The NFL had a wild card weekend that lived up to its name, at least on the NFC side of the bracket. All three games saw a trailing team score a game-winning touchdown after the two-minute warning. The Bears have been masters of that all season, but the Rams and 49ers also pulled it off on the road to take care of Carolina and Philadelphia.
That’s right. We’ll have a new champion again in a month as the Eagles are out. No more talking about the offense forgetting to do anything in the second half. They also fired offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo on Tuesday, so that ends that saga.
But this divisional round is also about the greatness of the NFC West in 2025. Last season, we hyped up as the 2024 NFC North as maybe the best division in NFL history with the Lions (15-2), Vikings (14-3), and Packers (11-6). The problem is those teams went 0-3 in the playoffs, hurting their legacy as an all-time great division.
But here comes the 2025 NFC West with the Seahawks (14-3), Rams (12-5), and 49ers (12-5) all still alive in the divisional round with a third meeting to come between the 49ers and Seahawks. Seattle started and ended its regular season with the 49ers. Now it’ll just hope it doesn’t start and end its postseason against Kyle Shanahan’s most resilient team.
The Rams are in Chicago in what could be the shootout of the postseason, or at least the most thrilling finish as the Bears are must-see TV in the fourth quarter while the Rams have had issues closing games. That’s a new matchup we haven’t seen in a meaningful game in a long time. In fact, this is only the third time since 1990 that the Bears and Rams will meet in a season where both made the playoffs.
For what it’s worth, the Seahawks (+270 at FanDuel) and Rams (+320) lead the field in the best odds to win Super Bowl LX while the Bears (+1200) and 49ers (+2000) bring up the rear among the remaining eight teams. But crazier upsets have happened than either of these would be.
Let’s preview both NFC divisional round matchups with the latest odds, stats, and keys to victory. It’s worth noting both conferences have the same matchups with a No. 6 seed taking on a No. 1 seed and a No. 5 seed taking on a No. 2 seed.
Table of Contents
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-7, O/U 44.5)
The No. 6 San Francisco 49ers (13-5) will take on the No. 1 Seattle Seahawks (14-3) this Saturday night in Seattle. It’s a rematch from Week 18, which was Seattle’s last game as the 13-3 win in San Francisco helped the team get the first-round bye. They also get an extra day of rest here as the 49ers had to play Sunday in Philadelphia and are on the road again this Saturday.
The 49ers are a 7-point underdog, the largest spread for Kyle Shanahan in the playoffs, topping only last week when he won as a 6-point underdog in Philadelphia. But the Seahawks are a tougher test, a team that knows them well, and there won’t be any George Kittle to help the team out.
On the other hand, Sam Darnold is the wild card in this matchup as he’s yet to score more than 13 points against the 49ers this year, and this is the biggest game of his career.
The Last Matchup
2025, Week 18: Seahawks 13, 49ers 3
You don’t have to go far to find the last meeting between these teams. It was 14 days before this Saturday’s rematch with the No. 1 seed on the line. The Seahawks dominated the game in yards (361-173), first downs (23-9), time of possession (37:48 to 22:12), and the 49ers scored their fewest points (3) since Kyle Shanahan’s debut game in 2017.
It would have been worse on the scoreboard than 13-3 had the Seahawks not missed two makeable field goals. Conversely, with each team only having eight drives, the score was misleading both ways with every mistake magnified. The 49ers likely score a touchdown if Christian McCaffrey didn’t have a pass go off his hands near the goal line for a back-breaking interception down 13-3 in the fourth quarter. That was the only drive of the game for the 49ers that gained more than 30 yards too.
For that matter, Seattle’s only touchdown drive came from 35 yards out, so neither offense was necessarily great. But it did come easier for Seattle, which held CMC to a season-low 57 yards from scrimmage.
The Seahawks ran the ball well (180) and Darnold did a good job of dinking and dunking. Could have been better in the red zone. The 49ers struggled rushing (32 yards on 10 carries by the backs) without left tackle Trent Williams, who is back. No receiver had more than 35 yards.
If you go back to the Week 1 matchup, Purdy had a couple of interceptions in that one, but Jake Tonges saved him on a game-winning touchdown after Kittle left the game injured. Ricky Pearsall also had a big game with 108 yards, so the 49ers missed him in Week 18 and we’ll see if he can return for Saturday.
Almost no one’s had an answer for Jaxon Simth-Njigba this season. He had 124 and 84 yards in the two games against the 49ers.
