We’re only three weeks into the 2026 NFL season, but the major awards are already starting to take shape.
Josh Allen remains at the front of the MVP race, although Brock Purdy is quickly closing the gap. Patrick Mahomes is also back in the conversation, adding another chapter to his long-running rivalry with Allen. The two quarterbacks have battled for AFC supremacy for years, and both are once again making their case for the league’s biggest individual award.
Elsewhere, Jahmyr Gibbs and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are putting together strong cases for Offensive Player of the Year, while Mahomes has also emerged as the clear favorite for Comeback Player of the Year.
Then there are the rookies. Jeremiyah Love has moved to the front of the Offensive Rookie of the Year race, while Jets edge rusher David Bailey has made an early impression on the defensive side.
Here’s where the five major awards stand after three weeks.
The MVP Race Has a Real Challenger
Josh Allen is still the player everyone is chasing, but Brock Purdy is starting to close the gap. The Bills are 3-0 and Allen has already accounted for 11 total touchdowns, including five through the air and six on the ground, the most of any Quarterback this season. He wasn’t at his best in Week 3, throwing two interceptions against the Chargers, but he still found the end zone twice as a runner.
FanDuel has Allen at +170 for MVP, comfortably ahead of Brock Purdy (+550) and Lamar Jackson (+600).
Purdy, however, has been one of the biggest movers on the board.
Almost nobody saw this coming. Before the season, BetMGM had Purdy at +2200, and SI picked him as the best-value quarterback bet in the MVP market. Now he sits between +450 and +550 depending on the book, and ESPN’s tracker lists him among the biggest week-over-week movers, from 13-1.
The surge started in the season opener, when Purdy threw three touchdown passes in a win over the Rams. In Week 3 he went one better, throwing for 297 yards and four touchdowns against the Cardinals while adding another 34 yards on the ground. San Francisco is 3-0 and has already beaten both Seattle and Los Angeles, giving the 49ers an early advantage in the NFC West race.
He also has a strong supporting cast. The 49ers added receivers Mike Evans and Christian Kirk and drafted Ole Miss receiver De’Zhaun Stribling, and tight end George Kittle has completed a 243-day recovery from a torn Achilles. That gives Purdy more weapons than he has had in years.
The track record is there too. Purdy finished fourth in MVP voting in 2023 and was the betting favorite late that season before a bad prime-time game against the Ravens. If he wins this year, he would be the first 49er to take the award since Steve Young in 1994.
There is a case against him. ESPN’s Seth Walder has noted that Kyle Shanahan’s system can work against a quarterback when voters weigh MVP credit, and Purdy is still well behind Allen in the odds. But if the 49ers keep winning and Purdy keeps producing at this level, he is the player most likely to close the gap.
Jahmyr Gibbs and Jaxon Smith-Njigba have also started to attract MVP attention, a storyline we cover in the Offensive Player of the Year section below.
Our pick: Josh Allen
Top contender: Brock Purdy
Wildcard: Jahmyr Gibbs
Our pick: Josh Allen
Top contender: Brock Purdy
Wildcard: Jahmyr Gibbs
The Reigning Offensive Player of The Year Has Company
Offensive Player of the Year is already shaping up as a tight race, with three players separated by almost nothing in the odds.
Jahmyr Gibbs is at the front of the group.
After signing a deal that made him the highest-paid running back in NFL history, Gibbs has wasted little time showing why Detroit was willing to pay him. He entered Week 3 with 299 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns through two games, before adding 99 rushing yards, 65 receiving yards and three touchdowns against the Jets.
That gives him more than 300 rushing yards, 150 receiving yards and six touchdowns through three weeks.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba isn’t far behind.
The Seahawks receiver won the award last season after catching 119 passes for 1,793 yards and 10 touchdowns, and he’s picked up where he left off. Smith-Njigba has seen at least 11 targets in every game and is averaging 15.0 yards per catch.
Then there’s Kenneth Walker III.
Walker opened the season with 173 rushing yards and two touchdowns against the Broncos and became the only player in the last 40 seasons to record at least 175 scrimmage yards in each of his team’s first two games.
According to SI, Gibbs, Smith-Njigba and Walker are all priced at +650 or shorter. Bijan Robinson (+1200), Ja’Marr Chase (+1500) and Derrick Henry (+1700) are among the next group.
The recent history of the award also gives these players a reason for optimism. Four receivers and three running backs have won Offensive Player of the Year over the past seven seasons.
Our pick: Jahmyr Gibbs
Top contender: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Wildcard: Kenneth Walker III
The Comeback Story Voters Have Circled
Patrick Mahomes has quickly become the player to beat for Comeback Player of the Year.
He’s the odds-on favorite at sportsbooks, with prices ranging from -133 to -240, and his performance in Week 2 certainly helped his case. Mahomes threw for 382 yards and three touchdowns in that game, and he was perfect on play-action passes in a win over the Dolphins. His MVP odds have improved too, moving from 15-1 to +850 at ESPN’s tracker, which puts him in the conversation for both awards.
