UEFA Nations League A Round 3 Preview: Form, Lineups & Scores
Round 2 of the UEFA Nations League sorted the early noise. France and Portugal sit on perfect sixes, Greece still lead Group 2, and Spain’s 4-1 dismissal of Croatia made Group 3 look like a one-horse race. Round 3 is the mid-window stress test: eight fixtures across three days, with leaders asked to turn a cushion into control and the chasing pack still hunting a first real rhythm of the campaign.
Table of Contents
League A tables after Matchday 2
Round 3 match previews
Wales vs Norway
1 October · Cardiff City Stadium, Wales
Wales are still looking for a first point after losses in Lisbon and Copenhagen, and Cardiff becomes the first real chance to land a blow in Group 4. Craig Bellamy’s probable 4-2-3-1 keeps Ethan Ampadu as the midfield anchor, with Brennan Johnson and Daniel James asked to stretch Norway’s back line and Kieffer Moore as the aerial reference. Over their last five, Wales average 1.8 goals and 1.47 expected goals, numbers that sit almost level with Norway’s underlying clip even if the Nations League scoresheet still reads blank.
Norway arrive after a 1-2 home defeat to Portugal that dropped them off the Group 4 summit. Erling Haaland and Martin Ødegaard remain the spine, Antonio Nusa stays wide, and Andreas Schjelderup steps into the front three with Oscar Bobb among the substitutes. Norway’s last-five profile still screams chaos in both boxes: goals in every game (BTTS 100%) and a 60% win rate. The professional matchup is Welsh transition speed against Norwegian vertical quality through Haaland; Cardiff’s crowd is the equalizer Wales have to turn into territorial spells.
Probable lineups
- Wales (4-2-3-1): Ward; N. Williams, Davies, Mepham, Roberts; Savage, Ampadu; Thomas, Johnson, D. James; Moore
- Norway (4-3-3): Nyland; Ryerson, Heggem, Ajer, Aursnes; Berg, Berge, Ødegaard; Nusa, Haaland, Schjelderup
Projected score: Wales 1-2 Norway
The Stat: Norway have seen both teams score in 100% of their last five; Wales only 40%.
Denmark vs Portugal
1 October · Parken, Denmark
Denmark responded to the Oslo opener with a 2-0 win over Wales and now host the group leaders. The injury sheet is still heavy: Andreas Christensen, Alexander Bah, Kasper Dolberg, and Albert Grønbaek are all out, so Brian Riemer’s probable 4-2-3-1 again leans on Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg and Morten Hjulmand behind Rasmus Højlund, with Mikkel Damsgaard as the creator and Gustav Isaksen plus Mohammed Daramy as the wide outlets. Denmark’s last-five scoring (2.2 goals) and 1.77 xG are the loudest home underlying numbers on this Group 4 doubleheader.
Portugal made the statement win of Round 2 in Oslo (2-1) and sit alone on six points. Bruno Fernandes is only doubtful, so the projected shape shifts to a 4-4-2 with João Félix and Gonçalo Ramos through the middle and Pedro Neto plus Francisco Conceição wide; Cristiano Ronaldo is listed among the substitutes in the current probable XI. Ruben Dias and Nuno Mendes keep the defensive floor high. Parken will ask Portugal to manage territory without their usual creator-in-chief, while Denmark chase the result that would yank Group 4 back into a three-way scramble.
Probable lineups
- Denmark (4-2-3-1): Jørgensen; Dorgu, Provstgaard, Andersen, Kristensen; Hojbjerg, Hjulmand; Daramy, Damsgaard, Isaksen; Højlund
- Portugal (4-4-2): Diogo Costa; Nuno Mendes, Renato Veiga, Rúben Dias, Cancelo; Neto, João Neves, Palhinha, Conceição; Ramos, Félix
Projected score: Denmark 1-2 Portugal
The Stat: Denmark average 2.2 goals across their last five; Portugal’s same window sits at 1.0.
Greece vs Netherlands
1 October · Stadio Toumbas, Greece
The Group 2 summit meeting. Greece are perfect after Belgrade and Augsburg (2-1, then 1-0 away at Germany); Netherlands followed the Germany draw with a 2-1 win in Serbia and sit four points behind only on paper. Vangelis Pavlidis leads Ivan Jovanović’s line beside Andrews Tetteh, with Christos Tzolis and Konstantinos Karetsas carrying the creative load in a probable 4-4-2. Greece’s last-five win rate matches the Oranje at 60%, even if the raw scoring clip (1.4) trails Dutch output.
Netherlands travel without Cody Gakpo, Donyell Malen, and Justin Kluivert, so the front three reshuffles around Ruben van Bommel, Mexx Meerdink, and Crysencio Summerville. Virgil van Dijk anchors a back line with Micky van de Ven and Jan Paul van Hecke, and the midfield projects through Tijjani Reijnders, Joey Veerman, and Ryan Gravenberch. Toumbas rewards compact home blocks that punch on the break; Netherlands will try to turn the game into a territorial possession exercise and trust their 2.4 goals-per-game clip over five to eventually tell.