But at the end of the day, it’s a fact that the only two games this season where Seattle failed to score at least 18 points were the San Francisco games where they had 13 each time. We’ve also seen Seattle allow 38 and 37 points at home to the Buccaneers and Rams this year, so that defense isn’t bulletproof at home.
Injury Watch
The hits keep coming for the 49ers as they’ll have to go the rest of the way without tight end George Kittle, who tore his Achilles on Sunday. Jake Tonges has played well in relief this year, but he’ll have to play the best game of his career against this defense.
At least the 49ers have Trent Williams back at left tackle. We’ll have to wait and see on Ricky Pearsall, who missed these last two games after playing so well to end the season. That’s why Demarcus Robinson had over 100 yards in Philly.
Of course, the 49ers have to win this game without their two best defenders, Nick Bosa and Fred Warner. At least in Warner’s case, he’ll have a chance to play again this postseason if the team keeps advancing, but don’t expect to see him this weekend. Starting safety Ji’Ayir Brown is also a longshot to play with a hamstring injury suffered on Sunday.
There’s been a fan theory that the electrical substation located next to the 49ers’ practice facility is the cause for so many injuries if you believe EMF (Electromotive Force) can be harmful. But the fact is the 49ers have had their share of injury-plagued seasons under Kyle Shanahan, and he’s still got the team this far.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks should be as healthy as possible after the bye week. Offensive tackle Charles Cross, fresh off a $104 million extension, should be back for the first time since Week 15 against the Colts.
Stats to Know
Here are some relevant and informative statistics for these teams heading into this matchup:
- In the last 40 years, teams with a rest advantage of 8+ days like the Seahawks have over the 49ers are 7-0 in the playoffs. (Note: there’s usually a 7-day advantage for the No. 1 seed but the Seahawks get an extra day because the 49ers played on Sunday and have to play again Saturday.)
- Sam Darnold is 4-13 as a starter against teams that win at least 12 games, including a 4-2 record this season (0-2 with 2024 Vikings).
- In those 17 games, Darnold had one 300-yard passing game (2021 Panthers at Cowboys), and two games with a 100.0+ passer rating.
- Darnold is the first quarterback in NFL history to win 14 games in consecutive seasons for different teams (2024 Vikings, 2025 Seahawks).
- The Seahawks are a league-best 12-5 ATS with the highest average margin of victory (+11.2 points).
- The Seahawks have outperformed the spread by an average of +7.1 points, best in the NFL.
- The Seahawks led all NFL teams with a +191 scoring differential this season.
- Of the last 18 teams to have a scoring differential of at least +190 points, only one won the Super Bowl (2016 Patriots were +191).
- The 49ers are 11-6-1 ATS (+2.8 points above the spread on average, ranked sixth).
- The 49ers are 3-4 ATS as an underdog this season.
- Home-field Disadvantage? Under coach Mike Macdonald since 2024, the Seahawks are 6-11 ATS as a home team, tied for the third-worst record. In that same time, Seattle is a league-best 12-4-1 ATS on the road.
- The Seahawks have lost three games by a combined 9 points this season.
- The 2025 Seahawks are the 11th team in NFL history to win 14 games and have a scoring differential of negative single digits in their losses (eight of the first 10 teams won the championship or played a Conference Championship Game; only the 2006 Chargers and 2011 Packers were one-and-done in the playoffs).
- The over is 5-2 when Seattle is a home favorite this season.
- Since 2023 (Brock Purdy era), the 49ers are 2-5 ATS as a road underdog, the third-worst record in the NFL.
- Since 2023, the 49ers are 7-8 ATS with a rest disadvantage.
- The Seahawks had multiple giveaways in all three losses this year (8-0) with 0-1 giveaways.
- The Seahawks are 1-2 when they allow more than 335 yards of offense.
- Despite only allowing 17 points, Seattle’s Week 1 loss to the 49ers was its third-worst game of the season in defensive EPA. The 49ers scored 17 points on 9 drives and missed a 27-yard field goal and had a 36-yard field goal blocked with a kicker (Jake Moody) who is no longer on the team.
- Among 29 teams since 1991 to win at least 14 games, the 2025 Seahawks rank 28th in third down conversion rate on offense (39.8%). The only other offense under 40% was the 2003 Patriots (37.0%), who were one of seven teams on the list to win the Super Bowl.
- Among 39 teams in the Super Bowl era to win at least 14 games, the 2025 Seahawks are tied for the second-worst turnover differential (-3). They’re tied with the 2025 Broncos and 2022 Chiefs (won Super Bowl).
