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Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Super Bowl 60

Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar06/02/2026 - 03:12 pm
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON - JANUARY 25: Cooper Kupp #10 of the Seattle Seahawks stands on the sidelines during the national anthem prior to the NFC Championship NFL football game against the Los Angeles Rams at Lumen Field on January 25, 2026 in Seattle, Washington.
(Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)

If you cover the NFL, you’re beyond tired of trying to hype up the Super Bowl at this point. Let’s just get to Sunday already with Seahawks vs. Patriots. But after doing a 7,300-word Super Bowl preview and supporting stories on Sam Darnold and the worst Super Bowl teams the last two weeks, I’m happy to drop the final batch of NFL picks on the 2025 season for Super Bowl 60.

In recapping our Championship Game picks, I’m calling it a success when we got our most confident pick (Jarrett Stidham’s rushing over) and biggest longshot (+1330 touchdown scorer parlay with Drake Maye, Kenneth Walker, and Puka Nacua) correct. Good enough for that slate that feels like eons ago.

For the Super Bowl, no novelty props for me, though I got a good laugh out of BetOnline offering very real odds (and many choices) for which massage parlor Patriots owner Robert Kraft will visit first. But instead of the usual seven picks, this is more of a collection of seven categories of picks with multiple things I like in this one. After spending so much time on this matchup, I’ve come to like quite a few angles that I couldn’t fit them all into just seven picks.

Besides, it’s the Super Bowl. You won’t get another meaningful football game until September. Live a little but don’t go homeless over a Super Bowl between Drake Maye and Sam Darnold. This feels like a “One Night Only” event but we can get into that next week with a long offseason ahead.

1. The Slow Start for Both Teams

It’s become so rare to see young quarterbacks making their first Super Bowl start because of how many of these games have been started by Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Patrick Mahomes over the last 25 years. This is only the third Super Bowl in the last 25 seasons between quarterbacks in their twenties who were making their first Super Bowl start:

I think you’re going to see some shaky play early, some real conservative play as the teams feel each other out, and I already said in the big preview that the under 45.5 was my favorite core bet in this game.

But I think with nerves likely having an effect on these teams and quarterbacks, you’re going to see a low-scoring start to the game. That’s why I like all of these game props ranked in order of most to least confident:

  1. Both Teams to Score in 1st Quarter – No (-175) at Bet365
  2. 1st Quarter Total Under 8.5 (-134) at FanDuel
  3. 1st Quarter Total Under 7.5 (-110) at Bet365
  4. 1st Half Total Under 21.5 (-105) at Bet365
  5. Both Teams to Throw an Interception (+180) at FanDuel

Let’s not forget, Josh McDaniels and Tom Brady never scored a first-quarter touchdown in nine Super Bowls together. What’s he going to get with Drake Maye, who’s had a poor postseason and is trying to become the youngest quarterback (23) to win a Super Bowl? Then you have Darnold in the absolute biggest game of his life against an unfamiliar defense that’s playing very well. Remember, Darnold has largely been playing NFC West rematches since mid-December.

FOXBOROUGH, MA - NOVEMBER 24: Tom Brady #12 talks to head coach Bill Belichick of the New England Patriots before a game against the Dallas Cowboys at Gillette Stadium on November 24, 2019 in Foxborough, Massachusetts.
(Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images)

I think barring return scores and short fields from turnovers, you’re going to see a lot of early stops and not much scoring here. I also like both quarterbacks to get picked off as I think they’ll get confused by these defenses.

Also, this doesn’t necessarily fit into any category, but I wanted to point out a DraftKings game prop I really like in Seattle to have the higher time of possession (-145 at DraftKings). They’ll likely rely more on longer drives while the Patriots will try to get bigger chunks and mix three-and-outs with those explosive plays. So, I think Seattle excels better on third down and has more time of possession by game’s end.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Most Time of Possession – Seahawks (-145) at DraftKings

2. Is This a Secondary Receiver Night?

Some Super Bowls have skill players with a lot of yards on their over/under lines, but this is not one of them. Jaxon Smith-Njiba’s line is 93.5, and the next closest player is Stefon Diggs at 43.5. They are the veterans and the most trusted receivers in this game.

