xavier Worthy (in Brazil in Week 1) and Patrick Mahomes suffer serious injuries.

Harbaugh’s reputation (he won the award in 2011 with the 49ers) would help his case, but he’d almost certainly have to win the AFC West and probably the top seed to get this win. If you like the Chargers that much, then him at +1800 might be the best odds you can get on something Chargers related. It’s better than trusting them to win the Super Bowl at +1600 odds.

Final Thoughts on NFL’s Coach of the Year Award

Let’s summarize where things stand for the 2026 Coach of the Year award:

John Harbaugh (+550) is a reasonable betting favorite with the Giants as his past success combined with a healthier roster and potential Year 2 quarterback elevation could win the NFC East.
Robert Saleh (+1000) and Kevin Stefanski (+1400) also offer good value as retreads in better situations, which is one of the best groups to draw from for this award.
We’re fading four rookies in tough spots, including Klint Kubiak (Raiders), Jeff Hafley (Dolphins), Mike LaFleur (Cardinals), and Todd Monken (Browns).
While the Bills and Ravens finally made the switch at coach, Buffalo didn’t change enough in promoting Joe Brady, so if we’re backing a rookie to win the award, it has to be Jesse Minter (+750) in Baltimore.
While the 2026 schedules should help the Lions and Bengals get back on track in the playoffs, we know Zac Taylor won’t get any credit for it. But Dan Campbell (+2200) hasn’t won this award, and after being snubbed in 2024 for Kevin O’Connell, this could be his year in Detroit.
Coaches competing for the best record are unlikely to win the award for not significantly surpassing their high expectations, so we’re fading the likes of Sean McVay, Mike Macdonald, and Sean Payton.
Jim Harbuagh (+1800) has maybe his best chance to win the AFC West and win this award for the second time.
Fade Mike Vrabel (+8000) at all costs. In fact, we should get a refund in bonus bets for our Liam Coen 2025 futures.

But if I’m picking one today to win Coach of the Year in 2026, I’m going with Jesse Minter in Baltimore.

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