- Among 13 teams to win 14+ games and have a turnover differential of no better than +8, 9 didn’t win the Super Bowl, 1 won the Super Bowl (2022 Chiefs), and we’ll see on the 2025 Patriots (+3), 2025 Broncos (-3), and 2025 Seahawks (-3).
- Seattle’s defense is No. 1 on third down (32.1%).
- San Francisco’s offense is No. 1 on third down (49.8%).
- Seattle’s offense is No. 21 at scoring touchdowns in the red zone while San Francisco’s defense is No. 12 in the red zone.
- Since 2002 in playoff games that are a third division matchup, the home team is 20-13 SU (60.6%) with 10 straight wins going back to the 2021 playoffs. The home team is 14-19 ATS.
- Home teams favored by 5-to-9 points in division playoff rematches since 2002 are 9-3 SU and 4-8 ATS.
- Brock Purdy now has as many game-winning drives in the playoffs (4) as he has in the regular season in his career.
- Under Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers are 0-50 when trailing by more than 7 points in the fourth quarter.
- The 49ers are 5-2 at game-winning drive opportunities and 7-2 in close games with 6 saves and 0 blown leads.
- The Seahawks are 4-3 at game-winning drive opportunities and 5-3 in close games with 2 saves and 2 blown leads (49ers, Buccaneers).
The Keys to Victory
What are the factors that should lead to a victory for each team this weekend?
49ers – Experience and Resiliency
The 49ers have been a mentally tough team all season long, overcoming many injuries and winning 13 games without many of their star players along the way. It’s a tough task to go into Seattle and win another game on a short week against a rested team, but if anyone can do it this year, it’s these 49ers who have already won at Seattle in Week 1 and have successfully kept the Seahawks down on the scoreboard twice, including Week 18.
For all the bad talk about the San Francisco defense, coordinator Robert Saleh is coaching his tail off without Bosa and Warner. They don’t get many turnovers or sacks, but they still find a way to keep the score down at a reasonable amount in most games. The offense is also usually capable of getting into a shootout, and this year, the 49ers are winning the close games and Purdy has obviously shown he can get it done in the postseason.
But if the 49ers can get a timely sack or takeaway, that could be the difference on Saturday. We’ve already seen it this year with Seattle’s losses with Darnold fumbling in the red zone against the 49ers, a deflected interception against Tampa Bay, and he threw four picks against the Rams. The 49ers haven’t had a takeaway in three straight games, so maybe they’re due for a lucky bounce like the one the Seahawks got off McCaffrey’s hands in Week 18, the only turnover in that game.
Getting Williams back is big. Getting Pearsall back would be big too to give Purdy a solid enough group of weapons with Jauan Jennings, Demarcus Robinson, Jake Tonges, and CMC. Jennings threw that touchdown pass to CMC on a trick play, so you never know if the 49ers have another trick up their sleeves to get over a very good defense that isn’t invincible. That’s not quite the Legion of Boom out there in 2025.
If the 49ers can clean up some of the turnovers and Saleh can force Darnold into issues in the biggest game of his life, then they have a real shot to pull this one out. There is also precedent for it as the 2010 Jets came back from a 45-3 destruction at the hands of the Patriots only to beat them 28-21 in the divisional round a month later. The 2007 Giants also upset the Cowboys in Dallas after getting swept by them in the regular season.
These division games are tough, the rest/health differential is big, but the 49ers have a coach who is 9-4 in the playoffs and has been to the Super Bowl twice already. They have enough to make this one very interesting.
Seahawks – Trust Your Defense and Running Game, Sam
It’s a good thing Sam Darnold got some playoff experience last year with the Vikings against the Rams. Of course, the game was a nightmare, a 27-9 loss where he took 9 sacks and lost 82 yards on them. But he got to feel what it’s like in a real playoff atmosphere, and he also got a look at these 49ers two weeks ago in a game they won for the No. 1 seed.
The 49ers do not have anyone with 5.0 sacks to worry about, so the chances of him going down in a blaze of sacks like last year are slim to none. But he has to protect the ball and not give the 49ers breaks with field position because of turnovers. He needs to trust his running game too, which did really well in San Francisco, so look for the 49ers to try to contain that better. They also gave up over 100 yards to Saquon Barkley on Sunday, so it’s an issue.