But I think the Patriots try to use Christian Gonzalez as much as possible on JSN, which should help free up other guys. That’s why I like Cooper Kupp a lot in this game to produce like he has in both playoff games and he is a former Super Bowl MVP with the Rams just four seasons ago. Give me the following props in a heartbeat for him:

  • Cooper Kupp Over 32.5 Receiving Yards (-110) at FanDuel
  • Cooper Kupp Over 2.5 Receptions (-172) at FanDuel
  • Cooper Kupp Over 1.5 1st Quarter Receiving Yards (-114) at FanDuel

On the other side, Kayson Boutte is Drake Maye’s best deep threat and WR2 behind Diggs. In the NFC Championship Game, the Seahawks allowed 226 passing yards on deep passes, the most by any defense in a playoff game since at least 2016. I know Maye’s deep ball has been off, but in clear weather and with safety Nick Emmanwori banged up in practice this week, I think the Patriots will try to get some deep shots going in this one.

While I don’t buy into the popular theory that the Patriots are getting blown out in this game, if they do go down big, then throwing more and throwing deep should be even more prevalent. But that’s why I like a lot of the props for New England receivers (plus one Seahawk) to go over on their longest reception of the night. I like this more than their traditional over or under receiving yard or reception bets (ranked again in confidence order)

  1. Kayshon Boutte Longest Reception Over 17.5 Yards (-118) at FanDuel
  2. Hunter Henry Longest Reception Over 17.5 Yards (-114) at FanDuel
  3. Rashid Shaheed (Seahawks) Longest Reception Over 14.5 Yards (-118) at FanDuel
  4. Mack Hollins Longest Reception Over 14.5 Yards (-114) at FanDuel

3. The Sacks

Sacks have been a big part of this New England season, and the story is the historic manner in which the Patriots have overcome them to get this far. Drake Maye has taken 5.0 sacks in each playoff game and yet they still keep winning because of their defense.

FanDuel has some special game props on sacks that I really like in this matchup, and let’s not forget the New England pass rush can get after Sam Darnold too:

  • Team to Record Most Sacks – Seahawks (-192) or Patriots (+144) – This would be a stunner if it’s not Seattle given the Patriots have allowed the second-most sacks (15) in playoff history.
  • Total Sacks O/U 5.5 (-113) – Have to hammer the over here for reasons just mentioned with the 15 sacks suffered by the Patriots while their pass rush, especially in the interior, can make Darnold add to the total.
  • Total Sacks by Seattle Defense Over 3.5 Sacks (+126) – Again, 15 sacks in three playoff games is an embarrassing number, and the record for one postseason is 19 allowed by the 2021 Bengals in four games, so the Patriots are in solid shape to tie or break that record.
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON - JANUARY 17: Sam Darnold #14 of the Seattle Seahawks stands on the field with his teammates during the second quarter of an NFL divisional playoff football game against the San Francisco 49ers at Lumen Field on January 17, 2026 in Seattle, Washington.
(Photo by Brooke Sutton/Getty Images)

As for some specific defensive players to get sacks, here are some of my favorite picks:

  • DeMarcus Lawrence (+120 at FanDuel): You have to go with the ex-Cowboy getting a sack in the Super Bowl in a year where Jerry Jones traded Micah Parsons to Green Bay. Just fits.
  • Milton Williams (+194 at FanDuel): He had 2.0 sacks in last year’s Super Bowl against Kansas City and 2.0 sacks against the Chargers to start this postseason. This is what the Patriots paid him for. Go get another.
  • Byron Murphy (+172 at FanDuel): Breakout season for Seattle’s interior lineman, who should get a shot to do some damage next to Leonard Williams. Going with the higher odds over Williams (+142) here.

4. NFL Picks for Touchdown Props

You know the expectations may be low for scoring when the top three in touchdown scorer odds are Kenneth Walker (-195), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (-110), and Rhamondre Stevenson (+135). Only two players better than +135? Ouch. That Walker number is quite high, but I get it with Zach Charbonnet (ACL) out for the year.

But let’s float out a few ideas for value picks:

  • Cooper Kupp Anytime TD Scorer (+260 at FanDuel): He’s done it before in a Super Bowl and he had one last week against the Rams. Crafty veteran knows how to get it done in big games.
  • Drake Maye Anytime TD Scorer (+270 at FanDuel): Called it last game out in Denver, the young quarterback trusting his legs on a scramble instead of forcing a throw. I think he can repeat that here.
  • Mack Hollins Anytime TD Scorer (+430 at FanDuel): Big target with plenty of system experience and a guy you’d forget about down there being more worried about Diggs, Henry, and Maye’s legs. I think he’s a sneaky value pick here.