The bigger part of his case is what happened before this season. Mahomes tore his ACL and LCL in December, and his 2025 season ended with career lows as a starter: 3,587 passing yards and 22 touchdowns. The Chiefs also missed the playoffs for the first time since 2014. A bounce-back year from a player of his stature is exactly the kind of story voters reward.
History is on his side. Quarterbacks have historically dominated this award, with 17 of the last 25 winners playing the position, although Christian McCaffrey ended a seven-year run of quarterbacks winning last season.
Daniel Jones is the main challenger. The Colts quarterback was expected to return by Week 1 after suffering an Achilles injury in Week 14 last season. Kyler Murray is another name to watch after moving to Minnesota following his release by Arizona. Micah Parsons could enter the conversation later in the season, with his expected return from a torn ACL and meniscus procedure coming in Week 6 against Dallas.
Our pick: Patrick Mahomes
Top contender: Daniel Jones
Wildcard: Micah Parsons
A No. 1 Pick Isn’t Leading The Offensive Rookie Race
The Offensive Rookie of the Year race hasn’t gone quite the way many expected.
Cardinals running back Jeremiyah Love is currently at the top of the market, with odds as long as +430, which gives him an implied probability of roughly 19%.
It isn’t exactly a runaway, though.
Love is playing behind a questionable offensive line and was already dealing with an ankle injury heading into Week 1. His biggest advantage right now is opportunity and volume.
The more surprising name is Fernando Mendoza.
The Raiders selected Mendoza No. 1 overall after he won the Heisman Trophy, but his odds slipped from +510 to +675 after Kirk Cousins was named the starting quarterback. With Las Vegas winning games, Mendoza has remained on the bench.
Quarterbacks have won Offensive Rookie of the Year twice in the last three seasons, but the last No. 1 overall pick to win the award was Kyler Murray in 2019.
For Mendoza to get back into this race, he probably needs to get onto the field.
Seahawks running back Jadarian Price is another name worth keeping an eye on. The 32nd overall pick has been described by Covers as a serious challenger to Love, while running backs have won four of the last 12 Offensive Rookie of the Year awards.
Our pick: Jeremiyah Love
Top contender: Jadarian Price
Wildcard: Fernando Mendoza, if he takes over
The Defensive Rookie Race is Already Narrowing
David Bailey has quickly established himself as the early name to beat for Defensive Rookie of the Year.
The Jets edge rusher was selected No. 2 overall and opened the season at +450 before moving to +300 at DraftKings. His consensus odds are now around +361, which gives him an implied probability of roughly 21.7%.
Through two weeks, Bailey had seven tackles, eight quarterback pressures, two sacks and a forced fumble.
The position also works in his favor. Edge rushers have won five of the last seven Defensive Rookie of the Year awards.
Cowboys safety Caleb Downs is the main challenger at around +550.
NFL executives and scouts selected Downs as their preseason Defensive Rookie of the Year, while Dallas traded up to No. 11 to select him. The one thing working against him is history: a safety hasn’t won the award in more than two decades.
Dolphins linebacker Jacob Rodriguez is another name worth watching. The second-round pick is around +800 to +900 and recorded 14 tackles in Miami’s Week 1 loss.
Last year’s winner, linebacker Carson Schwesinger, began the season at +2800, so there’s plenty of time for the market to change.
Rueben Bain Jr. has gone the other way. The preseason favorite has no sacks so far, with his odds falling from +850 to around +2500.
Our pick: David Bailey
Top contender: Caleb Downs
Wildcard: Jacob Rodriguez
How We Made Those Picks
The picks are based on four main factors: performance so far this season, sportsbook odds, historical voting trends and each player’s health and schedule outlook.
The weighting is:
- 40%: Current-season performance
- 30%: Market odds
- 20%: Historical voting trends
- 10%: Health and schedule
Odds from FanDuel, DraftKings and Kalshi were considered alongside reporting and analysis from FanDuel Research, SI, FOX Sports, Covers, ESPN, Yahoo Sports, Sports Betting Dime and NFL.com.
The odds are being used as a snapshot of the current awards market, rather than as betting advice.
These predictions will change as the season goes on, so we’ll revisit the races throughout the year.
Odds are accurate as of September 30, 2026, and can vary between sportsbooks.
FAQS
When are the NFL awards announced?
The NFL awards are announced at NFL Honors during Super Bowl week in February 2027.
Who votes on the NFL awards?
A nationwide panel of 50 Associated Press members votes on the major NFL awards.
Who won Offensive Player of the Year last season?
Jaxon Smith-Njigba won Offensive Player of the Year last season.
Who won the rookie awards last season?
Tetairoa McMillan won Offensive Rookie of the Year, while Carson Schwesinger won Defensive Rookie of the Year.
Who is the 2026 MVP favorite?
Josh Allen currently leads the MVP market, with Brock Purdy among the closest challengers.