These huge NFC West rematches late in the season have gone Seattle’s way against the Rams and 49ers. That’s good practice for big games like this where your season literally is on the line. But to say there’s no worries from those games because they were wins would be foolish. The Seahawks needed a punt return touchdown and three 2-point conversions, including maybe the luckiest one in history on that deflected ball getting picked up, to beat the Rams in overtime. Then the 13-3 win in San Francisco wasn’t exactly stellar finishing on offense.
You can throw the spread out when it’s a division rivalry like this. The Seahawks are going to have to have a good start and not get behind because of some rust with the week off. Don’t make Darnold start pressing because he’s playing from behind in the playoffs.
Live up to your standard of being a team that can play great defense, get the ball to JSN, and lean on the run. It shouldn’t be a shootout; that might come later in the playoffs for Seattle. But for Saturday, just play a little conservatively and there will be opportunities against that San Francisco defense to exploit.
Best Bets and Prediction
Let’s not forget the 49ers have this insane streak going where they’ve had 22 straight seasons either finishing with a non-winning record to miss the playoffs (15 times), or they’ve gone to the NFC Championship Game or Super Bowl (7 times). They’re one win away from extending that streak to a 23rd season, but this one is going to be tough.
It’s really the health and rest disadvantages that hurt the 49ers here. Can they fill up the tank again on a short week and beat a very good team that’s been so hard to beat this year coming off their bye? Getting Pearsall back would help, and one could argue that Kittle has been so underwhelming in the playoffs – one way he can’t touch Gronk or Travis Kelce – that it’s not as big of a loss as getting Trent Williams back at tackle is a gain from Week 18.
I’d trust Purdy in a close playoff game against Darnold until proven otherwise too. The only fear is the Seahawks get up huge early like they were doing to teams earlier this season, but that really hasn’t been the case the second half of the season.
Even when the Seahawks blasted the Vikings 26-0 on the scoreboard, that was a 3-0 game going to the 2-minute warning before Max Brosmer threw an abysmal pick-six and the floodgates opened. Then the 37-9 win at Atlanta, that was a 6-6 game at halftime before the Seahawks had a kickoff return touchdown and a Bijan Robinson fumble in the red zone led to another touchdown. Then the rout was on.
This Seattle team was trailing at home in the final minute to the Colts with Philip Rivers just five days after he came out of retirement on his 44th birthday. While the Seahawks won 27-10 in Carolina, that was a 3-3 game at halftime before mistakes helped Seattle to three touchdown drives that all started inside the opponent 30. Too easy.
The point is this Seattle team has not been that dominant for two months now. If you don’t help them out with short fields, (again, their turnover differential is negative; that’s not good), you have a great shot to hang around with them.
That’s why I think 49ers +7 is the best bet here. Darnold makes me nervous, the Seahawks have not been as dominant at home, and I trust Shanahan and Purdy in games like this. Remember, 75% of his playoff losses are blowing a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter, and the only other game was the 2022 NFC Championship Game when Purdy’s elbow blew up on the opening dive.
Seattle should probably win with the better defense and home-field advantage, but the 49ers keeping it close and pulling it out late wouldn’t be a big surprise.
Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears (+3.5, O/U 48.5)
The No. 5 Los Angeles Rams (13-5) will take on the No. 2 Chicago Bears (12-6) this Sunday evening in Chicago. It’s the league’s No. 1 scoring offense in the Rams against the defense that allowed the most points by any team in this year’s playoff field.
That might sound like a mismatch, which is why the Rams are a 3.5-point road favorite. However, it’s going to be cold for the team from Los Angeles, and they’re going up against The Iceman in Caleb Williams, who already has seven comeback wins in the final 2:00 this year. We know the Rams have blown a handful of close games, so things could be very interesting if Williams has the ball late in a one-score game as he seemingly does every week this season.
The Last Matchup
2024, Week 4: Bears 24, Rams 18
It’s been a minute, but these teams met early in the 2024 season when the Bears were off to a decent start and the Rams were struggling out of the gate. A rookie Caleb Williams completed 17-of-23 passes for 157 yards and a touchdown with 3 sacks taken. D’Andre Swift had 165 yards from scrimmage in a big day against the Rams.
Matthew Stafford was 20-of-29 for 224 yards with an interception and 3 sacks, losing a fumble too. He didn’t have his two starting wideouts that day (Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp).
That’s certainly the kind of game the Bears hope to force Stafford into Sunday, but it’s going to be a lot harder with Nacua and Davante Adams to defend.
