As Roma and Napoli prepare to face off today, the stakes feel higher than they have in years. What was once a regional rivalry has transformed into a duel between two teams at the pinnacle of Italian football. With Roma sitting in 2nd and Napoli in 3rd, this matchup serves as a warning to the rest of the league that neither side can afford to ignore, a third of the way through this Serie A season.
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History of the Clubs
Napoli was founded in 1926, while Roma was founded just a year later, in 1927. They entered the Serie A simultaneously, each representing major cities in central and southern Italy. In the 1980s and early 1990s, Argentinian superstar Diego Maradona led Napoli to 2 Scudettos and went a stretch of 5 years competing in Europe. In this same time period, Roma were either on the outskirts looking in or qualifying on the fringe for the UEFA Cup, now labeled the UEFA Europa League.
During Juventus‘ run of 9 straight Serie A titles in the 2010s, the Napoli teams constructed around Hamsik, Cavani, and Higuain, along with the Roma teams including Totti, Nainggolan, and Salah, were common title contenders, often finishing in the top 4 but unfortunately falling short. This included Napoli winning 2-1 in the 2012 Coppa Italia Final, a rare matchup between these clubs in cup competitions. In recent years, these clubs have remained on form, with Napoli winning the Serie A in 2022-23 and 2024-25 and Roma winning the inaugural UEFA Conference League in 2022, along with making the Europa League final in 2023.
Current Form
Roma were at the top of the Serie A until AC Milan overtook them last night with a win over Lazio, but their 9-0-3 record is a strong sign of a contending side. However, they have a tendency to lose the important matchups, defeated by Milan and Inter 1-0 earlier this season. Napoli’s 8-1-3 record places them in 3rd in the table, with their experience of their 2 titles, along with new additions, positioning them well to win the title. However, competing in the Supercoppa, Coppa Italia, and the Champions League might lead to stretching their team thin due to minutes restrictions or injuries.
Key Players for Tonight
Roma
Paulo Dybala (if healthy) remains as Roma’s creative engine with his vision, dribbling, and ability to attack. Playing more as an attacking midfielder behind a striker like Evan Ferguson gives him space to drift between the midfield and attackers can shift the shape of the defensive line. Matias Soule has been a breakout player this season, leading i Lupi in both goals and assists this season. His connection with Dybala this season has been special and decisive in transition this season. Finally, Gianluca Mancini has been more than just a center-back; he’s been a leader and responsible for conceding 6 goals in 12 matches.
Napoli
Scott McTominay, with his form for both Napoli and Scotland, has been unreal, leading with his intensity and attacking energy, along with his counterattacking presence, which must be noted. His ability to feed Rasmus Hojlund is important as well, as he poses an aerial threat with relentless movement behind defenses. He will likely force the defensive line back and create problems for Mancini, along with making space for players such as McTominay. Alessandro Buongiorno will be responsible for Napoli’s discipline and positioning against Roma’s attacking pieces; his timing and composure will be crucial.
Notable Players Missing
The matchip tonight was already intense, played between two title contenders separated by fine margins. However, injured players will shape the way that both teams play.
Kevin De Bruyne
His arrival in the Serie A was a bombshell, partnering McTominay in a deadly midfield for Napoli, infusing his vision and creativity into the side. They lose De Bruyne’s elite chance creation and set-piece precision with him out this week, along with him playing the game at his own pace being integral for Napoli’s success. A truly irreplaceable player.
Artem Dovbyk
One of the Serie A’s strongest and most experienced targets in attacking defensive lines, Dovbyk would be challenging center-backs along with being a tough aerial threat for players such as Mancini. This makes the gameplan more reliant on Soule and Dybala rather than feeding a physical presence. This might get shifted to Evan Ferguson, but his 365Scores Average Impact Rating is lower as well.
Frank Anguissa
A defensive presence in midfield, harbouring the highest 365Scores Average Impact Rating across both teams this season. His ability to win defensive duels and maintain possession will be missed, with Roma excited to overload central zones where Anguissa would usually cover and the attacking midfield duo will have more freedom to create, a potentially scary sight.
The Coaching Clash
The face-off tonight will not only be between the 11 players on the field, but it will be between the masterminds behind the game plans. Antonio Conte leads Napoli with structure and maintains possession, with discipline against Roma’s attacking pieces being integral to their success tonight. Gian Piero Gasperini’s style is unique in that he commands aggressive defensive lines and has the courage to trust his players with coin-toss interactions that more conservative managers wouldn’t. He will try to look early to his attacking players, such as Soule and Dybala, and will counterattack within 3 passes after regaining possession.
Integral Battles for the Matchup
Napoli have been coached to be disciplined, with McTominay being integral to winning central duels. If these interior battles are won by Roma, Dybala will have excess space to create. Gasperini’s backline will push up higher, taking more risky 1-on-1 battles, which will hopefully deter Hojlund from scoring. However, Conte’s backline will sit deeper and more structured, playing a higher percentage brand of football. These midfield battles and the determination from the defensive line will dictate the pathway of the game.
Prediction: Napoli 1-0 Roma
The prediction will go against the history and the bookmakers, but we think that Napoli will defeat Roma tonight. Roma has won 1 of their last 11 matches against Napoli, combined with 2 of their 3 losses this season coming against top 4 sides in Milan and Inter. Roma do play at home, and they are on a 4-game win streak, so we expect it to be close. Due to Gasperini’s high and risky defensive line, Hojlund is our pick to open the scoreline.