Probable lineups
- Greece (4-4-2): Tzolakis; Tsimikas, Mavropanos, Retsos, Vagiannidis; Tzolis, Zafeiris, Androutsos, Karetsas; Tetteh, Pavlidis
- Netherlands (4-3-3): Verbruggen; van de Ven, van Dijk, van Hecke, Dumfries; Reijnders, Veerman, Gravenberch; van Bommel, Meerdink, Summerville
Projected score: Greece 1-1 Netherlands
The Stat: Netherlands average 2.4 goals and a 100% BTTS rate across their last five; Greece’s xG (1.51) sits below the Dutch 2.05.
Germany vs Serbia
1 October · Allianz Arena, Germany
Germany are still searching for a first win after the Netherlands draw and a 0-1 home loss to Greece, and Munich becomes a must-response night under Jürgen Klopp. Jamal Musiala, Kai Havertz, and Brajan Gruda remain missing, so the probable 4-2-3-1 runs through Aleksandar Pavlović and Vitaly Janelt with Florian Wirtz as the creator and Jonathan Burkardt leading the line. Germany’s last-five scoring has cooled to 1.0 goal and 1.18 xG, the softest underlying attack profile among League A hosts this round.
Serbia are winless after defeats to Greece and the Netherlands, and Dušan Vlahović is still missing. Veljko Paunović’s projected XI puts Dejan Joveljić up top with Sergej Milinković-Savić and Andrija Živković as the wide-to-central creators in a 4-2-3-1. Serbia’s 1.48 xG over five actually edges Germany’s, which keeps this from reading like a routine home reset. The professional storyline is urgency versus damage limitation: Germany need the Allianz platform to look like hierarchy again; Serbia need a first point before the group hardens against them.
Probable lineups
- Germany (4-2-3-1): Atubolu; Raum, Thiaw, Anton, Baku; Pavlović, Janelt; Wirtz, Bischof, Adeyemi; Burkardt
- Serbia (4-2-3-1): V. Milinković-Savić; Terzić, Pavlović, Babić, Nedeljković; Lukić, Gudelj; S. Milinković-Savić, Stanković, Živković; Joveljić
Projected score: Germany 2-1 Serbia
The Stat: Both sides have seen BTTS in 80% of their last five, despite Germany’s 20% win rate in that window.
France vs Italy
2 October · Stade de France, France
Group 1’s clearest statement fixture. France are perfect after wins in Türkiye and Brussels; Italy answered their Rome opener with a 4-1 thrashing of Türkiye and sit level with Belgium on three points. Kylian Mbappé (knee) and Warren Zaïre-Emery remain missing, Ibrahima Konaté is doubtful, and the probable 4-3-3 reshuffles around Michael Olise, Désiré Doué, and Esteban Lepaul, with Eduardo Camavinga in midfield and Mike Maignan in goal. France still average 1.72 xG across their last five and a 60% win rate.
Italy travel without Federico Dimarco, Bryan Cristante, and Nicolò Zaniolo. Roberto Mancini’s projected 4-3-3 leans on Sandro Tonali and Davide Frattesi in midfield with Pio Esposito through the middle and Giacomo Raspadori plus Sebastiano Esposito as supporting attackers. Recent scoring rates are identical (1.6 goals each over five), but France’s defensive floor and home platform make this the night Italy have to prove the Türkiye result was a true reset rather than a one-off explosion.
Probable lineups
- France (4-3-3): Maignan; Diouf, Lacroix, Jacquet, Kalulu; Da Cunha, Camavinga, Akliouche; Doué, Lepaul, Olise
- Italy (4-3-3): Donnarumma; Ruggeri, Bastoni, Scalvini, Kayode; Fagioli, Tonali, Frattesi; S. Esposito, P. Esposito, Raspadori
Projected score: France 2-1 Italy
The Stat: France’s 1.72 xG over five edges Italy’s 1.43, and Les Bleus have kept BTTS down to 20% in that window.
Belgium vs Türkiye
2 October · Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Belgium
Belgium dropped their first points of the campaign in a 0-1 home loss to France and now need a response against a Türkiye side still on zero. Kevin De Bruyne remains the tactical hub in a probable 4-2-3-1, with Roméo Lavia and Youri Tielemans as the double pivot and Charles De Ketelaere supporting from the ten. Alexis Saelemaekers and Leandro Trossard are missing. Belgium’s last-five scoring (1.8 goals) dwarfs Türkiye’s 0.8.