Injury Watch
The Rams didn’t escape Carolina without any injuries. Matthew Stafford sprained his finger in the second quarter, which appeared to hurt him for a good stretch, but he should be okay. The Rams are hoping guard Kevin Dotson can get back in time for his first game since the Seattle loss. Corner Ahkello Witherspoon, who has sparingly played in six games this season, is done for the year with a shoulder injury.
The Bears are in worse shape injury-wise. They lost linebacker T.J. Edwards, a big blow for that corps. He was carted off against Green Bay. The Bears also lost rookie left tackle Ozzy Trapilo to a bad patellar injury that could alter his career. Big shoes to fill there at left tackle this week.
Stats to Know
Here are some useful and informative statistics for these teams heading into this matchup:
- The 2025 Bears have won an NFL record seven games after trailing in the final 2:00.
- The Rams have already allowed five game-winning drives this season, including two games where they blew second-half leads of 19 (Eagles) and 16 points (Seahawks) on the road.
- The Bears are just the fourth team to win a playoff game after trailing by 15 points in the fourth quarter, joining the 1972 Cowboys, 2002 49ers, and 2016 Patriots.
- The Rams are 2-5 at game-winning drive opportunities and 7-5 in close games with 7 saves and 3 blown leads.
- The Bears are 7-5 at game-winning drive opportunities and 9-5 in close games with 6 saves and 2 blown leads.
- The Rams are 12-6 ATS (+3.5 points above average) and the Bears are 11-7 ATS (+2.4 points above average).
- The Rams are 4-3 ATS as a road favorite this season.
- Chicago is 2-0 ATS as a home underdog under Ben Johnson (6-4 ATS as an underdog overall)
- Under Sean McVay, the Rams are 8-4 SU and 6-6 ATS as a road favorite of 3-to-4 points (5-1 SU in Stafford era since 2021).
- The Bears are 3-5 when they allow more than 24 points and 9-1 when they don’t.
- The Bears are 4-6 when they don’t rush for at least 140 yards (8-0 when they do).
- The Bears only have three games with multiple giveaways, including last week against Green Bay, and they are 2-1 in those games.
- The Bears are 9-0 when they get multiple takeaways on defense.
- Weakness vs. Weakness: The Rams are No. 17 on third down offense (39.6%) and the Bears are No. 22 on third down defense (40.8%).
- The Bears rank No. 27 in defensive pass pressure rate (31.6%) and the Rams are No. 5 (38.0%) according to NFL Pro.
- The Bears are No. 18 in EPA/pass (+0.07) against play-action passes, which the Rams use as frequently as anyone this year. Carolina, last week’s Rams’ opponent, was ranked No. 4 (-0.13) in EPA/pass against play-action. However, Stafford used play-action at the lowest rate of the season (16.3%) last week as the Rams used more 11 personnel than 13 personnel.
- Including the playoffs, Caleb Williams has the highest average time to throw (3.19 seconds) of any quarterback in 2025.
- Caleb Williams had the lowest CPOE (-14.0%) of any quarterback on wild card weekend.
- Through 11 games, the Rams allowed the fewest points in the NFL (16.3 points per game).
- Since Week 13 and including the playoffs, the Rams have allowed the third-most points in the NFL (ranked 27th at 28.3 points per game).
- The Rams are 1-3 on the road when they allow more than 135 rushing yards.
The Keys to Victory
What do these teams need to do to win this week?
Rams – Protect the Ball and Close the Game
This one’s pretty simple. The Rams shouldn’t have a hard time moving the ball on the ground or through the air as the Bears are 28th in net yards per pass and 29th in yards per carry allowed. You saw Jordan Love slice them up with four touchdown passes to four different wide receivers, which doesn’t bode well for Chicago guarding Adams and Nacua.
But the one thing the Bears have done well is force turnovers, getting a league-high 33 of them. Granted, they didn’t get any against the Packers last week, which was just the third time all year that’s happened. But the Bears get it done with interceptions and fumbles as well as anybody this year.
What’s been an issue for the Rams in recent weeks? They’re turning the ball over more. Stafford started this season with just two interceptions going into Week 13 at Carolina, but he has thrown seven since that game, including one last week and it was nearly a second before Nacua broke it up by playing defender.
We’ve seen the Rams cough up the ball 8 times in three losses against the Falcons, Panthers, and 49ers this year, so if they get into turnover problems on the road, that’s an easy path to Chicago winning in upset style.