But here’s a pick I really like at FanDuel where you can get +210 odds for any defensive or special teams touchdown to be scored in the game. Doesn’t matter which team gets it, and both are more than capable as the Seahawks (7) and Patriots (6) have combined for 13 return scores this year, including one each in the playoffs.

Hell, this might even be the first Super Bowl in 60 tries with a punt return touchdown as Rashid Shaheed (Seahawks) and Marcus Jones (Patriots) are plenty capable of that.

Scott’s Top NFL Pick: Any Defensive or Special Teams TD in the Game (+210) at FanDuel

5. Super Bowl MVP Picks

What do we know about the Super Bowl MVP award? Except for Super Bowl V, it goes to someone on the winning team, and 34-of-59 times it’s gone to the quarterback. Go figure, Sam Darnold (+115 at FanDuel) and Drake Maye (+230) are the favorites to win Super Bowl 60 MVP.

But I honestly wouldn’t bet on either quarterback.

For starters, you can get better odds (+130 at FanDuel) on a parlay of Seattle ML + Sam Darnold over 1.5 passing touchdowns, which you have to figure is a bare minimum formula for Darnold winning this thing. That’s not good value.

But I think this is a game where quarterback play won’t be great and it’s going to be up to which defense shines the most that wins the game. So, I’m fading the quarterbacks for MVP picks. Instead, these are my best value picks for Super Bowl 60 MVP:

  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+550 at FanDuel): Has the clout as the reigning Offensive Player of the Year to upstage his quarterback and have the majority of his passing production in a huge game.
  • Rashid Shaheed (+3000 at DraftKings): What if he has a special teams return touchdown (punt return would be first in Super Bowl history) and a deep ball catch on offense too? Could be enough in a low-scoring win if Seattle wins. A Desmond Howard type of MVP.
  • Christian Gonzalez (+10000 at DraftKings): Probably needs a pick, if not a pick-six, for this to work, but I think he has dark horse value if he can dominate the JSN matchup and bait Darnold into a big interception.

But even more than those, I like these bets where you can bet on the field or different positions to win Super Bowl 60 MVP:

  • Super Bowl MVP – Quarterback or the Field – Any Other Position (+200) at BetRivers
  • Super Bowl MVP – Position of Winner – Any Defensive Player (+1200) at BetRivers

Again, defense wins championships, and I think a defensive player (Gonzalez, Marcus Jones, Milton Williams, DeMarcus Lawrence, Leonard Williams, Nick Emmanwori, etc.) has a real shot at MVP in this matchup.

6. The Super Bowl-Winning Game Scripts

In the interest of fairness, I’ve prepared a winning game script parlay for each team. These are low-risk, high-reward plays you can throw a few bucks on with things that should be conducive in producing a win for these teams in the big game.

The Seattle Game Script (7 Legs, +4394 on FanDuel): Focuses on their top players finding the end zone, their top sack artists winning, Kupp producing, and JSN making a 20-yard grab and scoring a touchdown.

Seattle Seahawks Super Bowl Game Script

The New England Game Script (7 Legs, +5500 not boosted on BetRivers): The one where Sam Darnold throws a pick parade with multiple interceptions as he has to throw the ball 35+ times because of an ineffective running game. Drake Maye and Rhamondre Stevenson power the running game, and Kayshon Boutte puts up at least 30 yards while Maye hits a big play (longest completion over 33.5 yards).

New England Patriots Super Bowl Script NFL Picks

7. Super Bowl 60 Parlay

Finally, to end this 2025 NFL season, here’s an 8-leg parlay with roughly +13500 odds on some of my favorite picks for this Super Bowl, many of which we went over above:

  • Patriots +7.5 Alternate Spread (haven’t lost by more than 7 points all season)
  • Under 45.5 (under is 5-2 in last seven Super Bowls)
  • Cooper Kupp Over 32.5 Receiving Yards
  • Kayshon Boutte Longest Reception Over 17.5 Yards
  • Mack Hollins to Record a 10+ Yard Reception
  • Drake Maye 30+ Rushing Yards
  • Milton Williams to record a Sack
  • DeMarcus Lawrence to record a Sack

The two new additions from the NFC East get sacks.

Enjoy the Super Bowl.

Scott’s NFL Pick: 8-Leg Parlay (+13523) at FanDuel

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Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar06/02/2026 - 03:12 pm