Türkiye have lost to France and Italy and travel with Vincenzo Montella’s probable 3-4-3 built around Arda Güler and Can Uzun behind Barış Yılmaz, with Orkun Kökçü back available in midfield. The underlying picture is awkward for the visitors: Türkiye’s 1.58 xG over five actually tops Belgium’s 1.34, but the finished scoresheet has not followed. Liège should be about Belgian control and chance quality versus Turkish transitional punches; another blank would leave Montella’s side staring at an early relegation scrap.
Probable lineups
- Belgium (4-2-3-1): Lammens; Seys, Mechele, Ngoy, Castagne; Tielemans, Lavia; Godts, De Bruyne, Lukebakio; De Ketelaere
- Türkiye (3-4-3): Çakır; Kabak, Demiral, Çelik; Elmalı, Özcan, Kökçü, Aydın; Uzun, Yılmaz, Güler
Projected score: Belgium 2-0 Türkiye
The Stat: Belgium average 1.8 goals across their last five; Türkiye’s scoring clip in the same window is 0.8.
Croatia vs England
3 October · Stadion HNK Rijeka, Croatia
Group 3’s chase match. Croatia were blown away 4-1 in Seville and need a home reset; England answered the Spain opener with a 2-0 win in Prague and sit second on three points. Probable elevens are not yet posted for this fixture. Josip Juranović and Martin Erlić are listed as missing for Croatia, while Nico O’Reilly is missing for England.
The form window still tilts toward Thomas Tuchel’s side: England average 2.4 goals across their last five against Croatia’s 1.4, and the xG gap (1.25 vs 1.1) is narrower than the raw scoring suggests. Rijeka’s tighter venue rewards compact mid-blocks and set-piece detail, which is Croatia’s clearest path back into the Spain chase. England will treat it as a control-away night: keep the ball moving through Jude Bellingham and Bukayo Saka’s lanes, and force Croatia to chase the game after the Seville hangover.
Projected score: Croatia 1-2 England
The Stat: England average 2.4 goals in their last five; Croatia’s win rate in that window is 60%, but the scoring clip is a full goal lower.
Spain vs Czechia
3 October · Estadio Municipal Carlos Tartiere, Spain
Spain are the competition’s clearest early frontrunners after beating England 3-2 and Croatia 4-1, and Czechia arrive still winless. Probable elevens are not yet locked for this tie. Pedro Porro and Eric García are missing for Spain; David Zima is out for Czechia and Adam Karabec is doubtful.
The underlying gap is the widest on the Round 3 slate. Spain average 2.2 goals and 1.91 xG across their last five with an 80% win rate; Czechia sit at 0.6 goals, 0.72 xG, and a 0% win rate in the same window. Luis de la Fuente’s side should treat Oviedo as a professional possession night: pin Czechia deep, rotate the half-space creators, and turn territorial dominance into another goal-difference swing. For Santi Denia’s group, the brief is survival minutes and a set-piece moment that at least disrupts Spain’s perfect start.
Projected score: Spain 3-0 Czechia
The Stat: Spain have won 80% of their last five; Czechia have won none (0%), and the xG gap is 1.91 to 0.72.
What Round 3 decides
Three threads define the window:
- Leaders under pressure. France, Greece, Spain, and Portugal all sit on six points. A slip in Paris, Toumbas, Oviedo, or Copenhagen would reopen groups that currently look settled at the top.
- Group 2’s real race. Greece vs Netherlands is the clearest table-shaping match of the round; Germany vs Serbia is the bottom-half pressure valve sitting underneath it.
- Fitness still rewriting elevens. Mbappé, Musiala, Gakpo, Vlahović, and Christensen missing means several projected XIs remain Plan B sides even three matchdays in.
League A Round 3 will not finish the story. It will show which perfect starts were structural, and which were just a hot opening fortnight.
FAQs
When is UEFA Nations League League A Round 3?
League A Round 3 runs across 1-3 October 2026, with four fixtures on 1 October, two on 2 October, and two on 3 October.
Which UEFA Nations League League A games are this round?
Wales vs Norway, Denmark vs Portugal, Greece vs Netherlands, Germany vs Serbia, France vs Italy, Belgium vs Türkiye, Croatia vs England, and Spain vs Czechia.
Who is top of UEFA Nations League League A after Matchday 2?
Group leaders are France (Group 1), Greece (Group 2), Spain (Group 3), and Portugal (Group 4), all on six points.
How does UEFA Nations League League A qualification work?
Group winners advance toward the Nations League Finals path, while bottom sides face relegation playoff or drop pressure depending on the edition’s exact format. After two matchdays, France, Greece, Spain, and Portugal hold the clearest early advantages.
Why is Kylian Mbappé missing for France?
Mbappé is listed as missing with a knee issue, so France’s probable attack is built around Olise, Doué, and Lepaul.
Which League A Round 3 match looks the most evenly matched?
Greece vs Netherlands is the clearest even game on paper: Greece lead Group 2 on six points, Netherlands sit second on four, and both enter Round 3 unbeaten.