Otherwise, it just comes down to closing out the game, something the Rams haven’t been great at this year as they realistically could be 18-0 if they were elite at closing these games. They’ve had at least a fourth-quarter tie in every game played. But giving up five game-winning drives is a bad sign against a quarterback who has relished those moments all year and can tie the record for game-winning drives in a season with his eighth.
That’s why McVay has to have his guys paying attention to detail – short-yardage running game and kicking units better step up – and willing to be aggressive in the four-minute offense to put the game away and keep the ball out of Caleb’s hands. Keep it in Stafford’s to end the game, because you want no part of defending Williams in crunch time with four downs to make up for some of his inaccuracies.
Bears – Hang in There
From the Bears’ perspective, it’s win the turnover battle to make up for some of the mismatches you have on defense against that offense. Then on offense, run the football like you did so well in so many games this year or against the Rams last year too.
The weather is going to be nasty. We’re talking 10 degrees, negative wind chill, wind gusts, and possibly even snow. Doesn’t sound like a good night for the passing game, and while there is more attention paid to how a 37-year-old Stafford will handle the weather with a bad finger, let’s not forget Caleb Williams went to USC and doesn’t have a ton of cold-weather game experience. At least Stafford has played at Chicago late in the season in his career going back to Detroit.
Granted, the Rams have played one game under 30 degrees with Stafford since 2021. It was against the Jets last year, a 19-9 win where Stafford only threw for 110 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. This figures to be the first game played in under 20 degree temperatures in his 17-year career.
Williams has already played three games with the temperature under 20:
- 2024 at Green Bay: Threw for 141 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception, and led a game-winning drive in a 24-22 final in Week 18.
- 2025 at Green Bay: Threw for 177 yards, 2 touchdowns, and a game-ending interception in the end zone in a 28-21 loss.
- 2025 vs. Cleveland: Threw for 242 yards, 2 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, and made this unbelievable throw against an elite pass defense in 8-degree weather:
That Cleveland game probably answers any doubt you might have about Williams performing in the cold. But the playoffs are a different beast, so I think he just has to hang in there, protect the ball, lean on the ground game, then try to win the game in the fourth quarter by being the hero he’s been all season.
Best Bets and Prediction
It makes sense why the Rams are favored on the road. The Bears needed a miracle comeback just to get past Green Bay last week. However, if you had to pick a team this postseason that would blow a huge lead and a team that would make the comeback, you’d have to pick the Bears beating the Rams, right? Those blown leads in Philadelphia and Seattle should haunt the Rams for not getting the No. 1 seed and having to play in one of the coldest playoff games in NFL history here.
There are other reasons to lean towards the Bears: Their ability to run the ball in the cold, their takeaways on defense, the Rams’ recent struggles on defense, the Rams’ recent turnover issues, and those flaws in the kicking game for the Rams. The inability to close the game for the Rams while the Bears are comeback kings. Ben Johnson’s willingness to go for fourth downs while McVay, at his core, is still likely to be on the conservative side in the biggest moments.
There’s also the fact that teams who are a 3-point underdog or more at home in the divisional round are 7-3 SU. Granted, only one of those games happened since 2000, and it was when a team had a bye week advantage. But the last 20 home underdogs of 3+ points in any playoff round are 8-12 SU and 13-6-1 ATS.
I would definitely not endorse the Rams ML (-205 at FanDuel) as a good bet this week. You can get better odds with a Kyren Williams touchdown (+125), because if the Rams are going to win this one on the road in the cold, they need to run the ball well.
But I think like the other game in the NFC this weekend, I’d take the underdog with the points (Bears +3.5). The odds are against Chicago continuing to win these close games, but if there was an opponent built to self-destruct in such a game, it’d be these Rams this year.
Should be a good one, and I’ll end with one final statistic: In playoff games where the temperature is 15 degrees or lower, the home team has lost by more than 3 points in just 2-of-25 games.
They’re 15-10 SU but eight of the 10 losses were by 1-3 points. Just hope the Bears don’t do this again as they have one of the two losses by 4+ points in this split in the 1987 NFC divisional round.
Related Articles:
- Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: 2025 Wild Card Weekend
- 2025 AFC Wild Card Preview: Without the Chiefs and Ravens, Things Feel Wide Open This Year
- 2025 NFC Wild Card Preview: Are We Sleeping on the Philadelphia Eagles Repeating?
- 2025 NFL Fraud Alert Rating: Should We Trust the Bears and Patriots in the Playoffs?
- 2025 Final NFL Quarterback Rankings: Matthew Stafford Is the MVP
